Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Can Healthy WRs Make Chiefs Offense a Fantasy Goldmine?

Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Patrick Mahomes

Bottom Line: Don't Ignore Mahomes

Mahomes remains good. The Chiefs remain good. But he needs some help at WR. That help should be on hand, if it can stay healthy. You’ll likely need to pay a top-6 QB price to bet on a Mahomes rebound, though. He’ll make more sense in 6-point passing TD leagues.

2024 Summary

Is Mahomes Losing His Fantasy Edge?

Mahomes just finished posting his fewest fantasy points in seven years as an NFL starter. That came a year after his second-fewest points per game.

He checked in just 11th among QBs in total points and points per game. That followed PPG finishes of:

• 10th in 2023
• 3rd in 2022
• 4th in 2021
• 2nd in 2020
• 6th in 2019
• 1st in 2018

Mahomes finished just five of 16 weeks among the top 12 fantasy QBs. Four of those found him seventh or higher, but two of those came in the final two weeks of most fantasy seasons – following consecutive finishes of QB20, QB17, and QB16.

So 1-QB leaguers probably weren’t starting Mahomes for those two contests – or shouldn’t have been – if they even made it that far.

Mahomes' Efficiency Slips

Mahomes’ career low in passing yards came on a career-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt and career-low 10.0 yards per completion.

He also notched a career-low TD rate, falling just short of the previous career low he set in 2023.

Mahomes’ advanced metrics fell more in line with previous seasons. Though the past two seasons have produced the two shortest aDOTs of his career.

WR Injuries Didn't Help

The Chiefs tried to address a deteriorating WR corps ahead of last season, signing Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy in Round 1. 

But Brown hurt his shoulder before the start of the season and made it back for just scant use at the end of the year.

Worthy produced but was unable to convert his elite speed into big yardage. He averaged just 10.8 yards per catch despite a 9.2-yard aDOT. Blame a mix of short-range completions and long-range misses.

Rashee Rice’s highly anticipated second year ended with a knee injury in Week 4.

Travis Kelce remained healthy and central to the offense but posted a career-low 8.5 yards per catch in his age-35 season.

2025 Expectations

Offense Looks a Lot Like Last Year

The Chiefs didn’t make a lot of offensive changes, but they didn’t need to.

They expect Rice to be all the way back from his knee injury. They re-signed Brown on another one-year deal. They still have JuJu Smith-Schuster around to take up space, Skyy Moore to carry his teammates’ pads, and fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals to provide some upside depth.

They did sign Jaylon Moore for $15 million a year to take over at LT after Mahomes took the highest sack rate of his career.

Healthy WRs Would Deliver a Boost

The speedy WR corps needs to stay healthy to rebound Mahomes’ efficiency and boost his fantasy upside.

Over four seasons as starter with Tyreek Hill around, Mahomes delivered the league’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (8.1). Since Hill left ahead of 2022, he’s down to 20th (7.3).

Mahomes’ TDs should be due for some positive regression. His 49 pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line last year – according to Pro Football Reference – lined up with most of his previous seasons. Mahomes has attempted 46-50 throws in that range in five of his seven starting seasons.

Last year found him throwing three fewer TD passes from that range than his previous low.

Isiah Pacheco

Bottom Line: Pacheco Could Be a Steal

Pacheco needs to prove he’s back to pre-injury form, but there’s nothing worrisome behind him on the depth chart. If he’s healthy, the Chiefs look ready to make him the backfield leader in another potentially potent offense. He’s a nice draft value.

2024 Summary

What Happened?

Pacheco opened last season as K.C.’s workhorse but broke his right fibula in Week 2. That forced him to miss seven games, and he probably shouldn’t have returned when he did.

“He was forcing that thing coming back [when he did],” HC Andy Reid told ESPN’s Adam Teicher in early April. “Most guys probably wouldn’t have come back. If you know him for a minute, you know he wasn’t going to be held back. I think we’ll get a better player this year.”

Pacheco did return in Week 13 but averaged just 3.6 yards per rush and 5.0 per reception (on only 5 catches) across five appearances. He then all but disappeared during the playoffs: 16 total touches over three contests.

But the Year Before Went Much Better

Pacheco’s season-opening usage followed how his usage trended late in 2023. He opened the year as the lead ball carrier but added volume there and – especially – in the passing game by mid-season.

