Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Forecast: Will QB Play Kill This Team?

    

 

Indianapolis Colts 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

 

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

 

Anthony Richardson

Bottom Line:

Richardson is coming off a historically inefficient passing season and will need to beat out Daniel Jones for the 2025 starting job. He’s a poor bet to start all 17 games this season. But Richardson can still provide QB1 value in spurts thanks to his rushing ability. Consider him a risk/reward QB2 in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Richardson played 10 full games last season. He missed most of Week 4 and all of Weeks 5 and 6 with oblique and abdomen injuries, was benched for Weeks 9 and 10, and then missed the final two games of the season with back and foot injuries.

Richardson’s fantasy scoring average in his 10 full games ranked 15th among QBs. He was a volatile weekly producer, with a pair of top-five finishes but five weeks outside of the top 20.

Usage & Role

Richardson operated a run-heavy Colts offense. He averaged just 26.0 pass attempts across his 10 full games, which ranked outside the top-30 QBs.

Richardson was busy on the ground, though, averaging 8.3 carries per game. Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels were the only QBs with more. Richardson ranked second behind only Hurts with 0.9 carries inside the five-yard line per game.

Richardson finished 15th among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Richardson was one of the worst passers in the NFL last year. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt on a hideous 47.7% completion rate. 

Richardson became just the third QB since 2000 to complete less than 50% of his passes on 250+ attempts. The other two: Akili Smith and Tim Tebow.

Here’s where Richardson ranked in key efficiency metrics last year among 34 qualifying QBs:

• 34th in completion rate
• 24th in yards per attempt
• 32nd in TD rate
• 34th in INT rate
• 34th in completion rate over expected
• 34th in on-target pass percentage
• 32nd in Pro Football Focus passing grade

Richardson at least showed slight improvement in some categories after his mid-season benching. Here are the splits:

Six games pre-benching

• 44.4% completion rate
• 7.2 yards per attempt
• 3.0% TD rate
• 5.3% INT rate
• 49.5 PFF passing grade

Five games post-benching:

• 51.2% completion rate
• 6.5 yards per attempt
• 3.1% TD rate
• 3.8% INT rate
• 70.3 PFF passing grade

Those post-benching numbers are still ugly. The passing grade, for example, would have ranked 23rd among 34 qualifiers on the season.

Richardson was much better running the ball than passing it. He tied for seventh in yards per carry (5.8) among 21 QBs with 40+ attempts and ranked fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.2). 

Offensive Context

The Colts deployed a completely different offense in games with Richardson vs. without. Here are the splits:

10 full Richardson games

• 58.2 plays per game
• 47.1% pass rate

Other 7 games

• 65.6 plays per game
• 59.0% pass rate

The Colts averaged 20.4 points per game with Richardson vs. 24.7 without.

Historical Production & Trends

Richardson played just two full games as a rookie back in 2023. He finished QB4 in both weeks, on the strength of 10-40-1 and 10-56-1 rushing lines.

Richardson was a bit better as a passer in 2023 — albeit on a small sample. He completed 59.5% of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt with a 3.6% TD rate.

Injury History

Richardson has dealt with a ton of injuries through two NFL seasons. He sustained a concussion in Week 2 of 2023 and then a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. He had surgery in October of that year to repair a severe AC joint injury.

Then there were the oblique, abdomen, foot, and back injuries last year.

Richardson revealed near the end of last season that he’s dealt with back spasms since before college that stem from a herniated disc.

He also suffered a hamstring injury, a concussion, and a meniscus injury in college.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts made it clear early in the offseason that Richardson would need to earn the starting job in 2025. Then the team went out and signed QB Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal.

HC Shane Steichen said in early April that Richardson and Jones will split first-team reps throughout the offseason, suggesting that this is truly an open competition.

