High Upside Fantasy Football Players 2024

Did you know that just drafting Keenan Allen last year gave you a better than two-in-three chance of making your fantasy playoffs?

Per data on ESPN fantasy leagues, 68% of teams with Allen reached the playoffs.

Allen was a fourth-round pick in fantasy drafts last summer and wound up ranking third among WRs in PPR points per game.

And that’s the power of high-upside fantasy football players.

Upside is (Almost) All That Matters

Landing solid contributors and draft-day values is nice. But fantasy leagues are often won by pinpointing the handful of players who smash expectations with season-tilting fantasy totals.

Think Keenan Allen, Kyren Williams, and Puka Nacua last year.

Targeting players with that kind of upside, particularly in the middle and later rounds of drafts, is a key part of the best way to draft.

Who are the High-Upside Fantasy Football Players to Target in 2024?

To answer that question, let’s look at our ceiling projections.

The high-upside fantasy football players listed below are not necessarily those with the highest ceiling projections. They’re players with the highest ceiling projections in relation to ADP. Because finding high-upside players in the middle and later rounds is how you really dominate your fantasy league.

  

High-Upside Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Ceiling Projection: 403.6 fantasy points

Injuries limited Richardson to just two full games as a rookie last year. But in those two games, he:

• Scored 20.9 fantasy points and finished QB4
• Scored 29.6 fantasy points and finished QB2

The 6’4, 244-pounder boasts Jalen Hurts-level rushing upside and the arm to make every throw.

It’s probably not a coincidence that Richardson is playing under HC Shane Steichen, who was Hurts’ OC in Philadelphia in 2021 and 2022. Hurts finished eighth and then third among QBs in fantasy points those two years.

There are certainly safer picks on the board than Richardson. But he has the upside to lead all QBs in scoring.

 

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Ceiling Projection: 397.6 fantasy points

Rushing production is a key upside driver at QB. Nine of the 20 top-5 QB fantasy seasons over the past four years included at least 421 rushing yards.

Looking further back, 45% of QBs to run for 500+ yards over the last 10 seasons have finished top-5 in fantasy points.

Daniels is a good bet to hit 500 rushing yards this year. He racked up 3,017 rushing yards over his final three college seasons (omitting yardage lost on sacks), including 1,250 last year. He’s as explosive as any QB we’ve seen enter the league since at least Lamar Jackson.

Daniels was also an excellent passer last year, completing 72.2% of his passes at 11.7 yards per attempt. And it can’t hurt that he’s now playing under OC Kliff Kingsbury, who worked with similarly mobile QB Kyler Murray in Arizona.

Murray finished 11th among QBs in fantasy points per game as a rookie under Kingsbury.

 

Other High-Upside QBs

• Deshaun Watson (Ceiling Projection: 367.0 fantasy points)
• Will Levis (Ceiling Projection: 355.9 fantasy points)
• Justin Fields (Ceiling Projection: 373.9 fantasy points)

 

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High-Upside Running Backs

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Ceiling Projection: 333.5 fantasy points

Achane is coming off a historically efficient rookie season. His 1.48 PPR points per touch led all RBs with 100+ touches last year.

In fact, it was the second-best mark over the last five seasons.

Achane averaged a massive 7.8 yards per carry, took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards, and scored on 7.7% of his touches.

Any reasonable baseline projection has his efficiency regressing in a big way this season. But what if he continues to smash reasonable expectations?

And what if he does that while getting more volume this year? HC Mike McDaniel hinted in late July that Achane is in line for more work this season.

Elite efficiency paired with more touches would give Achane a path to lead all RBs in fantasy points. Nice upside for a guy often available in the third round of drafts.

 

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

Ceiling Projection: 297.8 fantasy points

What’s the easiest path to fantasy upside at RB? How about a three-down role in a high-scoring offense.

That’s the spot Pacheco finds himself in this season. With only Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Deneric Prince behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco should dominate Chiefs backfield work this season.

Kansas City, of course, has finished top 6 in points in five of six seasons since QB Patrick Mahomes took over.

We’ve already seen Pacheco crush in a big role. In seven games with a snap rate of 70+% last season (including playoffs), he averaged 20.6 PPR points. Only two RBs averaged more last year.

 

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

Ceiling Projection: 281.0 fantasy points

The relative unknown of rookies tends to create opportunity for upside. Brooks carries an even bigger question mark than most rookies after tearing an ACL last November. He has yet to hit the practice field for the Panthers.