Over his final nine contests of 2023, Pacheco averaged 18.9 opportunities – even while navigating a December shoulder injury and a concussion. Pacheco then garnered 24+ touches in three of the four playoff contests.

That all marked a big rise in usage vs. his rookie season.

Chiefs Believed in Pacheco Then

The Chiefs entered 2024 with just Samaje Perine and Carson Steele behind Pacheco on the depth chart, emphasizing the plan to ride the incumbent in his third year.

They didn’t add Kareem Hunt until after Pacheco had gone down, and Hunt took the backfield lead in Week 4. He wound up RB27 in PPR points per game, with just 3.6 yards per rush but a solid 7.7 yards per catch on 1.8 receptions per game.

2025 Expectations

Chiefs Still Believe in Pacheco Now?

The Chiefs’ 2025 backfield progression suggests they want better insurance … but also plan to still have Pacheco leading.

Kansas City signed Elijah Mitchell to a one-year deal early in free agency. Mitchell, of course, flashed as a 2021 rookie for the 49ers. But then he spent the past three years making sure every fantasy manager hates him. Mitchell’s still just 26 but coming off a full season lost to a hamstring injury.

He signed for just $2.5 million, though more than half of that’s guaranteed.

Hunt signed shortly thereafter for just $1.5 million, with less than a million guaranteed. And then the Chiefs drafted SMU’s Brashard Smith in Round 7.

Smith brings intriguing talent – especially in the passing game, as a converted WR – but arriving via Round 7 means he’ll need to prove himself (like former seventh-rounder Pacheco did).

Playing with Patrick Mahomes? Yeah, Pretty Good

The primary factor making any Chiefs RB attractive is that he’s a Chiefs RB.

The team finished just 15th in scoring each of the past two years, but that followed six straight years of ranking sixth or higher – a span that predated Mahomes by a year. Just four of Andy Reid’s 12 seasons at the helm have found the Chiefs lower than ninth in scoring.

Patrick Mahomes remains pretty good at football, and he should find a more explosive receiving corps if guys can stay healthy.

Chiefs RBs have collectively ranked 15th or higher in PPR points in eight of Reid’s seasons, including six finishes of 11th or better.

Rashee Rice

Bottom Line: Rice Carries WR1 Upside

There’s some wait-and-see with this Chiefs WR corps that has yet to play together. But Rice has been terrific early and benefits from playing with Patrick Mahomes. His ADP carries risk, but Rice would be a scary player to avoid completely in drafts.

2024 Summary

Hope You Didn’t Blink

If you drafted Rice last season, then you got exactly what you were hoping to get … for three weeks.

Through three games, only Malik Nabers generated more fantasy points. Rice drew 31.5% of Chiefs targets and 35.0% of the team’s air yards over that span – even while running a route on just 76.9% of dropbacks (51st among WRs).

He was averaging 8 receptions, 96.0 yards, and 0.67 TDs per contest. But then a Week 4 LCL tear in his right knee ended the season.

Usage Followed Late-2023 Trend

Rice’s enhanced usage matched the rise of his rookie season. The second-round pick averaged just 4.6 targets, 3.6 catches, and 42.0 yards across his first 10 games, playing 46.9% of the offensive snaps.

From Week 12 on, those numbers jumped to:

• 77.6% playing time
• 9.3 targets per game
• 7.2 receptions
• 86.3 yards

And the four-game playoff run went similarly:

• 80.3% playing time
• 8.3 targets
• 6.5 receptions
• 65.5 yards

From Week 12 through the playoffs, Rice beat Travis Kelce in:

• Targets per game: 8.7 to 7.7
• Receptions per game: 6.9 to 6.1
• Yards per game: 78.0 to 69.8
• TDs: 4 to 3
• First downs: 38 to 36
• Even drop rate: 2.3% to 9.1%

2025 Expectations

Can Rice Stay Healthy and Not Suspended?

The first two questions with Rice are his health and his off-field situation.

Doctors cleared the 25-year-old to start running routes in early April. We’ll obviously have to watch him through the summer to make sure the knee is good, but Rice is expected to be ready.

Similarly, his legal issues remain a developing story. But it’s developing so slowly that Rice now seems unlikely to face league discipline for it during the 2025 season.

We’ll certainly keep watching that situation as well. But the market has already shifted to treating Rice as likely to avoid suspension.

