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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 12

Make Meaningful Moves

We’re getting close to the end of the fantasy season. This’ll be the second-to-last Trade Targets article of the season. And you should be making different moves at this point.

Earlier in the year, you were looking to buy undervalued assets who might turn into something. You could afford to stash hopefuls off waivers. But it’s time to focus on production over hope.

It’s time to go after guys who can actually help you win a championship. It’s time to trade away players who could halt that pursuit with a couple bad scores in the fantasy playoffs.

It’s time to focus on the title. Let’s get into it.

Week 12 Buys

• Kyren Williams
• George Pickens
• Tee Higgins

Week 12 Sells

• J.K. Dobbins
• Joe Mixon
• D’Andre Swift

Week 12 Holds

• David Njoku
• Jared Goff

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

These guys promise upside for the coming weeks.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

We’re kicking this off with the No. 8 RB in both total PPR points and points per game?

Sure, you might not be able to pry Williams from his current team in your league. But if ever there has been (or will be) a chance this season … this is it.

Recent Slowdown

Williams scored in seven straight games to open the year. But he has failed to find the end zone in each of the past three.

If you combine that with his mere 15 carries the past two games, you might think there’s some issue with his role. But there’s not.

Check out Williams’ playing time, carry share, and rate of pass routes for the two time spans:

And the Rams haven’t been struggling either. Sure, they didn’t move the ball quite as well as expected against Miami in Week 10. But they sandwiched that between strong offensive efforts against the Seahawks and Patriots.

The team scored 6 offensive TDs over the past three weeks. They just all happened to come via pass. And the Dolphins loss included an uncommon 5 FGs.

Expect Williams to get back in on the scoring the rest of the way.

Matchups Better After Philly

Williams managers might be even more concerned with the no-TD streak as the RB heads into his worst remaining matchup: the Eagles.

Acquire Williams this week and you might have to endure a down game. But you’ll then get the sixth-best RB schedule from Week 13 on, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

As I mentioned last week in the case for buying Williams’ teammate Puka Nacua, it’s OK if you have to pay up to make this move.

You’re trying to consolidate a championship roster now. Not chase down menial boosts in value that are more likely to fill your bench.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pickens has been good since QB Russell Wilson entered the lineup. This is a good week to check to see if his manager in your league realizes just how good.

FantasyCalc.com pins Pickens’ market value at WR17 right now. Not bad. But that sits short of his recent performance.

Since Wilson stepped in for Week 7, Pickens ranks 12th among WRs in expected PPR points per game – and ninth in actual points per game.

He sits 11th among all WRs in target share over that span, third in air yards share, and second in share of team receiving yards. And that last category finds him trailing only Tee Higgins, who played just one game in that span (Week 11).

Remaining Schedule Looks Good

There’s some general downside risk in betting on a passing-game piece for a run-heavy offense. But Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule could even help the passing volume.

The Steelers get the seventh-best WR schedule from this week on, with only a Week 15 visit to Philly looking significantly negative.

It’s also the worst remaining slate in the league for RB scoring. The best remaining matchup by our adjusted fantasy points allowed in a Week 16 visit to Baltimore – which has not allowed a single RB to tally more than 63 yards on the ground all year.

Make your offer good if you want a chance at Pickens, because his manager’s probably pretty happy with him. Get the young wideout, and you might have a WR1-level scorer the rest of the way.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins might seem closer to a “sell” after his big game against the Chargers. But he’s having quite possibly his best season as a pro … when he’s been healthy.

That part is key. Although Higgins’ numbers have been good when he’s been active, his five missed games have surely taxed his current managers – especially the three games off just before the Chargers affair.

Combine that with this week’s bye, and you might very well find a troubled team needing immediate help to fight for a playoff spot.

You’d Get a Strong Producer

That situation would obviously help your chance, but Higgins is worth chasing even if that’s not the case.

His durability issues and the fact that he plays with Ja’Marr Chase can make Higgins seem like a tenuous bet. But he has actually matched Chase in expected PPR points per game this season, both ranking fifth at the position.

Higgins trails Chase by just 0.3 receptions and 14.5 yards per game for the season. And he has been consistent, delivering 6+ catches and 60+ yards in four of the past five games, following a quieter season debut vs. Washington in Week 3.

Situation Helps Challenging Schedule

That proximity to Chase in usage also shows how far Higgins sits ahead of other options in the offense that sits well ahead of the rest of the league in pass rate over expected.

