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Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Time to Steal Emeka Egbuka ... or Let Him Go?

Wide Variety of Targets This Week

Are you looking to make a big splash move that could define your season?

Or maybe you're happy with most of your roster and simply looking for a fringe players with the upside to deliver starter value over the second half?

Or trying to figure out which top early performer won't last?

Whatever your situation, this week's six highlighted players can help. Let's get to it.

Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

There's opportunity in targeting usage over production. And remember that rookies often take a while to pay off ...

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

What’s the record for that manager in your league that drafted London, probably in the first half of Round 2?

Unless that team’s undefeated, it’s probably lamenting a disappointing start that finds the Falcons wideout sitting 43rd among PPR scorers at the position. And frankly, an undefeated London team might be even more likely to view him as expendable.

Here’s why you should send that team an offer.

He’s Getting the Usage We Expected

First, there’s nothing wrong with his role. London sits tied for 12th among WRs in targets in an offense that ranks just 19th in pass attempts. He checks in ninth at the position in target share and sixth in first-read rate, according to Fantasy Points Data.

The gap between that usage and London’s actual scoring positions him fourth-highest in PPR points under expectation. London’s 5.6 points per game under expectation trails only:

• Brian Thomas Jr. (9.2)
• Xavier Legette (8.9)
• Chris Olave (8.3)

London racked up 15 targets in the opening loss to Tampa Bay but managed to catch just eight of those (53.3%) for 55 yards (6.9 per catch). Both those rates fell well below his career numbers.

The rates rebounded in Week 2, but London drew just four targets in a weird game at Minnesota that included only 21 Atlanta pass attempts. 

The Vikings finished last season first in pass-defense DVOA and rank ninth so far this season. They’re probably a negative passing matchup. But we can’t say the same for Atlanta’s next couple of foes.

Schedule Looks Friendly Next Two Weeks

Week 3 sends the Falcons to Carolina, where they sit tied of the eighth-highest projected team total on the week. WRs haven’t specifically blown up the Panthers yet, but Carolina has allowed 53 points in losses to the Jaguars and Cardinals.

Next come the Commanders, who have improved in both total and pass DVOA through two weeks vs. last year. But they ranked 23rd and 20th, respectively, in those categories last season.

That looks like a neutral matchup at the least. And even if a healthy Marshon Lattimore is generating the coverage boost, Atlanta’s tendency to move London around the formation should get him away from the lead corner plenty.

A Week 5 bye will allow London to rest the shoulder he hurt in Week 1. That can only help, though it doesn’t appear to be a big issue anyway. He returned to a full practice last Friday and carried no injury designation into the Sunday night game.

Don’t Forget How New His QB Is

Michael Penix Jr. halved his pass attempts from Week 1 to Week 2 (42 to 21) and watched his passing yards tumble from 298 to 135.

In addition to the tough Week 2 matchup at Minnesota, it’s worth noting that Penix has now started just five NFL games. He’s still developing, but the former eighth-overall pick has already flashed plenty of arm strength, an abnormally quick release, and good mobility.

Penix ranks 16th in Pro Football Focus passing grade among 34 QBs with at least 20 dropbacks this season, and it’s fair to expect that to improve.

Make an offer for his top target before all these factors come together to propel London’s production.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow’s (basically) season-ending injury obviously harms the whole Cincinnati offense. Pile that on top of Brown sitting just 24th among RB PPR scorers through two weeks, and he probably looks like player you should run away from.

So what’s he doing on this side?

It Starts with the Usage

Brown ranks fifth in the league in carries so far. He leads the league in carry share, taking 92.5% of Bengals rushing attempts through two games. The only three that didn’t go to him went to QBs.

Brown sits just 26th among RBs in target share, but even that 8.8% slice puts him ahead of players such as:

• James Cook
• Travis Etienne
• Jonathan Taylor
• Ashton Jeanty

Brown has tripled backfield mate Samaje Perine in targets (6-2) and leads him handily in route share (42.3% to 26.3%).

Altogether, that usage ties him for fifth among RBs in expected PPR points per game. And the gap between his expected and actual scoring -- minus-6.6 per game -- leads all RBs.

That tells us to expect positive regression.

But Didn’t the Bengals Offense Just Die?

Short answer: nah.

Longer version: QB Jake Browning piloted the Bengals for the final seven games of 2023, after Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury. And things actually went pretty well.

Check out the comparison of numbers between Burrow’s nine full starts and Browning’s seven starts:

I’m certainly not trying to say that Browning makes Cincinnati’s offense better. You might remember that 2023 season opened with Burrow coming off a month-long calf injury and started sluggishly.

But the unit delivered numbers with Browning behind center. And the passing got friendlier for the RBs.

The Bengals just lost some offensive upside. But they should remain productive. And we already know Brown is the backfield focal point. Check in with his current manager to see how high that panic level sits.

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

If you were paying attention around NFL Draft season, then you might already know we weren’t high on Golden the prospect. And we’ve still got questions about his long-term fantasy worth.

But his two-week start has been so rough that even fans of the rookie might be wary now. And if they’re ready to give up, you just might get worthwhile upside at a cheap price.

Buy Starter Potential at a Reserve Price

Golden was going in just WR4-5 territory at draft time, meaning most drafters hoped to find value rather than expecting immediate starter-level production. The rookie then garnered just two targets in each of his first two games, tallying just a pair of receptions and two carries.

Shane watched the Week 2 film, though, and saw Golden creating loads of separation against Washington but simply not getting rewarded with the targets (or missed on a couple key deep balls). Shane writes:

Of course, it’s a problem if you’re not getting those first-read targets. And Golden ranks just 82nd among WRs in route share so far. But there’s hope.

Expect the Role to Keep Growing

We’ve already seen Golden’s role begin to expand. He went from running a route on just 43.5% of the Week 1 dropbacks to 64.7% in Week 2. That trailed Romeo Doubs’ lead among Packers receivers by just four total routes.

Green Bay’s WR corps has been frustratingly egalitarian since Davante Adams left for the 2022 season. Only one Packer has reached 100 targets since then, and that was Allen Lazard (100) back in 2022.

But Golden’s Round 1 selection marked the first time the franchise had drafted a WR so high since 2003. That tells us what HC Matt LaFleur and his crew thought of the talent. Green Bay also sports a pair of Round 2 WRs … and they’re both injured (Christian Watson and Jayden Reed).

We can assume the Packers are excited about Golden, who generated plenty of buzz this summer. The combo of Golden gaining experience and Green Bay losing Reed -- who led the team in receptions each of the past two years -- should mean more opportunities for the rookie.

What Should We Expect Fantasy Wise?

Keep that spread-it-around pass offense in mind as you consider what to offer for Golden.

We’re not acquiring a guy who should start for you in Week 3, most likely. He sits just 53rd in our PPR WR rankings for the week. And the reasonable ceiling probably sits somewhere in WR3 range across formats.

But your cost to get him should check in well below that. Golden could even be a sneaky throw-in to a deal that centers on bigger names.

If his playing time increases this Sunday at Cleveland, then we might be able to start considering the rookie for fantasy lineups in a Week 4 clash with the generous Cowboys defense.

Sell These Players

Oh boy. You're not gonna like this first one ...

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Warning: If you put together a trade offer that includes Egbuka, it ain’t gonna feel good. You probably drafted this guy in the low 20s, 30s, or maybe even 40s among WRs. And he already sits 13th at the position in total PPR points.

But there’s reason to believe his value won’t stay that high.

Rookie Has Outscored His Usage

Let’s start with reality. Egbuka ranks 13th in points but:

• tied for 34th in targets
• tied for 32nd in receptions
• tied for 43rd in receiving yards
• 27th in expected PPR points per game

We’re not doubting Egbuka’s talent, and only Mike Evans sits ahead of him among Bucs in targets and receiving yards. But Egbuka has gotten a bit lucky in catching three of the team’s five passing TDs through two weeks. That’s inflating his perceived value.

Big Challenge on Its Way

Egbuka has also benefited from WR Chris Godwin missing the first two games while he works back from last year’s ankle injury. But Godwin’s nearing his return.

The veteran managed limited practices Wednesday and Friday ahead of the Week 2 win over the Texans. That puts him on track for an expected return in Week 5 or 6.

