NFL Coaching Changes 2024

NFL Coaching Changes Will Alter Fantasy Roles

You probably know the marquee names from this coaching cycle:

HC Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles …

OC Kellen Moore in Philadelphia ...

OC Kliff Kingsbury in Washington ...

But what about the less-established, lesser-known coaching changes?

And most importantly, what does each of these NFL coaching changes mean for their team's offense? 

Let's examine the coaching changes for 15 teams -- each with a fantasy football slant.

NFL Coaching Changes 2024: AFC

• Bengals OC Dan Pitcher
• Browns OC Ken Dorsey
• Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman
• Raiders OC Luke Getsy
• Patriots HC Jerod Mayo and OC Alex Van Pelt
• Steelers OC Arthur Smith
• Titans HC Brian Callahan and OC Nick Holz

NFL Coaching Changes 2024: NFC

• Falcons HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson
• Panthers HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik
• Bears OC Shane Waldron
• Saints OC Klint Kubiak
• Eagles OC Kellen Moore
• Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb
• Buccaneers OC Liam Coen
• Commanders HC Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury

 

Cincinnati Bengals Coaching Change: OC Dan Pitcher

2023 pass rate: 63.5%
2023 run rate: 36.5%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 62%
Projected 2024 run rate: 38%

Promoting From Within

Pitcher takes over for Brian Callahan, the only OC to work alongside Joe Burrow to date.

Pitcher, however, has served on Cincy’s staff since 2016. He has held the QBs coach title since 2020. So this looks like a continuity play.

"He [Pitcher] has excelled in his job of helping develop our quarterbacks over the past five years," HC Zac Taylor said this offseason. "He has been a top contributor to our scheme and that role will now increase."

2024 Fantasy Impact

We’re not forecasting major changes here, as Taylor is expected to remain the play-caller. 

Last year, the Bengals ranked second in pass rate over expected – despite missed time from Joe Burrow.

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Cleveland Browns Coaching Change: OC Ken Dorsey

2023 pass rate: 57.2%
2023 run rate: 42.8%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 55.2%
Projected 2024 run rate: 44.8%

Dorsey Exits Buffalo … But was it Deserved? 

The Bills fired Dorsey last year after a 5-5 start.

It seemed like he was the fall guy for Josh Allen’s turnovers, though. The 43-year-old steered Buffalo to the following rankings (through Week 10):

• Third in Expected Points Added
• Second in Rush EPA
• Eighth in Dropback EPA
• First in Success Rate

In 2022, Buffalo ranked second in points and yards.

Browns QB Turned OC

Dorsey replaces Alex Van Pelt, who held down the OC role in Kevin Stefanski’s first four seasons.

We don’t know if Dorsey or Stefanski will call plays. But according to reporter Mary Kay Cabot, Dorsey’s “fingerprints are all over the offense.” The former Browns QB will run a “very similar offense that Deshaun Watson ran in Houston under Bill O’Brien.”

2024 Fantasy Impact

This offense figures to go as far as Watson will take it – especially with Nick Chubb rehabbing a serious knee injury. 

Watson hasn’t posted impactful fantasy numbers since 2020 and now returns from November shoulder surgery.

Still, a familiar offense is bound to help. Don’t count him out as a potential spot starter.

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Los Angeles Chargers Coaching Change: HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman

2023 pass rate: 61%
2023 run rate: 39%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 55.8%
Projected 2024 run rate: 44.2%

Run. Run. Run.

It’s an understandable expectation for this new duo.

No Mystery in the History

From 2011-2014, Harbaugh’s 49ers ranked top 10 annually in rush attempts.

Removing the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Harbaugh’s Michigan offenses  all averaged at least 37(!) carries per game. And that’s over a nine-season sample.

You might know a similar story for Roman, who served as Harbaugh’s play-caller in San Francisco. In Roman’s 10 seasons as an OC, his units have never dipped below ninth in rush attempts.

2024 Fantasy Impact

It’s easy to see this ground game churning out top-5 production – especially after adding Round 1 RT Joe Alt.

But will it come from Gus Edwards? J.K. Dobbins? Rookie Kimani Vidal? This might start as a hot-hand situation.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert looks tough to buy as a QB1. His pass-catching corps turns up more questions than answers. And we’d like to see some evolution from Roman’s old-school tendencies.

Note: In his most recent stint as OC (Baltimore, 2019-2022), Roman ranked first or second in first down rush rate each year. 

