Christian McCaffrey Might be the Most Important Fantasy Football Question of 2025

 

San Francisco 49ers 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR Demarcus Robinson
• WR Jordan Watkins
• RB Jordan James

Key Departures

• WR Deebo Samuel
• G Aaron Banks
• RB Jordan Mason

Notable Coaching Changes

• Klay Kubiak elevated from pass-game specialist to OC
• Robert Saleh replaces Nick Sorensen as DC

Brock Purdy

Bottom Line: Purdy's Fine But Won't Propel Your Team

Purdy has delivered top-12 scoring in different ways the past two years. That plus Kyle Shanahan’s history make Purdy a solid bet to remain in low-QB1 territory. But he likely doesn’t present upside much beyond that, which keeps Purdy from being a true draft target. You can find similar QB production later.

2024 Summary

Purdy’s Path to Points Got a Makeover

Purdy landed ninth among QBs in fantasy points per game last season (4-point TD passes), falling just 0.6 PPG short of his 2023 rate.

He finished nine weeks among the top 12 fantasy QBs, among 15 games played. That nearly matched Purdy’s 10 top-12 finishes among 16 games in 2023.

His 2024 included five top-6 weeks, edging the previous season by one.

Purdy did his scoring much differently in 2024, though.

So Now He's a Running QB?

Purdy more than doubled his rushing points in his second full starting season. In 2023, Purdy scored 26.4 fantasy points via the run – 7.5% of his season total. Those numbers spiked to 62.3 points and 19.4% of the total last year.

Purdy …

• Ran more: 4.4 carries per game vs. 2.4
• Gained yards more efficiently: 4.9 per rush vs. 3.7
• And he scored five times vs. three combined over his first two seasons

Purdy dropped back slightly less last season (35.8 per game vs. 38.6 per game the year before), but the 49ers passed at almost exactly the same rate in neutral situations:

• 53.0% in 2024
• 53.6% in 2023

Purdy scrambled a lot more in 2024, however – 20 times more than he did in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus. That powered a jump from 144 rushing yards in 2023 to 323 last year, 11th-most among QBs.

McCaffrey Loss Changed Things

Purdy said a few times during the season that he found more time in the pocket because of defenses dropping more guys into coverage with Christian McCaffrey not around.

The QB also likely got a goal-line boost from McCaffrey’s absence. Purdy rushed just three times from inside the 10-yard line in 2021, scoring twice. Last year, he logged 10 carries in that range and scored on five of them – including runs of 1, 1, and 2 yards.

McCaffrey’s status also impacted the short passing game. Purdy threw 14.1% of his 2023 attempts behind the line of scrimmage, according to PFF. That dipped to 9.7% last season, with the extra share shifting primarily to the “short” range (0-9 yards).

Passing Slips Were Probably Inevitable

Purdy’s increase in rushing production overshadowed dips on the passing side, but that was bound to happen given the 2023 heights.

Purdy led the league that season in:

• TD rate (7.0%)
• Yards per attempt (9.6)
• Yards per completion (13.9)

The TD rate tumbled to 19th in the league last year, with his 4.4% falling just below the league average.

Purdy’s yards per attempt and yards per completion each dropped by 1.0+, but the lowered rates still ranked him third in the league.

Kyle Shanahan QBs always do well in those categories.

Purdy’s Weapons Went Missing

Purdy had to deal not only with missing McCaffrey last season. He also lost Brandon Aiyuk to an ACL tear in Week 7, and got limited work with the WR ahead of September because of Aiyuk’s contract standoff with the team.

Deebo Samuel also missed his customary two games. Jauan Jennings wound up as the only 49er to reach 100 targets (113) after topping out at 56 through his first three seasons.

The Mobility Actually Wasn't New

College Purdy ran a lot more like the 2024 version than the guy who sported his jersey the previous two seasons.

Purdy ran for at least 342 yards in each of his four Iowa State seasons, averaging 4.8 yards per rush for his career, according to PFF. Even the official NCAA stats – which subtract sack yardage from a QB’s rushing yards – had Purdy going for 238+ yards every season.

Purdy notched just a 48th-percentile 40 time at the Combine, though. So last year’s rushing production was probably close to his ceiling. But we should also probably expect yardage production closer to last season’s than his 2023 output.