Jones, of course, had six underwhelming seasons in New York. But he beats Richardson in most key career passing metrics: 

• Completion rate (64.1% to 50.6%)
• INT rate (2.1% to 3.7%)
• Passer rating (84.3 to 67.8)
• Success rate (42.8% to 37.9%)

Richardson beats Jones in yards per attempt (6.9 to 6.5) and TD rate (3.2% to 3.1%). He’s also a more powerful and explosive runner — although Jones is still a plus in that department. Richardson also has an edge of experience in the Colts offense.

But he’ll need to be a significantly better passer this year to win the starting job over Jones.

Supporting Cast

The Colts return last year’s top-five targets in WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Down, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell, and RB Jonathan Taylor.

They made a big upgrade at TE, using the 14th overall pick on Penn State’s Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is especially dangerous after the catch and should make an immediate impact for the Colts.

It’s an above-average pass-catching corps with the upside to be a top-10 unit.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Richardson returns to the same offense he’s operated the last two seasons, led by HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. He deployed a pass-leaning offense with QBs Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert in Los Angeles in 2019 and 2020 but then went run-heavy with QB Jalen Hurts in 2021 and 2022.

The Colts went 44.9% run in Richardson’s two full games in 2023 and 52.9% run in his 10 full games last year.

Expect a run-heavy offense featuring plenty of QB runs whenever Richardson is under center this season.

 

Daniel Jones

Bottom Line:

Jones will duke it out with Anthony Richardson for the Colts’ starting QB job this summer. We lean toward Richardson getting the Week 1 nod based on his raw ability and first-round draft capital. But we’d also bet on Jones making multiple starts this season. That makes him a QB3 consideration in Superflex and best ball drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Jones started the first 10 games of last season for the Giants. He was benched after a Week 10 loss to the Panthers — and then released a few days later. Jones latched on with the Vikings but didn’t play the rest of the season.

He averaged 13.5 fantasy points across his 10 games, which ranked 19th among QBs. Jones averaged just 207 passing yards and 0.8 passing TDs per game. But he ran for 265 yards and two scores. Only five QBs had more rushing yards through Week 10.

Efficiency Metrics

Among 34 QBs with 250+ pass attempts last season, Jones ranked:

• 24th in completion rate
• 9th in adjusted completion rate
• 33rd in yards per attempt
• 25th in Pro Football Focus passing grade

Offensive Context

Jones didn’t get much help from his supporting cast last year. 10.0% of his passes were dropped — the second-highest rate among 34 qualifying QBs.

Jones also operated behind an offensive line that finished the season 26th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 28th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Historical Production & Trends

2024 was just more of the same from Jones. He’s been an underwhelming passer and underrated runner through six NFL seasons. 

Jones has completed a solid 64.1% of his career passes, but his 6.5 yards per attempt ranks 37th among 40 QBs with 1,000+ pass attempts over the last six years. Jones has never topped 6.8 yards per attempt in a season. His two worst per-attempt averages (5.7 and 6.1) have come the last two years.

Jones sports a laughably low 3.1% career TD rate — dead last among those 40 qualifying QBs. A couple seasons of low TD rates can be bad luck. But six years points to a shortcoming with the QB.

Jones has been a productive runner as a pro, though, averaging 31.1 yards per game for his career. His 5.5 yards per carry ranks seventh among 43 QBs with 100+ carries since 2019.

That’s helped Jones be a useful fantasy QB on occasion. Here are his career finishes in points per game:

• 2019 - 15th
• 2020 - 32nd
• 2021 - 21st
• 2022 - 14th
• 2023 - 44th
• 2024 - 19th

Injury History

Jones has missed 22 games across his six NFL seasons with ankle, hamstring, neck, knee, and head injuries. His 2021 season ended with cervical neck strain, and he tore his right ACL in 2023.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Vikings were reportedly interested in bringing Jones back for 2025, but he instead opted to sign a one-year, $14 million deal with the Colts. 

Jones likely saw an easier path to playing time in Indianapolis, where he’ll battle with QB Anthony Richardson. HC Shane Steichen said in early April that Richardson and Jones will split first-team reps throughout the offseason, suggesting that this is truly an open competition.

