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If Ben Johnson Can Turn Caleb Williams into a Fantasy Stud, This Might Get Fun ...

Chicago Bears 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• TE Colston Loveland
• WR Luther Burden
• LG Joe Thuney
• C Drew Dalman
• RB Jonah Jackson
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus
• WR Devin Duvernay
• RB Kyle Monangai

Key Departures

• WR Keenan Allen
• RB Darrynton Evans

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Ben Johnson and OC Declan Doyle In
• HC Matt Eberflus and OC Shane Waldron Out

Caleb Williams

Bottom Line: New Staff Sets Up Williams For Success

Williams flashed some rushing upside and accuracy in the short area as a rookie but struggled with sack avoidance and consistency. With a new offensive system under Ben Johnson and an improved supporting cast, he’s a 2025 breakout candidate.

2024 Summary

Williams' Rookie Season a Rollercoaster

In his rookie campaign, Williams finished as the QB16 in total fantasy points (305.4) and tied for QB25 in points per game (18.0). 

He threw for 3,541 yards (17th) and 20 TDs (T-15th) while adding 483 rushing yards (7th among QBs) but failed to find the end zone on the ground. 

His season included five top-10 finishes but also six games outside the top 24, making him a volatile weekly play.

He Showed Aggression as Runner and Passer

Williams played all 17 games and was utilized as both a passer and creator outside the pocket when plays broke down. 

He ran 82 times, generating 372 scramble yards (4th) and 117 designed rushing yards (9th), though he finished with 0 rushing TDs vs. 2.0 expected. 

His 13.0% deep throw rate (8th-highest) showed aggressive intent.

The Passing Metrics ... Not Good

 Among 34 QBs with 250+ pass attempts, Williams ranked:

• 29th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
• 23rd in adjusted completion rate (72.6%)
• 29th in on-target pass percentage
• 32nd in bad throw percentage

His deep passing proved particularly rough: 30th in completion rate, 33rd in PFF grade. But he excelled in the short game, ranking top-10 in accuracy and PFF grade on throws from 0-10 yards. 

He also held a strong 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate (10th).

Here's What Held Williams Back

Chicago ranked 28th in points, but 8th in pace with a 56.6% neutral pass rate.  

Protection was average (15th in PFF pass-blocking grade), though Williams had the ninth-most time to throw for QBs with at least 135 pass attempts at 2.92 seconds.

Despite this, Williams was 33rd among 34 qualifiers in pressure-to-sack ratio (28.2%).

The scheme lacked cohesion as a whole and that potentially changes in 2025 with the arrival of Ben Johnson.

Williams Underperformed But the Rookie Indicators Are Strong

Williams underperformed relative to expectations in 2024:

• QB13 in expected points per game
• QB21 in actual points per game

He was the eighth-biggest underachiever at QB, largely due to inefficiency on deep throws and zero rushing TDs. 

Still, the rushing volume and quick-game efficiency were strong rookie indicators, especially if he is placed in a more competent scheme.

Healthy Track Record Continues

Williams played all 17 games in his rookie season with no significant injuries. 

He did twist his ankle on the last play against the Cardinals in Week 9 but was able to play the following week.

He played through a severe hamstring injury in 2022.

Williams has never missed a collegiate or NFL game due to injury.  

He enters 2025 healthy and with a full offseason to build rapport with a revamped offense.

2025 Expectations

Elite Weapons Abound in Revamped Bears Offense

Williams will return as the Bears’ locked-in starter with no threat to his role. 

The rest of the Bears’ QB room consists of third-year UDFA Tyson Bagent and veteran Case Keenum.

Chicago has surrounded Williams with one of the NFL’s richest receiving rooms. 

Veteran WR D.J. Moore returns, while WR Rome Odunze looks to have a second-year breakout.

The Bears also added two more weapons in the NFL Draft, bringing in TE Colston Loveland in the first round and WR Luther Burden in the second.

