Who's This Year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Finding 2026’s League Winners.

Did you know that just drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year gave you a 25% chance of winning your fantasy league?

According to ESPN fantasy league data, 25% of teams with JSN won their championships.

Smith-Njigba was a third- or fourth-round pick and wound up finishing second among WRs in PPR points.

That’s the power of high-upside fantasy football players.

Upside is (Almost) All That Matters

Landing safe contributors and draft-day values is nice. But you win your league by pinpointing the handful of players who smash expectations with season-tilting fantasy totals.

Think Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, and Trey McBride last year.

Targeting players with that kind of upside, especially in the middle and late rounds, is a critical part of the best way to draft.

Who are the High-Upside Fantasy Football Players to Target in 2026?

Let’s look at our ceiling projections.

The high-upside fantasy football players listed below aren’t necessarily those with the highest raw ceiling projections. They’re the ones whose ceilings most outpace their ADPs. Because real league winners are found where massive upside meets limited cost.

High-Upside Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

Ceiling projection: 419 points

QB upside typically comes from two places:

1. High-efficiency passing
2. Rushing production

Murray has a chance to check both boxes this season.

The Best Situation of His Career?

Murray hasn’t been a particularly efficient passer. His career 67.1% completion rate is strong, but his 7.0 yards per attempt and 4.1% TD rate are a bit below league average.

That efficiency should get a big boost in Minnesota, though.

HC Kevin O’Connell’s passing games were some of the most efficient in the league prior to last year’s J.J. McCarthy disaster. Here’s where the Vikings finished in yards per pass attempt and TD rate in O’Connell’s first three seasons:

And here’s where Minnesota finished in QB passing points in those three seasons (omitting rushing production):

• 2022: third
• 2023: fifth
• 2024: fifth

Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold were at the helm for most of those three seasons. But O’Connell also coaxed big games out of Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs.

Murray also finds a strong group of weapons. Justin Jefferson remains one of the best WRs in the game, Jordan Addison is an explosive No. 2, and Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson are decent tertiary options.

Rushing Production Boosts Ceiling Even Higher

It’s the rushing ability that supercharges Murray’s upside, though. He’s averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in each of his seven NFL seasons. His career 36.7 rushing yards per game rank seventh among active QBs.

Not coincidentally, Murray also ranks seventh among active QBs in career fantasy points per game. He has a pair of top-5 finishes on his resume and could push for another with the Vikings this year.

That upside makes Murray a priority target at his QB19 ADP.

Other High-Upside QBs:

• Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (Ceiling projection: 432 points)
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (Ceiling projection: 430 points)
• Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (Ceiling projection: 408 points)

High-Upside Running Backs

TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots

Ceiling projection: 311 PPR points

There’s enough to worry about from Henderson’s rookie season and with his 2026 situation to keep him from climbing too high up our RB rankings. He barely got the rock in the playoffs last year, totaling just 35 touches across four games. And backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson beat him in most rushing and receiving metrics.

But there’s still plenty in Henderson’s profile to stay excited about the upside. His 311-point ceiling projection ranks 16th among RBs.

The Talent is Obvious

Stevenson out-played him, but Henderson was far from bad as a rookie.

Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:

• fourth in yards per carry
• 10th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• ninth in yards after contact per attempt

Henderson’s biggest issue came in pass protection, where he ranked 34th among 40 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades. But that was considered a strong suit in his game coming into the league, making it easier to envision a step forward in Year 2.

He Already Flashed Week-Winning Upside

Henderson has already shown he can explode with the opportunity. In the three games Stevenson missed last year, Henderson averaged:

• 88.0 rushing yards per game
• 3.3 catches per game
• 22.0 receiving yards per game
• 1.7 total TDs per game

Henderson ranked fourth among RBs in PPR points per game over that stretch, turning in weekly finishes of RB16, RB4, and RB3.

Stevenson Is Not Insurmountable

Props to Stevenson for a strong 2025, but he’s not some well-established stud who will definitely prevent Henderson from earning a bigger role. 

