Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Jared's Pre-NFL Draft Rookie Rankings

Projecting NFL players is hard. Projecting how guys who have never played an NFL snap will fare in the NFL is damn hard. So you should be even more willing in dynasty rookie drafts to go get your guy — even if it’s a supposed “reach” based on ADP.

When putting together these rookie rankings, we have 4 things to consider:

1. College production
2. College film
3. Measurables
4. NFL landing spot

We have the first 3 now, so let’s run through my overall and positional rankings before we get the 4th piece of the puzzle. The gaps in the rankings represent the ends of tiers.

Note: You can check out Kevin’s pre-draft rankings here.

Top 60 Overall

1. Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

An ankle injury prevented Davis from working out in the pre-draft process. But he earns big ol’ checkmarks in the production and film boxes. He’s the NCAA’s all-time leader in career receiving yards and ranks 2nd in career TDs. He wins with advanced route running, big-time burst and strong after-the-catch ability. Comparisons have ranged from A.J. Green to Terrell Owens. Those are lofty, but there’s clear NFL #1 WR and fantasy football WR1 potential here.

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

The prototypical back for today’s NFL. Solid between the tackles, electric in space and an elite pass-catcher. McCaffrey’s fantasy ceiling approaches Marshall Faulk territory.

3. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

A big, bad man with surprising long speed. Fournette has tons of TD upside at the next level. The biggest question is just how much he’ll contribute in the passing game after totaling only 41 catches across 3 college seasons. But if he’s a top 10 pick, his NFL team will likely see him as a 3-down back.

4. Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

The tape shows tons of quicks and lateral agility. The college production was huge: 4,464 rushing yards, 935 receiving yards and 48 total TDs over 3 seasons. But Cook tested as a 6th-percentile athlete for his position and comes with off-field baggage and durability concerns. Definitely the toughest evaluation among this top tier.

5. Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma

Mixon’s off-field ugliness will cause him to drop in the draft. But he’ll land in an NFL backfield — and has the talent to quickly earn a big role when he does. Mixon might have the best mix of running and pass-catching ability in this year’s RB class.

6. John Ross, WR, Washington

Ross earned ink with his Combine-record 4.22-second 40 time. But he’s also a strong ball tracker with good quicks and agility. Think T.Y. Hilton. Former NFL GM Bill Polian aimed even higher with his comparison: Marvin Harrison.

7. Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

Williams doesn’t create nearly as much separation as the 2 WRs above him in these rankings. He dominated in contested situations in college, but will that translate to the pros? If it does, Williams will boast an Alshon Jeffery-level ceiling.

8. David Njoku, TE, Miami

I’m not sure I’ve ever ranked a TE this high. Part of it is the lack of high-end talent in this year’s WR class. The other part is Njoku’s tantalizing combination of size and athleticism. He tested as a 97th-percentile athlete at his position and looks it on the field. He averaged a ridiculous 11.2 yards after the catch this past year. And he doesn’t turn 21 until July.

9. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama

He’s the class’ most complete TE and a better pro prospect than Njoku. But Howard’s strong blocking ability might actually cap his fantasy upside. Think Greg Olsen to Njoku’s Jimmy Graham. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with Greg Olsen.

10. Curtis Samuel, WR/RB, Ohio State

He led the Buckeyes in catches, receiving yards and receiving TDs last year — and ran for 771 yards and 8 scores. One of the youngest skill-position guys in the class — he’ll turn just 21 during training camp — Samuel has a shot to be more productive than RB/WR hybrids like Tyreek Hill and Ty Montgomery.

11. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC

We’d all be much higher on this guy if he had been allowed to enter the NFL after a massive 1,454-yard, 10-TD true sophomore 2015 season. Smith-Schuster’s numbers took a step back this past year, but there should still be tons of room for growth for a guy who can’t legally drink a beer until November.

12. Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State

Similar to Smith-Schuster, Godwin’s tape is inconsistent with flashes of dominance. He ripped USC for a 9-187-2 line in his final college outing, though, and then earned a 90th percentile SPARQ score at the Combine. This looks like a WR on the ascent.

13. Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma

The 6’0, 174-pounder is built like DeSean Jackson. But he displays better contested-catch ability than D-Jax and isn’t afraid to go over the middle. The concerns are that he had just 1 big college season and turns 24 in November. Westbrook’s ceiling isn’t as lofty as the WRs ranked above him here, but he could emerge as a high-upside weekly fantasy starter.

14. Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky

Slightly undersized at 5’11 and 203 pounds but a tough, quick, well-rounded WR. Taylor beat up weaker competition at Western Kentucky but turned in strong outings against LSU (10-103-1) in 2015 and Alabama (9-121) this past year. I like Greg Cosell’s Emmanuel Sanders comparison.

15. Jeremy McNichols, RB, Boise State

3,046 rushing yards, 88 catches and 53 total TDs over the past 2 seasons. A 65th percentile SPARQ score. McNichols boasts 3-down potential and seems to be flying under the radar.

16. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee

Kamara looks electric on tape and earned an 83rd percentile SPARQ score. But he never reached 700 rushing yards in a college season, suffered a couple of knee injuries and comes with character concerns. One of the bigger boom/bust prospects in the class.

17. Josh Reynolds, WR, Texas A&M

This guy broke Mike Evans’ school record with 13 TDs as a true sophomore back in 2014 and left A&M with a whopping 17.0 yards per catch. The long, physical 6’3, 194-pounder should at least be a valuable deep threat at the next level. And there’s potential for more. Reynolds looks like 1 of the biggest sleepers in the WR class.

18. Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech

One of the funnest prospects in the 2017 class. Henderson is a terror after the catch with crazy quicks and change-of-direction. He forced 48 missed tackles last year, according to Pro Football Focus — 20 more than any other WR over the past 3 seasons. How much he can improve before he gets the ball in his hands will determine his ceiling at the next level.

19. Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina

Schauf will tell you I’m way too low on Jones —and he might be right. He holds Division I records for single-season catches (158 last year) and career catches (399). Then he went to the Combine and posted a 94th percentile SPARQ score. Jones doesn’t look that athletic on tape, though. And much of his production was manufactured. I see him as a low-upside slot receiver as a pro. I could be wrong.

20. Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss

Allergic to blocking but a major weapon in the passing game, Engram is essentially a big WR. That’s intriguing from a fantasy perspective but makes his NFL projection a bit tougher. Landing spot will be especially important here.

21. Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo

Hunt’s measurables and tape don’t match. He tested as a 28th percentile athlete but looks quick and powerful on the field. Only 1 RB in the country forced more missed tackles than his 98 last year. And he caught 41 balls. A potential discount 3-down back.

22. D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

Foreman’s tape underwhelmed. Perhaps I’m missing something. He clocked a 4.45 40-yard dash at 234 pounds at his Pro Day after running for 2,028 yards this past year. But I didn’t see those measurables show up on tape. And he caught just 7 balls during that workhorse 2016 campaign.

23. KD Cannon, WR, Baylor

A productive, athletic WR coming out of Baylor. Sound familiar? We’ll see if Cannon can adjust to the NFL game better than fellow alums like Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams.

24. Chad Hansen, WR, California

He began his career at Idaho State. He ended it by posting a huge 92-1,249-11 line for Cal. Hansen won’t ‘wow’ with athleticism, but he has some of the best hands in the class and a wide catch radius. His NFL QB will like him. He looks like a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy prospect.

25. Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington

Uber-productive, with 1,400+ yards and 16+ TDs in all 4 years at Eastern Washington. But it was Eastern Washington. Kupp also turns 24 in June and tested as a 39th percentile athlete. He looks like a big slot receiver at the next level, a la Jordan Matthews.

26. Marlon Mack, RB, South Florida

Mack is an angular runner with loads of acceleration and long speed. Think Tevin Coleman. He’ll need to become more patient and improve in the passing game in order to develop into more than a change-of-pace back, though.

27. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma

A pure power back who will get what’s blocked and maybe a little more. Perine will need big volume — and probably a strong offense — to emerge as a fantasy difference-maker. He’s more likely to settle in as the power half of a committee.

28. Josh Malone, WR, Tennessee

The former 5-star recruit was quiet in his first 2 seasons at Tennessee. But he broke out last year with a 50-972-11 line. Then he ran a 4.40-second 40 at 6’3, 208 pounds. There’s upside well above this ranking.

29. Isaiah Ford, WR, Virginia Tech

It took Ford just 3 seasons to become V-Tech’s all-time leader in career catches, receiving yards and receiving TDs. He’s a bit wiry with below-average athleticism, but he flashes the ball skills to make some noise at the next level.

30. Ish Zamora, WR, Baylor

At 6’4, 224 pounds with 4.4 speed and a 40-inch vertical, Zamora might just have the highest ceiling in the WR class. The odds of him reaching that ceiling are slim, but he’s an intriguing roll of the dice at this point of the rankings.

31. James Conner, RB, Penn State

The cancer survivor did extremely well to return and run for 1,092 yards and 16 TDs this past season. If he can rediscover the pre-cancer form that propelled him to 1,765 yards and 26 scores back in 2014, we could be looking at 1 of the bigger steals in the RB class.

32. Jamaal Williams, RB, BYU

An eventful college career (he left school in 2015 for personal reasons) included a 1,233-yard 2013 season and a 1,375-yard 2016 campaign. And we find some hidden pass-catching ability if we look all the way back to a 27-catch 2012. Williams doesn’t jump off the screen but does everything well. He probably won’t force his way to the top of an NFL depth chart but could produce if given an opportunity.

33. ArDarius Stewart, WR, Alabama

Muted college production in a loaded, run-heavy ‘Bama offense. But Stewart flashed big-play ability and averaged 16.0 yards per catch this past season. He could be more productive as a pro than he was in college.

34. Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina

Hood exploded for 1,463 yards and 17 TDs in 2015. But his numbers took a big step back this past season, sharing the backfield with T.J. Logan and missing 2 games with injury. Hood goes 5’11, 232 pounds and packs a punch. But he tested as a 14th percentile athlete.

35. Bucky Hodges, TE Virginia Tech

Listed as a TE but essentially played WR for the Hokies. At 6’6 and 257 pounds, he has the size to make it as a TE at the next level. And he shredded the Combine for a 95th percentile SPARQ score. But Hodges is a major project — albeit an intriguing one.

36. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Landing spot will determine the post-draft rankings of the top 3 QBs. Watson’s college track record makes him the safest prospect. And his rushing ability raises the fantasy ceiling.

37. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

Just 13 college starts, but they were impressive. And Trubisky is an above-average athlete, so there’s some rushing upside here.

38. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Could be the top QB in this class in 5 years … or be out of the league. Mahomes is a gunslinger through and through. A more athletic Jay Cutler.

39. Malachi Dupre, WR, LSU

Crappy QB play muted his production, but I didn’t see a whole lot to be excited about on tape. He did test in the 82nd percentile, though, so perhaps there’s untapped potential here.

40. Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia

Plays much faster than his 4.50-second 40 time at the Combine. (He was clocked around 4.40 at his Pro Day.) Could prove to be a discount version of KD Cannon — or even Dede Westbrook.

41. Joe Williams, RB, Utah

An explosive straight-line back who busted off 1,407 rushing yards in just 9 games last year. But he didn’t do much in the passing game, turns 24 in September and has commitment questions after retiring for part of this past season.

42. Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson

A big part of Clemson’s offense over the past 2 seasons, totaling 2,647 rushing yards, 378 receiving yards and 31 total TDs. But a 22nd percentile SPARQ score might have exposed him as more a product of that offense than a driver of it. The tape is ho-hum.

43. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State

FBS’ all-time leading rusher might be a 1st-round pick in the NFL Draft if he was 30 pounds heavier. But alas, a 5’8, 176-pounder is doubtful to be more than a change-of-pace in the pros. Pumphrey did catch 100 balls across 4 college seasons, so there’s some Darren Sproles potential here.

44. Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP

His 88th percentile SPARQ score made him the most athletic RB at this year’s Combine. Jones is undersized at 5’9, 208 pounds but handled 19.6 carries per game over his final 2 healthy seasons at UTEP. Also totaled 58 catches those 2 years. He’s a potential riser in the post-draft rankings.

45. DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame

The big arm makes him easy to like. But Kizer struggles with accuracy and decision-making, completing a subpar 60.7% of his passes in 2 college seasons. Needs time to develop and would benefit from landing behind a seasoned veteran like Drew Brees or Eli Manning.

46. Stacy Coley, WR, Miami

He led the Hurricanes with 63 catches and 9 TDs as a senior this past year and ran a 4.45-second 40 at the Combine. Coley is a wiry 6’0, 195-pounder, though, who struggles against physical coverage. And there are concerns about his passion for the game.

47. Amara Darboh, WR, Michigan

The Sierra Leone native is already 23 years old and underwhelms on tape. He’s goes 6’2, 214 pounds with an 84th percentile SPARQ score, though, so it’s worth seeing where he lands.

48. De’Angelo Henderson, RB, Coastal Carolina

The 5’8, 207-pounder packs some punch — and some wicked jump cuts. He also tallied 93 receptions over the last 3 years. Henderson has a huge jump to make in competition but might have the talent to do it successfully. Sleeper.

49. Jalen Robinette, WR, Air Force

Accounted for a whopping 51.7% of Air Force’s receptions and 54.7% of the receiving yards last year. So if you’re into market share, this is your dude. But Robinette is extremely raw and tested out as a 29th percentile athlete. Already 23 years old, he’s unlikely to develop into more than a situational receiver.

50. Trent Taylor, WR, Louisiana Tech

Similar in size, athleticism and tape to the guy beneath him on this list. But Taylor was much more productive, racking up 235 catches, 3,085 yards and 21 TDs over the past 2 seasons. Could make it as a slot receiver at the next level.

51. Ryan Switzer, WR, North Carolina

Switzer emerged as Mitchell Trubisky’s go-to guy last year, posting a career-best 96-1,112-6 line. The 5’9, 181-pounder is destined for a slot role at the next level. But strong volume could turn him into a PPR asset.

