Marvin Mims Jr. Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

HC Sean Payton said about Marvin Mims in May 2024: “I think we’ll see a lot of growth from Year 1 to Year 2.”

That didn’t seem to pan out. Though to be fair, Payton didn’t say statistical growth.

Good thing:

• Mims’ 2023: 1.4 receptions and 23.6 yards per game
• 2024: 2.3 receptions and 29.6 yards per game

Mims finished 57th among WRs in total PPR points; 74th in points per game.

He did rack up three top-12 fantasy finishes over the final five games but cracked the top 50 just one other time (WR31 in Week 11).

Usage & Role

Mims trailed rookie WR teammates Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin in targets for the season and totaled just 7 receptions through Week 9. But his usage picked up some from there.

Mims played just 22.8% of Denver’s offensive snaps through Week 9. That increased to 31.7% from Week 10 on. More importantly, his target share jumped from an ugly 5.1% over the first span to 13.2% from Week 10 through the playoffs

That still ranked just 72nd among WRs over the latter span.

Interestingly, the change seemed to spring from the Broncos deciding to give Mims the ball via short-range throws rather than deep looks.

• His aDOT through Week 9: 15.7 yards
• From Week 10 on: 4.1

Efficiency Metrics

From Week 10 through the end of the regular season, Mims ranked 28th among WRs in PPR points per game. He feasted on TD fortune over that span, though, including 2-TD efforts in Week 17 and Week 18.

Mims ranked just 65th among WRs in expected PPR points per game over the same span – but 13th in expected points per route.

Offensive Context

“He’s one of those elite players with the ball in his hands,” Payton said in February. “So if he’s an elite returner, let’s create a return on offense.”

Denver’s leaning into the short-range passing game with Nix certainly aligned with that plan.

Vele still easily beat Mims in playing time from Week 10 through the end of the regular season, though: 57.7% to 31.7%. Vele fell short of 50% just once over that stretch.

Franklin (39.2%) also maintained a snap-share lead over Mims late in the year, getting a slight boost from his own 35.5% through Week 9.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Mims watched Denver sign a higher-profile short-range worker this offseason. TE Evan Engram got $23 million on a two-year deal in free agency, with $16.5 million of that guaranteed.

Payton has since touted Engram’s ability to add “the explosive element that we've lacked in the middle of the field.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean clashing roles for Engram and Mims. The WR drew 30 of his 54 targets last season behind the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s 55.4%.

Engram has never seen more than 18.4% of his targets behind the line across eight NFL seasons.

But Engram’s arrival will make it even tougher for Mims to find consistent target share.

Supporting Cast

Outside of Engram, the offense looks similar to last year’s. Denver barely addressed WR, adding only Pat Bryant in Round 3 of the draft. The backfield swapped out Javonte Williams for second-round pick R.J. Harvey.

Harvey tallied 61 catches at 11.8 yards per reception across the past three seasons at Central Florida. He figures to attract many of the same types of targets that went Mims’ way in 2024. But Williams vacated 70 targets when he left. That ranked second on the team.

So there’s room for Harvey to garner plenty of looks without siphoning from Mims.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Payton’s Broncos teams have continued to lean run – pass rates of 56.3% and 55.6% – as they did at the end of his New Orleans run. We’ll see whether he stays in that range in Nix’s second season or favors a bit more passing.

Payton’s words and usage on Mims’ behalf over the past two seasons point to a role that’s likely to remain limited, and specifically targeted.