Injuries Have Yet to Slow Him Down

Purdy lost the final game of 2024 to a right-elbow bruise that carries no concern for 2025. He missed Week 12 with a right-shoulder injury but returned the following week and then tossed 7 TD passes over the next four games.

Purdy also hurt his throwing elbow in the playoff loss to the Eagles at the end of his rookie season but returned for a full 2023. The only game he missed that year came because the 49ers had their playoff seed clinched.

2025 Expectations

This Year's Weapons in Flux

Deebo Samuel’s gone. Brandon Aiyuk’s a question mark. He’s not expected to be ready for Week 1. Beyond that, we’ll have to see.

Kittle’s still around, and McCaffrey’s healthy again. Both will obviously remain key options. And the 49ers should feel good about Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall coming off their 2024 performances.

Jennings led the team across receiving categories in his fourth season. Pearsall sat out the first six games after getting shot in a robbery attempt in August. But he played 67.5% of the snaps from his Week 7 debut on. 

Pearsall closed out the year with receiving lines of 8-141-1 and 6-69-1 in the final two contests.

Yards Always Come Easy in Shanahan Offense

Shanahan’s scheme consistently supports yardage efficiency near or at the top of the league. That proved true even with fill-in QBs such as Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. So we should expect it to stay that way through WR corps changes.

The 49ers fell from second in the league in 2023 scoring to just 13th last year. But they finished fourth in total yards, fourth in yards per play, and ninth in offensive DVOA (down from first, but still good).

This offense should either rebound some in TDs or tumble in the other categories.

The TDs Should Bounce Back

Purdy’s passing TDs likely need to rebound to support QB1-level production. That seems likely after he fell from tops in the league in TD rate to below average. Purdy should settle between those two markers on the spectrum.

Despite last year’s 11-TD decline on the passing side, Purdy accounted for 62.5% of San Francisco’s TDs – either rushing or passing. That fell only a bit from 66% in 2023.

 

Christian McCaffrey

Bottom Line: Can You Afford to NOT Draft a Healthy McCaffrey?

The past two years have shown us the vaulted ceiling and terrifying floor for McCaffrey. The closer he gets to the season with no injuries and positive buzz, though, the more this unicorn will be worth trusting. A healthy McCaffrey’s worth a Round 1 shot. But it’s also OK if you’d rather pass for safer options.

2024 Summary

It Was a Lost Year for McCaffrey

Unless you awoke recently from a coma (welcome back), you know how McCaffrey’s 2024 went.

Poorly.

McCaffrey lost the first eight games to Achilles’ tendinitis. Then he tried to return for four games, sprained his right PCL, and then missed the rest of the year.

McCaffrey’s three full(?) weeks found him ranking 11th, 14th, and 22nd among PPR RBs – despite no TDs.

Injury History Complicated Before That

We’ve seen McCaffrey miss large chunks of seasons before: 13 games in 2020, 10 in 2021. But he didn’t miss a game across three campaigns before that and played 33 of a possible 34 regular-season games in 2022-23.

The only game he missed in that span came in Week 17 of 2023, with San Francisco clinched and playing backups.

2025 Expectations

Back and Looking Like Himself Again

McCaffrey returned to the field for the first workouts of the offseason and drew strong reviews.

GM John Lynch: “He looks bouncy; he looks explosive. Christian likes the work. … Believe me, he’s as intense a competitor as I’ve ever been around. He’s maniacal in his approach.”

HC Kyle Shanahan: “He’s as ready as any player I’ve ever been around. Right now, he’s as healthy as can be. We’ve got to kind of protect him from himself. … He’s doing a lot less than he normally would do, but I know he’s excited on how healthy he feels.”

The Niners traded away Jordan Mason and let Elijah Mitchell walk. That leaves 2024 rookie Isaac Guerendo and 2025 fifth-rounder Jordan James behind McCaffrey.

Unproven WRs Could Bolster McCaffrey

The WR corps looks much different than it did a year ago.

Deebo Samuel’s gone. Brandon Aiyuk’s working back from a serious knee injury and isn’t expected to be ready for Week 1.

That leaves Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall as the expected top two WRs to open the season. Both delivered some promising output in 2024. But both also trail well behind McCaffrey in career receiving production.