Get Ready for More Competition

Assuming the health and off-field stuff are good, Rice will face more challengers for targets than he has previously.

He and Marquise Brown have yet to share the field for an NFL game. Xavier Worthy took the field for all three of Rice’s healthy outings last year but totaled just 11 targets across those contests.

The rookie went from tallying six receptions over those three games to catching six or more passes in five of his final six games – including the playoffs.

The offense will undoubtedly benefit from having all three wideouts in place, but Rice could easily find his target share dinged by the added talent.

Differing Roles Favor Rice’s Volume

Perhaps the best mark working in Rice’s favor is his specific role.

The Chiefs like to move their WRs among positions more than most offenses. That has meant Rice running only about half his pass routes from the slot so far, even as the team’s most frequent choice for that spot. But the average target depths reveal something about the player styles involved here.

Rice carries a 5.0-yard aDOT for his young career, according to Pro Football Focus. Worthy posted a 9.2-yard aDOT for his rookie season, despite most of his catches coming via shorter throws. And Brown’s career aDOT stands at 12.5, across stints with three teams.

Running shorter routes and spending more time in the middle of the field should help Rice’s chances of maintaining his target lead – especially with slot-adjacent TE Travis Kelce winding down at age 36.

Xavier Worthy

Bottom Line: Is Worthy Too Expensive?

Worthy posted a nice rookie season, and playing with Patrick Mahomes can only be a good thing. But it also ramps up a player’s draft cost. Beware of overpaying for the second-year WR, who faces increased target competition.

2024 Summary

Worthy Delivered on Limited Work

Worthy started his first NFL regular-season game and set unreasonable fantasy expectations by scoring on two of his three touches: a 21-yard run and a 35-yard reception.

Worthy would remain a low-volume target through the first month, but the action picked up after WR Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4.

From Week 5 through the playoffs, Worthy ranked 44th among WRs in target share (adjusted for games missed). He ranked 49th in yardage share and 31st in TD share.

The rookie checked in 32nd in PPR points per game over that span; 38th in expected fantasy points per game. He finished six weeks ranked higher than WR30 in PPR points, including consecutive finishes of WR16, WR11, and WR15 in weeks 15-17.

How Did Chiefs Deploy Worthy?

Worthy spent about 62% of his pass snaps out wide, according to Pro Football Focus, 36.3% in the slot. His mere 10.8 yards per catch belied a role that found him running deep plenty.

Worthy tied for 19th-most targets 20+ yards downfield, according to PFF, while tying for 24th in total targets. He tied for 26th in catches, though, snagging just seven of those 21 opportunities. Only three WRs – Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, and Keenan Allen – caught fewer passes on 21+ deep targets.

The K.C. rookie made just four other receptions in the range of 10-19 yards. That left 39 of his receptions in the “short” range (0-9 yards) and another 28 behind the line of scrimmage.

His 6.7 yards after catch per reception ranked 12th among 106 WRs with 40+ targets for the season. The aDOT tied for 81st among that group – with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and just short of John Metchie.

Teammate Injuries Didn't Hurt

Worthy’s playing time got a boost in Week 14. After he reached 70% in snap share just twice over the first 12 games, Worthy never dipped below 79.7% among the final seven – including the playoffs.

In addition to Rice going down early in the season, Worthy never played with a full version of Marquise Brown. The veteran suffered an August shoulder injury that didn’t allow him to return until Week 16. He totaled just 28 targets across five games from there through the playoffs.

K.C. also lacked the run game it expected to have entering the year. Isiah Pacheco broke a leg in Week 2 and returned late in the year at a dramatically limited version of himself. Kareem Hunt averaged just 3.6 yards per carry as the stand-in backfield leader.

2025 Expectations

How Big a Role Can He Find?

Worthy should find consistently strong playing time after opening his first season as a starter and finishing No. 2 on the team in targets.

He’ll face stiffer competition for those looks, though, as long as Rice and Brown hit the season healthy. (Really, it’ll get tougher even if just one of them does so.)

Worthy will need more connections on those deep balls to boost his fantasy scoring. Fortunately for him, last year marked Mahomes’ career low for deep-ball completion rate – on a career low for deep attempts (16 fewer than his previous low).

