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Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Forecast: What if They Run A LOT More?

Los Angeles Chargers 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Justin Herbert

Bottom Line: High-End QB2 with Potential for More

We know Herbert’s good. We know he’s not likely to throw the ball nearly as much as he did over his first three seasons. What we can’t know is how the run-pass split will break down. That makes Herbert a high-level QB2 at draft time – with upside into QB1 territory.

2024 Summary

Production Spiked Over Second Half

• Herbert finished 13th in total fantasy points; 16th in fantasy points per game.
• He finished five weeks inside the top 12 – all from Week 8 on.
  • That included no finishes higher than sixth, though he reached that level twice.

• Herbert finished three other weeks as the QB13.

Herbert Delivered High Efficiency on Limited Volume

Herbert powered through a rough first five weeks to close the year with his highest Pro Football Focus grades to date for passing and total offense.

He posted a career-long 9.2-yard average depth of target, which helped support career highs in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Herbert also delivered a career-best QB rating (101.7).

A career-low in pass attempts per game, however, led to a career low in passing yards per game. That marked the third straight season in which Herbert’s yards per game declined.

Herbert’s Numbers Improve with Offensive Shift

Last year marked the first season with Jim Harbaugh as HC and Greg Roman as OC. Each came from run-heavy backgrounds, and 2024 started that way for the Chargers.

Through four weeks (before the bye), L.A. sported a 40.4% pass rate in neutral situations, and a -8.3% pass rate vs. expectation – both second-lowest in the league.

From Week 5 on, that jumped to 60.7% neutral pass rate – second only to the Bengals – and 4.0% pass rate over expectation (seventh-highest).

Herbert jumped from 22.8 pass attempts and a paltry 144.5 yards per game over the first four contests – which featured some injury questions we’ll get to in a minute – to 31.8 and 253.2 the rest of the way.

Those 253.2 yards per game would have marked an increase vs. his 2023 average but still ranked just fourth among his five NFL seasons.

Herbert's High-Volume History Still Clashes with Coaches

Herbert operated more pass-heavy offenses over his first three seasons. From 2020-22, he attempted the second-most passes in the league, trailing only Tom Brady.

Herbert also ranked third in passing yards per game over that span – trailing Patrick Mahomes and Brady – despite a modest 7.2 yards per attempt and No. 16 ranking in passing success rate.

Last year’s full-season 54.5% pass rate finished higher than any of Harbaugh’s four teams as HC of San Francisco. Three of those squads finished short of 50% pass for the year.

Similarly, Roman’s four years as Ravens OC finished with these pass rates:

• 44.0%
• 44.1%
• 56.4%
• 50.0%

That 56.4% high point? That came in 2021, when the Ravens lost J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill before the season – and then Lamar Jackson for five games.

QB Fought Off Troublesome Injuries

Despite playing in every game last year, Herbert didn’t have an easy time with injuries:

• He dealt with a plantar fascia injury in his right foot throughout August, though he said he was “through it” by Week 1.
• Herbert suffered a high ankle sprain in the opener but played through it until a Week 3 aggravation sidelined him late. (He made it back for the following game. But that aforementioned slow passing start could have been a symptom of these injuries.)
• Herbert added one more seemingly minor ankle/foot injury in Week 14.

Just two games all season found Herbert playing less than 98% of the snaps, though. And one of those he left early because he was blowing out the Patriots.

The only games Herbert has lost to injury so far in his career came after a Week 14 hand fracture in 2023 that required surgery.

2025 Expectations

McConkey and Harris Could Unlock Herbert’s Potential

Then-rookie WR Ladd McConkey was the only Charger to reach 100 targets last season. WR Quentin Johnston checked in second at 91, with Josh Palmer third at 65.

L.A. let Palmer walk (for probably more than he’s worth) to Buffalo. It imported veteran Mike Williams (one year, $3 million) and second-round WR Tre Harris.

At 23 and coming off a terrific couple of years in the SEC, Harris clearly arrives with more upside. We’ll see what Williams has left at 30 (until Oct. 4), but the relatively tiny contract says you shouldn’t expect a lot.

McConkey, on the other hand, delivered beyond what could have been expected as a rookie. He and Harris could quickly become the kind of inside-outside complementary WR duo that helps maximize Herbert’s efficiency.

Johnston improved in Year 2 but tied for just 50th among WRs in yards per route – despite nearly doubling that rate vs. his rookie season. He doesn’t appear on track to becoming a star but could be a useful third WR.

Trouble Beyond the Starters?

The WR corps offers little attractive depth beyond that, however. And there’s nothing exciting at TE.

Will Dissly’s first Chargers season produced career highs in:

• targets, by 26 over his previous high
• receptions, by 16
• and receiving yards, by 132

But he also posted career lows in yards per catch (9.6) and yards per target (7.5). So Dissly’s involvement likely came more because of a dearth of better options than by him earning opportunities.