Even if the Achilles' Tendons are Good, There's One Big Risk Factor Looming

In case you only like to remember a year of history at a time, we’ll remind you that McCaffrey not only led all RB scorers in 2023. He tallied 3.3 more PPR points per game than No. 2 Kyren Williams, blasted No. 3 Raheem Mostert by 6.7 points per game, and played more games than the next four players behind him in those rankings.

Perhaps the most worrisome factor for McCaffrey is history.

He heads into his age-29 season, which hasn’t been historically friendly to RB scoring. Our aging-curve research says no RB archetype has averaged better than 82% of peak production in that season.

The counterpoint to that? Last season.

Derrick Henry ranked second in the league in carries and rushing yards and tied for the league TD lead at age 30. Alvin Kamara ranked fifth in PPR points per game at age 29. Aaron Jones ran a career-high 255 times and averaged 8.0 yards per catch across 51 receptions in the season that saw him turn 30.

McCaffrey gets a cushion similar to Kamara’s and Jones’ with his high-volume receiving. And he could prove even more important to the revamped San Francisco passing game in 2025

But age and injury history are risk factors.

Isaac Guerendo

Bottom Line: Guerendo Needs to Re-Win No. 2 Job

Guerendo heads toward September as the likeliest No. 2 RB in San Francisco. But he’s not a lock yet to start should Christian McCaffrey go down after San Francisco added rookie RB Jordan James. 

2024 Summary

Guerendo Flashed in a Small Sample

Guerendo got three games of starter-level duty as a rookie. He finished those weeks ranked 10th, 35th, and second among PPR backs.

He averaged 15 carries, 73.3 yards, and 1.3 TDs across those three contests.

Guerendo didn’t see much work beyond those games. He reached 10 carries in one other contest but logged just 29 total carries outside of those four weeks.

Guerenedo caught more passes than Jordan Mason last season and beat him 10.1 to 8.3 in yards per catch. The rookie narrowly trailed in yards per rush – 5.0 to 5.2 – but likely stands as at least part of the reason San Francisco felt comfy trading Mason to the Vikings.

2025 Expectations

Guerendo's Tools Pop But Resume Doesn't

Guerendo looks like the best bet to open the season as San Francisco’s No. 2 back. The Niners traded Mason and allowed Elijah Mitchell to walk in free agency.

But the second-year back faces competition from fifth-round rookie Jordan James, veteran Patrick Taylor Jr. – who re-signed on a one-year deal this offseason – Israel Abanikanda, and undrafted free agent Corey Kiner.

Guerendo’s bigger than James – by 13 pounds and 3 inches – and rocked a 4.33-second 40 time vs. James’ 4.55. But James comes off a more effective college career that saw him siphon some work from Bucky Irving at Oregon in 2023 and then take over the 2024 backfield.

James tallied a 233-1,267-15 rushing line and 26-209 receiving in his final season with the Ducks. Guerendo never controlled a college backfield, despite his elite size-speed combo.

Guerendo also trailed Mason and Taylor last year in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt. He also trailed Taylor but led Mason (and Christian McCaffrey) in Pro Football Reference’s rushing success rate.

He'll Only be Relevant if CMC Isn't

The 49ers backup job(s) gain focus because of McCaffrey missing nearly all of last season with multiple lower-body issues. But this situation holds no value for any non-McCaffrey RB as long as the starter is healthy.

Mitchell and Mason logged just 75 and 40 carries, respectively, in 2023 – and that came with McCaffrey sitting out the season’s final game.

More Wins Would Likely Mean More Runs

We could see some rise in rushing rate for this year’s 49ers. Last year’s group passed on 55.5% of offensive plays, and that doesn’t even include dropbacks that turned into Brock Purdy scrambles (which he did far more often than in 2023).

That was San Francisco’s highest pass rate since 2020. It’s no coincidence that 2024 and 2020 were losing seasons for the 49ers (6-11 last year; 6-10 in 2020), sandwiching three playoff campaigns.

If the Niners struggle to rebound this year, then we could again see rushing volume stay down. But any team improvement – especially when paired with McCaffrey’s return – could increase the carry pool.