Keep that passing volume in mind if you check our strength-of-schedule pages and find Cincinnait’s rated fourth-worst for WR scoring.

Also keep in mind that Chase’s presence should keep Higgins from drawing shadow coverage by opponents’ lead corners.

Will he see some Pat Surtain II in that Week 17 date with Denver? Probably. But Higgins should also get some of second-year CB Riley Moss, who’s allowing a passer rating nearly 30 points higher (92.2) than Surtain (63.5).

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• Irving will be tougher to get now that his bye has passed. He's still worth a shot ahead of the league's best remaining RB schedule.
• Nacua delivered his best line of the season last time out: 7-123-1. I'd love to pick him up still, but his managers are probably too busy celebrating.
• There might be an even lower chance with Hall, who also delivered his best fantasy line of the year last week. His 7 receptions tied a season high, and it was the first time all year he has scored 2 TDs in a game.
• The window on Evans might be open a little longer, as he remained limited in his Wednesday return to practice. If he plays a full snap allotment against the Giants this Sunday, though, that might close the window.
• Make sure you don't overpay for Kincaid, who missed last week with his knee injury. We'll see about his status coming out of the Week 12 bye.
• Warren carries the lowest floor among guys on this list. He'll need a Najee Harris injury to approach his ceiling. But Warren's price might be even lower after a back injury seemed to limit his role against Baltimore.

Fantasy Sells

These are not necessarily “must” sells. Some candidates might be. But these are generally decent-to-good fantasy assets that you might be able to sell right now for more than we expect them to be worth going forward.

If you don’t get a good enough return, don’t make the trade.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Dobbins’ 2 TDs against Cincinnati on Sunday night marked his second 2-TD game among the past three weeks and boosted him to a tie for 15th in PPR points per game among RBs. 

And that puts him well ahead of his No. 26 rank in expected PPR points per game.

Dobbins fell short of 60 total yards each of the past two weeks and has reached 70 total yards just twice in the past eight games.

Workload Problem

That span even included four games without Gus Edwards, which significantly boosted Dobbins’ workload.

He got 62.5% of Chargers RB rushes over those four games.

In the two since Edwards returned from IR? 40.6%.

And it’s not just Edwards. Hassan Haskins has vultured goal-line carries in three of the past four contests. He scored against Tennessee in Week 10 (when Dobbins did not) and got shots from the 1-yard line ahead of Dobbins TDs both last week and in Week 8.

Schedule Doesn’t Help

Not only is Dobbins dealing with less work, he also gets the fourth-worst RB schedule from here on out. That includes negative spots each of the next three weeks, against:

• Baltimore
• Atlanta
• Kansas City

He’ll need quite a bit more TD luck to help you win a championship.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

You gotta be happy that Swift scored in the first game after Chicago switched OCs, especially after he didn’t score the previous two weeks. Good yardage, too (5.1 per carry). But there also might be a problem.

Swift played just 57% of the offensive snaps, his second-smallest share of the season. He led Roschon Johnson by just:

• 11 snaps
• 5 pass routes
• 4 carries
• and 1 target

Jared added some context to that in his Week 11 usage report. But at best, Johnson racked up a good bit of work in short-yardage and passing situations – pretty valuable RB real estate.

It’s one game, so we’ll see how the situation develops. But there’s more to be wary about with Swift.

Bad Schedule

Only the Steelers get a worse draw of RB defenses the rest of the way.

Swift’s schedule holds both Vikings matchups and both Lions matchups within the next five games. They sandwich a visit to San Francisco that figures to find Chicago a significant underdog.

Add to that a Bears offense that hasn’t reached 20 points in a game since Week 6. For the season, Chicago ranks just 27th in offensive DVOA. That’s not helping RB scoring opportunities.

See if you can move Swift ahead of this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

Mixon has been a key to your fantasy success so far, but you might want to move on from him before your fantasy football playoffs.

First off, Mixon’s been outscoring his usage since his Week 6 return from injury. His 3.8 PPR points over expected in that span ranks seventh-highest among RBs. Key to that has been a high 6.8% rushing-TD rate.

Mixon has also benefited from terrific touch volume, carrying 20+ times each of the past five weeks. But both of those factors face late-season challenges.

Tough Schedule Finish

First off, Mixon gets a Week 14 bye – the league’s final bye week this season. Unless you’re comfily seeded for league playoffs that start in Week 15, that’s rough bye timing.

On the other side of that sits a fine matchup with Miami – but then bad matchups with the Chiefs and Ravens.