The Chargers added TE Tyler Conklin on a modest one-year deal in free agency. Conklin had the impressive accomplishment of averaging even fewer yards per catch last year than Dissly (8.8).

More Receiving for RBs?

Perhaps we’ll see more receiving work go to RBs in Harbaugh’s second season. We certainly should. No team produced fewer RB receptions last year than the Chargers’ 43.

L.A. upgraded its backfield by punting both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, signing Najee Harris, and drafting Omarion Hampton in Round 1.

Those moves could also, however, signal a desire to lean back further toward the run in 2025.

Will Harbaugh and Roman Buck Run-Heavy Backgrounds?

We only had four seasons of Harbaugh and Roman together in the NFL before last year. That run-heavy San Francisco span included 2.5 years of Colin Kaepernick as the starting QB and mostly limited WR groups. But it’s worth noting those 49ers went 50-50 run-pass.

Roman’s Baltimore years are obviously skewed – at least a bit – by having Lamar Jackson as his primary QB. But his six non-Harbaugh years as an NFL OC (two in Buffalo, four in Baltimore) found his offenses running 50.5% of the time overall.

College rates are tough to weigh for NFL purposes, but Harbaugh leaned hard on the run both over his four years at Stanford – including two with Andrew Luck at QB – and nine years at Michigan (including a pair of seasons with first-round QB J.J. McCarthy).

The overall history for each coach says we should expect plenty of running. But just how much for this year’s particular team – and this quarterback – is tough to project.

Herbert’s Growth Sparks Optimism in Passing Game

Herbert has improved his passing-TD rate each of the past two years. And he led the league in INT rate (0.6%) last season. Those factors plus his aforementioned career highs in yards per pass attempt, yards per completion, and passer rating should give the coaches confidence.

His career-high aDOT in 2024 points to such confidence. The Chargers also ranked a solid 12th in total offensive DVOA last season, with the passing offense (eighth) strongly outperforming the run game (21st).

That overall offensive rating also lines up with the Chargers’ No. 11 rank last season in scoring and No. 15 in yards per play.

Omarion Hampton

Bottom Line: Hampton’s Draft Cost Might Outrun Early Production

Najee Harris presents touch competition. But Hampton’s the superior talent. And his first-round draft capital shows how much the Chargers like him. Just be wary of grabbing Hampton too early in drafts. Managers might need to stay patient through an early-season work split.

2024 Summary

Hampton’s College Dominance Signals Immediate Impact

Hampton led the ACC in carries and rushing yards each of the past two years. He increased his 115.7 yards per game from 2023 to 138.3 last season, while maintaining his 5.9 yards per rush.

Hampton also increased his receiving production each year. He posted a career-best 9.8 yards per catch in his final season at Carolina, racking up a 38-372-2 receiving line en route to 2,033 total scrimmage yards.

Usage Numbers Prove Workhorse Potential

Hampton dominated backfield usage over his two starting seasons at UNC. His 253 carries in 2023 led No. 2 RB British Brooks by 178.

Hampton then climbed from 19.5 carries per game that season to 23.4 per game in 2024. His nearest RB teammate tallied just 67 carries across 13 games (one more than Hampton played). And Hampton’s efficiency came despite Carolina losing QB Drake Maye to the NFL.

Hampton’s Elusiveness Sets Him Apart

Among 161 RBs with 100+ carries last season, Hampton ranked 12th in yards after contact per carry (4.35). That marked a bump from his 4.22 YAC per carry in 2023. 

Factor in the matching numbers in total yards per carry, and that means Hampton was getting less help at the start of runs in 2024.

Hampton ranked 15th among FBS runners in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. Only five RBs forced more missed tackles.

Testing Confirms Him as Elite Prospect

Hampton checked in at 6’0 and 220 pounds at the Combine. His 4.46-second 40 time at that size generated a 91st-percentile speed score among RBs. PlayerProfiler lists Jonathan Taylor as the best comparable player.

Hampton added an 85th-percentile vertical and 96th-percentile broad jump, flashing his explosiveness.

2025 Expectations

Harbaugh All-In on Hampton’s Talent and Character

HC Jim Harbaugh raved about every single aspect of Hampton after his team added the RB with the 22nd pick of Round 1.

He talked up the incoming rookie’s running style, receiving ability, pass protection, football IQ – even said he got ringing endorsements before the draft on how good a person Hampton is. The coach said he was “shocked” the RB made it to them in Round 1.

That selection came a little more than a month after the Chargers signed RB Najee Harris.

The former Steeler brings plenty of name value and NFL production. But Harris also managed just a one-year, $5.25 million contract at the start of free agency, ahead of his age-27 season.