Ricky Pearsall

Bottom Line: His Breakout Window Just Opened

The 2024 first-round pick faces enhanced opportunity in his second season – especially if WR Brandon Aiyuk finds his season start delayed by the ACL recovery. Pearsall will still battle Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey for targets. But he’ll present attractive upside anywhere from WR4 range on in your drafts.

2024 Summary

That He Played at All Made It a Good Season

Before we get to any numbers, it was a major victory that Pearsall made it to the field at all.

As you probably already know, Pearsall took a gunshot to the chest in an attempted August robbery. The bullet narrowly missed vital organs, but the recovery kept him out until Week 7.

His return, however, found the rookie jumping into a good-sized role.

Slot Work, Outside Reps, and Steady Playing Time

Pearsall played 76.2% of the offensive snaps his first game out. That likely wasn’t the plan, because that game just happened to see both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel leave early – and found Jauan Jennings inactive with a hip injury.

But Pearsall played 66.6% of the snaps the rest of the way. Aiyuk’s season-ending ACL tear certainly helped create space. But Samuel and Jennings both returned to the field over the ensuing two games.

Pearsall understandably went from 15 targets over his first three appearances to just 13 over his next six games. But he played a role similar to Samuel’s, spending nearly 40% of his pass snaps in the slot and the rest outside.

Strong Close Pumped Up Optimism

Pearsall did reach 4 receptions in five of his 11 games. His 12.9% target share from Week 7 on also didn’t fall too far behind Samuel’s (15.7%), though Jennings easily beat the rookie (25.1%).

Pearsall particularly enjoyed the season’s final two weeks, which included 18 targets and receiving lines of:

• 8-141-1
• 6-69-1

He added three rushes for 45 yards overall.

Pearsall finished as the WR7 and WR14 in PPR those final two weeks, as well as WR13 in Week 10, his third game. That contest found Samuel and Jennings playing their usual roles.

Data's Mixed But Tools are There

George Kittle was the only 49er with 11+ catches to beat Pearsall in Pro Football Reference’s receiving success rate. Had Pearsall garnered enough targets to qualify, he’d have ranked 25th among all WRs in that category.

He finished just seventh among 49ers in yards per route. That’s not shocking, though, given that he trailed Kittle, Jennings, Samuel, and Aiyuk in target share (adjusted for games missed) -- with RBs Christian McCaffrey and Isaac Guerendo also ahead in yards per route.

It’s worth noting that Pearsall also didn’t stand out in yards per route for his final college season. His 2.23 tied for just 61st among 153 FBS wideouts who drew at least 70 targets, according to Pro Football Focus.

Pearsall also tied for just 71st in yards after catch per reception, despite tying for just 82nd in aDOT. He ranked 45th among that group in PFF receiving grade.

Pearsall did showcase his playmaking ability throughout college, though, averaging 15.2 yards per catch across five seasons split between Arizona State and Florida. That included an SEC-leading 20.0 yards per catch in 2022, his first Gators season.

The wideout also carried 21 times for 253 yards (12.0 per rush) and 5 TDs for his career and averaged 11.5 yards per punt return his final season.

2025 Expectations

Depleted WR Room Presents Opportunity

The opportunity landscape has changed quite a bit since last summer.

Samuel’s gone. Aiyuk’s still around but recovering from the knee injury and not expected to be ready for the start of the season. That leaves Pearsall vying with Jennings for top-WR status.

Although Jennings impressed and led the team in targets last year, it did take until his fifth season -- at age 27 -- for the wideout to top 35 catches or 416 yards.

Like Pearsall, Jennings presents inside-outside versatility. He ran from the slot even slightly more (41.6%) than Pearsall did last season.

The Nos. 3 and 4 WR spots should belong to Demarcus Robinson and Jacob Cowing -- in either order -- as long as Aiyuk’s out. And, of course, we’ll have to see just how close Aiyuk is to full effectiveness once he returns.

Brock Purdy Extension Helps Offensive Stability

Brock Purdy remained a solid-to-strong passer in his third season. And the 49ers showed via his large new contract extension this offseason that they believe in Purdy supporting the pass offense for at least the near future.

Kittle, of course, remains a big factor. But he has reached 100 targets in just two of his eight seasons and thus shouldn’t present much of a target drain on the team’s top 2-3 WRs.