But that has Brooks’ ADP sitting in Round 7. He boasts big upside from that range.

Brooks was uber-productive before last year’s knee injury, averaging 114 rushing yards and 1.0 TDs per game on 6.1 yards per carry. He was also active in the passing game, tallying 2.5 catches and 29 receiving yards per game. The 6’0, 216-pounder has the frame to carry a load.

Brooks landed in a nice spot in Carolina. His “competition” for work: Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, Rashaad Penny, and Raheem Blackshear.

He’ll be playing in an offense led by new HC Dave Canales, who just helped Rachaad White to a breakout season in Tampa Bay. Canales has talked up Brooks’ versatility and three-down skill set since drafting him.

If Brooks can put that knee injury behind him, he could score as a RB1 over the second half of this season.

 

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

Ceiling Projection: 269.9 fantasy points

This one doesn’t take any mental gymnastics. Mostert just finished third among all RBs in fantasy points.

Yes, he’s unlikely to match last year’s 21 total TDs. But what if Mostert continues to run hot as a big-play back in an ideal scheme under HC Mike McDaniel? What if he scores, say, 15 TDs?

That’d make Mostert a big win at his seventh-round ADP.

 

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Ceiling Projection: 225.6 fantasy points

A big-play back on a high-scoring offense is a perfect recipe for fantasy upside.

Brown clocked a 4.43-second 40 time at the Combine and flashed home run ability with gains of 54, 31, and 27 yards among his 58 rookie-year touches.

Brown finds himself in an upside spot heading into 2024. The Bengals have finished seventh in points in QB Joe Burrow’s two healthy seasons. The team’s RBs ranked 14th and then sixth in total PPR points those two years.

Joe Mixon’s departure leaves the backfield up for grabs in 2024. We'll see how touches will be divvied between Brown and free-agent addition Zack Moss. But the vibes on Brown have been positive early in training camp.

If he can capture the lead role in this high-scoring offense, Brown will have the upside to finish as a top-20 fantasy RB.

 

Other High-Upside RBs:

• Javonte Williams (Ceiling Projection: 249.2 fantasy points)
• MarShawn Lloyd (Ceiling Projection: 223.3 fantasy points)
• Kimani Vidal (Ceiling Projection: 205.3 fantasy points)
• Ray Davis (Ceiling Projection: 199.8 fantasy points)
• Audric Estime (Ceiling Projection: 217.2 fantasy points)

 

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High-Upside Wide Receivers

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Ceiling Projection: 319.5 fantasy points

Collins faces stiff target competition this year with the arrival of WR Stefon Diggs and return of WR Tank Dell.

But what if he’s just so good that it doesn’t matter? Collins’ breakout 2023 suggests that might be the case.

He became just the fifth WR over the past 10 seasons to average 3+ yards per route on 50+ targets. The others: 

• Julio Jones
• Cooper Kupp
• Tyreek Hill
• Brandon Aiyuk

Nice company. 

Collins was elite both downfield (99.9 Pro Football Focus receiving grade on deep targets) and after the catch (fifth among WRs in yards after catch over expected per reception).

He could still be ascending at age 25. And he could be catching passes from one of the best QBs in the game.

If Collins is good enough to still command a target share in the mid 20s this year, he could deliver a second straight top-8 finish in PPR points per game.

 

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Ceiling Projection: 319.5 fantasy points

You know the deal with Samuel: If he can just stay healthy …

He ranked 14th among WRs in PPR points per game last year and was a top-3 fantasy WR in 2021. 

His combination of receiving plus rushing upside is unmatched at his position – and gives Samuel a lofty weekly ceiling. His 16 games of 20+ PPR points over the last three seasons are eighth-most among WRs.

Samuel is a safe bet to provide a handful of week-winning performances this season. And if he can string together a healthy season, his upside extends into the top 8.

 

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Ceiling Projection: 319.5 fantasy points

Waddle dealt with numerous injuries last year, missing three games and playing less than 55% of Miami’s offensive snaps in three other contests.

In the remaining 11 games, he averaged:

• 8.0 targets
• 5.6 catches
• 78.1 yards
• 0.36 TDs

Waddle’s 15.6 PPR points per game in those 11 outings would have ranked 17th among WRs. He posted a nearly identical 15.4 points per game in a healthy 2022.

But Waddle’s real upside comes in the event of a Tyreek Hill injury. Hill has missed just one game over the last two seasons. But in that game, Waddle smoked a quality Jets pass defense for eight catches, 142 yards, and a score.