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Las Vegas Raiders Coaching Change: OC Luke Getsy

2023 pass rate: 59.1%
2023 run rate: 40.9%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 57.2%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42.8%

The Raiders nearly hired new Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury. When Kingsbury withdrew his name from consideration, Vegas pivoted to Getsy. 

Getsy Underwhelms in Chicago

Getsy spent most of the past 10 seasons as a QBs coach or WRs coach in Green Bay. He earned the Bears’ OC job in 2022 and held it until he was fired in January. 

Justin Fields played a role in the offense leaning run (28th or lower in pass rate over expected for two straight seasons). Overall, Getsy’s game plans often lacked creativity and direction.

The Bears ranked 24th in yards per play last season; 20th in 2022. 

2024 Fantasy Impact

Here’s the positive: Getsy meshes well with run-loving HC Antonio Pierce.

As you can see above, we have the Raiders leaning more toward the run. That puts Zamir White in a fine spot, provided he holds off backfield competition.

This offseason, Davante Adams said Getsy will utilize the “same verbiage … same playbook” from Green Bay. Good news for Adams’ transition, sure. But it’s hard to feel confident about this passing game – beyond Adams – with a QB duo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. 

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New England Patriots Coaching Change: HC Jerod Mayo and OC Alex Van Pelt

2023 pass rate: 59.3%
2023 run rate: 40.7%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 57.5%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42.5%

Post-Belichick Patriots

The Pats promoted from within, making Mayo their first HC hire since 1999.

Van Pelt has experience as an OC/QBs coach in Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Although experienced, Van Pelt doesn’t bring a standout resume. 

You have to go back to the 2010 Buccaneers to find a QB he helped propel to a career year (Josh Freeman).

In five stops as an OC, his units slotted 21st, second, ninth, fifth, and fourth in rush attempts. That mindset aligns with Mayo and New England’s 2024 personnel. 

2024 Fantasy Impact

The Pats weren’t happy to be pushing a 60% pass rate in 2023.

That number is set to drop in Drake Maye’s rookie campaign, even with some promising offseason additions (Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker).

But will Maye even be under center come Week 1? A June piece in The Athletic suggests Jacoby Brissett will get the opening day nod.

We’ll keep a close eye on the passing game this summer – as well as how touches are divvied up between Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. 

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Pittsburgh Steelers Coaching Change: OC Arthur Smith

2023 pass rate: 53.3%
2023 run rate: 46.7%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 51%
Projected 2024 run rate: 49%

Before you hated Smith for his work in Atlanta, you were intrigued by his performance in Tennessee.

Let’s get reacquainted with….

OC Smith

Smith’s Titans ranked fifth in yards per play in both 2019 and 2020. They finished eighth in passing TDs in consecutive years.

Keep in mind: These offenses were piloted by QB Ryan Tannehill. Smith coached the two best seasons out of the former Dolphin, including a 2019 that turned up a massive 9.0 yards per pass attempt.

HC Smith

In Atlanta, Smith never led Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, or Desmond Ridder to even average play. His passing offenses went 19th, 31st, and 25th in yards.

Instead, the focus stayed on rushing. In fact, Smith’s tendencies closely match what we saw from Pittsburgh in 2023 under former OC Matt Canada.

The Steelers led the league in situation-neutral run rate (49.5%). 

Atlanta finished second.

The Steelers ranked second in rush rate inside the 10-yard line.

Atlanta finished third.

Overall, the Falcons ranked ahead of the Steelers in rushes per game (30.7 to 28.3).

2024 Fantasy Impact

Pittsburgh should remain run-leaning in 2024. It’s a win for the 1-2 punch of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who sits higher in our PPR rankings but trails Harris in our non-PPR rankings.

The passing game doesn’t hold much appeal beyond George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth.

Pickens supplies breakout potential ... amid a wide range of outcomes.

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Tennessee Titans Coaching Change: HC Brian Callahan and OC Nick Holz

2023 pass rate: 55.7%
2023 run rate: 44.3%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 58.5%
Projected 2024 run rate: 41.5%

Callahan will call plays for the first time in his career. 

His resume includes stops as an offensive assistant, QBs coach, and OC. Dating back to 2010, Callahan has coached Peyton Manning, Joe Burrow, and Matthew Stafford.

Holz was a relative unknown before landing this gig. 

He has spent most of his career with the Raiders (2012-2021), surviving several HC firings. Holz served as UNLV's OC in 2022 and then Jacksonville's passing game coordinator in 2023.