TE Cole Kmet returns to provide a stable option, while WRs Devin Duvernay and Olamide Zaccheaus were added in free agency.

RB D’Andre Swift retains the starting role, with Roschon Johnson remaining a potential short-yardage back.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

The run game, paired with a creative play-caller, gives Williams a high floor and potential for a major second-year leap.

Enter Ben Johnson: The Perfect Match

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%. 

His creative passing concepts and rhythm-based scheme are a perfect fit for Williams’ quick release and mobility. 

Expect more structured plays, easier reads, and red-zone creativity — areas that should elevate Williams' consistency and scoring potential.

D'Andre Swift

Bottom Line: Big Question Mark In New System

Swift produced solid fantasy numbers in 2024 but continued to underperform on a per-touch basis, with career-low rushing efficiency and target share. With Ben Johnson now calling plays in Chicago, Swift's role and value in 2025 will hinge on his usage within the system.

2024 Summary

RB2 Finish, But Trended Down

Swift played all 17 games and finished as RB19 in total PPR fantasy points (214.5) and RB21 in points per game (12.6). 

He totaled 959 rushing yards (18th) with 6 rushing TDs, adding 42 catches for 386 yards on 52 targets. 

Most of his production came early, with four top-12 finishes before Week 9. He had eight games outside the top-24.

Swift's Efficiency Hit Career Lows

Swift saw a solid workload in the passing game. He had 52 targets (15th among RBs), with a 9.2% target share, similar to 2023.

He operated as Chicago’s lead runner throughout the season but only saw 10 carries inside the five-yard line (40% of the team’s inside-5 work).

Swift posted career-worst marks in:

• 3.8 yards per carry (40th among RBs with at least 75 attempts)
• 2.43 yards after contact per attempt (48th)
• minus-0.69 rush yards over expected per attempt (worst among 47 qualifiers)
• 0.13 missed tackles forced per attempt (41st)

 Even in the receiving game, he continued to slip:

• 60.3 PFF receiving grade (33rd of 37)
• 1.16 yards per route (21st)

Despite a few spike fantasy games, Swift’s underlying metrics show cracks in his long-term effectiveness.

Run Blocking Held Up, but Swift Failed to Capitalize

Swift ran behind a top-10 run-blocking line (8th in ESPN Success Rate) but the Bears' offense overall struggled for volume and consistency, ranking 28th in total plays (62.6 per game). 

They leaned more on the pass late in the season, with a 59.5% pass rate and 56.6% neutral pass rate.

Despite the solid run blocking, Swift’s dip in effectiveness led to leaning on the pass a bit more.   

After a breakout 2021 season, Swift’s rushing efficiency has declined every year. 

His target share dropped from 17.3% in 2021 to under 10% in back-to-back seasons, and he's had back-to-back years with bottom-tier PFF receiving grades among RBs with 30+ targets, ranking 36th and 29th respectively.

His yards per route rank did improve from 37th in 2023 to 23rd in 2024.

2024 saw Swift have his lowest yards per carry (3.8), yards before contact per attempt (2.0), and rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.69).

Swift’s career is trending downward, though reuniting with HC Ben Johnson who coached him in Detroit could help spring it back to life.

He Has Stayed Durable, At Least

Swift has not missed a game due to injury since 2022 when an ankle sprain and shoulder A/C joint sprain caused him to miss time.

He has stayed relatively healthy since leaving the Lions.

2025 Expectations

Swift Still Leads the Backfield

Swift enters the final year of his deal in Chicago but surprisingly faces little competition for carries. 

Third-year RB Roschon Johnson remains on the roster but doesn’t look like a serious threat for the lead job.

The Bears also drafted RB Kyle Monangai in Round 7 of the NFL Draft, but he will compete with Travis Homer for the No. 3 RB spot on the team.

Swift should be locked into another starting role with upside to handle most of the rushing and receiving work on the team.

More Weapons = Less Work

The Bears added offensive talent across the board that could have them leaning more on the pass.