52. Brian Hill, RB, Wyoming

I swear I watched a few games of Hill … but I don’t remember much. He’s a 6’1, 219-pound grinder who racked up 630 carries over the past 2 seasons. He’d need to fall into a perfect situation to sniff that type of workload in the NFL, though.

53. Tarik Cohen, RB, North Carolina A&T

Cohen is a fun dude to watch and racked up over 6,500 total yards in 4 college seasons. But he’s a 5’6, 179-pounder with a 10th percentile SPARQ score. A poor bet to emerge as a fantasy factor — but it’d be sweet if he did.

54. Matthew Dayes, RB, North Carolina State

Ran for 1,166 yards last year and caught 88 balls over the past 3 seasons. That, plus solid tape, makes me want to like him. But a sub-1st percentile SPARQ score probably means he’s a long shot.

55. Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama

I didn’t see a whole lot to get excited about in the 2 Everett games on Draft Breakdown. But he checks the production and measurables boxes. Tallied 1,292 yards and 12 scores over the past 2 seasons and registered a SPARQ score in the 88th percentile.

56. Jake Butt, TE, Michigan

Has torn his right ACL twice, including this past December. If healthy, though, Butt could develop into a well-rounded NFL starter. Maybe a Heath Miller type.

57. Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee

The aerospace engineering major needs lots of work as a passer. But his athleticism (88th percentile SPARQ) and rushing ability (1,502 yards and 23 TDs over the last 2 years) would provide fantasy pop if he ever lands a starting job.

58. Amba Etta-Tawo, WR, Syracuse

Broke out with a huge 94-1,482-14 line for Syracuse last year after totaling just 30 catches in 2 seasons at Maryland. Maddeningly inconsistent on tape but tested as an above-average athlete. There’s clay to be molded here.

59. Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson

No Tiger caught more TDs than Leggett’s 15 over the past 2 seasons. Plenty of pass-catching ability. And at 6’5, 258 pounds, he has the size to succeed as a blocker at the next level.

60. Jehu Chesson, WR, Michigan

Was Michigan’s leading receiver in 2015 before being usurped by Amara Darboh this past year. Chesson pops every so often on tape and posted an 89th percentile SPARQ score at 6’3, 204 pounds.

QBs

1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson

2. Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina

3. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech

4. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

5. Josh Dobbs, Tennessee

6. Brad Kaaya, Miami

7. Davis Webb, California

8. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh

9. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech

10. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss

RBs

1. Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

2. Leonard Fournette, LSU

3. Dalvin Cook, Florida State

4. Joe Mixon, Oklahoma

5. Jeremy McNichols, Boise State

6. Alvin Kamara, Tennessee

7. Kareem Hunt, Toledo

8. D’Onta Foreman, Texas

9. Marlon Mack, South Florida

10. Samaje Perine, Oklahoma

11. James Conner, Pittsburgh

12. Jamaal Williams, BYU

13. Elijah Hood, North Carolina

14. Joe Williams, Utah

15. Wayne Gallman, Clemson

16. Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State

17. Aaron Jones, UTEP

18. De’Angelo Henderson, Coastal Carolina

19. Brian Hill, Wyoming

20. Tarik Cohen, North Carolina A&T

21. Matthew Dayes, North Carolina State

22. Christopher Carson, Oklahoma State

23. T.J. Logan, North Carolina

24. Corey Clement, Wisconsin

25. Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette

26. Joseph Yearby, Miami

WRs

1. Corey Davis, Western Michigan

2. John Ross, Washington

3. Mike Williams, Clemson

4. Curtis Samuel, Ohio State

5. JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC

6. Chris Godwin, Penn State

7. Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma

8. Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky

9. Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M

10. Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech

11. Zay Jones, East Carolina

12. KD Cannon, Baylor

13. Chad Hansen, California

14. Cooper Kupp, Eastern Washington

15. Josh Malone, Tennessee

16. Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech

17. Ish Zamora, Baylor

18. ArDarius Stewart, Alabama

19. Malachi Dupre, LSU

20. Shelton Gibson, West Virginia

21. Stacy Coley, Miami

22. Amara Darboh, Michigan

23. Jalen Robinette, Air Force

24. Trent Taylor, Louisiana Tech

25. Ryan Switzer, North Carolina

26. Amba Etta-Tawo, Syracuse

27. Jehu Chesson, Michigan

28. Krishawn Hogan, Marian

29. Robert Davis, Georgia State

30. Travin Dural, LSU

TEs

1. David Njoku, Miami

2. O.J. Howard, Alabama

3. Evan Engram, Ole Miss

4. Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech

5. Gerald Everett, South Alabama

6. Jake Butt, Michigan

7. Jordan Leggett, Clemson

8. George Kittle, Iowa

9. Adam Shaheen, Ashland

10. Jonnu Smith, Florida International

11. Jeremy Sprinkle, Arkansas

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.