Clues in Cincinnati?

We can look to Callahan’s time with the Bengals to help forecast what’s ahead. 

The Bengals ranked top 5 in 11 personnel rate each year with Callahan and HC Zac Taylor. Meanwhile, the Titans never cracked the top 20 under former HC Mike Vrabel.

Cincy also ranked top 6 in pass rate in consecutive seasons.

Now consider Tennessee’s offseason additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. A once-barren WR depth chart suddenly looks deep, helping support potential 11 personnel usage.

Just don't expect a sudden emergence from former Round 1 WR Treylon Burks. In June, Callahan mentioned Burks as a potential contributor on special teams.

Run-Game Impact

A more spread-out base formation will lighten boxes for RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

Last year, only Christian McCaffrey topped Derrick Henry in rate of 8+ defenders in the box, per Next Gen Stats. Henry ranked second in 2022 as well.

The Titans bolstered the O-line with offseason additions C Lloyd Cushenberry and Round 1 OT JC Latham.

2024 Fantasy Impact

Tennessee’s offense looks solid on paper. But can Will Levis turn the flashes he showed last year into something more consistent?

Learning another new offense – after playing with two different OCs at Kentucky – isn’t ideal. But the 2024 Titans will feature a more modern offense that’ll give Levis a shot to emerge as a fantasy spot-starter.

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Atlanta Falcons Coaching Change: HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson

2023 pass rate: 52.2%
2023 run rate: 47.8%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 57.5%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42.5%

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport called Zac Robinson one of the “most popular” candidates this cycle.

Robinson spent four years as a college QB and several more in the NFL. Since 2019, he has held multiple roles under Rams HC Sean McVay.

The McVay connection is enough to get us excited. 

New Approach

The Falcons finished bottom 5 in pass rate each of the past two seasons. Traditionally, the Rams rank around mid-pack with McVay. 

Kirk Cousins instantly gives them a shot to roll out a McVay staple: 11 personnel. L.A. used the 3-WR setup on 90.3% of their plays last year -- well ahead of the league average (60.6%).

Robinson’s also coming from an offense that heavily utilized pre-snap motion.

2024 Fantasy Impact

Robinson hasn’t called plays at the NFL level. 

But we’re considering him an upgrade in fantasy simply for the move to a 21st-century offense. Our numbers have Atlanta’s pass rate jumping by more than 5 percentage points.

Drake London brings breakout potential. His Round 2 ADP just means he’s not a value.

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Carolina Panthers Coaching Change: HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik

2023 pass rate: 59.4%
2023 run rate: 40.6%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 57.5%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42.5%

Carolina fired HC Frank Reich after 11 games on the job. 

Did they make the right move in swapping in this new offensive braintrust?

Canales Talks Run Game

Canales looks to overhaul a 2023 unit that ranked 30th in EPA per play.

His stated plan of attack: run the ball.

"The Intent of our offense is to run the ball ... and we believe in that,” Canales said at the NFL Combine. “We believe that opens up everything we want to do."

He continued:

“It’s something that I’m gonna be stubborn about. It’s something that I’m gonna be committed to. It’s how you create explosive plays in the play action, but then it’s also how you’re able to neutralize a really good offense on the other side.”

2023 Bucs Weren’t Run Heavy

The 2023 Bucs were an overall success, elevated by Baker Mayfield’s rebound year. 

Interestingly, Canales’ offseason quotes don’t quite match up with the 2023 results. They ranked 11th league-wide in pass rate (62%); 15th in pass rate over expected (-1.7%). 

Tampa Bay’s rush rate jumped to 10th in neutral situations and 14th on first downs. So there was an attempt to establish the run – but clearly no run-game stubbornness.

The 2024 focus should be on boosting efficiency. Rachaad White managed a bottom-barrel -0.41 rush yards over expected per attempt.

Sidekick Role for Idzik

Idzik is now the youngest OC in the league. He won’t call plays but brings familiarily with Canales, having worked together for five seasons.

The 32-year-old spent 2019-2022 as an assistant WRs/QBs coach and quality control coach with Seattle. He followed Canales to Tampa Bay last year, where he served as WRs coach.

2024 Fantasy Impact

RB Jonathon Brooks arrives as a 21-year-old rookie with only 238 collegiate carries.

Rehab from an ACL tear adds short-term uncertainty, but Carolina did well to bolster the O-line with guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. 