Check the annual completion rates:

• 2024: 29.6%
• 2023: 31.6%
• 2022: 44.3%
• 2021: 47.4%
• 2020: 32.1%
• 2019: 53.4%
• 2018: 45.3%
• Career: 41.0%

We’ll go ahead and bet this is an area the QB and new wideout need to work on – rather than something they can’t do together.

Chiefs WR History Holds Warning Sign

Mahomes is the biggest factor favoring any Chiefs pass-catcher, but it also has the potential to overrate his teammates in fantasy drafts.

In Mahomes’ seven seasons as starter, just two years have found the Chiefs place more than one WR among the top 40 in PPR points per game:

• 2018: Tyreek Hill at WR4, Sammy Watkins at WR37. Watkins played in just 10 games that year. And Mahomes threw 50 TD passes, still nine more than he has tossed in any other season.
• 2022: Mecole Hardman at WR33, JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR36. Hardman played in just eight games. Mahomes led the league in passing yards and TD passes that year.

This year’s Chiefs might present the best collection of WR talent Mahomes has had. And TE Travis Kelce is clearly near the end of his road. But that scoring history highlights how difficult it will be to support multiple high scorers at WR.

Marquise Brown

Bottom Line: Nowhere to Go But Up

Brown will likely need an injury to either Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy to become usable in lineup-setting fantasy leagues of 12 teams or fewer. We’ll see how big a role he can find in a suddenly crowded passing game. Brown’s more interesting as a later-round best ball target.

2024 Summary

Did You Even Play?

Brown sustained a right shoulder injury in the Chiefs’ first exhibition game. The team initially expected him to miss just “some” time, but September brought the revelation that his sternoclavicular injury would need surgery.

Brown didn’t see game action until Week 16. He played just 27% of the offensive snaps in that return, 40.3% the following week – and then 65% or more in each of the three playoff contests.

But Brown totaled just 14 receptions across those five outings and averaged only 10.1 yards per reception. He has averaged 4.4 receptions per game and 11.6 yards per catch for his career.

How’d You Fare Before 2024?

That ended a string of four straight seasons with at least 100 targets and 51 catches for Brown. He averaged 4.3 catches and 50.6 yards per game over his first five seasons.

Brown’s weakest year within that span came with the 2023 Cardinals, who missed QB Kyler Murray until Week 10. That meant just three full Murray-Brown games before the wideout played limited roles in weeks 13 and 15, and then missed the final three games.

Take out that 2023 campaign, and Brown’s career numbers improve to:

• 4.5 receptions per game
• 52.9 yards per game
• 61.8% catch rate (vs. 59.6% career)

Brown Brings Extensive Injury History

The 2024 shoulder injury wasn’t the start of Brown’s durability issues. Since entering the league, he has dealt with:

• A 2019 ankle sprain that cost him two games
• A 2020 knee sprain that nagged him but didn’t cost any games
• A 2021 hamstring injury that cost him a lot of camp time but didn’t affect his regular season
• A 2021 thigh bruise that cost him a game
• A 2022 fracture in his left foot that cost him five games (and probably limited his production after he returned)
• A pair of December 2023 heel injuries that limited his playing time before ending his season prematurely

Brown also had a Lisfranc injury to his left foot in college that required surgery to insert screws. He had those screws removed just after his rookie season.

The history of lower-body issues has undoubtedly played a role in Brown having to settle for one-year deals each of the past two offseasons.

2025 Expectations

Past Andy Reid WR Usage Makes Present Tough to Predict

The last time Kansas City had three WRs play at least 50% of the snaps came in 2021. Tyreek Hill was the only who to reach 60% playing time, and only Hill and Travis Kelce exceeded 83 targets.

The 2019 Chiefs had Sammy Watkins at 70.5%, Demarcus Robinson at 70%, and Hill at 53.6%, thanks primarily to four missed games.

Since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, only the 2021 Chiefs have seen three WRs reach 60 targets in a season:

• Hill 159
• Mecole Hardman 83
• Byron Pringle 60

This year’s top trio at WR is probably the best in at least the Mahomes Era. But target volume will be a challenge for Brown.

He does, at least, sport the deepest aDOT among that top three. That should help Brown’s scoring efficiency when he does get the ball.

Brown Faces Challenge in WR Mates

Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy join Brown to fill out that trio, and each brings more reason to believe in his target share than Brown does.

