Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 2: Buy These Dips

Never Too Early to Work on Your Team

I bet I know something we both hate: Those long stories that precede an online recipe.

Nobody cares what these biscuits mean to you, Judith. Just tell me how to make them.

This weekly Trade Targets article is similar to a recipe post. I’m trying to provide the ingredients for a successful season, and I don’t want to bog you down with lead-in.

So let me repeat these three principles from last year’s opening Trade Targets run, and then we’ll get to the players:

1. Don’t overreact to the Week 1 results.
2. Try to glean what we might have learned from those results.
3. Take advantage of the overreactors in your league.

Here we go.

Week 2 Buys

• Colston Loveland
• Terry McLaurin

Week 2 Sells

• David Montgomery
• Patrick Mahomes

Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

I’m not digging too deep off one week of data, but these initial disappointments deserve a price check.

Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears

Anyone who had Bears in their fantasy lineups and wasn’t watching this game closely had to get excited by the sheer frequency of TD updates. 59 points?!? That’s gotta mean everybody ate … right?

Not Loveland.

The runner-up in our summer Breakouts article got just 2 targets against the Panthers, caught neither of them, and even had to watch TE Cole Kmet snag the team’s first scoring pass of the year.

And while Loveland posted a zero, 16 other TEs delivered 10+ PPR points in Week 1. That enhances the frustration for Loveland managers and increases the likelihood that those folks are either holding a TE who outscored him or seeking such a player on waivers this week.

And that boosts our chances of stealing a potential difference maker.

Week 1 Didn’t Go as Poorly as You Think

Loveland didn’t draw many targets, but he barely left the field. His 89% route rate led all Week 1 TEs. That also marked a slight climb even from the 80% route rate that Loveland ran over his final five games last season -- you know, the stretch in which he averaged 16.8 PPR points per game and got us all excited.

From Jared’s Week 1 usage article: “Give Loveland last year’s 0.22 targets per route on the 34 routes he ran vs. Carolina, and he comes away with 7.6 targets.”

Low-target games for high-participation pass catchers happen. (Like with the next guy in this list.) But the Bears didn’t draft Loveland 10th overall last year to distract defenses from Kmet and Kalif Raymond.

His opportunities and production are coming, especially in an offense that racked up 552 yards its first time out.

If you have one of those flimsier Week 1 scorers at TE -- say, Dallas Goedert -- consider packaging him with another player in a swap for Loveland and someone else … just to obscure your true goal of landing this stud.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

Ouch.

Not only did McLaurin go quiet in the Week 1 loss to Philadelphia; he made it worse by watching teammates Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams each double his catch total, more than double his yardage output, and score a TD apiece.

Now fantasy analysts and the general public are buzzing about Diggs and Williams while trying to forget McLaurin exists. So let’s repeat the “it’s just one week” mantra.

Do You Think the Offensive Plan Already Changed?

OC David Blough -- now famously -- said shortly after taking over the job that he’d be building his scheme “around how do we get Terry 10 targets a game and get him explosive receptions.”

Of course, he said that before the team drafted Williams and well before the team signed Diggs. But do you really think Blough spent the summer falling out of love with McLaurin and now considers him just a guy?

Blough spent the previous two years on Washington’s staff. That included 2024, when QB Jayden Daniels debuted and McLaurin finished seventh among WRs in total PPR points. So he’s directly familiar with the veteran wideout.

His first game as OC pitted Washington against a talented Philly D and one of the league’s most experienced and respected coordinators, Vic Fangio. 

Kinda makes sense that unit would focus primarily on limiting big plays between Daniels and McLaurin, right? And it worked. Daniels completed just 18 of 34 passes at 4.8 yards per attempt. And McLaurin went 2-14 receiving on 4 targets.

But he also ran a route on 92.1% of Daniels’ dropbacks, ranking seventh among all Week 1 wideouts. McLaurin ran 10 more routes than Diggs and 24 more routes than Williams, who also trailed WR Dyami Brown.

Here’s Why You Should Make the Move This Week

First, let me clarify something: McLaurin’s not a must-add. The OC words and route numbers above establish that he’s Washington’s lead WR, but he’s never been the same kind of true No. 1 “alpha” that some others around the league are. But that can also help trade conditions here.

McLaurin also didn’t carry that kind of hype during draft season, especially after Diggs arrived. He finished summer as WR26 in PPR consensus ADP and WR27 in best ball.

That’s WR3 territory. And a guy who opens the year at WR3 is less likely to be a player his managers cling to.

That grip could easily tighten, however, after a Week 2 visit to Dallas.

The Cowboys finished last season as the league’s friendliest matchup for WR scoring by a large margin. They added 33.4% to WR scoring, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed formula. The 11.5 percentage-point gap from Dallas to No. 2 Chicago was larger than the gap between Chicago and No. 7 New England.