They return Caleb Williams at QB, with a deep WR corps headlined by D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and rookie Luther Burden.

TEs Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet will also be earning targets, which could take some receiving work away from Swift.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

Swift Runs it Back with Ben Johnson

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%. 

Johnson coached Swift in 2022, giving him the lowest carries per game of his career with 7.1 and a 24.6% carry share over 14 games.

Swift did have a 14.4% target share that year, the second highest of his career.

The Bears don’t have the RB depth for Swift to log so few carries again, so expect more carries per game than he saw in 2022.

Roschon Johnson

Bottom Line: New Offense Presents Sleeper Potential

Johnson remains the Bears’ No. 2 RB with no major additions to the roster. He was effective at the goal line last year, scoring six rushing TDs, and may hold a similar role this year. He enters 2025 as a TD-dependent depth piece in a retooled offense under Ben Johnson.

2024 Summary

Johnson’s Role Small, but Productive in Red Zone

In 13 games, Johnson totaled just 150 rushing yards (83rd) but racked up 6 rushing TDs (tied for 24th), showcasing his effectiveness at the goal line. 

He added 16 receptions for 104 yards on 20 targets and finished with 77.4 fantasy points (RB54), averaging 6.0 points per game (T-54th). 

He posted two top-24 weekly finishes, both driven by TDs.

He Had Low Volume with High Conversion

Johnson was used almost exclusively at the goal line and in short-yardage situations, accounting for 40% of the Bears’ inside-the-5 carries, despite handling just 55 total rushes. 

He was rarely used between the 20s and had a minor role in the passing game. 

His profile mirrors a red-zone hammer more than a traditional backup.

Bottom-Tier Metrics Across the Board

Johnson’s efficiency was bottom-tier across the board:

• 2.8 yards per carry (Last among RBs with 50+ carries)
• 2.08 yards after contact per attempt (64th)
• 0.0% Breakaway Run Rate (65th)
• 29.2 Pro Football Focus Elusiveness Rating (61st)

In the passing game, he managed a modest 0.70 yards per route (51st) and had a 60.3 PFF receiving grade (33rd). But he struggled in pass protection (28.4 PFF pass-blocking grade, 43rd of 65 RBs).

Johnson’s Sophomore Season Was a Mixed Bag

Johnson ran behind a top-10 run-blocking line (8th in ESPN Success Rate), but the Bears' offense overall struggled for volume and consistency, ranking 28th in total play (62.6 per game).

They leaned more on the pass late in the season, with a 59.5% pass rate and 56.6% neutral pass rate.

Johnson saw a dip in his yards per carry from 4.3 in 2023 to 2.7 in 2024.

His TDs did increase from two to six, while his longest run in 2023 was 29 yards compared to only nine yards in 2024.

Concussions Create Durability Questions

Johnson missed two games in both 2023 and 2024 with concussions.

Those are the only missed games of his NFL career.

2025 Expectations

Can He Be More Than a TD Vulture?

With D’Andre Swift still under contract and likely receiving early-down and passing-down work, Johnson is expected to remain in a specialized short-yardage role.

New HC Ben Johnson has traditionally utilizes two backs, as seen with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery over the past few seasons. 

Even so, Johnson’s expectation is for only a complementary role, though if he flashes, he could earn more carries.

The Bears added offensive talent across the board that could have them leaning more on the pass.

They return Caleb Williams at QB, with a deep WR corps headlined by D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and rookie Luther Burden.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

Ben Johnson Splits Carries

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%. 

Over the first 13 regular season games last year, Johnson split carries evenly among David Montgomery (13.8 carries) and Jahmyr Gibbs (13.7 carries).

Montgomery led all RBs with 11.3 expected rush TDs over that span.

If Johnson does find his way into the Montgomery role, it could be lucrative for his fantasy output.