Brooks ultimately looks like a risk worth taking with a fantasy football ADP of RB32.

Elsewhere, we’re optimistic Canales can steer QB Bryce Young closer to league-average play. But will he rise to the level of a fantasy starter? 

Consider it a long shot.

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Chicago Bears Coaching Change: OC Shane Waldron

2023 pass rate: 51.3%
2023 run rate: 48.7%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 59%
Projected 2024 run rate: 41%

Waldron spent the past three seasons as Seattle's OC. He called plays for Geno Smith’s improbable career year in 2022.

Before that stint, he held roles of TEs/QBs coach and pass-game coordinator for Sean McVay.

As you can see above, we expect a drastic shift in offensive philosophy. 

Here’s why:

Letting it Fly

The Seahawks weren’t afraid to lean pass under Waldron. Despite rostering Kenneth Walker, they finished fifth and 13th in pass rate across the past two seasons.

This even turned up in some telling situations.

From 2022-2023, Seattle’s pass rate ranked top 12 in the red zone, on first downs, and in neutral situations, per Fantasy Points.

If Caleb Williams’ talent shines early, it’s reasonable to project similar usage.

2024 Fantasy Impact

Chicago built up the WR corps with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. 

Add them to an offense with D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift, and it’s fair to expect a rotating cast of top performers.

We’ll also see if Swift can push for another 270 touches after signing a deal with $15.3 million guaranteed.

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New Orleans Saints Coaching Change: OC Klint Kubiak

2023 pass rate: 57.2%
2023 run rate: 42.8%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 57.5%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42.5%

Kubiak spent 2023 as the 49ers' passing game coordinator. He brings one year of OC experience – 2021 with the Vikings.

That year, they ranked:

• 12th in yards
• 14th in points
• 16th in rush attempts
• 11th in pass attempts

We expect Kubiak’s offense to resemble San Francisco’s, though.

'Eye-Opening' Season in SF

Kubiak spoke highly of his experience alongside HC Kyle Shanahan.

“Just being here a year, my experience is, Kyle really lets you into his brain in his game plan meetings,” Kubiak told SI. “He’s thinking out loud in what he’s looking for and what he wants to attack, the players he wants to attack certain coverages with. He’s such a bright coach. Just to be around him, you soak in things that are important to him and things he uses to make decisions.”

Shanahan staples include outside-zone running, pre-snap motion, and an attacking style over the middle. The goal is to give the QB answers – something Shanahan has accomplished with Brock Purdy.

“It’s all for the quarterback to get the most successful play you can give him with the most answers, Kubiak said. “It’s been a really eye-opening experience, a really positive experience. I’m just lucky to be a part of it.” 

2024 Fantasy Impact

We’re underwhelmed by New Orleans’ receiving options beyond Chris Olave.

Kubiak, though, has spoken this offseason about emphasizing the run. In an interview with WWL Radio, he talked about being “grounded” in the run game and having a mentality of running against “eight-man fronts.” 

This gives us some optimism for 22-year-old Kendre Miller. If he stays healthy, Miller should eat into Alvin Kamara’s rushing load. 

We’ll keep a close eye on the development of New Orleans’ potentially shaky O-line.

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Philadelphia Eagles Coaching Change: OC Kellen Moore

2023 pass rate: 54.9%
2023 run rate: 45.1%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 52.8%
Projected 2024 run rate: 47.2%

The Eagles fired OC Brian Johnson after just one season.

Their solution? Bring in Moore, who garnered a HC interview with the Chargers after serving as their OC last season.

But should we be concerned about his performance in Los Angeles?

Explainable(?) Struggles

The 2023 Chargers ranked 18th in yards; 21st in points. They were especially poor on the ground (25th in rushing yards; 27th in yards per carry).

But dig into their injury situation, and you see the problem.

• Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen each missed four games.
• Mike Williams and C Corey Linsley each lasted only 3 games.
• Austin Ekeler played most of the year with a high-ankle injury. 

Remember -- one year prior, Moore was considered one of the league’s fastest-rising assistants. 

2024 Fantasy Impact

There might be an OC change here, but target distribution won’t change much.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for a 48% target share last year. Our projection for 2024 sits slightly below that.

Consider the arrival of Saquon Barkley. Earning $26 million guaranteed at signing, there's no debate over his workhorse role.

One wrinkle to anticipate: more emphasis on motion. The Chargers used motion at the snap on 25% of their plays last year – eighth in the league, per ESPN.

