Dalton Kincaid - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Kincaid earned Round 1 draft capital last year. He soon made an impact as a spot-start TE1, ultimately finishing 13th in PPR points per game.

2024 turns up boosted target opportunity with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis off the roster. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel joined over the offseason, but expect a more evenly distributed passing game.

Ultimately, Kincaid is fairly priced as the TE5.

What We Learned Last Year

• Following a slow start, Kincaid became one of only four rookie TEs in league history to tally 70+ catches.
• He did so in 16 games, missing only Week 6 (concussion).
• Kincaid’s production took off in Week 7, when Dawson Knox battled a wrist injury that ultimately cost him the next five games.
  • Without Knox, Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches, 56.2 yards, and .4 TDs.
  • Kincaid finished as a top-13 fantasy TE in all five games.
  • In 14 games with Knox, Kincaid averaged 4.7 targets, 3.6 catches, 35.4 yards, and .07 TDs.
  • Kincaid finished as a top-13 TE three times in 11 regular season games alongside Knox.
• Another dynamic was at play, as Buffalo swapped out OC Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady ahead of Week 11. Brady orchestrated a much more run-heavy approach.
  • Still, Kincaid’s targets per game essentially stayed the same under both OCs (5.6 to 5.8).
  • Kincaid’s target share under Dorsey: 16.9%
  • Kincaid’s target share under Brady: 18.0%
• Overall, among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Kincaid ranked third in catch rate, 23rd in yards per catch, 16th in yards after catch per reception, and T-12th in yards per route run.

What to Expect in 2024

• Joe Brady takes over as the full-time OC.
  • As noted above, Kincaid’s usage didn’t take a hit after the in-season coordinator change.
• The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency.
  • That removes 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
• Buffalo’s main WR additions include Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman.
  • Samuel, 28, spent the past three years in Washington. After an injury-ruined 2021, he filled a short-range slot role from 2022-2023.
  • His contract includes $15 million guaranteed, suggesting the Bills will feature him.
• Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
  • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Kincaid final target count.
  • Coleman projects as a potential red zone factor at 6’3, 213 pounds. He was a strong TD producer in college
• Kincaid saw just a 14.5% red zone target share last year -- 3rd on the Bills and just ahead of Dawson Knox (12.9%).