C.J. Stroud Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Stroud was one of the bigger disappointments at QB last year, finishing QB18 in total fantasy points and 20th in points per game — after being picked as a top-eight QB in most drafts.

If we omit the meaningless Week 18 game that Stroud left early … he sinks to 21st in points per game.

Stroud was barely usable in 1-QB leagues, finishing as a top-12 QB in just three of 16 full outings. And two of those came in the season’s first four weeks. Stroud ranked QB18 or worse in 9 of his final 12 full games.

Usage & Role

Stroud didn’t hurt for volume or opportunity last year. He ranked 11th league-wide in total pass attempts (532), 16th in red-zone attempts (59), and 16th in throws into the end zone (30).

He finished 15th among QBs in expected fantasy points per game at 17.2 — but averaged just 14.7 points per game. That -2.5 differential was the second worst (behind only Daniel Jones) among QBs with 300+ attempts.

Efficiency Metrics

Stroud was below average in most efficiency metrics last year. Among 28 QBs with 300+ attempts, he ranked:

• 22nd in completion rate
• 18th in yards per attempt
• 20th in adjusted yards per attempt
• 24th in TD rate
• 23rd in passer rating
• 23rd in success rate

Stroud ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade, though, suggesting that his film was at least a little better than the production and efficiency.

Offensive Context

The 2024 Texans were a pass-leaning offense that played with average pace. They ranked:

• 15th in plays
• 22nd in pace (seconds per snap)
• 9th in pass rate
• 10th in neutral pass rate
• 6th in pass rate over expected
• 11th in pass attempts

Stroud opened the season with one of the league’s best WR trios in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. Those three wound up playing just three full games together (the first three weeks of the season).

Collins hurt a hamstring in Week 5 and missed the next five games. Diggs suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 8. Dell missed Week 4 with a chest injury and then went down with a multi-ligament knee injury in Week 16.

WRs John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson played bigger roles than expected in the passing game.

Stroud also played behind a bad offensive line last year. Houston ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Stroud took the league’s second-most sacks (52) and had the seventh-highest sack rate (8.9%)

Historical Production & Trends

Stroud’s disappointing 2024 followed an awesome 2023 rookie campaign. He finished ninth among QBs in total fantasy points and 13th in points per game. Stroud was a top-12 scorer in eight of 15 games.

He averaged 18.3 expected fantasy points per game in 2023 — and outkicked it with 19.1 actual points per game. Stroud was much more efficient as a rookie:

• 63.9% completion rate (vs. 63.2% last year)
• 8.2 yards per attempt (vs. 7.0)
• 4.6% TD rate (vs. 3.8%)

Stroud’s 79.6 Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2023 ranked 14th among 29 qualifiers.

Injury History

Stroud was healthy throughout the 2024 season. He missed two games in 2023 with a concussion and missed one game with a shoulder injury at Ohio State in 2021.

2025 Expectations

Supporting Cast

There’s been a lot of turnover in Houston’s WR corps. Dell will likely miss the 2025 season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. Diggs left for New England in free agency.

That duo will be replaced by some combination of WRs Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel.

The Texans sent a 2026 seventh-round pick to Jacksonville for Kirk in March. The Jaguars had planned to release Kirk after he averaged 47.4 yards across eight games last year, missing the final nine with a fractured collarbone. Kirk had averaged 57+ yards per game in his previous three seasons and turns just 29 in November. There’s some bounce-back potential here, although Kirk has never been a difference-maker.

Higgins is the more exciting addition. The 6’4, 214-pounder is a physical WR with sneaky athleticism. He’s drawn comparisons to new teammate Nico Collins. Higgins is coming off a 1,183-yard 2024 season at Iowa State and figures to start on the outside opposite Collins right away.

Noel out-produced Higgins at Iowa State last year, going for 1,194 yards on 80 receptions. He’s undersized at 5’10, 194 pounds but is an explosive athlete with sub-4.4 speed. He projects as a primary slot receiver as a pro and could push Kirk for playing time as early as this year.

Most importantly, Collins returns as one of the league’s top WRs. He’s averaged 85.3 yards per game over the last two seasons, with a 71.2% catch rate and 15.6 yards per catch. Collins’ 11.1 yards per target across the last two years ranks second among 82 WRs with 100+ targets.

This WR corps doesn’t have the upside that last year’s did — but hopefully it can deliver a healthier season.

Houston’s offensive line remains a major question mark heading into 2025. Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

This unit remains worrisome, with the downside to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

He’s also expected to give Stroud more freedom to change plays at the line of scrimmage.

"Taking control and being a little more pre-snap, having tools to put my guys in the best position,” Stroud said in April. “He is all about me taking full ownership, running the show, and that's what I want. So, it's really been really cool just to see that he's bought into me.”