Justin Herbert Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

• Herbert finished 13th in total fantasy points; 16th in fantasy points per game.
• He finished five weeks inside the top 12 – all from Week 8 on.
  • That included no finishes higher than sixth, though he reached that level twice.
• Herbert finished three other weeks as the QB13.

Efficiency Metrics

Herbert powered through a rough first five weeks to close the year with his highest Pro Football Focus grades to date for passing and total offense.

He posted a career-long 9.2-yard average depth of target, which helped support career highs in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Herbert also delivered a career-best QB rating (101.7).

A career-low in pass attempts per game, however, led to a career low in passing yards per game. That marked the third straight season in which Herbert’s yards per game declined.

Offensive Context

Last year marked the first season with Jim Harbaugh as HC and Greg Roman as OC. Each came from run-heavy backgrounds, and 2024 started that way for the Chargers.

Through four weeks (before the bye), L.A. sported a 40.4% pass rate in neutral situations, and a -8.3% pass rate vs. expectation – both second-lowest in the league.

From Week 5 on, that jumped to 60.7% neutral pass rate – second only to the Bengals – and 4.0% pass rate over expectation (seventh-highest).

Herbert jumped from 22.8 pass attempts and a paltry 144.5 yards per game over the first four contests – which featured some injury questions we’ll get to in a minute – to 31.8 and 253.2 the rest of the way.

Those 253.2 yards per game would have marked an increase vs. his 2023 average but still ranked just fourth among his five NFL seasons.

Historical Production & Trends

Herbert operated more pass-heavy offenses over his first three seasons. From 2020-22, he attempted the second-most passes in the league, trailing only Tom Brady.

Herbert also ranked third in passing yards per game over that span – trailing Patrick Mahomes and Brady – despite a modest 7.2 yards per attempt and No. 16 ranking in passing success rate.

Last year’s full-season 54.5% pass rate finished higher than any of Harbaugh’s four teams as HC of San Francisco. Three of those squads finished short of 50% pass for the year.

Similarly, Roman’s four years as Ravens OC finished with these pass rates:

• 44.0%
• 44.1%
• 56.4%
• 50.0%

That 56.4% high point? That came in 2021, when the Ravens lost J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill before the season – and then Lamar Jackson for five games.

Injury History

Despite playing in every game last year, Herbert didn’t have an easy time with injuries:

• He dealt with a plantar fascia injury in his right foot throughout August, though he said he was “through it” by Week 1.
• Herbert suffered a high ankle sprain in the opener but played through it until a Week 3 aggravation sidelined him late. (He made it back for the following game. But that aforementioned slow passing start could have been a symptom of these injuries.)
• Herbert added one more seemingly minor ankle/foot injury in Week 14.

Just two games all season found Herbert playing less than 98% of the snaps, though. And one of those he left early because he was blowing out the Patriots.

The only games Herbert has lost to injury so far in his career came after a Week 14 hand fracture in 2023 that required surgery.

2025 Expectations

Supporting Cast

Then-rookie WR Ladd McConkey was the only Charger to reach 100 targets last season. WR Quentin Johnston checked in second at 91, with Josh Palmer third at 65.

L.A. let Palmer walk (for probably more than he’s worth) to Buffalo. It imported veteran Mike Williams (one year, $3 million) and second-round WR Tre Harris.

At 23 and coming off a terrific couple of years in the SEC, Harris clearly arrives with more upside. We’ll see what Williams has left at 30 (until Oct. 4), but the relatively tiny contract says you shouldn’t expect a lot.

McConkey, on the other hand, delivered beyond what could have been expected as a rookie. He and Harris could quickly become the kind of inside-outside complementary WR duo that helps maximize Herbert’s efficiency.

Johnston improved in Year 2 but tied for just 50th among WRs in yards per route – despite nearly doubling that rate vs. his rookie season. He doesn’t appear on track to becoming a star but could be a useful third WR.

Trouble Beyond the Starters?

The WR corps offers little attractive depth beyond that, however. And there’s nothing exciting at TE.

Will Dissly’s first Chargers season produced career highs in:

• targets, by 26 over his previous high
• receptions, by 16
• and receiving yards, by 132

But he also posted career lows in yards per catch (9.6) and yards per target (7.5). So Dissly’s involvement likely came more because of a dearth of better options than by him earning opportunities.

The Chargers added TE Tyler Conklin on a modest one-year deal in free agency. Conklin had the impressive accomplishment of averaging even fewer yards per catch last year than Dissly (8.8).

More Receiving for RBs?

Perhaps we’ll see more receiving work go to RBs in Harbaugh’s second season. We certainly should. No team produced fewer RB receptions last year than the Chargers’ 43.

L.A. upgraded its backfield by punting both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, signing Najee Harris, and drafting Omarion Hampton in Round 1.

Those moves could also, however, signal a desire to lean back further toward the run in 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

We only had four seasons of Harbaugh and Roman together in the NFL before last year. That run-heavy San Francisco span included 2.5 years of Colin Kaepernick as the starting QB and mostly limited WR groups. But it’s worth noting those 49ers went 50-50 run-pass.

Roman’s Baltimore years are obviously skewed – at least a bit – by having Lamar Jackson as his primary QB. But his six non-Harbaugh years as an NFL OC (two in Buffalo, four in Baltimore) found his offenses running 50.5% of the time overall.

College rates are tough to weigh for NFL purposes, but Harbaugh leaned hard on the run both over his four years at Stanford – including two with Andrew Luck at QB – and nine years at Michigan (including a pair of seasons with first-round QB J.J. McCarthy).

The overall history for each coach says we should expect plenty of running. But just how much for this year’s particular team – and this quarterback – is tough to project.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Herbert has improved his passing-TD rate each of the past two years. And he led the league in INT rate (0.6%) last season. Those factors plus his aforementioned career highs in yards per pass attempt, yards per completion, and passer rating should give the coaches confidence.

His career-high aDOT in 2024 points to such confidence. The Chargers also ranked a solid 12th in total offensive DVOA last season, with the passing offense (eighth) strongly outperforming the run game (21st).

That overall offensive rating also lines up with the Chargers’ No. 11 rank last season in scoring and No. 15 in yards per play.