McCaffrey’s return figures to siphon some target share, though. The 49ers tied for just 23rd in RB receptions last season after ranking seventh in that category in 2023.

Pass Volume Might Lessen, But Efficiency Should Stay Up

Better team success would also likely remove some passing volume. The 49ers’ 55.5% pass rate last season was their highest since 2020. Those also happen to be San Francisco’s last two sub-.500 campaigns.

Volume shouldn’t be a big concern for 49ers WRs, however. HC Kylen Shanahan has historically run one of the league’s most efficient offenses. That has consistently meant elite yards-per-play rates.

Jauan Jennings

Bottom Line: Jennings Has a Shot, But Don't Overpay

Jennings heads toward 2025 facing opportunity that looks very similar to that which supported his 2024 breakthrough. Be careful, though, not to overrate a player who was forgettable through his first four NFL seasons and just OK in college. (That’s why he was a seventh-round pick). Jennings carries upside from the WR3 fringe down but gets riskier the further you chase him up the ADP ranks.

2024 Summary

Jennings Jumps from Afterthought to Fantasy Factor

It’s OK to admit that you weren’t really aware of Jennings before Week 3 of last season.

That’s when he forced everyone to take notice by catching 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and 3 TDs against the Rams.

Jennings clearly benefited from Deebo Samuel missing that game. He had totaled just 9 targets across the first two weeks. Jennings reverted to games of 6, 4, and 5 targets the next three weeks (with Samuel back) but would later benefit from Brandon Aiyuk’s season-ending knee injury.

That occurred in Week 7. Jennings missed that game and Week 8 with a hip injury. From Week 10 (after the bye) on, though, here’s how Jennings ranked among all WRs:

• 12th in target share (25.1%)
• 22nd in targets per route
• 23rd in receiving yards per game (63.4)
• 30th in team yards share (24.6%)
• 39th in yards per route
• 93rd in yards per target
• 29th in PPR points per game
• 24th in expected PPR points per game

Here are his ranks over the full regular season:

• 27th in target share
• 16th in targets per route
• 22nd in yards per game
• 34th in yards share
• 15th in yards per route
• 42nd in yards per target
• 29th in PPR points per game
• 35th in expected points per game

Jennings Didn't Add Much Post-Catch

Jennings also checked in just 93rd in yards after catch per reception over that span, despite ranking just 88th in average depth of target.

Typically, a shorter-range target should be set up for more run-after-catch production. Jennings, though, ranked just 13th among 49ers in after-catch rate – sixth among the team’s WRs in that category. Four of the five players ahead of him sported deeper aDOTs.

Last season marked a low for Jennings in YAC per reception, but he stands at just 3.9 for his career in that category, with a 10.0-yard career aDOT. He fared better after the catch in college, especially with marks of 7.7 and 8.0 his final two years at Tennessee.

He Started Slow But Then Took Over

The Niners clearly opened 2024 with a plan to play Jennings in a limited No. 3 WR role. He played a season-low 48.6% of offensive snaps in Week 1, despite Aiyuk coming off minimal summer practice thanks to a contract holdout.

The aforementioned breakout against the Rams marked the only time before Week 10 that Jennings reached 60% playing time. From Week 10 on, though, he played 82.9% of the snaps and easily led the team in target share.

Despite trailing Jennings by 8.4 percentage points in that category, though, TE George Kittle beat Jennings in yardage share (27.9% to 24.6%).

For the season, Jennings spent 41.6% of his pass snaps in the slot vs. 58.4% out wide. That marked a decrease in slot share vs. his previous three seasons – 62.3%, 54.2%, and 57.7% – but lined up near-identically with the way rookie teammate Ricky Pearsall was deployed.

Late Bloomer Brings Questionable Track Record

Jennings’ 2024 looked much different than his previous four seasons, after he arrived as a seventh-round pick in 2020.

The wideout saw no action as a rookie and then averaged just 1.7 receptions and 21.4 yards per game over the next three years.

College went similarly, as Jennings didn’t lead his team in any receiving category until his final (fifth) season. His previous three healthy campaigns found him ranking seventh, tied for second, and second among Volunteers in receptions.

Those No. 2 finishes found him trailing Josh Malone and Marquez Callaway, respectively. Both Malone and Callaway made it to the NFL, but they have combined for 94 career catches to date (83 of those from Callaway; 46 of those for the 2021 Saints).

