Luther Burden Dynasty Value: Don’t Let Recency Bias Win

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Burden carried NFL expectations as a high schooler.

The five-star prospect chose Missouri over more established programs, but that didn’t inhibit a promising true freshman campaign. Missouri didn’t obstruct a sophomore year breakout, either.

Something went wrong in 2024, though. Burden’s numbers declined across the board, despite playing with the same OC and QB.

I’ll tackle that topic below -- and provide a full look at what'll impact his dynasty value.

Luther Burden Dynasty Values

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Luther Burden Draft Profile

Luther Burden Combine Results

Burden Wastes No Time Building Resume

The St. Louis native made an instant impact at Missouri with the following team shares:

• Targets: 20.2%
• Catches: 18%
• Receiving TDs: 42.8%

Burden managed just 13.4% of the team's receiving yards. He tallied only 8.7 yards per catch, despite an average target depth of 9.7. He added 7 drops -- an ugly 13.2% drop rate.

Still, it’s fair to call his true freshman season a success.

The following year turned up a new role, along with a major shift in production.

Breakout 2023: Burden Proves He’s a Future Pro

Burden hit 90 yards in his first six games of 2023. He scored 5 TDs over that stretch. 

The sophomore transitioned to a primary slot role, which helped him exploit mismatches. And Missouri really favored giving him catch-and-run opportunities. 

Check this out: Burden saw 36.7% of his targets behind the line of scrimmage (per Pro Football Focus). Another 22.5% of his targets came between 0-9 yards.

Burden maximized his touches with the following numbers:

• 3.29 yards per route run
• 8.4 yards after catch per reception
• 14.1 yards per catch

… all with an aDOT of just 8.4 yards. Burden’s drop rate also sank to 4.4%.

So, how would he follow up the breakout in 2024?

In short: Not well.

Burden’s '24 Dip Demands Context, Not Panic

Burden wasn’t awful last fall. He simply didn’t approach the standard set in 2023.

Here’s a statistical look at the two seasons:

We have to consider the decline in Missouri’s QB play. Brady Cook dealt with ankle and wrist injuries, as his adjusted completion rate dropped from 75.4% (2023) to 70.9% (2024).

His YPA declined by a full yard.

Burden’s production still surprised, particularly as a target earner. His share dropped sharply from 34% to 21.4%.

Teammate and fellow WR prospect Theo Wease Jr. -- a likely Day 3 pick -- matched Burden in targets per game (6.8). Not great.

Before we get to the highlights, let’s clean up one misconception about Burden’s skill set …

Not Just a Gadget Guy

At 6’0, 206 pounds, Burden brings fine size. His 4.41-second 40 time shows ample speed.

That speed showed up beyond short routes. Per PFF, he saw a 19.2% deep target rate in 2023. That number rose to 22.3% in 2024.

Across 2023-2024, Burden totaled 19 deep catches for 632 yards and 7 TDs. His PFF receiving grade in that split: a near-perfect 98.3.

Sure, Burden’s known for his yards-after-catch ability. But it’s wrong to call him a strict, short-range slot.

Let’s see him in action below …

Luther Burden Highlights

Games watched: UMass (2024), Boston College (2024), Texas A&M (2024), Kansas State (2023), LSU (2023)

Mizzou’s Offense Ran Through Burden

Get the ball to Luther.

That was typically the game plan for OC Kirby Moore, who joined Missouri in 2023.

And who could blame him?

In 2024, Burden forced a missed tackle every two catches. That rate leads all draft-eligible prospects, per PFF.

This is one of my favorite examples of his YAC ability:

According to PFF, Burden caught 47 screen passes across 2023-24. That represented 31.9% of his total catches over that span.

Burden was also put in motion and given the occasional handoff.

Here’s another look at this post-catch elusiveness, this time on a pass out of the backfield. Burden finds a hole in the zone and jukes an oncoming defender for extra yards.

Getting Vertical: Burden CAN Win Deep

Burden’s elite trait shows up most often with the ball in his hands.

But he’s often underestimated as a downfield threat.

In 2023, Missouri featured him on a heavy dose of slot fades. He generally tracked the ball well and flashed reliable hands.

Small Hands? No Big Problem

Burden’s hands proved problematic as a freshman. But the past two seasons turned up sub-5% drop rates. 

No cause for concern.

In this final clip, Burden secures the ball after taking a shot from 200-pound DB Dalton Brooks.

Note: Burden measured in with small, 8.5-inch hands at the Combine. Clearly, though, that didn't matter for the bulk of his Missouri career.

Next, let’s consider a landing spot with plenty of opportunity …

Luther Burden Team Fit: Tennessee Titans

30-year-old Calvin Ridley fills the WR1 role. Fine.

But behind him, there’s little to like:

• Treylon Burks (coming off an ACL tear)
• Van Jefferson
• James Proche
• Bryce Oliver

So Tennessee could use a playmaker – and a dominant YAC threat – for likely QB Cam Ward.

The Titans hold the 35th overall pick, putting them in Burden’s expected draft range.

Dynasty Value Conclusion: Bet on Burden's Traits and Early Production

I'm more bullish than bearish on Burden’s college profile.

His 2023 showed a rich blend of strong hands, downfield speed, and YAC ability. The early breakout age of 19 certainly signals an advanced prospect.

Burden’s Combine performance backed up his tape. He ran a 4.41-second 40 at a cut 6’0, 206 pounds.

But it’s the production dip in 2024 that’ll likely give some teams (and fantasy managers) pause. Burden was once considered a Round 1 lock. Now, it won’t be a surprise if he slips to Day 2.

Is that a huge deal? I don’t think so, particularly if he lands with a creative OC. 

Burden currently ranks third in both Draft Sharks Model Score and our dynasty WR rookie rankings.

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