D.J. Moore

Bottom Line: Top-12 Upside in New Scheme

Moore maintained a strong target share and reception total in 2024, but career-low efficiency metrics and limited scoring capped his fantasy ceiling. He heads into 2025 as a WR2 with top-12 upside tied to how quickly QB Caleb Williams and HC Ben Johnson can elevate the Bears' passing attack. Moore could easily finish with WR1 numbers if the offense blossoms. 

2024 Summary

Many Targets But Modest Yards Made for Volatile Season

Moore played all 17 games and finished as the WR14 in total PPR fantasy points (238.1), but just WR27 in points per game (14.0). He posted 98 catches (9th), 966 yards (26th), and 6 TDs (T-28th) on 140 targets (T-10th). 

While he logged four top-12 finishes, he also had seven games outside the top 36, making him a volatile weekly play in a low-volume passing offense.

Moore remained Chicago's clear No. 1 WR, handling a 24.7% target share — his fourth straight season between 24–27%. 

He aligned 71.2% wide and 27.9% in the slot, showcasing versatile usage. 

Per Fantasy Points, he remained a go-to option with a 31.8% first-read rate (11th among WRs with 25+ targets) and a strong 71% catch rate (30th).

Moore Shined with Ball in His Hands

2024 was one of Moore’s least efficient season:

• 1.39 yards per route (59th among WRs with 50+ targets)
• 71.6 Pro Football Focus receiving grade (48th)
• Career lows with a 7.5 average target depth and 9.9 yards per catch

Moore remained effective with the ball in his hands, averaging 6.0 yards after catch per reception (13th) and +0.7 yards after catch over expectation. 

According to Next Gen Stats, he also created 3.4 yards of average separation (12th), showing that he’s still consistently getting open.

Broken Scheme, Rookie QB Held Back Moore

Chicago’s 2024 offense ranked 28th in total plays but played at a top-10 pace. 

QB Caleb Williams was ineffective throwing deep, ranking 30th among 35 QBs in completion rate on passes over 25 yards. The lack of deep completions dragged down Moore’s yards per catch.

Williams’ rookie inconsistencies and a poor scheme didn’t help Moore unlock his full potential.

Moore's 2024 stat line mirrored previous years in terms of volume, but he dipped in efficiency and explosiveness. 

His career lows in YPC and aDOT came despite maintaining a top-15 target share. 

He has averaged 7 receiving TDs per season in Chicago, outpacing his 4.2 average from his time in Carolina. 

One of the League’s Most Durable WRs Since 2020

Moore has not missed a game due to injury since 2020. 

He remains one of the healthiest WRs over the past five seasons.

2025 Expectations

Expect Another Alpha WR Season

Moore enters 2025 as the Bears' No. 1 WR, but the target competition will be tougher than last year.

Second-year WR Rome Odunze will look to develop his role more, while the team also drafted second-round WR Luther Burden.

Chicago also took TE Colston Loveland in the first round and brings back TE Cole Kmet as well. 

HC Ben Johnson’s offense also has often utilized the RB as a pass catcher. He reunites with D’Andre Swift, who had a 14.4% target share with Johnson in 2022.

Moore’s volume could dip slightly, but better offensive design and more efficient QB play could boost his yardage and scoring chances.

Can Talented Cast Boost Moore's Efficiency?

QB Caleb Williams enters his second season and showed some flashes of the elite NFL prospect he was hyped as.

With new HC Ben Johnson looking to help Williams develop, utilizing Moore will likely be a reliable way to ensure that happens.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

Ben Johnson’s System Could Unlock Moore’s Full Skill Set

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%. 

His creative passing concepts and rhythm-based scheme are a perfect fit for Moore’s versatility.

Expect more structured plays, easier reads, and red-zone creativity — areas that should elevate Williams and lead to more production for Moore.

Rome Odunze

Bottom Line: Draft Odunze’s Upside

Odunze saw strong rookie-year usage and flashed vertical-play upside, but inefficiency and TD variance held him back in fantasy. With a full offseason to build chemistry and HC Ben Johnson taking over the offense, there’s exciting upside here worth drafting. But targets could be harder to come by with new rookie receiving additions to the offense. 