Harris has averaged just 3.9 yards per rush through four seasons and had seen both his carries per game and receptions per game decline for two straight years before 2024. (Jaylen Warren’s early injuries helped both numbers rebound.)

Don’t be surprised if Hampton opens the year splitting worth with Harris to some degree. But the new guy is the bigger talent, in all facets.

Chargers Offense Looks Primed for Progress in Year 2

The Chargers finished 12th in total offensive DVOA in the first season under Harbaugh, despite a lackluster backfield. The team landed just 21st in rushing DVOA; eighth in passing DVOA.

The passing game should remain good, thanks primarily to Justin Herbert. Ladd McConkey returns off a stellar rookie season. Quentin Johnston improved significantly over a bad rookie campaign. And the Chargers drafted WR Tre Harris in Round 2.

But what about the run game? The problem goes beyond last year’s limited backfield.

The O-line played below average in 2024 … but it also marked improvement.

The Chargers ranked just 23rd in adjusted line yards in 2024. But that beat rankings of 30th in 2023 and 26th in 2022. And the team climbed from 32nd in PFF run-blocking grade in both 2022 and 2023 to 21st last season.

L.A. looked to upgrade further by adding G Mekhi Becton in free agency. Becton has rated better as a run blocker than a pass blocker so far in his career.

History, Offseason Moves Suggest Chargers Want to Run More

Greg Roman has spent 11 seasons as an NFL OC, including the five he has worked under Harbaugh. Those 11 seasons have produced a 49.9% run rate. Last year’s 45.5% run rate marked the second-lowest in that group, trailing only the 2021 Ravens, who lost their top three RBs to injuries before the season and Lamar Jackson for the final five games.

Harbaugh adds a run-heavy college background, including a pair of Stanford teams with QB Andrew Luck and two years of first-round QB J.J. McCarthy starting for him at Michigan.

Harbaugh and Roman present rushing pedigrees. And that staff has spent its first-round picks so far on RT Joe Alt and Hampton.

It’s worth noting that the Chargers operated at the second-highest neutral pass rate in the league from Week 6 on (after their bye) last season. That span followed Herbert dealing with early foot and ankle injuries. It also included 10 combined missed games between Dobbins and Edwards.

Najee Harris

Bottom Line: More Likely a Handcuff Than Headliner

Harris looks well set up to produce … if Omarion Hampton goes down. We’ll see how much work the veteran can claim early in the year. But expect the rookie to lead this backfield and leave Harris more handcuff than standalone fantasy play.

2024 Summary

Another Meh Season for Limited Player

Harris produced a near-exact match to his 2023 fantasy production last season. He averaged 11.0 half-PPR points per game, compared with 10.8 the year before.

He ranked 20th among RBs in total half-PPR points; 27th in points per game.

Harris cracked the top 12 three times, with a high point of RB3 in Week 12 and the final outing not coming until Week 18. He also ranked 30th or lower among half-PPR backs seven times.

Harris’ Usage Ticks Up but Production Lags

Harris actually saw his carries per game and receptions per game rebound some in his final Pittsburgh season:

• From 15.0 carries in 2023 to 15.5
• 1.7 receptions to 2.1

Each rate still fell short of his first two seasons, despite the assistance of Jaylen Warren dealing with multiple injuries – especially early. But Harris did rank 11th in the league in carries per game – a mere 20th in rushing yards per game, however.

Harris’ Rushing Metrics Fail to Impress

Harris’ rushing efficiency lined up with his previous seasons. He ranked just 32nd in yards after contact per attempt among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, according to Pro Football Focus. 

He checked a more solid 19th in avoided tackles per attempt. Harris also landed 16th in elusive rating – but just 30th in rush yards over expected per attempt.

Run-Heavy Steelers Helped His Numbers

Harris reclaimed some rushing and receiving from Warren vs. their 2023 shares, aided by Warren’s aforementioned injuries. His Steelers also produced the league’s fourth-most running plays and the fifth-lowest neutral pass rate.

Harris' Production Plummeted Ahead of 2024

Here’s how Harris ranked among half-PPR scorers before last season:

• 21st in total points in 2023; 29th in points per game
• 14th and 19th in 2022
• Fourth and ninth in 2021

Things trended the same way in other formats, as Harris ceded work to Warren.

2025 Expectations

Harris’ Durability Remains, But Opportunity Shrinks

Harris has always been a sturdy player, missing nary a game since he entered the league and ranking second in carries since 2021. He trails only Derrick Henry.

But Harris could manage only a one-year, $5.25 million contract in free agency ahead of his age-27 season. That followed a four-year span in which Warren siphoned work. And now he’ll share a backfield with a bigger talent.

We’ll have to watch through the summer to see just how Chargers coaches want to divvy work between their top two RBs – both of whom they clearly view more highly than last year’s options (otherwise J.K. Dobbins would be back).