Although Jones has underwhelmed as a passer, he beats Richardson in most key metrics: 

• Completion rate (64.1% to 50.6%)
• INT rate (2.1% to 3.7%)
• Passer rating (84.3 to 67.8)
• Success rate (42.8% to 37.9%)

Richardson beats Jones in yards per attempt (6.9 to 6.5) and TD rate (3.2% to 3.1%). He’s also a more powerful and explosive runner. And he has the edge of experience in the Colts offense.

But Richardson will need to be a significantly better passer this year to hold off Jones for the starting job. Richardson completed an ugly 47.7% of his throws last season.

Supporting Cast

The Colts return last year’s top-five targets in WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Down, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell, and RB Jonathan Taylor.

They made a big upgrade at TE, using the 14th overall pick on Penn State’s Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is especially dangerous after the catch and should make an immediate impact for the Colts.

It’s an above-average pass-catching corps with the upside to be a top-10 unit.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis. 

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. He deployed a pass-leaning offense with QBs Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert in Los Angeles in 2019 and 2020 but then went run-heavy with QB Jalen Hurts in 2021 and 2022.

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.

We’d expect something in the middle of those two extremes if Jones is under center.

 

Jonathan Taylor

Bottom Line:

Taylor is coming off top-seven finishes in PPR and half-PPR points per game last year, ranking third in rushing yards per game. He’s now scored as a top-11 RB in PPR points per game in four of five NFL seasons. Taylor is locked into a voluminous role again in 2025, making him a good bet for top-10 production. His ceiling extends into the top five.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Taylor carried 303 times for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs in 14 games last season. He missed Weeks 5 through 7 with what was described as a mild high-ankle sprain.

Taylor finished fifth league-wide in carries and fourth in rushing yards. On a per-game basis, he ranked first in carries and third in yards (behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry).

Taylor wasn’t as productive in the passing game, averaging 2.2 targets, 1.3 catches, and 9.7 yards per game.

Still, Taylor finished 13th among RBs in total PPR points and seventh in points per game. In half-PPR scoring, he ranked ninth in total points and fifth in points per game.

Usage & Role

On top of finishing fifth in total carries and first in carries per game, Taylor also ranked:

• 3rd in red-zone carries
• 6th in carries inside the 10-yard line
• 7th in carries inside the five

Taylor’s 11.4 expected rushing TDs ranked fifth league-wide, behind only Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson.

Taylor’s 2.2 targets per game ranked just 44th among RBs. His 7.6% target share in his 14 games ranked 39th.

Despite the underwhelming passing-game usage, Taylor finished fourth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and third in half-PPR.

Efficiency Metrics

Taylor’s 4.7 yards per carry ranked 11th among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year. 

He wasn’t as impressive in advanced metrics, though. Among those 47 RBs, he ranked:

• 15th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
• 40th in yards after contact per attempt
• 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 43rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

The yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and PFF grade were career lows.

Taylor also ranked dead last among 37 RBs with 30+ targets in both yards per route (0.50) and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Taylor’s usage and production were noticeably different in games with QB Anthony Richardson vs. games with QB Joe Flacco. Here are the per-game splits:

Nine games with Richardson:

• 20.2 carries
• 97.7 rush yards
• 4.8 yards per carry
• 0.78 rush TDs
• 1.3 targets
• 0.8 catches
• 9.2 rec yards
• 0.1 rec TDs
• 15.3 expected PPR points per game
• 16.8 actual 

Five games with Flacco:

• 24.2 carries
• 110.4 rush yards
• 4.6 YPC
• 0.8 rush TDs
• 3.8 targets 
• 2.2 catches
• 10.6 rec yards
• 0 rec TDs
• 20.1 expected PPR PPG
• 22.1 actual

Taylor’s scoring averages with Richardson would have ranked 15th in expected PPR points and 11th in actual points. His averages with Flacco would have led all RBs in both expected and actual PPR points per game.

