Fantasy Football Dynasty

Print

What is Wrong with Jaylen Waddle?

The Downfall of Jaylen Waddle

Waddle has been one of the biggest busts of 2024. Managers in every format are searching for answers while Waddle’s stock falls.

The easy explanation: Tua Tagovailoa left Week 2 with a concussion and then missed the next four games. But we now have a four-game sample with QB, and the output remains horrendous.

After finishing as WR16 in Week 1, Waddle hasn’t had a top-36 finish since.

Is there an issue with Waddle’s talent? Or is it the scheme and talent around him?

I watched every snap from 2024 (which led me to watch every snap from 2023) and have some potential answers ...

The Scheme

HC Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and the Dolphins run a similar scheme.

Tyreek Hill plays the Deebo Samuel role, going in motion often to create mismatches. He takes snaps outside and from the slot in hopes of scheming easy completions.

Jaylen Waddle plays the Brandon Aiyuk role as a more traditional "X" receiver, with the occasional slot snap. His role is to keep safeties back and shift zones to his side. 

As we’ve seen with Aiyuk, that role can be productive. But it requires excellent route running, zone recognition, and often boxing out against the sideline.

Aiyuk is tremendous in this role, but Waddle appears miscast within the scheme.

Add in TE Jonnu Smith being used creatively around the formation, and now multiple weapons have a much easier time getting open than Waddle.

2023 vs. 2024

Despite a massive dip in fantasy points, Waddle’s usage looks similar from 2023 to 2024.

Let’s look at the numbers:

Outside of the production, there are two key differences this season:

• Lack of TDs
• Tua refuses to throw to Waddle in tight coverage 

Let’s look at the film ...

Film Review

Watching Waddle’s TD receptions from 2023 vs. 2024 was enlightening. He only had 4 receiving TDs in 2023, but they broke down as follows:

• 2-yard play
• 4-yard play
• broken coverage
• defender fell down

His only TD in 2024 required Waddle to freelance back to Tua for the score. 

Waddle wasn’t even a read on this TD pass, but his awareness gave him the score. He hasn’t been the first read on any Tua red-zone pass this season.

That explains why TDs are hard to come by.

Part of the downside of the system is that Waddle needs to get really lucky to score. 

That simply is not happening in 2024.

Wide Open vs. Tight Coverage

Out of 26 targets from Tua, Waddle only has one target in tight coverage (3.84%).

Compare that to last season, when 12.5% of his targets came in tight coverage.

When Waddle isn’t wide open, the targets go to someone else.

Against this Cover-3 defense, the MLB bites on the run, leaving Waddle wide open in the middle of the zone. This is how open Waddle needs to be to guarantee targets. 

When the defense stays disciplined, and the coverage is tight, targets get more rare. 

This is the only tight-coverage target Waddle has with Tua at QB.

Waddle fights through contact with a sharp cut on the In route. 

He runs these often, but Tua usually moves to the next read.

Not only are Tua's decisions hurting Waddle, but the WR has also been creating some of his own problems.  

Mental errors

Physically, Waddle looks like he did in 2023. Gaining separation against man coverage remains easy, though targets have been more rare when that happens.

Against zone coverage, however, Waddle has mental errors that did not happen last season.

On this curl route against zone, Waddle should have turned over his left shoulder and cheated toward the sideline to crack the Cover-2.

Without that, Tua throws it into the LB's path, even trying to throw Waddle open toward the sideline.

Finding the hole in the zone came naturally to Waddle in 2023, but it is a major deficit of his game this season.

Can it be Fixed?

Most of Waddle’s issues will not be fixed.

The scheme itself does not prioritize getting Waddle targets. He has a much harder path to being open than Hill does, and any type of drop in his gameplay will result in poor production (as we have seen this year).

Tua has stopped making tight window passes and won't look Waddle's way unless he is very open.

The mental errors could be corrected, but it is unlikely he will get 2023's volume or score double-digit TDs.

With Waddle (and Tua) locked in with the Dolphins through 2028, the outlook looks bleak for Waddle's chances at becoming a WR1. 

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

For dynasty managers, Waddle’s value has been tumbling all season.

I still can't advise buying him, though, because of the concerns I stated above.

On our PPR Dynasty Trade Value Chart, Waddle has a value of 42 points. That is about equal to a late 2025 first-round pick. I'd rather have that pick.

Contending teams may hesitate to trade a pick for Waddle. If you can’t get a first or equivalent player, hold and hope for at least a WR2 game to spike Waddle’s value again.

If an opposing defense focuses too much on the run or Tyreek Hill, Waddle has some hope for a spike game here and there. 

I'd try to take advantage of that and move him. 

The only real hope for Waddle is that the team moves on from Tyreek Hill (possible due to his contract situation).

If they do, and Waddle assumes Hill's role in the offense, there is hope that his fantasy numbers could finally meet expectations. 

But I wouldn't hold my breath and be stuck holding the bag on Waddle.

Continue Building with These Dynasty Tools

We have highlighted just a few of the tools available to help you maintain your perennial contender. Learn more on how to dominate your dynasty leagues and improve your value with the video below:

Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.