Omarion Hampton’s talent, college workloads, and first-round draft capital make him the easy bet to lead this backfield in fantasy scoring, though.

Enhanced O-Line Could Boost Run Game

The Chargers have worked to improve the offensive line since HC Jim Harbaugh took over last year. They drafted RT Joe Alt in 2024’s first round and signed G Mekhi Becton in free agency this offseason.

The team climbed from 30th in adjusted line yards in 2023 to 23rd last season, and from 32nd in PFF run-blocking grade each of the previous two years to 21st in 2024.

So even though the blocking rated below average last season, it appears to be trending up.

Expect Rushing Emphasis Despite Last Year’s Passing Spike

We’ve seen 11 NFL seasons of Greg Roman as an OC, five of those under Harbaugh. That sample has delivered a 49.5% run rate overall, with seven seasons of 50% rushing or more.

Last year’s Chargers swung the other way, producing the league’s second-highest neutral passing rate from Week 6 on – after the bye and early-season foot/ankle issues for QB Justin Herbert.

We’ll see exactly how the run-pass split works out this year. But history – and the Hampton pick – say you should bet on plenty of rushing volume.

Ladd McConkey

Bottom Line: Draft Cost May Outpace McConkey’s Production

There shouldn’t be much concern for McConkey as a player or his role in 2025. But his ADP has hovered inside the top 12 at the position throughout drafting season. That puts him above our WR14 PPR ranking, and small differences matter more the earlier you look in a draft. That price tag adds downside risk.

2024 Summary

McConkey’s Second-Half Surge Propels Fantasy Production

McConkey finished his rookie season:

• 13th among WRs in total PPR points
• 19th in PPR points per game
• 12th in total half-PPR points
• 18th in half-PPR points per game
• 10th in total non-PPR points
• 20th in non-PPR points per game

Through the season’s first six games, he cracked the top 30 WRs only twice, topping out at WR18 in Week 4. McConkey finished 44th or lower three times within that span.

Week 8 found him second among all WRs in fantasy points. From that point on, McConkey finished eight of 10 weeks among the top 24 fantasy WRs. That included three top-9 finishes and a WR16 week.

Versatility Plus Volume Boost Support Stat Spike

McConkey ranked 25th among all WRs in target share for the season (adjusted for games missed).

That aforementioned stretch from Week 8 on? Exactly the same as his full-season share: 22.9%.

What changed? The Chargers’ passing volume. Justin Herbert opened the year with just 22.8 attempts per game across the first four contests. From Week 6 on (after the bye), that jumped to 31.8 per game – 30.9 for the specific span of Week 8 on.

McConkey spent all year running primarily from the slot. According to Pro Football Focus, he spent 69.3% of his pass snaps there, with no single game dipping below 57.9%.

Not ‘Only’ a Slot Guy

That McConkey’s slot rate didn’t sit even higher might be a good sign. He led Chargers WRs in total snaps for the year, playing 73% of all offensive snaps for the regular season.

That included four games with snap shares larger than 80%, and then the rookie played a season-high 89.3% of the snaps in the playoff loss at Houston.

We’ll get more into why that matters in the 2025 section below.

McConkey's Efficiency Points to Sustainable Value

McConkey is one of six rookie WRs over the past five seasons to average 2.30 or more yards per route on 50+ targets. Classmate Brian Thomas Jr. joined him. The other four:

• Puka Nacua
• Justin Jefferson
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Chris Olave

All four averaged more PPR points per game in their second seasons than they did as rookies.

McConkey thrived on catch efficiency. He caught 73.2% of his targets, ranking 14th among 105 WRs who drew 40+ targets. 

His 14.0 yards per catch were more than you’ll typically see from a slot WR but lined up with McConkey’s 14.2 yards per catch for his college career. His 9.9-yard aDOT actually came in shorter than his final two college campaigns, but McConkey spent less than 25% of his pass snaps in the slot each of those years. He ranked just seventh among Chargers in 2024 aDOT.

McConkey’s 5.2 yards after catch per reception – according to PFF – ranked 31st among WRs.

He also checked in:

• 20th at the position in TD share, trailing Quentin Johnston among Chargers
• 30th in targets per route, slightly ahead of Johnston
• 36th in air-yards share – ahead of Johnston, despite a shorter aDOT

Chargers Make Shocking Post-Bye Shift

Remember that bit above about the Chargers increasing passing volume during the season? The change was pretty drastic.

Through four weeks (before the bye), L.A. sported a 40.4% pass rate in neutral situations, and a -8.3% pass rate vs. expectation – both second-lowest in the league.

From Week 5 on, that jumped to 60.7% neutral pass rate – second only to the Bengals – and 4.0% pass rate over expectation (seventh-highest).