Jennings did pass Callaway and beat junior-year Josh Palmer in that final Tennessee season. But there’s worthwhile context in the types of WRs he competed with – and often trailed – in receiving.

Injury History Reveals Dings But Nothing Major

Jennings doesn’t have much in terms of serious injuries behind him. But he has missed at least one game in each of his NFL seasons.

Last year included the two-game hip injury. He dealt with a concussion and a shin injury in 2023. There was a hamstring injury in 2022. And Jennings’ rookie season went empty at least in large part because he carried a heel injury into the year and then sustained a season-ending hamstring issue in October. (It’s not clear why he missed a game in 2021.)

2025 Expectations

Target Path Looks Clearer Than Last Year

Jennings appears to enter 2025 as the best bet to lead the 49ers in targets after doing so last season.

Samuel’s gone. Aiyuk’s still around but working back from an ACL tear that’s expected to delay his start to 2025. (We’ll see by how much.)

Kittle returns. McCaffrey’s back and should reacquire some of the target share that leaked out of the backfield in 2024. The 49ers tied for just 23rd in RB receptions last season after ranking seventh in that category in 2023.

Besides Aiyuk, Jennings’ primary competition for WR targets will be second-year man Ricky Pearsall. The former first-round pick had his 2024 start delayed by an Aug. 31 shooting, but Pearsall became a prominent member of the offense as soon as he was ready (67.5% playing time in his first game; 66.6% the rest of the way).

The 49ers did show surprising (at the time) commitment to keeping Jennings around by extending him for two years ahead of last season at $11.89 million, with $8.4 million of that guaranteed and a max contract value of $15.39 million.

He’s set to become a free agent after this season.

Purdy's Extension Keeps Offense Stable

The 49ers showed their belief in QB Brock Purdy for the foreseeable future by re-signing him this offseason to a five-year extension that averages $51 million in annual salary.

Purdy’s well-suited to operate a Kyle Shanahan offensive system that has historically supported strong yardage efficiency.

Even though Purdy fell off 1.1 yard from his league-leading yards per attempt in 2023, he still ranked third in the league at 8.5 YPA last season.

Regression Could Deliver TD Boost

Jennings left some TDs on the field last year by catching just three of his team-leading 10 end-zone targets, according to PFF. He beat Kittle by 2 targets but trailed him by 4 TDs on such plays.

Jennings also trailed Kittle in red-zone targets, but only by two. And his 25 red-zone looks put Jennings clearly ahead of the rest of his teammates.

Brandon Aiyuk

Bottom Line: We'll See About the Recovery

Aiyuk’s outlook is more about recovery than football. If he’s trending toward being ready early, then there’s value in a likely WR3-level ADP. The more uncertain he looks, the more risk he’ll carry. We’ll be watching and updating.

2024 Summary

Basically a Lost Season

We can’t glean much from the way Aiyuk’s 2024 went, other than that the 49ers believe in the player.

First came the training camp “hold in” that kept Aiyuk off the field until he finally got a large contract extension from the team near the end of August. That slow start led to a limited Week 1 role. And then Aiyuk went down for the year in Week 7.

In the five games between, he averaged 4.2 catches and 64.6 yards with nary a TD.

Previous Four Seasons Pretty Good, Though

Aiyuk, of course, gave us four years of production before that summer standoff. Here’s how he ranked in fantasy points per game over that span:

• PPR:
  • 16th in 2023
  • 25th in 2022
  • 50th in 2021
  • 19th in 2020

• Half-PPR:
  • 14th in 2023
  • 22nd in 2022
  • 46th in 2021
  • 17th in 2020

• Non-PPR:
  • 13th in 2023
  • 23rd in 2022
  • 47th in 2021
  • 15th in 2020

Now let’s look at how he ranked among WRs in targets per game …

• 2023: 38th
• 2022: 36th
• 2021: 65th
• 2020: 17th

Two key takeaways from that:

1. Aiyuk’s not in a great system to draw consistently good target volume.
2. He’s well set up to consistently outperform that target volume.

2025 Expectations

First He Has to Prove Healthy

Everything else about Aiyuk’s 2025 outlook stands in line behind his health.