Stevenson entered last season with a career 4.3 yards per carry, including marks of 4.0 and 3.9 in his previous two seasons. He was even less efficient as a receiver, averaging 6.2 yards per catch and 4.8 yards per target prior to last year. Those marks ranked 78th and 75th, respectively, among 90 qualifying RBs.

I won’t call 2025 an outlier for Stevenson, who was certainly helped by a much-improved New England offense. But I’m not betting on it being the start of an upward trend for a now-28-year-old RB.

A Rising Talent In A Rising Offense

Henderson, meanwhile, should still be on the ascent at 23 years old. Remember, too, that the Patriots spent the 38th pick of the 2025 draft on him, following a highly efficient college career. Henderson averaged 6.4 yards per carry and 11.1 yards per catch across his four seasons at Ohio State.

These RBs could be heading in opposite directions on their career arcs. If that’s the case, and Henderson can claim 60-70% of the backfield work, he could emerge as a fantasy RB1 in this high-scoring Patriots offense.

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

Ceiling projection: 297 PPR points

The risk with Brooks is obvious: He’s torn his right ACL twice since and has played just 23 snaps across two NFL seasons.

But the upside is just as clear.

Brooks Presents Three-Down Skill Set

Brooks sat behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in his first two years at Texas. 

Their departures cleared the way for Brooks’ 2023 breakout. Across 10 games, he averaged:

• 114 rushing yards
• 2.5 catches
• 29 receiving yards
• 1.1 total TDs per game

Brooks ripped off 6.1 yards per carry, ranking top-12 among 157 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, missed tackles forced per attempt, and elusive rating.

The 6’0, 216-pounder has the size and skill set to contribute in all situations, including at the goal line and in the passing game. That ability is a precursor to big fantasy upside.

The Competition is Susceptible

Chuba Hubbard sits atop Carolina’s depth chart for now, but his grip on the job looks shaky.

Hubbard simply wasn’t very good last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 41st in yards per carry
• 45th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 49th in yards after contact per attempt
• 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 41st in PFF rushing grade

This Panthers staff has already shown it’ll move away from Hubbard if he’s not the best option. A red-hot Rico Dowdle remained Carolina’s lead back last year even after Hubbard returned from his calf injury, out-carrying Hubbard 130 to 55 over the final nine games.

There’s More Upside to the Situation Than You Think

Will Carolina’s offense be good this year? Probably not. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a profitable spot for RB fantasy production.

Last year’s Panthers finished 27th in both points and total yards. But they ranked 20th in total RB PPR points, deploying one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.

Expect a similar attack this year, unless you believe QB Bryce Young is set to take a big step forward. (I don’t.)

HC Dave Canales has produced valuable fantasy RBs at all of his NFL stops. Rachaad White broke out for a RB10 finish in PPR points per game under Canales in Tampa Bay in 2023. Hubbard finished RB13 in Canales’ 2024 Panthers debut. And last year, Hubbard ranked 17th through Week 4 and Dowdle ranked 12th the rest of the way.

Rachaad White, Washington Commanders

Ceiling projection: 272 PPR points

Receiving production is the easiest path to upside for RBs.

Over the past three seasons, a RB target has been worth, on average, 2.5 times more PPR points than a RB carry.

Over that same span, top-24 PPR RBs have averaged 45.4 catches per season. 88% of those top-24 RBs caught at least 30 passes; 53% of them caught at least 40.

White’s path to upside starts with a relatively locked-in pass-catching role in Washington.

The Passing-Game Role Is His

White has caught 205 passes for 1,450 yards and 11 TDs through four NFL seasons. All three of those marks rank top-6 among RBs over that span.

The efficiency hasn’t been quite as impressive, but White has topped 1.1 yards per route in three of four seasons. For perspective, 1.1 yards per route would have ranked 20th among 40 qualifying RBs last year.

White would be the favorite for pass-catching duties in many NFL backfields. He’s a heavy favorite in Washington, where Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Kaytron Allen are his primary competitors for snaps. Neither has much of a pass-catching resume.

Croskey-Merritt totaled 34 catches across six college seasons, topping out at 12 at Alabama State in 2022. He caught just nine of 13 targets as a rookie last year.

Allen totaled 70 receptions across four years at Penn State. But backfield mate Nicholas Singleton had 102 over that same span. Allen averaged just 7.0 yards per catch for his college career.

White is a strong bet to dominate pass-catching work in the Commanders’ backfield this season.

Taking the Carry Lead Could Make Him a Star

Most Commanders insiders, as well as Draft Sharks, project Croskey-Merritt to lead the team in carries this season. But the situation remains fluid heading into training camp.

Croskey-Merritt posted strong advanced rushing metrics in college, but he still averaged just 4.8 yards per carry before falling to the seventh round of the draft.

As a rookie last year, he popped off 4.6 yards per carry. But he reached double-digit carries in just nine of 17 games and topped 14 carries just twice, despite playing in a weak backfield.

Allen is a reliable runner who out-produced Singleton over the last three years, but there’s not much dynamism to his game, a point reinforced by his sixth-round draft capital.

White hasn’t been impressive as a runner. He owns a 3.9 career yards-per-carry average, even with 4.3 marks in each of the last two seasons. He ranks 60th in yards after contact per attempt and 52nd in missed tackles forced per attempt among 69 RBs with 200+ carries over the last four seasons.

Despite all that, though, White has garnered 129+ carries in all four of those seasons. That includes a 272-attempt 2023.

So he’s clearly doing something to earn work. And the experience edge he has over Croskey-Merritt and Allen could be a factor.

White Has Already Shown The Ceiling

That 2023 season, by the way, saw White finish RB10 in PPR points per game.

That level of upside is probably out of reach in 2026. But White is certainly capable of handily beating his RB37 ADP. There simply aren’t many RBs going in that range with a legitimate chance to lead their backfields in carries and targets.

Other High-Upside RBs:

• Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (Ceiling Projection: 304 PPR points)
• Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars (Ceiling Projection: 298 PPR points)
• Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks (Ceiling Projection: 297 PPR points)

High-Upside Wide Receivers

Luther Burden, Chicago Bears

Ceiling projection: 297 PPR points

Burden never broke out as a rookie because he never earned a full-time role.

But when he was on the field, he looked like one of the NFL’s most dangerous young WRs. If his playing time jumps in Year 2, Burden has legitimate WR1 upside.

Elite Efficiency Is Already Here

Burden made the most of his limited opportunities as a rookie.

Among 76 WRs with 50+ targets last year, he ranked:

• 11th in targets per route
• third in yards per route
• eighth in PPR points per route

His 2.69 yards per route run trailed only two WRs league-wide. It was also the best mark by a rookie WR with 50+ targets since Odell Beckham Jr..

Those are the types of efficiency numbers that often precede fantasy stardom.

A Bigger Role Is Coming

Talent wasn’t the problem last year. Burden simply wasn't on the field enough. He ran a route on just 41.0% of Chicago's pass plays.

That should change this year.

D.J. Moore leaves behind 558 routes (first among Bears WRs) and 85 targets (second). Chicago did little to replace him, leaving Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland as the clear favorites to lead the passing game.

If Burden maintained last year's 0.56 PPR points per route across Moore's 558 routes, he'd score 310.5 PPR points.

That would have ranked fifth among WRs last season.

We’re certainly not projecting that outcome. But it illustrates just how massive Burden's ceiling becomes if his playing time catches up to last year’s efficiency.

The Offense Could Take Off, Too

Burden also finds himself in a favorable environment.

Caleb Williams enters his third NFL season, when many young QBs make their biggest leap. And Ben Johnson heads into his second season running Chicago's offense after a full offseason to build around his personnel.

Burden should be a big part of those plans.

Still just 22 years old and entering his second season after being selected 38th overall, Burden has the ingredients to emerge as one of fantasy football's biggest breakouts.

Jaylen Waddle, Denver Broncos

Ceiling projection: 295 PPR points

Waddle has been a useful fantasy asset. He’s scored as a top-30 PPR WR in four of his five NFL seasons, including a trio of top-22 finishes.

But the underlying metrics and a big upgrade in situation make Waddle a candidate for a career-best season in 2026.

A Healthy Waddle Is Already a Fantasy WR1

Injuries have been a recurring issue for Waddle. But when he's been healthy enough to handle a full workload, he's produced like one of the league's best WRs.

Across his 60 career games with a 70%+ route rate, he's averaged 14.8 PPR points per game, a mark that would have ranked 12th among WRs last season and finished inside the top 21 in each of the past five years.

The underlying metrics are just as promising.

According to CBS Sports' Jacob Gibbs, Waddle was one of just eight WRs last season to post both 2.0+ yards per route and a 15%+ route win rate (per Fantasy Points). 

More impressive: Waddle has reached those marks in three of the last four seasons.

The Situation Just Got Much Better

Waddle is escaping one of the league's least productive passing games.

Last year's Dolphins ranked:

• 30th in pass attempts
• 25th in passing yards
• 21st in passing TDs

Denver, meanwhile, finished:

• fourth in pass attempts
• 11th in passing yards
• 16th in passing TDs

The Broncos didn't surrender first-, third-, and fourth-round picks for Waddle to make him a complementary piece.

Expect him to become the top receiver. And that’s a prime spot for fantasy upside.

Sean Payton Knows How to Feed His No. 1 WR

Denver's passing game has spread the ball around over the last three seasons.

But Sean Payton has a long history of producing high-end fantasy WRs when he has the right guy.

From Marques Colston to Brandin Cooks to Michael Thomas, Payton churned out 11 top-20 PPR WR finishes and seven top-12 finishes across 15 seasons as Saints HC.

Waddle has the talent to become the next name on that list.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Ceiling projection: 290 PPR points

Watson has teased fantasy managers for four seasons.

Injuries and Green Bay's crowded WR room have prevented him from putting together a true breakout campaign. But the ingredients are there for that to change in 2026.

Full-Time Watson Is a Fantasy WR1

Watson has reached a 70% route rate in just 19 career games. But he's averaged 15.1 PPR points per game in those contests. That would have ranked 11th among WRs last season and been inside the top 19 in each of the previous four years.

Even last season, Watson finished WR17 in PPR points per game despite returning from a January 2025 ACL tear and ranking just 61st among WRs with a 68% route rate.

Few WRs Can Match His Big-Play Ability

Watson has always been one of the league's most explosive receivers.

Among 88 WRs with 100+ catches over the past four seasons, he ranks:

• second in yards per catch (17.0)
• first in TD rate (15.0%)

He's not just a deep threat, either.

Watson has averaged 0.77 end-zone targets per game over the past three seasons. Only nine WRs topped that mark last year.

Few receivers possess his combination of big-play ability and scoring upside.

Opportunity Finally Opening Up

The Packers' passing game should be much less crowded this season.

Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks leave behind a significant share of the passing game. They ranked first and fourth, respectively, in routes last year. And they finished first and third in targets for a combined 26.8% share.

They also accounted for:

• 21 red-zone targets (31.8% share)
• 11 end-zone targets (45.8% share)

Those are especially valuable opportunities for a receiver with Watson's knack for finding the end zone.

If he can stay healthy and earn the consistent playing time that's eluded him so far, Watson has the tools to post the first WR1 fantasy season of his career.

Other High-Upside WRs:

• Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (Ceiling projection: 290 PPR points)
• Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints (Ceiling projection: 279 PPR points)
• Makai Lemon, Philadelphia Eagles (Ceiling projection: 276 PPR points)
• Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Ceiling projection: 274 PPR points)
• Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (Ceiling projection: 272 PPR points)

High-Upside Tight Ends

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

Ceiling projection: 284 PPR points

Rookie TEs rarely become reliable fantasy starters.

Loveland wasn't just reliable by the end of last season. He was one of the most productive TEs in football.

The Breakout Already Started

The Bears unleashed Loveland over their final five games (including the playoffs).

He responded by averaging:

• 10.6 targets (25.1% share)
• 6.2 catches
• 81.6 receiving yards
• 0.4 TDs
• 16.8 PPR points

That scoring average would have ranked second among TEs last season.