2024 Summary

Odunze’s Rookie Fantasy Letdown

Odunze posted 146.9 PPR fantasy points (WR48) and 8.6 PPR points per game (WR70) across 17 games. 

He caught 54 passes for 734 yards and 3 TDs on 101 targets (33rd among WRs). 

While he had two top-15 fantasy weeks, he finished outside the top 36 in 13 games, making him an unreliable option despite steady involvement.

Deep Threat Duties Meet Lackluster Results

Odunze earned a 17.8% target share, playing 64.9% of his snaps out wide and 34.8% from the slot. 

He ran the seventh most routes among WRs yet finished just 48th in total fantasy points. 

He was used as a vertical weapon, with a 14.3-yard average target depth (10th highest) and 24% of his targets coming 20+ yards downfield.

Odunze’s deep usage came with boom-or-bust results:

• 1.21 yards per route (64th of 84 WRs with 50+ targets)
• 65.5 PFF receiving grade (60th)
• 8.8% drop rate (23rd)

Despite a solid 3.1-yard average separation (per Next Gen Stats), his catch rate (55.1%) and TD underperformance (3 actual vs. 7.0 expected) limited his fantasy scoring.

Bears’ Scheme, Caleb’s Deep Ball Hurt Odunze’s Output

Chicago’s 2024 offense ranked 28th in total plays but played at a top-10 pace. 

QB Caleb Williams was ineffective throwing deep, ranking 30th among 35 QBs in completion rate on passes over 25 yards. The lack of deep completions dragged down Odunze’s production as he was often targeted deep.

Williams’ rookie inconsistencies and a poor scheme didn’t help Odunze unlock his full potential as a rookie.

2025 Expectations

Watch Out for Target Share Squeeze

Odunze projects to open 2025 as the Bears’ No. 2 WR behind D.J. Moore, but he faces increased competition for targets with rookie second-round WR Luther Burden. 

The Bears also added TE Colston Loveland in the first round and bring back TE Cole Kmet.

HC Ben Johnson’s offense also has often utilized the RB as a pass catcher. He reunites with D’Andre Swift, who had a 14.4% target share with Johnson in 2022.

Odunze could remain the deep threat, in line with Jameson Williams’ role under Johnson. 

Can the Supporting Cast Help Odunze?

QB Caleb Williams enters his second season and showed some flashes of the elite NFL prospect he was hyped as.

With new HC Ben Johnson looking to help Williams develop, utilizing Odunze to stretch the field could help that along.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

Ben Johnson Could Unlock Odunze’s Downfield Potential

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%. 

His creative passing concepts and rhythm-based scheme are a perfect fit to help the offense thrive.

Expect more structured plays, easier reads, and red-zone creativity — areas that should elevate Williams and lead to more production for Odunze.

Luther Burden III

Bottom Line: Bet on Limited Rookie Season

Burden enters the NFL as a dynamic slot weapon with elite after-catch ability and alpha-level college production. While his rookie-year target volume may be limited due to the plethora of options on the Bears, his efficiency and youth give him exciting upside if things break in his favor.

2024 Summary

Burden Took Big Step Back in 2024

In his final season at Missouri, Burden had a huge 2023 sophomore season at Missouri, racking up 86 catches for 1,212 yards and nine TDs across 12 games. 

He accounted for 35% of his team’s receiving yards and 39% of the TDs while averaging a big 3.29 yards per route.

Burden’s raw production tanked in 2024, though. He mustered just 676 yards and six scores on 61 catches. He averaged 2.32 yards per route and accounted for only 25% of Missouri’s receiving yards (although he did score half the team’s receiving TDs).

Slot Weapon With YAC Upside

Burden lined up primarily in the slot but showed capability outside, commanding a 19.9% target share on a strong 37.7% route rate. 

He had a 9.1-yard average depth of target, indicating a heavy role in intermediate areas with significant yards-after-catch upside. 

His 50% market share of receiving TDs ranked 2nd among Combine WRs.

