Don't Trust The Box Score: Sean Tucker’s Breakout Is Fake

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tucker rewarded fantasy managers who started him last week, rushing for 19-106-2 with 2-34-1 through the air. That put him at RB2 in PPR points for the week. He still played fewer snaps (22) than Rachaad White (50) but outperformed White in the box score.

The film makes it clear why White continues to play ahead of Tucker, though: Tucker isn’t a very good RB.

The blocking was excellent Sunday, and the Bills run defense was awful. When he did face contact, Tucker went down immediately and almost always fell backward. Outside of his TD catch, no other play stood out. That doesn’t help his case for more work when Bucky Irving returns.

On Tucker’s long TD, he isn’t touched by the Bills defense. The O-line seals the edge, and Tucker follows LT Tristan Wirfs into the open field.

Tucker accelerates into his third gear to run past the defenders. The play results in a TD, but he doesn’t have to face contact or make a defender miss. When the scripted play works, Tucker gains what is there.

This is the same outside zone play as the TD, with another successful seal block. The defense closes in quicker and makes contact. Instead of working through it, Tucker gives up the play and goes out of bounds.

This shows up throughout the game.

Between-the-tackles runs were less successful for Tucker because he had to work through contact. On this play, he gets hit from the side and pushed backward for no gain.

This occurred consistently on Tucker’s interior runs and even some outside runs when the blocking didn’t create a clean path.

On this play, Tucker runs through an arm tackle but gets knocked off balance. That causes him to stumble and fall down soon after. Even when he gets around a defender, his contact balance isn’t good enough to create more yardage.

Why Tucker’s Flash Doesn’t Change His Long-Term Outlook

We saw a similar game from Tucker last year against the Saints in Week 6. He went 14-136-1 on the ground and 3-56-1 through the air, finishing as the RB1 in PPR. His highest weekly PPR finish after that was RB28.

Tucker’s acceleration and athleticism allow him to take advantage of clean blocking and, at times, run away from the defense. His lack of power and contact balance, however, aren’t sustainable traits for a starting NFL RB.

When Irving returns, Tucker likely returns to the back end of the committee with only a handful of touches each game. That won’t produce meaningful fantasy value.

Don’t be fooled by the box score. Tucker isn’t a special runner.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Waddle went 3-52-0 on seven targets against the Commanders, finishing as WR40 in PPR. That was his worst finish since Week 7.

Waddle often outperforms the box score on film, but the flat Dolphins offense continues to hold him back. I highlighted his film last season when he consistently disappointed fantasy managers. Production has been stronger this year, though his floor remains low.

Even with those lows, Waddle is playing the best football of his career.

On this play, Waddle works out of the stack against soft zone coverage. He sells a post but cuts into an in-breaker with smooth movement. He freezes the CB and stays wide open, giving Tua Tagovailoa an easy throw.

Waddle runs great routes and is tough to bring down. On this play, he catches the ball as defenders close for the tackle. He subtly turns his body away from contact to stay balanced and turn upfield.

He adds 15 more yards after the catch and carries a defender for the final 5. For a 185-pound WR, Waddle shows surprising power through contact.

One downside of being a talented WR is that coverage rolls your way. On this play, Waddle runs a deep post, and all three deep defenders in the Cover-3 stay with him. With no other deep route, the defense can focus on Waddle.

Tua still throws to him despite the triple coverage. Waddle never had a chance at a big gain. As much as he has benefited from Tyreek Hill’s injury, the lack of another threatening WR leads to these coverage looks.

Waddle Looks Like a Superstar Even When the Stats Disagree

The film shows the gap between Waddle’s talent and his fantasy output. Even when he fails to post a top-24 week, he looks like a superstar on the field.

Waddle did drop a few passes late in the game, which lowered his reception total. Drops mean little long term; a WR’s ability to get open matters far more.

Waddle should be in your lineup every week. His talent creates weekly blowup potential. Watching him each week only reinforces the idea that he would thrive in a better situation and scheme.

Emanuel Wilson, RB, Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs injured his knee last week against the Giants, and Wilson filled in as the lead back. Though Wilson isn’t as talented as Jacobs, he showed some promise on film as a RB who can score fantasy points with a solid workload.

On this play, Wilson gets strong interior blocking, but he also uses his wiggle to squeeze through the open hole. His sharp cut and vision get him into the end zone.

Wilson shows solid explosion off the snap, even if it isn’t on Jacobs’ level.

Wilson displays above-average receiving ability in this game. On this play, he breaks smoothly, catches the ball in stride, and turns upfield.

After the catch, Wilson falls forward through contact from two defenders to pick up extra yardage. His power and leverage show good technique for the position.

On this play, the script breaks down. Wilson cuts sharply upfield, slips through a small crease, and adds a few extra yards. He keeps his legs moving through contact. Wilson understands the small nuances of the position.

Wilson’s Technique and Power Make Him a Start While Jacobs Is Out

Wilson isn’t a superstar, but he plays with good technique and smooth movement to work through open lanes. It’s clear why he has stuck on the Packers’ active roster for three seasons.

Wilson should be effective in Jacobs’ absence. He will take what the O-line gives him while adding yardage with leverage and power. Trust Wilson in your fantasy lineup while he starts.

Next Up

Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 11 Usage

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.