Aaron Rodgers Might Save the Steelers...Or Speed Up the Crash

Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Aaron Rodgers

Bottom Line: Age and Durability Create Low Floor

Now 41 and joining a run-heavy Steelers offense with few reliable weapons, Rodgers faces a sharp philosophical change and real questions about ceiling, durability, and how much he has left. View him as a low-end QB2.

2024 Summary

Inconsistent Weekly Finishes Made Rodgers a Tough Start

Rodgers started all 17 games for the Jets and finished with 3,897 passing yards, 28 TDs, and 11 INTs on 584 attempts. 

He added 107 rushing yards on 22 carries, but no rushing TDs. 

He ranked 15th among QBs in total fantasy points but just 23rd in points per game.

He had five top-12 weekly fantasy finishes, but also three finishes outside the top-24. 

The Old Man Ain't Running Anymore

Rodgers was part of a pass-heavy Jets offense that ranked fourth in overall pass rate and second in neutral pass rate. His 584 attempts ranked second in the league.

Rodgers also stayed in the pocket longer than a handkerchief. His 22 rushing attempts set a new career low among healthy starting seasons. His 1.3 carries per game marked a fourth straight season of resetting his low in that category.

Good WRs Hid QB's Declining Precision

Rodgers struggled by almost every efficiency measure:

• 72.3 adjusted completion percentage (27th among QBs with 300+ dropbacks)
• -3.1% completion rate over expected (last)
• 54.1% highly accurate rate (8th)

55.8% of his passing yardage came after the catch, which ranked eighth highest in the league.

These metrics point to declining precision and limited downfield aggression, masked by strong play after the catch from WRs Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.

Rodgers Limited Despite Friendly System

Rodgers played in a high-volume, pass-heavy Jets offense with elite usage near the goal line (1st in red-zone pass rate and pass rate over expected). 

The offensive line gave him average protection, finishing 23rd in ESPN’s pass-block win rate.

Rodgers has now gone three straight seasons with a sub-7.5 yards per attempt and under 4.5% TD rate — both signs of decline from his MVP years.

Rodgers Held Up This Time, But History Says Be Cautious

Rodgers returned from a Week 1 Achilles tear in 2023 and remained healthy through 2024.  

But his injury history is long, with two clavicle fractures (2013, 2017), multiple calf/hamstring injuries, and a broken thumb in 2022. 

He turns 42 in December and remains a durability risk despite a full 2024 campaign.

2025 Expectations

Rodgers Locked In As Starter

Rodgers will be the Steelers’ starting QB, with Mason Rudolph the likely backup.

Pittsburgh drafted Will Howard in the sixth round as a developmental option, and the team still has Skylar Thompson under contract.

Metcalf and Not Much Else: Rodgers May Have to Carry This Group

Rodgers will be throwing to a questionable WR corps outside of D.K. Metcalf.

Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson offer some young athletic upside, while veterans Robert Woods and Scottie Miller add depth.

Overall, it remains one of the worst WR units in football, though the Steelers have been kicking the tires on acquiring another pass catcher.

TEs Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith offer reliable, but unexciting, options in the passing game.

The OL will return four of five starters from last season, with last year’s first round pick Troy Fautanu filling the final spot.

RT Broderick Jones moves over to LT to protect Rodgers’ blindside — a shaky situation at best.

Volume Could Vanish Under Arthur Smith

Rodgers moves from one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL to one of the run-heaviest. 

Last season, the Steelers ranked 29th in pass rate (50.7%).

Since 2019, OC Arthur Smith’s pass rates have consistently ranked near the bottom of the league, and the post-Week 7 Steelers called runs on nearly 55% of plays.

Rodgers’ presence and experience could push the Steelers to pass the ball more, but Smith’s tendencies will always lean on the run.

Jaylen Warren

Bottom Line: Warren Has Sneaky Upside in Early Season

Warren remained a nice change-of-pace option in 2024, but limited scoring and inconsistent usage capped his fantasy value. He heads into 2025 with some standalone PPR appeal and upside if rookie RB Kaleb Johnson takes time to develop.