Burden’s Dip Wasn’t All on Him

Burden showcased solid advanced metrics in 2024 despite a dip in production from 2023:

• 2.32 yards per route
• 1.8 yards per team pass attempt
• 80.2 PFF receiving grade
• 37.7% Dominator Rating
• 50.0% share of receiving TDs (2nd highest among Combine WRs)

His contested target rate (16.7%) was middle of the pack among Combine WRs, but his game thrives more on separation and YAC than physicality at the catch point.

Burden Enters NFL Healthy

Burden played 38 games over three college seasons and avoided significant injuries, entering the NFL healthy.

He left Missouri’s game against UMass this past season with a shoulder injury, but did not miss any time.

2025 Expectations

Crowded Depth Chart May be Tough to Climb

Burden begins his rookie season behind D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze on the depth chart, which likely limits him to a slot role.

The Bears also took TE Colston Loveland in the first round and bring back TE Cole Kmet.

HC Ben Johnson’s offense also has often utilized the RB as a pass catcher. He reunites with D’Andre Swift, who had a 14.4% target share with Johnson in 2022.

Burden was handpicked by new HC Ben Johnson, and his versatility and efficiency could quickly earn him snaps, especially on third downs and schemed touches.

If he plays the slot role, similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown with Johnson on the Lions, there is plenty of target upside despite the multitude of weapons.

QB Caleb Williams enters his second season and showed some flashes of the elite NFL prospect he was hyped as.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

Ben Johnson’s Offense Could Favor Burden in Slot

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%. 

His creative passing concepts and rhythm-based scheme are a perfect fit for Burden’s versatility, but that may not come until Burden has more experience.

Colston Loveland

Bottom Line: Target Competition Limits Immediate Breakout

Loveland enters the NFL as one of the most athletic young TEs in the league. His fit in Ben Johnson’s TE-friendly offense makes him a long-term breakout candidate, although he faces stiff target competition in 2025. He’s only a TE2 target in redraft leagues.

2024 Summary

Loveland a College Standout

In just 10 games at Michigan, Loveland racked up 56 catches for 582 yards and 5 TDs, averaging 10.4 yards per catch. 

He registered a massive 42.0% dominator rating (share of team’s receiving yards and TDs), second-highest among Combine TEs.

His efficiency and target volume positioned him as one of college football’s most productive TEs on a per-route basis.

He Dominated Michigan Receiving

Loveland operated as Michigan’s featured receiving TE, running a high percentage of routes and commanding a 34.4% market share of team receptions in 2024. 

He was a true mismatch piece across formations, big enough to work in-line but fluid enough to operate out of the slot and as an intermediate separator.

Elite Metrics Cemented First-Round Status

Loveland’s advanced metrics proved elite:

• 2.67 yards per route (third among Combine TEs)
• 2.2 yards per team pass attempt
• 90.6 PFF receiving grade (third among Combine TEs)
• 45.5% of team receiving TDs

That production made him highly coveted in the NFL Draft, landing him as the 10th-overall pick.

Loveland Puts Key Injuries Behind Him

Loveland missed one game in 2024 due to an A/C joint sprain. He played through the injury and had surgery in January of 2024.

He missed the Ohio State game in 2024 due to a concussion.

He has been cleared for practice heading into the season

2025 Expectations

Will He Share Time With Kmet?

Loveland joins a Bears team with Cole Kmet already in place. We should see some two-TE sets in 2024.

With his draft capital, there is little doubt that Loveland will pass Kmet on the depth chart sooner rather than later. 

The team also brought in Durham Smythe from the Dolphins as a blocking option near the goal line.

The Bears' pass-catching depth chart is crowded with WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden all commanding targets, which could limit Loveland’s week-to-week volume.

Strong Supporting Cast May Limit Targets but Boost Efficiency

QB Caleb Williams enters his second season and showed some flashes of the elite NFL prospect he was hyped as.