That swing to pass-heaviness was particularly noteworthy for HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, both of whom arrived with lengthy run-heavy backgrounds – including their four shared NFL seasons in San Francisco.

McConkey’s Durability Looks Solid Despite Injury History

McConkey missed just one game of his rookie season. A right knee sprain seemed like the primary issue, having knocked him out of the previous week’s contest.

But McConkey also carried an AC joint (shoulder) sprain into that week – an injury he managed for at least a few games.

His final college season proved a little rougher. McConkey lost four games to a back injury and another to an ankle sprain in 2023. He dealt with turf toe and knee tendinitis the year before but missed only half a game (SEC championship).

2025 Expectations

McConkey Remains WR1, But Rookie Could Cut In

McConkey obviously enters his second season as the best bet to lead the Chargers in targets after doing so as a rookie. And the breakdown between slot and outside should look similar to last year.

The Chargers shed Josh Palmer while adding Mike Williams and rookie Tre Harris, both outside WRs.

Harris stands as easily the most interesting addition. How quickly he can get acclimated – and just how much he shows out in summer – will probably present the biggest challenge to McConkey’s 2025 target share. The scheme, however, could present a bigger volume challenge. (More on that in a minute.)

McConkey's QB Strengthens His Outlook

McConkey remains blessed with a good QB. Herbert dealt with foot and ankle injuries at the start of last season and struggled through the first month. After that, though, he delivered some of the most efficient play of his five-year career.

The third WR will most likely be Johnston, who watched McConkey pass him as a rookie and remained a modest performer despite big improvements over his rookie year.

The TE duo of Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin isn’t good enough to siphon work from the WRs.

Will the Chargers Revert to a Run-Heavy Attack?

This area presents arguably the biggest question for McConkey in 2025. Did the Chargers go pass-heavy after the Week 5 bye to take advantage of their quality QB once he got healthy? Or did they just not want to lean on a backfield that wasn’t very good – and dealt with injuries to the top two RBs?

The run-favoring histories of Harbaugh and Roman suggest we shouldn’t bet on L.A. again ranking near the top of the league in pass rate. Drafting RB Omarion Hampton in Round 1 – especially after signing Najee Harris in free agency – backs that up.

But how much will things swing back toward the run? We can’t know that until the season starts. Any decline, though, will challenge McConkey’s target total – and the related stats.

McConkey’s Yardage and TD Profile Looks Sustainable

Since the league grew to 32 teams in 2002, we’ve had 85 instances of a WR posting a catch rate of 70% or better on 100+ targets …

• 24 WRs did so two or more times.
• There have been 16 cases of a player doing so in back-to-back seasons.
• Last year’s eight instances obviously haven’t had a chance to give us follow-up feedback.
• The list is littered with slot WRs.

McConkey obviously won’t have an easy time matching that efficiency. But he has the QB to support, plays a position that helps his chances, and can point to plenty of precedent.

Similarly, nothing in McConkey’s yardage or TD-scoring profiles looks unrepeatable. And the Chargers didn’t benefit on whole from special TD luck. The team ranked 13th in TD passes, 16th in total TDs, and 12th in passing-TD rate.

Quentin Johnston

Bottom Line: Rookie WR Threatens Johnston’s Spot as No. 2 WR

Johnston posted a mildly encouraging second season after a crappy debut. There’s room for him to maintain a No. 2 role, but also a dangerous challenger in rookie WR Tre Harris. That plus a potentially low-volume pass offense make Johnston unattractive as a fantasy target.

2024 Summary

Johnston’s Fantasy Value Inflated by TDs

Johnston’s 55-711-8 receiving line in his second season still wasn’t terrific. He tied for 62nd in the league in catches and ranked 48th in yards.

He checked in 43rd in PPR points per game, 42nd in half-PPR, and 40th in non-PPR.

Johnston basically only helped fantasy teams when he reached the end zone. He cracked the top 30 just six times, five of which came among the seven games in which he scored at least 1 TD.

Johnston’s high point came in a 13-catch, 186-yard Week 18 contest against the Raiders. He finished second among PPR wideouts even without a TD. The two other weeks in which he found the end zone produced PPR finishes of just WR33 and WR38.

Johnston averaged 3.7 receptions per game and reached 4 catches in six of 15 outings.

Johnston Improves, But New Guy's Even Better

Johnston’s snap share increased vs. his rookie season – from 64.6% to 70.2% (for games played) – but he watched rookie WR Ladd McConkey jump ahead to lead Chargers WRs in playing time.

He climbed to 40th among WRs in target share vs. 79th in 2023, nearly doubling that number from 10.6% to 19.8%. (McConkey beat him, though.)

Johnston remained almost solely an outside WR, spending 88.1% of his pass snaps there, according to Pro Football Focus.

Johnston’s Efficiency Improved; Was It Enough?