Even better, Loveland got more efficient as the workload grew.

That's exactly what you want to see from a future fantasy star.

The Underlying Numbers Were Elite

Loveland wasn't simply riding a hot streak. He was efficient all year.

Among 38 TEs with 40+ targets last season, he ranked:

• sixth in targets per route
• fifth in yards per route
• ninth in PPR points per route

Everything Points to Another Leap

Loveland's rookie success shouldn't have come as a surprise.

He broke out at Michigan as a 19-year-old true sophomore before dominating the Wolverines' passing game in 2024. He accounted for 38.6% of the team's receiving yards and 45.5% of its receiving TDs.

His 49.6% career dominator rating (share of receiving yards and TDs) ranks in the 100th percentile among TE prospects, according to PlayerProfiler.

The Bears clearly believed in that talent, selecting Loveland with the 10th overall pick in the 2025 draft.

Ben Johnson Adds to the Upside

Loveland’s coaching situation only adds to the optimism.

Ben Johnson has consistently generated strong TE fantasy production. Sam LaPorta finished TE3 and TE9 in Johnson's two seasons as Detroit's OC, while T.J. Hockenson ranked TE4 through Week 8 of Johnson's first season before being traded. Last year's Bears finished ninth in total TE PPR points.

Loveland already looks like one of the league's most talented young TEs. If his late-season role carries into 2026, he has a legitimate chance to threaten Brock Bowers and Trey McBride for the position’s scoring lead.

That makes Loveland particularly attractive considering he’s going 2-3 rounds behind Bowers and McBride in fantasy drafts.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Ceiling projection: 217 PPR points

Kincaid didn't disappoint last season because he played poorly. He disappointed because he wasn't on the field enough.

If Buffalo follows through on its plan to expand Kincaid's role, he has top-5 fantasy upside.

No TE Was Better Per Route

Kincaid led all TEs in per-route production last year. Among 53 TEs with 150+ routes, he ranked:

• first in targets per route
• first in yards per route
• first in PPR points per route

His 2.79 yards per route were the best by a TE with 40+ targets since George Kittle's 2.84 in 2020.

He Simply Needs More Routes

Kincaid ran a route on just 44.2% of Buffalo's pass plays last season. That ranked 34th among TEs.

Some of that was by design. Kincaid is a liability as a blocker.

But injuries also played a significant role. Kincaid battled knee, oblique, and hamstring injuries throughout the season, limiting both his availability and playing time.

The Bills have made it clear they want that to change. GM Brandon Beane said in February:

"Our number one thing with Dalton is to see if we can get him healthier this year, so that we don't have to A: miss games, and then B: limit how much he's playing."

More Playing Time Unlocks Elite Upside

Kincaid has already shown he can handle a much larger workload.

He posted a 68.3% route rate as a rookie in 2023 and 57.7% in 2024.

If he maintained last year's 0.70 PPR points per route on his 2024 route volume (19.5 routes per game), he'd average 13.7 PPR points per game. That would have ranked TE5 last season.

Getting back to his rookie usage would be even more exciting.

Applying that same efficiency to his 2023 workload (26.4 routes per game) yields 18.5 PPR points per game. That would have ranked TE2, just 0.1 points per game behind Trey McBride.

That's obviously an aggressive projection, but it gives you a taste of the upside Kincaid possesses.

He’s particularly exciting because he’s often available in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.

Other High-Upside TEs:

• George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (Ceiling projection: 274 PPR points)
• Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets (Ceiling projection: 209 PPR points)
• Terrance Ferguson, Los Angeles Rams (Ceiling projection: 199 PPR points)

Never Miss A High-Upside Player Again

Prioritizing upside is a crucial part of optimal draft strategy. That’s exactly why we built Upside Mode into the Draft War Room.

Midway through your draft, the War Room will automatically switch to Upside Mode. That puts a heavier weight on each player’s ceiling projection, bumping those high-upside targets up your rankings.

Create your Draft War Room now!

Watch this quick video to learn more about the Draft War Room.