2024 Summary

Lack of Scoring Capped Warren’s Upside

Warren finished RB39 in total fantasy points (124.1) and RB43 in points per game (8.1) over 15 games. 

He totaled 511 rushing yards (38th) and 310 receiving yards (19th) on 38 catches (21st), but scored just one TD all season. 

Despite posting four top-24 weekly finishes, he failed to register a single top-10 performance, making him more of a floor play than a league-winner.

Warren Held a Clear Role In Najee’s Shadow

Warren handled a 29.9% carry share, playing behind Najee Harris but staying active in the passing game with 47 targets (24th among RBs). 

He ran 78 zone and 31 gap concepts, functioning as the Steelers' primary passing-down back. 

His role grew in games with Russell Wilson, averaging 8.5 carries and 3.8 targets per game compared to just 5.0 carries and 2.0 targets with Justin Fields.

Tough to Tackle But Tougher to Trust in Pass Pro

Warren remained one of the league’s better tackle-breakers and pass-game assets:

• 4.3 yards per carry (23rd), boosted by 4.5 over his final 11 games
• 3.20 yards after contact per attempt (16th among RBs with 75+ carries)
• 82.2 PFF Elusive Rating (13th)
• 1.51 yards per route (8th among RBs)

However, his run efficiency was league-average (-0.11 rush yards over expected per attempt, 34th) and his pass-blocking grade (23.2) ranked third worst among RBs, limiting his trust in critical downs.

Run-First and Role-Friendly: Warren Quietly Benefited from the System

After Week 7, Pittsburgh leaned run-heavy under OC Arthur Smith with QB Russell Wilson at the helm, ranking 27th in pass rate and 25th in neutral pass rate. 

That shift fit Warren’s style, and he averaged 9.6 PPR points per game with Wilson compared to 4.5 with Fields. 

The Steelers ranked 18th in ESPN’s run-blocking success rate (71%).

Warren’s 2024 mirrored his 2023 usage as a secondary back with explosive flashes but continued struggles to find the end zone. 

He's still never scored a receiving TD on 127 career receptions, despite having 3.5 expected receiving TDs over his career, including 1.5 in 2024.

Another Minor Injury Setback

A preseason hamstring injury and knee injury in Week 3 hindered Warren early in 2024, limiting his explosiveness out of the gate (3.1 yards per carry through Week 4).

He missed two games in total.

Warren also suffered a hamstring injury back in 2022, which cost him one game.

2025 Expectations

Warren Faces Challenge From Rookie

Warren will split backfield work with third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson but will likely retain the passing-down role to start the season. 

If Johnson misses time, Warren’s usage could spike into the high-end RB2 range.

The Steelers did sign veteran RB Kenneth Gainwell, as well as journeymen Trey Sermon and Evan Hull. None of them should threaten Warren’s role.

The Offense Just Got a Whole Lot Better

Pittsburgh solidified the QB position by signing Aaron Rodgers in June. While no longer an elite passer, Rodgers will bring stability to Pittsburgh’s offense this season.

At WR, the Steelers swapped out George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf.

The Steelers return most of their starting OL from last season with OT Broderick Jones and interior OL Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick. 2024 first round pick Troy Fautanu is expected to start at RT.

Arthur Smith + Aaron Rodgers = Warren Boost?

OC Arthur Smith’s offenses have historically emphasized the run, with pass rates often hovering around 50%. 

Last season, the Steelers had a 50.7% pass rate overall, but it rose to 52.6% with Russell Wilson at QB (which ranked 27th in the league).

Smith does like to play a bit more uptempo than expected with 64.1 plays per game last season, ranking 11th fastest.

Adding Aaron Rodgers could lead to a higher pass rate this season. More passing may favor Warren over Johnson.

Expect Warren to remain a situational receiving weapon unless injuries change the pecking order.