With new HC Ben Johnson looking to help Williams develop, utilizing a checkdown option like Loveland may be crucial.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson. 

If the OL blocks effectively, it may free Loveland to run more routes.

Ben Johnson’s TE-Friendly Offense Tempts Early Success

Ben Johnson consistently featured TEs in Detroit, with TE target shares of 15.8%, 22.4%, and 18.1% from 2022-2024. 

Sam LaPorta earned a nearly 20% target share as a rookie, and Johnson’s system prioritizes TEs on crossers, seams, and play-action looks — all strengths in Loveland’s game.

The scheme favors heavy usage for Loveland, especially in the red zone.

Cole Kmet

Bottom Line: Leave Kmet on Waiver Wire

Kmet flashed with the occasional big game in 2024, but the Bears drafting Colston Loveland likely limits his fantasy value this season. 

2024 Summary

Kmet Had Spike Weeks but Volume Dried Up

In 15 games, Kmet posted 118.4 PPR fantasy points (TE19) and 7.9 points per game (TE22). 

He caught 47 passes (T-22nd) for 474 yards (25th) and 4 TDs, despite seeing just 55 targets (29th). 

He had two top-12 finishes, but also seven games outside the top 24 TEs.

Role Shrank in 2024

Kmet played a hybrid role, lining up 54.0% in the slot and 33.8% in-line. But his 9.7% target share was a career low, down from 17-18% in previous seasons. 

He remained highly efficient on a per-target basis (85.5% catch rate, 2nd among TEs with 25+ targets) but rarely served as a first read (9.5%) or focal point of the offense.

Efficiency Metrics Proved Poor

 Kmet’s per-route production and after-catch impact were modest:

• 0.96 yards per route run (38th among TEs with 30+ targets)
• 4.2 yards after catch per reception (29th)
• 59.8 PFF receiving grade (35th)

He continued to separate well (3.9-yard average separation, 8th among TEs) but offered little explosiveness after the catch (-0.3 yards after catch over expected). His hands remained dependable, with a low 2.2% drop rate.

Bears Offense Left Tight End Behind

Chicago’s offense was inefficient and low-volume in 2024, ranking 28th in total plays despite operating at a top-10 pace. 

The passing game favored WRs, and the TE target share fell to 9.7% for Kmet.

After three straight years of 17%+ target share, Kmet’s involvement cratered in 2024. 

His raw efficiency and catch rate stayed intact, but the drop shows why new HC Ben Johnson prioritized upgrading the TE position in the NFL Draft.

Durability Remains Elite for Kmet

Kmet has not missed a game due to injury in his NFL career.

2025 Expectations

Loveland Threatens Kmet's Livelihood

With second-round rookie Colston Loveland entering the fold and Ben Johnson taking over as HC, Kmet’s role is on the ropes.

Loveland will likely take over the primary TE role sooner rather than later, relegating Kmet to two-TE sets.

The team also brought in Durham Smythe from the Dolphins as a blocking option near the goal line.

The Bears' pass-catching depth chart is crowded with WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden all commanding targets.

More Weapons Likely Mean Even Fewer Kmet Targets

QB Caleb Williams enters his second season and showed some flashes of the elite NFL prospect he was hyped as.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson. 

If the OL blocks effectively, it may free Kmet to run more routes in 2-TE sets.

Ben Johnson’s System Loves TEs but ...

Ben Johnson consistently featured TEs in Detroit, with TE target shares of 15.8%, 22.4%, and 18.1% from 2022-2024. 

Sam LaPorta earned a nearly 20% target share as a rookie, and Johnson’s system prioritizes TEs on crossers, seams, and play-action looks.

How Do Bears Fit in the Rankings?

Does that Chicago player you're considering make sense as a draft target? Only one way to find out.

Check the fantasy football rankings for your format now to see if we like him as much as you do.

The video below finds Jared and Matt discussing where Caleb Williams fits in the QB rankings ... 

Next Up

High Upside Fantasy Football Players 2025: Who's This Year's Brock Bowers?

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.