Brown got just $7 million on a one-year deal with K.C. this offseason, same as he got a year before (despite the league-wide salary-cap increase).

TE Travis Kelce heads into his age-36 season, which could push more targets toward the WRs. But he also garnered 35 more targets than anyone else on last year’s team.

Travis Kelce

Bottom Line: Lower Price Makes Kelce Attractive

If Kelce were still getting drafted at the top of the position, he’d be a risky fantasy proposition. But his TE6-7 ADP – around the 8-9 turn – makes Kelce a solid PPR option.

2024 Summary

Kelce's Production Tumbles

Kelce posted his fewest fantasy points last season since 2015, which was just his second year in the league. The main culprit was a career-low 3 TD catches. 

Kelce tied for just 10th among TEs in end-zone targets, according to Pro Football Focus. But his seven matched the number that tied him for fifth at the position in 2023. And it fell just two short of his 2022 total (which tied for second).

Kelce still managed a TE5 finish in total PPR points; TE7 in PPR points per game.

A mid-season hot streak boosted those numbers, with Kelce ranking among the top 5 TEs in five of six games from Week 4 through Week 10. He otherwise finished higher than 12th just once: a TE3 performance in Week 17.

His Usage Remained Just Fine, Though

Kelce led all Chiefs in targets for the third straight season in 2024. His alignment changed a bit, though.

Kelce spent 42% of his pass snaps in the slot, a slight decline vs. the previous three seasons. He spent another 23% out wide. That combo of 65% marked a slightly larger decrease:

• 2023: 73%
• 2022: 73.3%
• 2021: 71.8%

Kelce saw a similar breakdown to his usage before that span. And No. 2 TE Noah Gray actually spent less time in those two spots than he had in 2023.

So the “change” for Kelce might not matter. Or maybe Kelce will see more time at an inline spot as he gets older. Or maybe the Chiefs just needed him closer to the ball to help out a struggling O-line more than over the previous three years.

It’s a difference worth noting but not enough to alter his 2025 outlook.

What Killed Kelce's Numbers?

His efficiency decline, on the other hand, commands some attention.

Kelce averaged a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. That marked a 2.1-yard fall from his previous low, set the season before. And that low marked a 1.6-yard fall from the season before.

Kelce’s average target depth remained in line with previous seasons. But his yards after catch per reception fell off, no matter whose numbers you go by. Pro Football Focus had Kelce at 3.9, down from 5.0 the year before and higher rates each of the three years before that.

His 1.49 yards per route also set a career low and tied for just 16th among 36 TEs who drew 40+ targets.

Rough Year (Relatively) for the Offense

The Chiefs’ passing game declined overall for the second straight season. Patrick Mahomes’ 245.5 yards per game fell 15.9 short of the low he set in 2023.

Things might have gone better if the team hadn’t lost WR Marquise Brown to a shoulder injury in early August and then WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury in Week 4.

2025 Expectations

Kelce's Not Going Anywhere

Kelce’s overall involvement remained strong. He actually played a larger percentage of the snaps than in any of the previous three seasons.

Barring word from coaches – or other worthwhile reports – this summer, there’s no reason to expect a meaningful change in Kelce’s role for 2025.

WRs Set to Challenge Target Share?

Noah Gray signed a three-year, $18 million extension at the beginning of last season, and he increased his snap share by 5.4 percentage points over 2023. But that still marked just a 57.8% total share and didn’t appear to come at Kelce’s expense.

The WR corps should be much better this year, assuming Rice and Brown both prove to be healthy and stay that way.

They and Worthy would combine to present (arguably?) the biggest target-share challenge of Kelce’s career.

All Hail Skinny Kelce?

Kecle’s QB and offensive system remain the same – and proven positives. So the biggest change from 2024 to this season might be a personal one.

The veteran revealed in May that he had shed 25 pounds since the end of the season.

“I think I let my guys down in a lot more moments than I helped them, especially if you look at my track record and how I’ve been in years past,” he said on his podcast. “I’ve got a bad taste in my mouth on how I ended the year.”

Should we expect a total reset on Kelce’s efficiency (such as yards per catch) at the lighter weight? Nah. He turns 36 on Oct. 5. He’s clearly at the end of his career.

But don’t be surprised if there’s some rebound vs. 2024. Having speedy WRs at both outside spots to help clear space in the middle of the field just might help.