Historical Production & Trends

Taylor’s 17.6 PPR points per game last year were the second-most of his five-year career. But he’s scored 17+ points per game in three of five seasons and 15.6+ in four of five.

Here are Taylor’s career finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2020 - 10th
• 2021 - 2nd
• 2022 - 16th
• 2023 - 11th
• 2024 - 7th

Injury History

Taylor missed six games in 2022 with a right high-ankle sprain that required a cleanup surgery that offseason.

He was sidelined for the first four games of 2023, although it’s unclear how much that had to do with the previous ankle injury vs. the contract dispute between Taylor and the Colts.

A torn ligament in his right thumb later in 2023 needed to be surgically repaired and cost him three games.

Taylor missed three more games last year with another right high-ankle sprain.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Taylor returns as Indianapolis’ feature back in 2025.

The Colts only made minor moves in the backfield this offseason, letting Trey Sermon walk in free agency and adding free-agent Khalil Herbert and fifth-round rookie D.J. Giddens.

Herbert sports a career 4.8 yards-per-carry average. But he’s never topped 132 carries in a season and toted it a career-low 36 times last year. He signed a one-year, $1.38 million deal with the Colts, with less than half of that salary guaranteed. Herbert isn’t even a lock to make the final roster and isn’t a threat to Taylor’s role.

Giddens is the more intriguing addition. He totaled 2,569 rushing yards, 581 receiving yards, and 21 TDs at Kansas State over the last two seasons. The 212-pounder earned a 9.78 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.

Giddens looks like the favorite to win the No. 2 RB job for the Colts, making him the Taylor handcuff. But we’re not expecting him to tangibly impact Taylor’s 2025 usage.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics.

Considering Taylor’s usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value if Jones wins the starting job. If nothing else, Jones would be less of a threat to steal goal-line carries from Taylor.

On the offensive line, the Colts lost C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries to Minnesota in free agency. Kelly has missed 10 games over the last two seasons but still ranked 12th among 32 qualifying Cs in Pro Football Focus grades last year. Fries was off to a strong start last season but suffered a season-ending broken tibia in Week 5.

Fries and Kelly are expected to be replaced by G Matt Goncalves and C Tanor Bortolini, who were third and fourth-round picks, respectively, in 2024. Both showed some promise in spot-start duty last year.

OTs Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann and three-time All-Pro G Quenton Nelson return from last year’s offensive line, which ranked fourth in both ESPN run block win rate and Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades.

Despite the two new starters, this still looks like an above-average offensive line heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third seasons with the Colts. Considering Taylor’s usage and production the past two years, the continuity is good news for his 2025 fantasy outlook.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Taylor’s career lows in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade last year are concerns. But he was much better in all three metrics in 2023. And he’ll play the 2025 season at 26 years old.

Our aging curve research shows that RBs of Taylor’s caliber produce at 96% of their peak at age-26.

 

Josh Downs

Bottom Line:

Downs has been a strong per-route producer through two NFL seasons, giving him exciting upside if his situation improves. But his playing time is unlikely to expand beyond three-WR sets, and the Colts’ QB room remains worrisome. That keeps Downs stuck in WR4 territory in our rankings.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Downs compiled 72 catches, 803 yards, and five TDs across 14 games last season. He missed Weeks 1 and 2 after suffering a high-ankle sprain in August. A shoulder injury cost him Week 13.

Downs ranked 32nd among WRs in PPR points per game and 35th in half-PPR. He was a volatile weekly producer, with seven top-20 PPR finishes but five weeks outside the top 50.

Usage & Role

Downs ran 84.5% of his routes from the slot last season. He was rarely on the field in two-WR sets.

That kept Downs’ snap rate in the 60-75% range most weeks. He topped out at 78.6% of the snaps in Week 6.

More importantly, Downs’ 75% route rate ranked third among Colts and 63rd among WRs league-wide.

Downs still managed to draw 25.6% of Indianapolis’ targets in his 14 games. That led the team and ranked 22nd among all WRs.