No team has allowed fewer points per game to RBs than K.C. has. Only one RB has reached 60 rushing yards against the Ravens, and none has exceeded 63.

Sure, Mixon could make up for that with his workhorse load in a good offense – but we don’t even know if the Texans are that overall at this point. They sit just 24th in offensive DVOA. That should improve with Nico Collins back, but C.J. Stroud still looked pretty meh against Dallas on Monday night.

Time to Work the Market

But why worry about Mixon this early, with Tennessee and Jacksonville matchups ahead of that bye?

If you start the pursuit now, then you have time to seek out the optimal deal. And you should definitely hold out for strong value in this case – or even just hang on to Mixon if nothing pans out.

Wait through that Week 13 clash with Jacksonville, though, and suddenly you’re trying to sell a RB on his bye week. That plus teams getting eliminated from playoff contention can only dampen Mixon’s market value.

Right now, you might be able to move Mixon for Kyren Williams plus an upgrade at another position.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

• We knew last week that St. Brown could have a nice game against the Jaguars. I posted the schedule that displayed Jacksonville as by far the best remaining matchup. This week's clash with Indy is now the best one left on the schedule. So feel free to hold St. Brown through that one and then sell ahead of a bad schedule finish.
• Harris actually delivered a really good performance Sunday relative to his tough matchup with Baltimore. That was good enough to land him 17th among RBs. And he benefited from Jaylen Warren seeing less work after entering the game questionable with a back issue. The remaining schedule remains brutal, and Harris remains a downside risk.
• Thomas will be especially tough to sell with a Week 12 bye. But he did at least give us a 5-82 receiving line in Mac Jones' second start, seeing his most targets since Week 5.
• The past two weeks have showed why we tried to sell Smith when we did. He has posted receiving lines of 2-14 and 4-29 since then. Keep trying to look for spots to move him, though you might need to wait until his next good fantasy outing.
• The bad: Stevenson has gone two games without a TD. The good: He has carried 20 times in each of those. He still looks like a sellable -- and sell-worthy -- asset. As long as you're not under-selling.
• This'll be a tough week to sell Tillman. He still got the targets (8) last week, but Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore far outproduced him.

Fantasy Holds

You might want to hang on to these guys for now to see what happens.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

We wanted to call Njoku a “buy” this week. But I just have a hard time imagining his managers letting him go.

The Browns WRs have drawn more attention since QB Jameis Winston stepped in, but Njoku has delivered 17.1 PPR points in two of Winston’s three starts as well.

That gives him three games of 17+ PPR points among his past four, starting with the game where Deshaun Watson went down.

Njoku has seen 7+ targets and caught 5+ balls in five straight contests, showing no ill effects from the WRs getting such good target volume.

If you already have Njoku, smile and enjoy him the rest of the way. If you don’t, you could try making an offer. But it’ll probably have to be strong.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

I mentioned in last week’s fantasy football playoffs preview that Goff gets a bad finish to his schedule.

That remains true, and it starts ahead of the fantasy football playoffs. Goff gets the third-worst QB schedule the rest of the way. So why not just go ahead and sell him?

You could, assuming you have another starting QB. But you could also wait until after this week’s matchup with the Colts.

That matchup rates fifth-best for QB scoring among Week 12 opponents. And we saw last week that these Lions are capable of supporting big days for the pass and run game at the same time.

If we get another big outing from Goff this week, sell away before the Week 13 clash with Chicago that kicks off five straight weeks of strongly negative passing matchups (and much better for rushing).

Recent Holds

Let’s see where Holds from the past two weeks stand.

• Last week we were holding Hockenson because we were encouraged by his usage. We're holding this week because we don't have much choice. His route share and target share in Week 11 not only dipped vs. the previous game. Each checked in short of his Week 9 season debut.
• Pacheco has returned to practice this week. That alone is reason to rejoice. (Unless you have Kareem Hunt and not Pacheco.)
• The Browns stunk as a team against the Saints. And Chubb tallied only 11 carries despite the game not getting out of hand until the fourth quarter. That was his best remaining matchup, so it's fine to quit on Chubb for 2024.
• Dowdle has managed 15 opportunities and lackluster yardage through two weeks with Cooper Rush behind center. Holding is the only choice you have here.

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

The Trade Navigator will help you find what you want ... and the league mates who need what you got. And then it'll help you build that season-changing trade package.

Check out this short video to learn more ...

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.