Kaleb Johnson

Bottom Line: RB3 Entry Point with an Intriguing Ceiling

Johnson enters the NFL as a physical, downhill runner with strong balance, elite tackle-breaking ability, and potentially sneaky receiving upside. He fits the Steelers’ identity, but may lose receiving work early to Jaylen Warren. Johnson should be a solid RB3 as a rookie with upside if he gets a larger than expected workload.

2024 Summary

Johnson Comes Off Dominant Final Season

Johnson broke out in his final year at Iowa, rushing 240 times for 1,537 yards (6.4 YPC) and 21 TDs over 12 games.

He also added 22 receptions for 188 yards and two TDs, rounding out a dominant workhorse season. 

After a sophomore slump in 2023, Johnson rebounded with a top-tier production profile as a lead back.

He Displayed More Than Just Rushing Ability

In 2024, Johnson handled 63.9% of Iowa’s rushing yards and saw a career-high 25 targets, proving capable as a true three-down back. 

He ran routes on 11.9% of team pass plays, lined up outside or in the slot on 5.9% of snaps, and boasted a 10.5% target share, fifth among Combine RBs. 

He was a bell cow in both short-yardage and base-down situations.

Johnson Rose Above His Surroundings

Johnson's 2024 advanced metrics showcase his potential:

• 4.42 yards after contact per attempt (4th among Combine RBs)
• 0.28 missed tackles forced per attempt (7th)
• 131.5 PFF Elusive Rating (6th)
• 11.7% breakaway rate (5th)
• 1.2 rush yards over expected (3rd) 

In the receiving game, he earned a 65.3 PFF receiving grade and averaged 1.29 yards per route. Both marks were average among Combine RBs, showing that he may cede that work to another back in the NFL.

Injury Questions Answered By Large Workload

Johnson suffered an ankle injury in 2023 that caused him to miss three games and hindered his play throughout the season.

He stayed healthy in 2024 and enters the NFL with no injury concerns.

2025 Expectations

Steelers May Have Found Next Early-Down Workhorse

Drafted in the third round (pick 83), Johnson will compete for a role with veteran RB Jaylen Warren. 

Johnson likely profiles in the Najee Harris role as a between the tackles runner, which fits OC Arthur Smith’s offense well. 

Warren will likely handle most of the passing down work unless Johnson showcases the talent to take over a full three-down role.

The Steelers did sign veteran RB Kenneth Gainwell as well as journeymen Trey Sermon and Evan Hull. None of them should threaten Warren’s role.

Rodgers, Metcalf, Stable Line Give Johnson a Shot

Pittsburgh solidified the QB position by signing Aaron Rodgers in June. While no longer an elite passer, Rodgers will bring stability to Pittsburgh’s offense this season.

At WR, the Steelers swapped out George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf.

The Steelers return most of their starting OL from last season with OT Broderick Jones and interior OL Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick. 2024 first round pick Troy Fautanu is expected to start at RT.

Last season, the Steelers ranked 18th in ESPN’s run-blocking success rate.

Arthur Smith’s System Made for Backs Like Johnson

Arthur Smith’s offenses have historically emphasized the run, with pass rates often hovering around 50%. 

Last season, the Steelers had a 50.7% pass rate overall, but it rose to 52.6% with Russell Wilson at QB (which ranked 27th in the league).

Smith does like to play a bit more uptempo than expected with 64.1 plays per game last season, ranking 11th fastest.

More passing may favor Warren over Johnson, but that would require the Steelers defense to take a step back.

D.K. Metcalf

Bottom Line: Plenty of Upside; Will Volume Match?

Metcalf’s 2024 season with Seattle was a step back in fantasy consistency despite elite deep usage and a solid catch rate. Now in Pittsburgh, he brings field-stretching ability to a run-heavy offense that may struggle to support spike weeks at the same volume he saw in Seattle. Expect WR2 numbers for the season based on volume despite plenty of volatility.

2024 Summary

Metcalf Wasn’t a WR1 in 2024

Metcalf totaled 195.2 fantasy points (WR31) and 12.8 PPR points per game (WR33) over 15 games. 

He caught 66 passes for 992 yards and five TDs on 108 targets. 

Despite leading the league with 32 deep targets and posting four top-24 finishes, he failed to crack 1,000 yards and logged six games outside the top-36 WRs.

Downfield Dominance Came at a Cost

Metcalf maintained a 20.4% target share, his lowest since his rookie season. 

He played primarily outside (86.1% wide) and remained a vertical threat with a 14.0-yard average depth of target (12th among WRs with 50+ targets). A league-high 29.6% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield.

Metcalf posted his lowest efficiency marks since 2019:

• 1.80 yards per route (34th)
• 74.7 PFF receiving grade (35th)
• 4.0 yards after catch per reception (36th)

He wasn’t inefficient by league standards, but relative to his own baseline, it was one of the worst years of Metcalf’s career, driven by middling intermediate usage and declining red-zone connection.

Metcalf Got the Air Yards, JSN Got the Targets

The Seahawks new offense last season seemed to hone in on Metcalf’s deep threat abilities as his primary role.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, playing from the slot, received more targets than Metcalf. 

Seattle was middle-of-the-pack in pass rate and pace, and Metcalf still earned deep volume. 

Metcalf’s usage and mediocre efficiency metrics seemed to spur his trade to the Steelers.

Usage Has Declined for Four Straight Years

Metcalf’s target share has declined four straight seasons (from 26.1% in 2021 to 20.4% in 2024), while his TD rate fell from early-career highs of 12-16% to just 7.6% in 2024. 

He’s still a premier deep threat, but his role has shifted from alpha to volatile field stretcher with limited yards after catch and shrinking red-zone dominance.

It remains to be seen if that will carry over to the Steelers.

Banged Up, But Not Broken

Metcalf played 15 games in 2024, missing two due to an MCL sprain.

In 2023, Metcalf missed one game with a rib injury.

He hasn’t missed any other games in his career due to injury.

2025 Expectations

Targets There for the Taking

Metcalf will serve as the Steelers’ primary outside receiver and the main target on the offense, likely leading the team in most receiving metrics.

With George Pickens traded, there currently is very little competition for targets among the WR group.

The Steelers return WR Calvin Austin, who had 56 targets in 2024, as well as second-year WR Roman Wilson, who got very little work as a rookie.

They brought in Robert Woods in free agency, but he is unlikely to make a major receiving impact.

Even with a low pass rate, Metcalf should dominate the target share on the Steelers.

Rodgers Is Stable and That Might Be Enough

Pittsburgh solidified the QB position by signing Aaron Rodgers in June. While no longer an elite passer, Rodgers will bring stability to Pittsburgh’s offense this season. 

Among 32 qualifying QBs last year, Rodgers ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 22nd in adjusted completion rate
• 25th in yards per attempt
• 15th in Pro Football Focus passing grade

The Steelers return most of their starting OL from last season with OT Broderick Jones and interior OL Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick. 2024 first-round pick Troy Fautanu is expected to get the start at RT.

Last season, the Steelers ranked 13th in ESPN’s pass-blocking success rate (62%).

Metcalf Enters Run-First Scheme with WR1 Opportunity

OC Arthur Smith’s offenses have historically emphasized the run, with pass rates often hovering around 50%. 

Last season, the Steelers had a 50.7% pass rate overall, but it rose to 52.6% with Russell Wilson at QB (which ranked 27th in the league).

Smith does like to play a bit more uptempo than expected with 64.1 plays per game last season, ranking 11th fastest.

Jonnu Smith

Bottom Line: Smith Carries More Risk At a Pricier ADP

Smith delivered as a late-round sleeper in 2024. His ADP sits inside the top-8 TEs for 2025, though, so he’s no longer a clear value.

2024 Summary

Smith Erupts for Career Year

Smith assembled a huge 2024, finishing as the TE4 in PPR points and points per game.

He finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in 10 of 17 games. He recorded six top-five finishes, with five of them coming after Week 10.

And, not surprisingly, he was noticeably better with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.

In 11 games with Tagovailoa, Smith averaged:

• 6.9 targets
• 5.6 catches
• 57 yards
• 0.5 TDs

In six games without Tua, Smith averaged:

• 5.8 targets
• 4.3 catches
• 43 yards
• 0.5 TDs

In total, Smith ranked fourth among TEs in targets (111), catches (88), and receiving yards (884). He tied for second in TDs (8).

A Diverse Role With Surprising Volume

Smith’s 20% target share ranked second on the team behind Tyreek Hill. The veteran TE filled a high-volume short-range role, resulting in a deep target rate of only 3.7%.

HC Mike McDaniel used Smith as a versatile offensive weapon. He played 46% of his passing snaps in the slot, 26.6% inline, and 23.8% out wide, per Pro Football Focus.

Smith Delivers an Efficient Season

Among 33 TEs with 50+ targets, Smith ranked:

• 5th in yards per route run
• 6th in catch rate
• 7th in yards after catch per reception
• 21st in yards per catch

His average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.0 ranked 30th in the same sample.

McDaniel deserves credit for his creative offensive plans. Smith, though, showed he can separate at an above-average level. He tied for 12th out of 43 qualifiers in ESPN’s Open Score.

Miami NEEDED Someone to Emerge

While Tua missed time, Smith benefited from injuries to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill rarely looked 100% healthy while playing through a preseason wrist injury. He underwent surgery this offseason.

Jaylen Waddle missed a pair of late-season games. Smith's fantasy finishes in those games: TE9 and TE14.

Overall, Miami ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points per game. The Fins ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), up slightly from 2023.

Career Highs Across the Board

Smith set career highs in targets, catches, and yards in 2024. He matched a career high in TDs.

Smith’s 2024 wasn’t totally out of the blue. His production came on the heels of a mini rebound in 2023, when he tallied 50-582-3 with Atlanta.

Smith's Run of Good Injury Luck Continues

Smith rides into September with no medical concerns. He’s played 17 games in consecutive seasons.

2025 Expectations

Expect a Dip in Targets on Steelers

Smith joins a Steelers' roster in need of weapons, but Smith will still have some competition for targets.

Pat Freiermuth and Smith will likely split up the TE targets and could make each other moot in terms of fantasy scoring.

But Smith could edge out Freiermuth if he improves on his 40% slot rate from last season.

WR D.K. Metcalf will likely get the lion's share of those targets, but the rest of the WR group leaves a lot to be desired.

QB Aaron Rodgers will want to pass, and his relationship with Smith could be most important for Smith's fantasy value.

Ultimately, expect Smith to fall shy of the 111 targets he earned last season.

Reunited with OC Arthur Smith

Smith will reunite with OC Arthur Smith on the Steelers who coached him in Atlanta.

On the Falcons, Smith was utilized as an in-line TE, slot WR, and even a FB at times. Expect similar deployment on the Steelers.

The Steelers only had a 50.7% pass rate in 2024, but that number should increase due to Rodgers' presence. Arthur Smith's Falcons at a 52.2% in 2023 with Jonnu Smith on the roster.

He could rise to be second on the team in targets if the offense leans into Smith's slot usage.

Temper Your Expectations After Outlier Season

Smith turns 30 in August. Our historical aging curves show that, on average, there’s a production decline of ten percentage points from age 29 to age 30.

Pat Freiermuth

Bottom Line: Uncertain Role With Jonnu Smith

Freiermuth rebounded in 2024 with a top-10 fantasy finish, showing strong hands, red-zone reliability, and versatility across formations. Unfortunately, competing with Jonnu Smith for targets makes Freiermuth a volatile weekly bet.

2024 Summary

Freiermuth Lacked Hype But Not Points

Freiermuth finished TE9 in total fantasy points (172.3) and TE13 in points per game (10.1) over 17 games. 