Johnston nearly doubled his yards per route in 2024, from an ugly 0.88 his rookie season to 1.63, according to PFF. But that still tied him for just 50th among 105 WRs with 40+ targets.

He also trailed McConkey in yards per catch, despite a deeper aDOT; yards per target (10.3 to 7.8); catch rate (73.2% to 60.4%); and receiving success rate (57.1% to 50.5%).

Johnston did lead the team in TD catches and ranked 11th among all WRs in TD share.

Johnston's Usage Fails to Match His Skills

Just like in his first season, Johnston spent nearly 90% of his pass snaps on the outside in 2024. However, he went from splitting that time nearly evenly between left (354 snaps) and right (308) in his rookie season to lining up to the left on 69.8% of his outside-WR snaps last year.

Although he hit the league with a body seemingly designed for such a role – 6’3, 215 pounds – Johnston didn’t play his best college ball as that type of guy. He was much better as a run-after-catch player than contested-catch artist.

Harbaugh-Roman Era Brings Fewer Passes to L.A.

Last year marked the first under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. It also found the Chargers suddenly without WRs Keenan Allen (traded) and Mike Williams (released).

The Chargers ranked 28th in the league in pass attempts after finishing the previous year third, under then-OC Kellen Moore.

Although last year’s Chargers passed more often as the year went on, the histories for Harbaugh and Roman plus last year’s final results point to a preference for lower passing volume.

Minor Injury History ... But Worth Noting

Johnston lost two games to an ankle sprain in the middle of last season but sports no worrisome injury history. It’s worth noting that he hurt the same right ankle in 2022 at TCU (plus at least one aggravation), but we haven’t seen a sign that’s a weak spot for him overall.

2025 Expectations

Harris' Arrival Could Shove Johnston Aside

Johnston will have to compete for a role this season.

The Chargers drafted Tre Harris in Round 2, after a strong couple of seasons at Ole Miss. Harris stands similar in size to Johnston and played more like a traditional “X” receiver in college. That included a 61.5% contested-catch rate his final season, which beat Johnston’s career rate by 20.8 percentage points (40.7%).

The team also brought back Mike Williams, though only on a one-year, $3 million contract. Now 31, Williams will need to prove he can be a factor after washing out with both the Jets and Steelers in 2024.

That trio will compete for the Nos. 2 and 3 roles in an offense that ranked just 22nd in the league in rate of 3-WR sets last season.

Battle for the ‘X’?

If it’s Johnston vs. Harris for the “X” position, then Johnston could be in trouble because of his struggles in contested situations.

Harris’ aforementioned 2024 rate came on just 13 contested targets, thanks to a groin injury ending his season early. His career contested catch rate came in at just 48.4%. But that still beat Johnston’s college rate. And his rate has declined every season since his first year at TCU.

Last year – his first as that “X” – Johnston ranked:

• 41st among WRs in total targets
• T-25th in contested targets
• 26th in rate of targets that were contested
• 91st in contested catch rate (among 105 WRs with 40+ total targets)

That might have helped motivate the Chargers to draft Harris.

QB Helps, But Beware of Upgrades Around Q.J.

QB Justin Herbert helps his WRs’ efficiency. He has completed 66.5% of his passes through five years. He’s coming off a career-low INT rate and career-high yards per pass attempt. Herbert has also lost games to injury in just one of his five seasons.

Harris looks like a better upside bet than Johnston, who’s still a holdover from the previous coaching staff.

An upgraded backfield – Najee Harris via free agency; Omarion Hampton via Round 1 of the draft – also suggests plenty of rushing volume from a historically run-favoring pair of offensive coaches.

Harbaugh-Roman History Clouds Passing-Game Outlook

The Harbaugh-Roman factor weighs heavily on all the passing-game output. Their first Chargers team wound up passing at a higher rate than expected, especially after a hobbled start for Herbert.

From Week 5 on, the Chargers ranked second in the league in neutral pass rate, trailing only the Bengals. Their 4.0% pass rate over expected ranked seventh-highest.

Yet even Herbert’s 31.8 pass attempts per game over that elevated stretch project to just 540.6 over a full 17 games. That would have ranked just 22nd in the league last season.

Harbaugh and Roman each carry histories of much heavier run leanings. And the team renovated its backfield by dumping Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, signing Harris, and spending that first-rounder on Hampton.

Those don’t seem like the moves of a team planning to rank near the top of the league in passing rate.

Even if they do pass at a higher rate that the coaching histories portend, these Chargers will need to prove they can be average or better on the passing-volume front.

Johnston Needs to Continue Upward Trajectory

Johnston’s significant production improvements in 2024 might not have propelled him to stardom. But there’s certainly room for the 24-year-old (on Sept. 6) to continue improving and become a fixture in an ascending offense.

He’ll likely need to show evidence of further improvement throughout summer to fend off Harris.