This year’s Cowboys spent Week 1 allowing Jaxson Dart to complete 79.3% of his throws and toss 3 TD passes. A big McLaurin outing this week could shut your buy window.

Week 3 holds a tougher home date with Seattle, but then Washington gets a cushy Colts matchup in Week 4.

Sell These Players

We all want TDs, but sometimes they create illusions that you can exploit.

David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans

Wanna know the most haunting aspect of this job? When you tell someone to start a different player over the guy who then runs for 3 TDs. (Sorry, I don’t remember the specific player. It was one among many start-sit questions I hit in our weekly Sunday morning Reddit AMA.)

No amount of correct calls or reasoning why that player “shouldn’t” have scored so many fantasy points helps.

All you can do is move forward … and get back at Montgomery by pointing out the factors that make him a good Week 2 sell.

Montgomery Masked Some Bad News with Those TDs

We all expected Montgomery to lead Houston in carries. His 20 rushing attempts in the opener and drawing 3 of the team’s 4 RB targets make the guy look like a workhorse. But the playing-time split disagrees.

Woody Marks actually played one more snap and matched Montgomery at a 33% route rate. Montgomery tied for 33rd at the position in that category and ranked 34th in snap share. Though his carry share sits much higher (sixth, at 62.5%).

So how’d he do with those carries, besides the big TD total? Not great.

Here’s how he ranked among 34 RBs with 10+ carries in Week 1:

• 31st in yards per carry
• 25th rush yards over expected per carry (minus-0.41)
• 32nd in yards after contact per attempt
• 28th in PFF’s elusive rating

Marks didn’t carry enough to reach that qualifying mark, but he outperformed Montgomery across rushing categories.

“MTF” stands for missed tackles forced. Marks racking up five of those to Montgomery’s three on less than half as many rushing attempts is the kind of signal that can make coaches want to shift some carries across the split.

If Marks pulls touches away, Montgomery’s perceived value could tumble quickly.

Don’t Go Fire Sale with Montgomery

Now the qualifier: I’m not saying Montgomery’s carry lead will disappear in Week 2. And I’m not telling you to get rid of him now for whatever the best offer is.

Frankly, Montgomery has a shot to remain a good fantasy starter for at least the next four weeks with this strong set of matchups:

• vs. Cincinnati 
• at Indianapolis
• vs. Dallas
• at Tennessee

So why sell him now? Because even the best matchups aren’t likely to produce more 3-TD games. So there’s a chance you can find peak value this week. If you don’t, wait and try again next week.

The mistake would be expecting Montgomery to give you elite production the rest of the way.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

If you like football, then it was good to see Mahomes spring for a 15-yard TD run in the first quarter on Monday night, his first game since December’s ACL tear.

If you drafted Mahomes, then you have to like his QB10 finish for the week.

Now let’s try to move him.

The Problem Here is Obvious

Sometimes we need to dig beyond the obvious numbers to find the alarm in a player’s performance. Not so with Mahomes.

He completed just 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT in Monday night’s win over the Broncos. We should certainly factor in that Mahomes faced a defense that ranked fifth in total DVOA and 10th against the pass last year. 

Denver’s good, but far from impenetrable. The Broncos also ranked just 10th-toughest on QB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed last season. Good, not impassable.

Mahomes’ lone meeting with the Broncos last year included these numbers:

• 64.4% completions
• 7.2-yard average depth of target (per Pro Football Focus)
• 3.3 completed air yards per completion

Monday night?

• 55.6% completions
• 5.0-yard aDOT
• 1.2 completed air yards per completion

According to JJ Zachariason, Mahomes was the only Week 1 starter who didn’t complete a pass that traveled 10+ air yards (besides Kyler Murray, who left in the first quarter).

Mahomes’ TDs came on:

• A completion to Rashee Rice at the line of scrimmage that Rice took 13 yards into the end zone, and
• A forward pitch on a misdirection play to Kenneth Walker from the 2-yard line.

His pass-catching group doesn’t look any more helpful than last year

But … Isn’t Betting Against Mahomes a Bad Idea?

Here’s the thing: By looking to trade Mahomes right now, we’re not projecting that he’ll stink the rest of the way.

He got there fantasy-wise on Monday night. He got there fantasy-wise last season (fourth in fantasy points per game) with his rushing while dealing with injuries and meh play among his pass catchers.

I expect Mahomes will be fine. But lots of QBs are fine. That’s why we tend to wait on drafting them.

A “fine” QB with Mahomes’ name, however, has a decent chance at returning more than he’s worth on the trade market. And his depressed ADP this year means there’s a better chance you already have another solid QB option rostered.

Even if you don’t, consider including the Chiefs QB in a multi-player offer at the Drake Maye, Joe Burrow (if his back’s OK), or Dak Prescott manager in your league.

Now Find the Right Trade for YOUR Team

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