Aiyuk tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in October. There have been positive reports on his progress through the recovery timeline. But there also appears to be a consensus that he’s not likely to be ready for Week 1.

That will be a situation to track throughout the summer. We’ll see exactly how much time the 49ers expect him to miss and watch for signals on just how close he’ll be to regular form.

Aiyuk Will Return to Altered Situation

Last year opened with Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk as the top two WRs and likely team target leaders. The year ended with breakout numbers for Jauan Jennings, George Kittle’s largest reception total since 2019, and minimal contributions from Christian McCaffrey

If Aiyuk’s not ready for Week 1, then the top four in targets figure to be Jennings, Kittle, McCaffrey, and second-year WR Ricky Pearsall … in some order.

To this point, Aiyuk has seen different usage than Jennings and Pearsall. He’s more of an “X”-type receiver, spending 75+% of his time on the outside. The other two have typically split their time between outside slot positions more.

That sets Aiyuk up to fit more easily into the lineup when he’s ready, with Jennings and Pearsall potentially fighting each other for playing time.

 

George Kittle

Bottom Line: He's Expensive But Not a Trap

Kittle’s early TE3 ADP seems a little expensive, but he’s been going more than two rounds later than Trey McBride and nearly three rounds behind Brock Bowers. That makes Kittle fine to target. Just make sure you draft insurance in deeper leagues.

2024 Summary

Receiving Role Has Rebounded

A couple of years ago, it looked like Kittle’s receiving role might be decreasing. Check out his target shares by year through 2022:

• 2017: 10.4%
• 2018: 26.5%
• 2019: 28.1%
• 2020: 25.7%
• 2021: 24.8%
• 2022: 18.9%

Those 2022 Niners added RB Christian McCaffrey mid-season to an offense with 26-year-old Deebo Samuel a year into a contract extension and 24-year-old Brandon Aiyuk coming off his best year to date. It made sense for that trio to hinder the impact of the TE heading into his age-30 campaign.

Now? That year looks like an outlier.

Kittle rebounded to 21% target share in 2023 and 22% in 2024.

Kittle’s Production Not Declining As He Ages

Kittle also delivered his best and third-best rates of yards per catch the past two years, producing his third and fourth 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

Kittle has also stayed better at scoring TDs over the past four years after starting slowly in that category …

• First four seasons: 5.3% TD rate
• Last four seasons: 11.3%

Let that be a general lesson that if there’s no clear reason a good player isn’t scoring more TDs, that aspect is likely to improve.

2024 a Fantasy Outlier?

Kittle scored the second-most total fantasy points and third-most points per game of his career last season. That’s unusual for a 31-year-old. But does it make his season an outlier, threatening to regress?

Let’s look at how Kittle has ranked in fantasy points per game through his career …

PPR:

• 2017: T-23rd
• 2018: third
• 2019: second
• 2020: third
• 2021: fourth
• 2022: second
• 2023: sixth
• 2024: first

Half-PPR:

• 2017: 26th
• 2018: third
• 2019: second
• 2020: third
• 2021: fourth
• 2022: second
• 2023: fifth
• 2024: first

Non-PPR:

• 2017: 27th
• 2018: second
• 2019: second
• 2020: third
• 2021: fourth
• 2022: second
• 2023: third
• 2024: first

So, last season was an outlier vs. the rest of Kittle’s career in that it’s the only time he has led the position in scoring. And it might prove to be an outlier in that it beat his previous three averages by at least 1.7 points.

But Kittle has been a near-perennial top-4 scorer at the position. So the 2024 result doesn’t look terribly out of line.

Kittle Keeps Crushing the Metrics

Kittle’s 14.2 yards per catch were the third-most of his career, though down 1.5 vs. the previous season. His catch rate hit a career-high 83%, but Kittle has exceeded 72% in five of the past six years.

He also delivered a career-high 73.4% receiving success rate, according to Pro Football Reference. His 2.62 yards per route were well up vs. the previous two years but also just the fourth-highest rate of his career.

Kittle has seen the two deepest aDOTs of his career the past two seasons, according to PFF, and been at 8.0+ for four straight seasons. That has clearly helped his yardage over at least the past two years and stands as just another indicator he hasn’t slowed down yet.