Tre Harris

Bottom Line: Harris a WR5 Flier with High Reward Potential

Harris brings an impressive analytical profile from college and finds a team with open opportunity for the No. 2 WR slot. But there’s competition and volume questions. He’s an intriguing upside play if you can draft him as a WR5.

2024 Summary

Harris Posts Big Numbers Before Injury

A mid-October groin injury cut short Harris’ final college season. But his seven healthy games produced these numbers:

• 8.4 receptions per game
• 141 yards per game
• 0.86 TDs per game
• 33% of Ole Miss’ receptions
• 37.4% of the receiving yards
• 41.2% of receiving TDs

Outside Role Defines His Game

Harris worked almost exclusively outside through college, running 85% or more of his pass snaps from that position each of his four years. He spent 88% of his career snaps on the outside.

He didn’t run a wide variety of routes over his two Ole Miss seasons. Harris primarily lived on curls, slants, and “go” routes (straight down the field).

He’s likely to keep leaning heavily on such routes in the pros but might need some further development in that area if the Chargers want him to do more.

Efficiency Metrics Highlight Explosive Potential

Harris averaged 5.12 yards per route in 2024, which seems like a typo vs. others in the category. For context, no other WR invited to this year’s Combine surpassed 3.72.

Harris’ rate was the highest recorded by a Power 5 WR on 200+ routes since Pro Football Focus started tracking in 2015.

His 3.78 yards per team pass attempt also led all Combine WRs, while his 89.4 PFF receiving grade ranked second among that group.

Harris’ 100.8 yards per game across two seasons at Ole Miss made him just the second player in SEC history to average 100+ receiving yards per game for his career. 

Harris Thrived as Downfield Threat at Ole Miss

Harris likely benefited from playing with QB Jaxson Dart, a first-round pick by the Giants this year. Dart showed willingness to throw deep and into contested situations, both of which played to Harris’ strengths.

In his healthier 2023, Harris didn’t separate as much from fellow Ole Miss WRs Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins (a 2024 fourth-round pick by the 49ers) …

Harris showed out as a downfield receiver in both seasons with the Rebels. He was the nation’s only WR to earn a 99.9 PFF receiving grade on deep targets (20+ yards downfield) both years.

Harris caught 20 of 38 targets for 724 yards and 6 TDs on such plays over that span. You can find his full prospect profile here.

2025 Expectations

Harris vs. Johnston Shapes Up as Key Summer Battle

We should see open competition for roles alongside Ladd McConkey in 2025.

The primary slot man led Chargers receivers in playing time as a rookie and figures to remain the target leader. Behind him, though, Quentin Johnston and a 31-year-old Mike Williams stand as primary competition.

Johnston improved significantly in many categories as an NFL sophomore. But he remained a limited performer. A lot of the significance of his improvement relied on how bad his first season was.

Johnston ran as the team’s primary “X” receiver in 2024, though – a role that fits Harris’ skill set nicely. So that’s who Harris will likely need to outperform to grow his initial snap share.

Williams arrived on just a one-year, $3 million contract after signing with the Jets for $10 million last offseason. He’ll need to prove he’s still relevant after 2024 found the Jets and Steelers quitting on him. The team’s other WRs – and TEs – look more like roster filler than role challengers.

QB's a Plus if Harris Earns Role

QB Justin Herbert looks like arguably the biggest positive for any Chargers pass-catcher. He has played well amid changing situations through his first five NFL seasons. That has included 66.5% career completions.

Herbert’s also coming off career highs in yards per pass attempt, PFF passing grade, and NFL passer rating.

Coaches' Run-Heavy Past Could Shape 2025

Here’s the biggest question mark for the entire Chargers outlook.

HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman each arrived in 2024 with run-heavy backgrounds, including their four shared seasons piloting the 49ers in the same roles.

You could say personnel contributed there, but Harbaugh and Roman have also piloted run-favoring offenses individually at other stops. The strongest example of Harbaugh’s run lean might be his two years with Andrew Luck at Stanford.

Harbaugh’s two Luck teams went:

• 41.2 rush attempts per game vs. 24.1 passes in 2009
• 41.2 rushes vs. 29.2 passes in 2010

Then Harbaugh left for the Niners, and Luck’s final season (under HC David Shaw) found the team go:

• 39.8 rushes per game
• 32.1 passes per game

… with the same lead back (Stepfan Taylor) as 2010.

Harbaugh produced similar rates with first-round QB J.J. McCarthy at Michigan.

What About Now?

Of course, college football remains much different from the pros. And even Harbaugh’s run leans in the NFL haven’t proved as drastic as those college numbers. But his four years as San Francisco’s HC produced an exact 50-50 run-pass split. And Greg Roman’s other six years as an NFL OC produced an overall 50.5% run rate vs. 49.5% pass.

