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Don’t Trust The Box Score: This Rookie WR Was Open All Game

Trust the Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers

Golden left Week 2 with two targets and no catches. His only fantasy points came on two rushes for 15 yards.

A first-round WR posting a receiving goose egg might suggest a talent problem, but the film tells a different story.

Golden’s film shows him winning deep, but Jordan Love underthrows him. This play highlights Golden’s burst, gaining 2 yards of separation. Love reads it correctly but doesn’t put enough air under the ball to lead Golden to a TD.

HC Matt LaFleur dialed up the right call against Cover-1, with the safety shaded to the opposite side. Golden wins the route despite a 5-yard cushion at the line of scrimmage. With more chemistry, this becomes a Love-to-Golden touchdown.

Golden runs a deep post against Cover-3, splitting double coverage. Love misses him again, with the throw just beyond Golden’s fingertips. The rookie may have slowed slightly as he turned back toward the line of scrimmage, which contributed to the miss. If the pass hits him in stride, it’s a touchdown.
This was also the only throw all game where Golden was the first read.

Golden ran several deep routes where he got open but wasn’t the first read. Often he wasn’t even the second.

On this play, he runs a post from the slot against man coverage. Golden gains a step, but Love doesn’t have time to throw deep.

Golden also found space on shorter routes. Here, he runs an in-cut with sharp footwork and separation. Again, he isn’t the first read and goes unnoticed.

Golden’s Routes Demand a Bigger Role in Packers’ Offense

In our rookie guide, I predicted Golden would be a bust. There’s no victory lap here. His Week 2 film shows a young player ready to break through.

Golden got open on nearly every route, even when the play was designed to go elsewhere. Love and Golden were just off on the deep ball. With better timing, Golden could have topped 100 yards with a touchdown or two. Those issues should improve with practice.

The main negative was his lack of first-read routes, but that can change if he keeps creating separation. I trust LaFleur to notice Golden’s success and adjust, especially after choosing Golden in the first round. They want him to become a first-read type of WR. Jayden Reed’s dual surgeries boost the chances of those first reads heading Golden’s way, as well as the rookie’s full-season target outlook.

He looks like an excellent buy-low candidate, with a high ceiling fueled by his deep threat ability and polished route running.

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Williams ended Week 2 with 108 yards and a touchdown. But that came on only two catches and four targets against a Bears secondary missing two cornerbacks.

The film raises concerns about Williams’ play and usage.

Williams’ strength is the deep ball, and this play shows it. The Bears cornerback expects safety help, but the safety moves inside on a crossing route. Williams’ speed makes it an an easy touchdown.

The rest of the game, though, Chicago largely neutralized him.

On this deep post, the Bears’ two-deep look creates double coverage and keeps Williams from breaking free. That opened opportunities for Amon-Ra St. Brown and the run game, while giving a clear template for limiting Williams.

When Williams ran shorter routes such as slants and digs, he struggled to separate. Jared Goff often moved quickly to his next read.

Near the goal line, Williams frequently ran drag routes like this one. He never settled into open zones, suggesting the design was more decoy than target. That limits his chances for red-zone touchdowns.

Williams’ Deep Threat Role Comes With Risk

Williams remains a useful fantasy WR and should keep operating as a deep threat. His 2-108-1 line is helpful, but the film reveals a skill set that depends almost entirely on speed.

Defenses can erase him. In the red zone, Williams looks like an afterthought.

Nothing so far suggests he’s developing into a more complete receiver, so expect volatility. That makes disappointing fantasy results likely against stronger defenses able to sit in two-deep coverage.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Njoku has been overshadowed by rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. so far this season.

But Njoku has outpaced Fannin in snaps and routes run.

On film, Njoku still looks like a top-10 NFL TE.

One of Njoku’s go-to routes has been the stick. He motions across the formation, catches a short pass, and gets pulled down. He excelled last year at breaking tackles on this play for extra yards -- or touchdowns near the goal line. That doesn’t happen here, but his footwork and timing with the ball make the route tough to defend.

Here’s another stick route against soft coverage. The ball doesn’t come his way, but Njoku knows when to settle into space. He remains a reliable checkdown when pressure forces quick throws.

Njoku also showed more versatility in Week 2. On this play, he finds a hole in Cover-3 and turns back to Joe Flacco while moving upfield for the long completion.

Even when not the target, Njoku helped free Fannin in “12” personnel. On this rub route, Njoku forces one Ravens defender into another, opening Fannin underneath. But a shot to Njoku in single coverage against a smaller CB would have carried more upside.

Expect Browns to Lean Into Njoku’s Strengths

Njoku still has the skills we’ve seen in recent years: 

• strong route running
• precise footwork
• and the awareness to find soft spots in coverage. 

He remains a steady part of the offense even as the Browns design plays for Fannin. Cleveland clearly values keeping Njoku involved and using him in combinations that fit his strengths.

Next Up

Pass Rate Over Expected Data - Week 6

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.