That, of course, would mean at least two more games of Egbuka running as a top-2 WR for the Bucs. But as soon as we hit a week in which Godwin’s expected to play, there’s room for the rookie’s market price to drop.

And what if he … I don’t know … doesn’t score a TD some week before that? A meh week for Egbuka runs the risk of lowering your return.

One New Factor to Watch

Egbuka landed on the injury report this week, missing Wednesday’s practice with hip and groin issues. There was no signal of this coming out of Monday night’s win at Houston. The rookie played 74 of the 80 offensive snaps, trailing only Baker Mayfield and four of the O-linemen. 

So I’m guessing this will pass before Sunday, but we’ll have to watch Egbuka’s participation and be ready for that red “Q” next to his name on your league-hosting site to potentially spook some would-be buyers.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne has been a Javonte Williams-type revelation through two weeks: Delivering RB1-level scoring after arriving in the double-digit rounds of drafts.

One key difference between Etienne: Many of us at least entered the season excited about the potential of the Jaguars backfield overall, even if we weren’t sure which player would be the biggest winner.

So why turn on the early leader so quickly?

He’s Not a Mirage … But He’s Kind of a Mirage

We highlighted the Jacksonville backfield for sleeper potential all offseason, vacillating at times on who to target but staying strong on the why.

New HC Liam Coen arrived after piloting a Bucky Irving-fueled backfield breakthrough as Tampa Bay’s OC. Coen also sported positive rushing impacts as Kentucky’s OC, and even his lone season as Rams OC coincided with RB Cam Akers’ best season.

So isn’t Etienne’s early success as Jags touch leader what should happen? Yes … but probably not to this degree.

Just look at his ranks at the position so far:

• ninth in PPR points per game
• Tied for 19th in expected PPG
• 20th in carry share
• 28th in target share

Etienne has scored 5.4 points over expectation so far, fifth-highest at the position (narrowly behind Williams). The Tank Bigsby trade looks like a win for his usage. But Etienne went from 50% carry share in the opener to 51.9% last week -- 19th at the position, behind Cam Skattebo and just 0.2 percentage points ahead of Zach Charbonnet.

And Etienne’s target share dipped vs. Week 1 (9.7% to 7.1%). The latter mark ranked just 29th among RBs for the week.

Are We Overreacting to a Small Sample?

We only have two weeks of data so far. I’ve pointed out that Etienne has outperformed his usage to date. But what if that usage climbs?

That’s possible, of course. There’s risk to trading away any productive player. But let’s look at the facts …

Etienne’s in his fifth pro season, the final year (exercised club option) on his rookie deal. He might be new to this year’s coaching staff, but they had three years and 769 touches worth of film to study ahead of the season.

Etienne hit 2025 as easily the most known entity in the Jacksonville backfield. It’s unlikely that they’re still feeling out what he can do and waiting to elevate his workload. It’s more likely that Coen and crew see this as Etienne’s fit.

Behind him sit two new guys. Fourth-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten and seventh-rounder LeQuint Allen, on the other hand, have just one camp and two NFL games behind them.

They’ve already impressed Jags brass enough to make Bigsby expendable. And Tuten’s workload already grew quite a bit from Week 1 (four snaps, three touches) to Week 2 (18 snaps, 10 touches).

It’s entirely possible that the rookies (either or both) command more work as the season progresses.

None of that makes Etienne a “must” sell this week. But it’s a good time to see if you can get a good return and what might prove to be peak value.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

There are a few competing truths working here, so let’s break things down …

But Why Sell Johnston Specifically?

Among the top three Chargers wideouts, Johnston’s easily outperforming his usage by the widest margin.

His 20.4 PPR points per game (seventh among WRs) vs. 13.3 expected (tied for 24th) leaves a 7.1-point gap that stands fourth-largest at the position. That’s what snagging three of your team’s five passing scores will do.

It’s easy to expect regression in that area. But Johnston’s 18.8 yards per catch will almost certainly come down as well.

None of that makes him a must-sell if your trade targets remain skeptical. He certainly could stay useful all year. But now’s a good time to see if someone’s willing to buy a true Quentin Johnston Breakout Season.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

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Dynasty Trade Targets: Four Players to Grab, Two to Dump

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.