We’re talking about a potential top-5 fantasy WR sans Hill.

 

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Ceiling Projection: 293.8 fantasy points

Like Deebo Samuel, it’s all about staying on the field for Higgins. He’s missed eight games through four NFL seasons and played less than 60% of the offensive snaps in another 10.

In his other 48 games, though, Higgins has averaged:

• 7.9 targets
• 5.1 catches
• 72.5 yards
• 0.5 TDs

That’s 15.3 PPR points per game – or mid- to high-end WR2 production.

The 25-year-old Higgins remains in his prime heading into this season. He’s playing with an upper-echelon QB on an offense that’s consistently been one of the league’s pass-heaviest.

And he’s sitting outside the top 25 WRs in ADP.

 

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

Ceiling Projection: 276.7 fantasy points

We’re still awaiting news on Rice’s potential suspension for his involvement in a street-racing crash back in March. It’s more likely than not that he misses games this season.

But we’re talking upside here. And when Rice is on the field, he brings WR1-level upside.

The Chiefs slow-played him for the first half of his rookie season. But over his final 10 games (including playoffs), Rice averaged:

• 8.9 targets
• 6.9 catches
• 78.0 yards
• 0.4 TDs

His 17.1 PPR points per game over that stretch would have ranked ninth among WRs on the season.

Rice faces added target competition this year with the arrivals of WRs Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. But those undersized speedsters should also help stretch defenses and clear more room for Rice to work in the short and intermediate areas.

 

Other High-Upside WRs:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ceiling Projection: 225.6 fantasy points)
• Christian Watson (Ceiling Projection: 225.6 fantasy points)
• Jameson Williams (Ceiling Projection: 225.6 fantasy points)
• Marvin Mims (Ceiling Projection: 225.6 fantasy points)
• Jalin Hyatt (Ceiling Projection: 225.6 fantasy points)

  

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High-Upside Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Ceiling Projection: 253.8 fantasy points

Pitts was dealt a nearly impossible hand over the past two seasons.

1. He caught passes from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke.
2. He played on Falcons teams that ranked 31st and 25th in pass attempts.
3. He suffered a multi-ligament knee injury in November 2022 that remained a problem last year.

But we’ve seen Pitts’ upside. With serviceable QB play from Matt Ryan in 2021, Pitts went for 1,026 yards – the second-most by a rookie TE in NFL history.

Pitts was an elite prospect coming into the league, is still only 23 (about three months older than Sam LaPorta), and now finds himself in the best situation of his pro career. 

Atlanta should bounce into the upper half of the league in pass attempts under new OC Zac Robinson. And QB Kirk Cousins remained a high-end passer last year, ranking fourth among 33 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

The pieces are in place for Pitts to deliver on the upside we thought he had coming off his rookie season.

 

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Ceiling Projection: 228.0 fantasy points

There are certainly roadblocks in Bowers’ path this season. The QB play in Vegas figures to be subpar, whether it’s Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. And WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers present stiff target competition.

But Bowers might just be talented enough to dodge all of those problems. This is a guy who led Georgia in catches, receiving yards, and TDs in each of his three seasons on campus. Who averaged 9.0 yards after the catch for his career. Who won the Mackey Award twice.

The Raiders took him with the 13th overall pick of this spring’s draft – despite having lots of other holes to fill – and have talked up his pass-catching skills and versatility since.

#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce on Brock Bowers:

“I mean, just different. You’re talking about probably the most dynamic football player in college football at that tight end position in a long time. And it’s rare you get a guy like that, that can line up as a slot receiver, see him… pic.twitter.com/WHMc2xhIf6

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 10, 2024

At a ninth-round ADP, Bowers is an exciting “bet-on-talent” draft pick.

 

Other High-Upside TEs:

• Luke Musgrave (Ceiling Projection: 189.9 fantasy points)
• Noah Fant (Ceiling Projection: 180.5 fantasy points)
• Taysom Hill (Ceiling Projection: 200.0 fantasy points)

 

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Never Miss A High-Upside Player Again

Prioritizing upside is a crucial part of optimal draft strategy. That’s exactly why we built Upside Mode into the Draft War Room.

Midway through your draft, the War Room will automatically switch to Upside Mode. That puts a heavier weight on each player’s ceiling projection, bumping those high-upside targets up your rankings.

Create your Draft War Room now!

 

Watch this quick video to learn more about the Draft War Room.