He posted 65 catches (8th), 653 yards (12th), and seven TDs (T-4th) on 78 targets. 

He notched seven top-12 finishes, making him a regular mid-range fantasy starter.

Freiermuth Surprising as a Slot-First TE

Freiermuth saw a 14.8% target share (16th among TEs), lining up 53.1% in the slot and only 30.1% in-line, emphasizing his role as a route runner over a blocker. 

His volume held steady regardless of QB. In 11 games with Russell Wilson, Freiermuth averaged 4.7 targets, 41.7 yards, and 0.5 TDs. In six games with Justin Fields at QB, Freiermuth averaged 4.3 targets, 32.3 yards, 0.3 TDs.

He was a frequent first read (18.3%, 11th among TEs) and made the most of his targets with an 87.8% catch rate (1st).

Elite Catch Rate, Reliable Routes: Freiermuth Did His Job

Freiermuth remained quietly efficient:

• 1.36 yards per route (23rd among TEs with 30+ targets)
• 69.8 PFF receiving grade (19th)
• 6.4-yard average target depth (23rd)
• 4.3 yards after catch per reception (27th)
• +0.9 YAC over expectation

According to Next Gen stats, his 3.5 average separation (14th) further highlights his ability to win underneath and in the intermediate range.

Even in a Low-Volume Attack, Freiermuth Found His Lane

The Steelers shifted run-heavy under Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson in the second half of 2024, with a 27th-ranked pass rate and -3.6% pass rate over expected. 

Despite the low volume, Freiermuth remained involved, thanks to his slot usage and red-zone role. 

Pittsburgh’s 13th-ranked pass blocking gave him time to get open, while the offense’s 52.6% pass rate limited his weekly ceiling.

Freiermuth's target share has fluctuated year to year (12.7% in 2021, 18.1% in 2022, 13.3% in 2023), but his 2024 campaign solidified him as a trusted, high-efficiency option in the Steelers' offense. 

His seven TDs marked a career high and helped offset modest yardage totals.

After Years of Dings, 2024 Was a Full Go

Freiermuth stayed healthy for all 17 games in 2024, his first year without missing a game due to injury.

In both 2021 and 2022, Freiermuth missed a game due to a concussion.

In 2023, he ended up on IR after Week 5 due to a hamstring injury.

There remain concerns about Freiermuth’s durability.

2025 Expectations

Sharing the Load in a Low-Target Offense

Freiermuth projects as a co-starter at TE with Jonnu Smith in Pittsburgh.

TE Darnell Washington had 25 targets in 2024 and had some plays drawn up for him by Arthur Smith.

Pittsburgh solidified the QB position by signing Aaron Rodgers in June. While no longer an elite passer, Rodgers will bring stability to Pittsburgh’s offense this season. 

Among 32 qualifying QBs last year, Rodgers ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 22nd in adjusted completion rate
• 25th in yards per attempt
• 15th in Pro Football Focus passing grade

The Steelers return most of their starting OL from last season with OT Broderick Jones and interior OL Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick. 2024 first-round pick Troy Fautanu is expected to get the start at RT.

Last season, the Steelers ranked 13th in ESPN’s pass-blocking success rate (62%).

Arthur Smith’s Play Calling Isn’t TE-Friendly, But Freiermuth Survives

OC Arthur Smith’s offenses have historically emphasized the run, with pass rates often hovering around 50%. 

Last season, the Steelers had a 50.7% pass rate overall, but it rose to 52.6% with Russell Wilson at QB (which ranked 27th in the league).

Smith does like to play a bit more uptempo than expected with 64.1 plays per game last season, ranking 11th fastest.

 

How Do Steelers Fit in the Rankings?

Does Pat Friermuth or DK Metcalf make sense as a draft target? Only one way to find out.

Check the fantasy football rankings for your format now to see if we like him as much as you do.

The video below finds Jared and Matt discussing Pat Freiermuth's place in TE rankings ...