Herbert’s easily the best pro passer Harbaugh has coached and at least arguably the best for Roman (vs. Lamar Jackson). So we should expect some more passing. But how much?

Last year’s Chargers ranked second in the league in neutral-situation pass rate after their Week 5 bye. But they followed that by signing Najee Harris in free agency and drafting Omarion Hampton in Round 1.

Harris’ Contested-Catch Growth Could Earn Him Early Snaps

Harris’ work in contested situations could be key to him winning early playing time. He struggled in that area in his first Ole Miss season (35.7% contested catch rate in 2023, according to PFF). 

But Harris improved in 2024 – on limited opportunities (13 vs. 28 in 2023) – catching 61.5% of his contested chances. That marked the second time he cracked 60% in his four seasons.

Harris caught 48.4% of contested targets for his college career. Johnston went 40.7% of his three-year college run, with that number getting worse each year. And his rate has dipped further in each pro season:

• 31.8% in 2023
• 30.4% last year

In his first season as the primary “X” receiver under Harbaugh and Roman, Johnston ranked:

• 41st among WRs in total targets (according to PFF)
• Tied for 25th in contested targets
• 26th in rate of targets that were contested
• 91st in contested catch rate (among 105 WRs who drew 40+ targets)

If Harris shows this summer that his 2024 play in contested situations was no fluke, that could propel him ahead of Johnston.

Mike Williams

Bottom Line: Ignore Williams Until He Proves You Shouldn't

Williams’ guaranteed salary probably puts him on the regular-season roster. But he’ll need to prove this summer that he’s worth any draft attention before you should seriously consider him.

2024 Summary

The Chargers released Williams in March 2024, shortly after HC Jim Harbaugh arrived. Williams signed with the Jets six days later for $10 million on a one-year deal, with $8.3 million of that guaranteed.

He would see just 21 targets across nine games with the Jets before getting traded to Pittsburgh for a fifth-round pick. Williams drew just 13 targets over another nine games, trailing Calvin Austin (33) and Van Jefferson (19) over that span.

Williams, of course, had better times with the Chargers before that, including 4.9 receptions per game across his final three (previous) seasons with the team. Those came in a pass-happier offense, though. And Williams’ 2023 ended with a Week 3 tear of his left ACL.

2025 Expectations

Williams signed just a one-year, $3 million deal (all guaranteed) to return this March. That does, at least, give him the second-largest cap number among Chargers WRs, trailing only Quentin Johnston (Year 3 of Johnston’s rookie deal).

Williams will need to win a spot among the top three, though, for a team that drafted Ladd McConkey in Round 2 last year and Tre Harris in Round 2 this year. They join Johnston as the likely top three at the position for 2025.

At his best, Williams has been the kind of player – downfield threat, contested-catch winner – that would fit the “X” receiver role well under Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. But we’ll need to see that Williams can get back anywhere close to that player. And he’ll need to beat out Harris and Johnston (the latter of whom stunk at contested catches in the role last season).

Will Dissly

Bottom Line: Limited TEs Could Cannibalize Each Other

There wasn’t much to like about Dissly’s fantasy profile before the team signed Tyler Conklin. Even if that addition doesn’t change anything, you can do better than Dissly.

2024 Summary: Dissly’s Volume Spikes, But Fantasy Impact Remains Limited

Dissly nearly doubled his previous high for targets in his first season with the Chargers. He still ranked just 22nd among TEs in targets, though, tied for 18th in receptions, 21st in receiving yards, tied for 24th in TD catches, and 30th in half-PPR points per game.

Dissly played just 56.8% of the offensive snaps across his 15 games, though the Chargers clearly valued his receiving more than Seattle did over the TE’s first six years. Dissly ran a route on a career-high 86.5% of his pass snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. He set career highs in total slot snaps (32.1% of his total pass snaps) and snaps out wide (15.9%).

But Dissly also registered a career-low 9.6 yards per catch on a shallow 4.8-yard aDOT. His 78.1% catch rate was strong but actually checked in short of his career mark (80.5%).

2025 Expectations

The Chargers signed TE Tyler Conklin to a one-year, $3 million contract – with nearly all of that guaranteed. That lands Conklin well short of Dissly’s $5.875 million 2025 cap number. But it figures to challenge his receiving role.

Stone Smartt ranked second among Chargers TEs last year with just 19 targets, less than a third of Dissly’s total. Conklin caught 51+ passes each of the past four years and has run a route on more than 85% of his pass snaps each of the past three years.

There’s a chance the team signed him to take a significant chunk of the TE targets while freeing Dissly up to block more. It’s also possible the team wants two solid TEs to help support a higher rushing rate than last year.

Either way, Conklin’s arrival makes the unexciting Dissly even less attractive as a fantasy option.