Efficiency Metrics

Downs was very impressive on a per-route basis last year — especially in the context of a Colts offense that ranked bottom eight in pass attempts, yards, and TDs.

His 28% target-per-route rate ranked fifth among WRs, behind only Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, and Nico Collins. Downs’ 2.20 yards per route was good for 17th at the position. For comparison, teammates Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce averaged 1.68 and 1.82 yards per route, respectively.

Offensive Context

Downs played seven games apiece with QBs Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco last year. His usage and production were very different with the two passers. Here are the per-game splits:

With Richardson:

• 5.9 targets
• 3.1 catches
• 48.3 yards
• 0.43 TDs
• 54.2% catch rate
• 14.5 yards per catch

With Flacco:

• 9.4 targets
• 7.1 catches
• 66.4 yards
• 0.29 TDs
• 78.0% catch rate
• 9.2 yards per catch

Downs ranked 57th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 46th in actual points per game with Richardson. With Flacco, he ranked 15th in expected points and 17th in actual.

Historical Production & Trends

Downs posted a 68-771-2 line in 17 games as a rookie in 2023. He ranked 43rd among WRs in total PPR points and 56th in PPR points per game.

He posted similar efficiency marks that year, with a 69.4% catch rate, 11.3 yards per catch, and 7.9 yards per target. Downs’ 1.60 yards per route in 2023 ranked 44th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets and eighth among 14 rookie WRs.

Injury History

Downs played all 17 games as a rookie but missed part of Week 9 with a knee injury. He also missed two games in his final college season with a left knee injury.

He had the high-ankle sprain and shoulder injury last year.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts return their top four WRs from last year in Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell.

Downs is locked in as the starting slot receiver. We’ll see if his usage in two-WR sets grows — but we’re not counting on it.

Downs will also face increased target competition from first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is a big upgrade from the Colts’ hodgepodge of TEs last year and should command targets right away.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Considering Downs’ usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value with Jones under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis. 

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. 

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Turning 24 in August, Downs should still be on the ascent. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs of Downs’ caliber produce at 94% of their peak at age-24 (with the peak coming at age-25).

 

Michael Pittman

Bottom Line:

Pittman is coming off a disappointing 2024 season, finishing 51st among WRs in PPR points per game. Anthony Richardson was largely to blame. Pittman scored as the WR27 in six games with QB Joe Flacco. There’s bounce-back potential here if Richardson improves or Daniel Jones takes over. Pittman is a viable WR4 target in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pittman struggled with injuries for much of 2024. 

He popped up on the injury report ahead of Week 3 with back and calf issues. The back injury worsened, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported ahead of Week 6 that Pittman would miss “multiple weeks.” He wound up playing the next four games before missing Week 10. He played the rest of the season, but the back stayed on the injury report. Pittman also dislocated a finger in Week 9 and hurt his shoulder in Week 12.

He finished the tough-luck campaign with 69 catches for 808 yards and three TDs. Pittman ranked 41st among WRs in total PPR points and 51st in points per game.

He had just one top-12 PPR finish and four total weeks inside the top-24 WRs. Pittman failed to crack the top 50 at his position in six of his 16 outings.

Usage & Role

Despite the injuries, Pittman played at least 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps in all 16 of his games. He topped an 85% snap rate in 12 of 16 outings. And his 90% route rate ranked 22nd among WRs.

Pittman drew 111 total targets, which ranked 24th among WRs. His 23.2% target share (in his 16 games) was good for 35th at the position.

Pittman didn’t see much action near scoring territory, though. He ranked 50th among WRs in red-zone targets (18) and tied for 59th in end-zone targets (5).

That’s a big part of the reason Pittman finished just 40th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Pittman’s 62.2% catch rate last year was a career low. That ranked 54th among 89 WRs with 50+ targets — and looks even less impressive when you consider that Pittman averaged just 11.7 yards per catch.

Pittman’s 7.3 yards per target ranked 67th among those 89 WRs. His 1.68 yards per route ranked 47th.

Pittman finished 44th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Pittman played 10 games with QB Anthony Richardson last year and six with QB Joe Flacco. His usage and production were very different with the two passers. Here are the per-game splits:

10 games with Richardson:

• 6.5 targets
• 3.9 catches
• 42.8 yards
• 0 TDs
• 60.0% catch rate
• 11.0 yards per catch

Six games with Flacco:

• 7.7 targets
• 5.0 catches
• 63.3 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• 65.2% catch rate
• 12.7 yards per catch

Pittman ranked 46th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 63rd in actual points per game with Richardson. With Flacco, he ranked 33rd in expected points and 27th in actual.

Historical Production & Trends

Pittman’s 10.5 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since his 2020 rookie season. His finishes in PPR points per game the previous three years:

• 2021 - 30th
• 2022 - 21st
• 2023 - 18th

Pittman saw more targets per game in all three of those seasons than he did last year and averaged more yards per route in two of the three. His 2.04 yards per route in 2023 was a career-best and ranked 22nd among 80 qualifying WRs.

Injury History

On top of the back, calf, finger and shoulder injuries he dealt with last year, Pittman:

• Missed three games in 2020 with compartment syndrome in his calf
• Sustained a concussion in 2020
• Missed one game in 2022 with a quad strain
• Sustained another concussion in 2023

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts return their top four WRs from last year in Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell.

Pittman ranked third among that trio in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year. But his $23 million cap hit makes him a safe bet to remain a full-time player in 2025.

Pittman will face increased target competition, though, from first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is a big upgrade from the Colts’ hodgepodge of TEs last year and should command targets right away.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Considering Pittman’s usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value with Jones under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis. 

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. 

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Pittman turns 28 in October. While that’s past prime for WRs, our aging-curve research shows that WRs of Pittman’s caliber produce at 96% of their peak at age-28.

 

Alec Pierce

Bottom Line:

Pierce is coming off the best season of his career —  but still finished outside the top-50 WRs in PPR and half-PPR points per game. Stuck in a downfield role in a questionable passing game, Pierce is a long shot for reliable 2025 fantasy value. He’s a fine late-round target in best ball drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pierce caught 37 balls for 824 yards and seven TDs in 16 games last year. All three marks were career highs.

Pierce ranked 43rd among WRs in total PPR points and 54th in points per game; 39th in total half-PPR points and 52nd in points per game.

Although he flashed weekly upside, Pierce was nearly impossible to rely on in fantasy lineups. He had four top-12 scoring weeks but finished outside the top 50 WRs seven times.

Usage & Role

Pierce played 80% of the Colts’ offensive snaps last season, registering a 75+% snap rate in 12 of 16 games. His 81% route rate ranked 47th among WRs.

But Pierce finished just 60th at the position with 69 targets. He was largely used as a deep threat, with a 22.8-yard average target depth that led all 84 WRs with 50+ targets. Only D.K. Metcalf had more deep targets than Pierce’s 30.

Efficiency Metrics

Pierce caught just 53.6% of his targets last year — not a surprise considering the huge average target depth.

But his 22.3 yards per catch led 84 qualifying WRs. So did his 11.9 yards per target.

Pierce drew a target on just 15% of his targets, though — 86th among WRs. That left him 34th among WRs in yards per route. That trailed teammate Josh Downs but beat Michael Pittman.

Offensive Context

Pierce played in a Colts offense that finished bottom eight in passing attempts, yards, and TDs. The attack was much more productive under QB Joe Flacco than QB Anthony Richardson.

So was Pierce. Here are the per-game splits:

Nine games with Richardson:

• 4.3 targets
• 2.0 catches
• 42.2 yards
• 0.33 TDs

Seven games with Flacco:

• 4.3 targets
• 2.7 catches
• 63.4 yards
• 0.57 TDs

Historical Production & Trends

Pierce’s average target depth has climbed in each of his three NFL seasons, from 12.2 to 15.7 to 22.8 yards. His yards per target has also improved from 7.6 to 7.9 to 11.9.

But he hasn’t been a strong target earner. He averaged a career-high 78 targets as a rookie in 2022, but that still ranked just 53rd among WRs. Pierce ranked 64th in targets in 2023 and 60th last year.

Here are Pierce’s finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2022 - 85th
• 2023 - 97th
• 2024 - 54th

Injury History

Pierce has sustained two concussions as a pro, one in 2022 and one last year. He missed time with knee and shoulder injuries in college.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts return their top four WRs from last year in Pierce, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell.

Pierce is the favorite to remain a starting outside WR opposite Pittman, but Mitchell could push him for snaps in his second season. Downs is locked in as the primary slot receiver.

Pierce will also face increased target competition from first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is a big upgrade from the Colts’ hodgepodge of TEs last year and should command targets right away.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Considering Pierce’s usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value with Jones under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis. 

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. 

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.

Tyler Warren

Bottom Line:

Warren is coming off a huge 2024 season at Penn State and went 14th overall to the Colts in the draft. He’s set to play a big role under HC Shane Steichen, who has a strong history of TE production. But Indianapolis’ QB situation and likely run-leaning offense are concerns. Warren is best-treated as a TE2 with the upside to emerge as a top-10 option.

2024 Summary

College Production

Warren is coming off a historically productive 2024 season. 

His 104 catches and 1,233 receiving yards were the fourth biggest tallies by a TE in NCAA history. Warren dominated the Penn State passing game, drawing a 31.6% target share and accounting for 38.5% of the team’s receiving yards. Warren ranked second among 86 qualifying TEs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and third in yards per route. AND he ran it 26 times for 281 yards and four TDs. 

Warren is at his best with the ball in his hands, averaging 6.6 yards after the catch per reception for his career. He’s also comfortable making plays in traffic and has strong hands. He caught 62% of his contested targets last year and registered a sterling 2.8% drop rate.

The knocks against Warren? 

The big 2024 came in his fifth college season. Warren totaled just 15 catches over his first three years at Penn State and then split time with very similar production as Theo Johnson in 2023. 

Warren hasn’t been much of a downfield threat, either. He had a career 7.5-yard average target depth, and only 6% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield over the last two seasons. 

Injury History

Warren enters the NFL with a clean bill of health. He didn’t miss any games with injury over his five years at Penn State.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts nabbed Warren with the 14th overall pick of this spring’s draft and have been talking him up since.

GM Chris Ballard: “Tyler Warren can play as an in-line TE, he can line up out wide, he can line up in the slot, he can line up at QB, you can line him up in the backfield as a fullback. There are a lot of creative ways you can use him that we’re all excited about.”

HC Shane Steichen: “He’s physical with the ball in his hands. He gets YAC, he’ll lay the wood on you, he’ll hurdle you. He’s gonna bring a lot to our team, for sure. … He’s a big target who plays above the rim. When guys are on him, he’s still open.”

Warren is clearly set up to play a lot of snaps and hold a big role in this Colts offense right away.

The target competition is fairly stout, though. WRs Josh Downs and Michael Pittman have both proven capable of commanding target shares north of 20%.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons, with a career 6.5 yards per attempt and 3.1% TD rate. But he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Jones gives the Colts another option at the position, but they’re still unlikely to get anything better than league-average QB play in 2025. And this figures to remain a run-leaning offense regardless of who’s under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis. 

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. 

He also had a nice history of TE production prior to arriving in Indianapolis, where the team simply hasn’t had talent at the position. Hunter Henry finished TE9 and TE12 in PPR points under Steichen with the Chargers in 2019 and 2020. Steichen went to Philadelphia the following year and landed both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert inside the top-10 TEs. Goedert finished TE11 under Steichen in 2022.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Warren and Colston Loveland became the fourth and fifth TEs to go in Round 1 of the NFL Draft since 2020. Here’s where the other three finished in PPR points per game as rookies:

• Kyle Pitts - 12th
• Dalton Kincaid - 13th
• Brock Bowers - 2nd