Derrick Henry - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

HC John Harbaugh said early on that you should expect Henry the Raven to look a lot like Henry the Titan. This Baltimore offense probably won’t go quite as run-heavy as those Tennessee units. But the contract confirms they think highly of the vet RB, and the backfield presents little competition. Lamar Jackson’s presence should help Henry’s per-touch efficiency, setting up another top-12 season for a trustworthy fantasy RB.

What We Learned Last Year

• Just like we said in this space a year ago, we learned last season that Henry can still do it. The hoss spent his age-29 season leading the league in carries (280) for the second straight year and fourth time in five seasons. (That other year found him averaging a career-high 27.4 carries per game across eight outings.)
• Henry’s yards per carry dipped to 4.2, matching his career low from 2017 (his second season).
• Henry’s carries per game decreased significantly with Tyjae Spears’ arrival, from 21.8 to 16.5. It was Henry’s first time averaging fewer than 20.2 since he became the starter in 2019.
• The advanced stats looked good, though:
  • Henry’s yards after contact per attempt and PFF elusive rating were down vs. 2022 but higher than his 2021 numbers and in line with his career.
  • Henry posted the second-most missed tackles forced per attempt in his career, trailing only 2018.
  • His rush yards over expected per attempt have increased each of the past two years, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
  • Henry ranked a solid 17th among 49 qualifiers in that category, despite facing 8+ defenders in the box at the league’s second-highest rate.

What to Expect in 2024

• Baltimore clearly believes that Henry still has it. The Ravens gave him $16 million on a two-year deal in free agency, with $9 million of that guaranteed. That from a franchise that has succeeded with Lamar Jackson as rushing-yardage leader for five straight seasons.
  • The last five RBs to lead Baltimore in rushing yards:
    • 2018: Gus Edwards
    • 2017: Alex Collins
    • 2016: Terrance West
    • 2015: Justin Forsett
    • 2014: Justin Forsett
  • Bottom line: The Ravens haven’t needed fancy RBs.
• There’s room for Baltimore to support Henry’s value even while passing more than they did under former OC Greg Roman.
• The Ravens climbed to seventh in neutral pass rate last season vs. 12th each of the previous two years and 25th from 2019-2022 (Lamar Jackson starting years). Yet they still also climbed to 15th in RB carries last year vs. 20th and 30th the previous two years.
• The RB depth chart looks iffy to poor behind Henry.
  • J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are gone – both to the Chargers.
  • Keaton Mitchell emerged as a big-play threat over the second half of last season but tore an ACL in mid-December. Even at full health, the 179-pounder looks like a limited-touch player.
  • Justice Hill returns after leading Ravens RBs in receiving in 2023 but falling well behind Gus Edwards in carries. He has averaged just 3.4 rushes per game across four seasons. (Missed 2021 with an injury.)
  • Rasheen Ali is a fifth-round rookie. We’ll see.
• Henry should dominate RB carries in Baltimore and might overtake Hill for receiving work as well. He graded out better than Hill last season in both pass blocking (12th-best among all RBs) and receiving, according to PFF.