The Eagles sat dead last at 10.9%.

If you have any Eagles players as keeper options, utilize our Keeper Calculator to help make the decision easier.

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Seattle Seahawks Coaching Change: HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb

2023 pass rate: 61.6%
2023 run rate: 38.4%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 59.2%
Projected 2024 run rate: 40.8%

Macdonald orchestrated some excellent defensive units in Baltimore, so he’ll turn the keys over to Grubb on offense.

It’ll be Grubb’s first crack at an NFL coaching gig.

High-Flying Huskies

Over the past two seasons, Grubb helped QB Michael Penix Jr. perform as one of the nation's top QBs. The Huskies averaged 370 and 343.3 passing yards per game, albeit with units heavy on NFL talent. 

Penix’s deep-ball rate jumped from 15.9% to 21% in 2023. Overall, Grubb’s offense called for a menu of throws both inside and outside the numbers.

Grubb is less proven on the ground. Although he incorporated a variety of run concepts, Washington RBs ultimately combined for 4.7 and 4.3 YPC over the past two seasons – unspectacular figures at the college level.

2024 Fantasy Impact

This attacking style of offense could get Geno Smith closer to his 2022 form. That’s when his TDs, adjusted completion rate, QB rating, and PFF passing grade all turned up career highs on deep throws.

Recall that Smith finished as the fantasy QB5 in 2022.

Keep an eye on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He's garnered offseason praise from Macdonald, who called the second-year WR "a massive piece" on offense.

Kenneth Walker will likely remain the featured back, but the new staff gives Zach Charbonnet a chance to earn more work. He handled 8.8 touches per game as a rookie.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Coaching Change: OC Liam Coen

2023 pass rate: 58.9%
2023 run rate: 41.1%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 58%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42%

Coen called plays for Will Levis’ breakout 2021 at Kentucky. He spent three years before that and one after on Sean McVay's staff (assistant WR coach, assistant QB coach, OC).

2023 will be the first time he holds an NFL play-calling sheet.

Run Game Upgrade?

The 2023 Bucs ranked 32nd in rushing yards, 28th in rush attempts, and 32nd in YPC.

They shied away from the run in high-value situations, firing off goal-line runs at the league’s fourth-lowest rate.

Coen figures to bring over a motion-heavy, McVay-style, zone-run scheme. Personnel upgrades arrived this offseason, too, including Round 4 RB Bucky Irving and Round 1 C Graham Barton.

2024 Fantasy Impact

We project a similar run-pass split for 2024. But expect at least a small efficiency boost from this ground game.

A new play-caller and the arrival of Irving suggests Rachaad White won’t see another 20.1 opportunities per game. 

Losing Canales might hurt Baker Mayfield’s chances of repeating his rebound year (QB12 fantasy finish).

Let him go undrafted in most 1-QB leagues.

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Washington Commanders Coaching Change: HC Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury

2023 pass rate: 66.1%
2023 run rate: 33.9%
Projected 2024 pass rate: 57.8%
Projected 2024 run rate: 42.2%

Kingsbury made the jump from college to pro HC in 2019. 

What followed: Four unsuccessful seasons of a spread-you-out, up-tempo offense.

His offenses flashed, but results didn’t match an offensive guru reputation.

Kingsbury spent 2023 as a senior offensive analyst for USC.

Kingsbury Hints at Offense

Here’s what Kingsbury shared at his introductory press conference.

“We want to be balanced,” he said. “We want to be able to run the football and play-action pass and really do whatever it takes to win.”

That might come as a surprise to some. But even with his Air Raid background, Arizona didn’t consistently lean pass under his direction.

Here's how they slotted in pass rate:

• 14th (2019)
• 24th (2020)
• 21st (2021)
• 7th (2022)

And that was with four years of Kyler Murray – plus names like DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Marquise Brown.

2024 Fantasy Impact

Kingbury’s method of attack will be a bit of a mystery until we see it.

But expect to see plenty of shotgun looks, with RPOs to maximize Jayden Daniels’ talent. Kingsbury has already praised Daniels’ preparation and work ethic at OTAs. 

The backfield figures to benefit from the threat of Daniels’ legs. Still, an Austin Ekeler-Brian Robinson duo screams timeshare.

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Factor In Coaching Changes On Draft Day

Coaching changes are just one of many factors fueling the industry's top draft tool -- the Draft War Room.

Learn how it'll change your 2024 fantasy football season: