What Week 2 Usage Really Told Us

Box scores lie. Usage tells the truth.

We dug into the playing time, routes, carries, and targets behind the fantasy points to identify the biggest buy-low opportunities, sell-high candidates, and rankings movers heading into Week 3.

Here are the 10 biggest fantasy takeaways from Week 2 usage.

1. Parker Washington is an Alpha

Through 2 Games Ranks Among WRs
Target Share third
Air-Yards Share fifth
Targets Per Route fourth
Yards Per Route fourth

It’s been a strange start to the Jaguars’ season. They went up 31-0 on the Browns early in the third quarter of the opener and let off the gas the rest of the way. Then they ran just 55 plays against a tough Broncos defense in Week 2.

Jacksonville ranks 27th in both plays and pass attempts through two weeks, after finishing fourth in plays and 14th in passes last year.

That’s masked an alpha role for Washington, who ranks 72nd among WRs in total routes but top five in target share, air-yards share, targets per route, and yards per route.

Washington posted a 5-83-1 line on just 15 routes in that easy Week 1 win. He jumped to 27 routes and, most critically, an 87% route rate in Week 2, catching 7 of 12 targets for 98 yards.

It’s been a continuation of what we saw from Washington over the second half of last season. Across his last 12 games, he’s averaged:

  • 7.5 targets per game on a 25.4% target share
  • 15.1 expected PPR points per game
  • 15.7 actual PPR points per game

The targets per game, target share, expected points per game, and actual points per game all would have ranked top-13 among WRs last year.

Fantasy impact

If you drafted Washington, you have at least a high-end WR2 and potentially a WR1. If you didn’t, consider “buying high” on Washington this week. His production so far has been capped only by Jacksonville’s low play and pass volume.

2. Does Luther Burden Have A Kalif Raymond Problem?

Through 2 Games Luther Burden Kalif Raymond
Route Rate 71.8% 65.9%
Target Share 21.3% 25.6%

Raymond leading the Bears in targets through two games was not on my bingo card. He’s particularly been a nuisance to Burden.

Burden’s 21.3% target share is respectable, if a bit underwhelming. The bigger concern is his 71.8% route rate, which ranks just 66th among WRs, behind guys like Demario Douglas, Malachi Fields, and Kendrick Bourne.

Burden has posted nearly identical 72.5% and 71.1% route rates in Chicago's games so far. Raymond was at 57.5% in the opener before out-routing Burden at 73.3% in Week 2.

Raymond played more snaps than Burden in "12" personnel vs. the Vikings, according to Pro Football Focus. And Burden played just 1 of 17 snaps in "13" personnel.

It’s similar to what we saw even over the back half of last season, when Burden was still losing playing time to WR Olamide Zaccheaus. Burden registered a 62% route rate over his final 6 games last year. So his playing time has gotten a little bump, but not to where it needs to be for him to deliver on his ADP.

Burden has bigger immediate problems with QB Caleb Williams out with a hamstring injury and backup QB Tyson Bagent also potentially out for a tough Week 3 game against the Eagles.

But even beyond that, it’ll be tough for Burden to ascend beyond WR3 status if he doesn’t get a full-time role.

Fantasy impact

Now probably isn’t the time to trade away Burden. But if he pops for a big game without a bump in playing time, he could become a sell candidate. He still boasts exciting fantasy upside if he can get up to an 80+% route rate, though, so watch his usage closely in the coming weeks.

3. Rhamondre Stevenson’s Fumble Opens The Door For TreVeyon Henderson

Week 2 TreVeyon Henderson Rhamondre Stevenson
Snap Rate 60% 36.4%
Route Rate 41.4% 34.5%
Carry Share 61.5% 23.1%
Target Share0%9.5%

Stevenson looked set to control backfield work in Week 2, but that plan changed when he lost a fumble on the team’s fourth offensive snap.

Stevenson played each of those first four snaps, but Henderson played 21 of the next 25, according to Pro Football Focus. Stevenson worked back in for nine of the next 21 snaps before RB Corey Kiner took some garbage-time reps to close out the win.

Henderson capitalized on the opportunity, taking 16 carries for 76 yards and a TD. The majority of that damage came on a 39-yard TD run, but that’s Henderson’s game.

Stevenson averaged 7.2 yards across his 6 carries, but the lack of ball security is a concern. He fumbled seven times in 2024 and three times last year.

It’s worth noting, though, that Stevenson returned to lead-back duties after fumbling twice in Week 3 and once in Week 5 last year.

He out-snapped Henderson 58% to 29% in Week 4 and 71% to 29% in Week 6.

Fantasy impact

Don’t be surprised if Stevenson gets the start and operates as New England’s lead back in Week 3. But the door is open for Henderson to claim a bigger share of this backfield. Another fumble from Stevenson could bust it wide open.

4. New Competition, Same Result for Travis Etienne

Week 2 Travis Etienne Alvin KamaraC.J. Donaldson
Snap Rate 54.4% 29.4%29.4%
Route Rate 31.0% 23.8%11.9%
Carry Share 30.8% 34.6%3.8%
Target Share6.3%18.8%0%

The Saints got Kamara back from his knee injury in Week 2 and made RB Kendre Miller a healthy scratch. That shuffling had very little impact on Etienne’s role.

He remained a part-time player on early downs, playing 51% of those snaps, and ceded 10 of 11 third-down snaps to Donaldson.

Etienne’s snap rate, route rate, and carry share were down slightly from Week 1. His target share plummeted from 17.3% to 6.3%. And he fell from 13th among RBs in expected PPR points in the opener to 41st in Week 2.

Kamara, not surprisingly, was completely ineffective, turning 14 touches into 22 yards. Donaldson has siphoned 23% of snaps through two weeks but totaled just 4 touches.

Still, HC Kellen Moore sounds committed to a committee backfield.

“I think it’s important to rotate these guys,” Moore said after Week 1. “We gotta rotate all these RBs, and there will be different packages or responsibilities from week to week, that are different. I think it’s important.”

There’s one potential lifeline for Etienne: The Saints have trailed on 78% of their offensive snaps through two games, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That’s damaging game script for Etienne’s current role.

I expect New Orleans to be middle of the pack in snaps trailing going forward, which should lead to more work for Etienne.

Fantasy impact

We can no longer lean on the fact that the Saints gave Etienne a big contract this offseason. They’ve now shown us twice that he’s just part of a committee backfield. Consider him just an RB3 going forward.

5. Aaron Jones is a Workhorse (For Now)

Week 2 Aaron Jones DeeJay DallasDemond Claiborne
Snap Rate 80.8% 15.4%3.8%
Route Rate 44.0% 12.0%8.0%
Carry Share 82.1% 7.1%0%
Target Share0%5.3%5.3%

RB Jordan Mason’s absence left Jones in a high-volume role in the Week 2 win over the Bears. His 80.8% snap rate tied for fifth among all RBs on the week. His 82.1% carry share also ranked fifth.

Jones didn’t see a target on a low-volume passing day for the Vikings (20 attempts). And the team had no snaps inside Chicago’s 10-yard line.

That left Jones just 28th among RBs in expected PPR points. But his 22.7% share of his team’s total expected points ranked 13th.

Jones looks like a rock-solid RB2 with Mason out for another 3 games … assuming he can hold up. He limped off the field with an apparent lower-body injury in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game but returned on Minnesota’s next possession.

Fantasy impact

A healthy Jones will be a useful piece over the next three games, especially in Week 4 against Miami. I have concerns about his body holding up under this heavy workload, though, and Mason is expected back in Week 6. That makes Jones a sell-high candidate for fantasy teams with strong RB depth.

6. David Montgomery Bombs in Trailing Script 

Week 2 David Montgomery Woody Marks
Snap Rate 52.5% 47.5%
Route Rate 43.9% 39.4%
Carry Share 33.3% 44.4%
Target Share4.0%12.0%

We highlighted Houston’s backfield in this space last week, calling Montgomery a sell after a 28.9-point outing in a committee backfield.

Montgomery’s usage got worse in Week 2, and the fantasy production followed.

In trailing game script vs. the Bengals, Montgomery barely out-snapped Marks but finished with fewer carries and targets.

Houston had no inside-the-10 snaps in this game, but Marks notably got 3 of the 4 short-yardage snaps. That suggests that Montgomery might not have the monopoly on the goal-line carries that we thought he did coming out of Week 1.

Fantasy impact

I called Montgomery a “fine RB2” in last week’s usage article, and that might have been overselling him. He now looks like a game-script-dependent fantasy play who will project well in leading script but carry bust risk in trailing script. The good news for Montgomery: The Texans are currently favored in 11 of their remaining 15 games.

7. Tucker Kraft Unleashed

Week 1 Week 2
Route Rate 47.8% 86.8%
Target Share 15.0% 10.3%

It didn’t show up in the box score in a sloppy, weather-impacted game, but Kraft was back in a full-time role in the win over the Jets. In fact, his 86.8% route rate was a higher mark than he posted in any game last year.

That might have been a response to WR Jayden Reed’s early-game injury. But:

  1. The fact that the Packers were willing to play Kraft so much is bullish.
  2. Reed is out indefinitely -- maybe the rest of the season -- with his neck injury.

A Packers passing game that already looked much more condensed than it was in previous seasons is about to get even more condensed. That’s good news for Kraft’s target outlook.

His per-route and per-catch efficiency is down from last year, but that should start to rebound as he puts the November ACL tear further behind him.

Fantasy impact

Kraft ranks just 26th among TEs in PPR points through 2 weeks. But he’s up at TE6 in our rest-of-season rankings, with his usage and health trending up. He’s a prime buy-low candidate ahead of Thursday night’s game vs. the Falcons.

8. Is Bucky Irving a Bell Cow?

Through 2 Games Bucky Irving Kenneth Gainwell
Snap Rate 70.0% 40.5%
Route Rate 55.4% 31.3%
Carry Share 55.1% 17.2%
Target Share19.0%7.9%

Irving is one of only seven RBs with a 70+% snap rate and 50+% route rate through two weeks. The other six:

  • Jonathan Taylor
  • De'Von Achane
  • Ashton Jeanty
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • James Cook
  • Chase Brown

Those guys are widely considered fantasy RB1s. Irving is heading in that direction. He ranks 16th among RBs in carry share and sixth in target share.

The last piece for a true bell-cow role is goal-line work. Irving received Tampa Bay's only RB carry inside the 10-yard line so far, but Gainwell has out-snapped him 3-1 inside the 10.

Still, Irving ranks 15th among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 12th in actual points per game.

Fantasy impact

Irving is at least a strong RB2 right now and could push for RB1 production if he can wrestle some goal-line work from Gainwell. Hold him if you got him. If not, consider "buying high" if you can land him for anything less than a top-15 RB price tag.

9. Jeremiyah Love's Path To More Work

Through 2 Games Jeremiyah Love Tyler Allgeier
Snap Rate 41.3% 61.3%
Route Rate 31.6% 44.7%
Carry Share 44.2% 42.1%
Target Share11.2%6.5%

Love's role and production have been disappointing so far. He ranks 25th among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 27th in actual points per game.

The Cardinals seem committed to a work split between Love and Allgeier. I'm not expecting the rookie to become a workhorse anytime soon.

But there's a clear path to a more valuable fantasy role: More work in the passing game.

Allgeier has out-routed Love 32-23 through two games. Per Fantasy Life, Allgeier played 85% of Arizona's long-down-and-distance snaps and 100% of the 2-minute snaps.

This seems like a case of veteran deference. But Allgeier has never been a receiving threat, totaling just 61 catches over his first four seasons. He's averaging an ugly 0.56 yards per route this season, 43rd among 57 qualifying RBs.

Love was a dangerous receiver at Notre Dame, ripping off 9.4 yards per catch. He's averaged a solid 1.09 yards per route through his first two NFL games.

Fantasy impact

Love is a fringe RB2 in his current role. But a boost in passing-game usage could vault him into the top 20, and perhaps higher. He's a reasonable trade target this week.

10. Josh Downs’ Role Is Even Better Than You Think

Through 2 Games Ranks Among WRs
Route Rate14th
Targets Per Route26th
Target Share 27th

I almost highlighted Downs as a trade target in this space last week. I wish I had, because he’ll be tougher to acquire after Alec Pierce’s re-injury.

But Downs might still be undervalued in your fantasy league if folks aren’t paying attention. The production has been nice (WR37 in PPR points per game), but the usage has been even more encouraging.

The Colts have followed through on their offseason promise to play Downs in 2-WR sets. He’s run 11 routes on a 92% route rate in 2-WR sets through two games. Downs averaged 11 routes per season from 2-WR sets over his first three years.

The result: A 91.4% route rate. That’s 17 percentage points above his previous career high and ranks 14th among all WRs this year.

Downs has continued to earn targets at a high rate, too, ranking 26th among 77 qualifying WRs in targets per route (0.23).

Fantasy impact

Downs’ playing time and target-earning ability profile as a fantasy WR2. His low average target depth and low career TD rate limit the ceiling, but he looks like a weekly WR3 in PPR leagues.