He Benefited from 2024's Chaos

Kittle’s numbers probably got a boost from last year’s injuries. McCaffrey lost the most time, appearing in just four games. That factor appeared to push more Brock Purdy pass attempts from behind the line of scrimmage to the short range (0-9 yards downfield):

• Purdy threw 14.1% of his attempts behind the line in 2023; 9.7% in 2024.
• He went from 41.8% short in 2023 to 46.4% last year.

Kittle trailed Jauan Jennings 44-39 in short-range receptions but beat his next teammate (Samuel) by 16 in that category.

Samuel also missed his customary two games for the season. And Aiyuk’s Week 7 knee tear vacated plenty of targets. Interestingly, Kittle’s target share actually declined from Week 8 on (19.8%) vs. the first seven weeks (25.5%).

Beware of the Injury History

Of course, Kittle missed two games of his own. That makes five times in the past six seasons he has sat out 2+ games.

In 2024, it was separate hamstring injuries that kept him out of Week 3 and Week 11. The season before found Kittle sitting out only the regular-season finale, after the Niners had clinched their playoff seed. But he also played through a groin injury that required surgery after the season.

Kittle missed the first two games of 2022 with a groin injury. In 2021, a calf strain sidelined him for three contests. The year before that hit the TE with a two-game MCL sprain and a six-game absence for a small foot fracture.

In 2019, it was a two-game knee sprain. And his rookie year included one game down for an ankle sprain.

Kittle has also played through more than his share of “questionable” designations along the way.

2025 Expectations

Kittle's Setup Might Be His Strongest Yet

If you draft Kittle, you do so knowing that there’s injury risk. But that’s easy to guard against – especially at a position that typically finds in-season replacement options on the waiver wire for most leagues.

There’s no questioning the strength of his role at this point, though, especially among this year’s 49ers.

Samuel’s gone to Washington. Aiyuk’s working his way back from a double-ligament tear in his right knee and isn’t expected to be ready for Week 1. That obviously casts some darkness on the WR’s outlook beyond the start of the season.

McCaffrey’s back and figures to divert more target share back to RB, but his presence also strengthens the offense overall. San Francisco finished fourth in yards without CMC last season but slipped to 13th in scoring after ranking third the year before.

Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall look like the top wideouts to open the season, a factor that should boost Kittle’s upside vs. previous seasons – at least until/unless they prove capable of coming anywhere close to the Samuel-Aiyuk tandem.

And remember that Kittle’s 2024 target share sat higher through the first seven weeks, a span that included Samuel and Aiyuk playing most of the games.

He's a Fixture in a Renovated Pass Game

Brock Purdy’s a plus in that he operates Kyle Shanahan’s system well, delivering accurate passes to shorter ranges to set up his teammates for yards after the catch. San Francisco gave him a large five-year extension this offseason to show its commitment.

The WR group gets shallow quickly behind the top three (which includes Aiyuk, for now). Demarcus Robinson arrived from L.A. via free agency, and 2024 fourth-round pick Jacob Cowing is competing for a role.

Shanahan’s first year in San Francisco was Kittle’s rookie season (2017), so the two likely know each other about as well as any coach-player combo in the league.

That relationship and experience has helped Shanahan to trust Kittle to play through injuries, even in situations that keep the TE from practicing all week.

Kittle Produces, No Matter the Surroundings

Despite all the depth-chart altering injuries last season, the 49ers finished with a neutral pass rate near identical to their 2023 rate: 53.0% vs. 53.6%. And Kittle’s big production came despite decreased passing efficiency from Purdy.

What does that all mean? Kittle’s capable of recreating last year’s production even amid changes around him on offense.

More time with the newer receivers and McCaffrey’s return should improve the offense on whole. Better offense would mean more time on the field and more scoring opportunities.

And if the newer pass catchers don’t pan out, Kittle’s there for Purdy to lean on – with a record that has found him ranking no lower than sixth in points per game in any format since 2018.

 

Where Do 49ers Players Land in Your Rankings?

How should you treat Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and the rest of the 49ers in your drafts? Only one way to find out.

Check our fantasy football rankings now to see where every player lands in your format.

Better yet, use the league sync to import your specific settings and get rankings custom fit to your needs.

Jared and I talked Kittle prominently in this look at our TE rankings ...