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Don’t Trust The Box Score: Brian Thomas Jr. Is Closer to Breaking Out Than You Think

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments this season. He failed to reach double-digit PPR points in each of the first three games and barely got there with 10.6 points this past week.

The difference in the most recent game came from HC Liam Coen’s adjustments to how defenses covered him. Instead of forcing deep shots into double coverage, Coen leaned on a new route combination that repeatedly beat the 49ers.

When in Doubt, Run the Out

San Francisco kept Thomas from going deep by rolling one- and two-deep looks to his side. With defenders giving him space underneath, Coen turned to the “out” route until the 49ers tightened their cushion.

In this clip, Thomas hits tight coverage but has positioning on his Out route.

This became a staple for the Jaguars throughout the game. Whenever the 49ers backed off, Thomas was ready with another out -- often with even more separation.

This was also the first game where Thomas went in motion multiple times, though he was targeted only once from it.

The motion helped identify zone coverage and gave Thomas more space to win on the out. He ends up wide open as an easy first read pass.

Even when Thomas wasn’t running an out, Trevor Lawrence seemed to expect it. On this play, Thomas runs deep while Lawrence throws short, resulting in a clear miscommunication. It was one of several that have hurt the Jaguars’ offense this year.

In this clip, Thomas gets hit with double coverage opening possibilities for other WRs.

Thomas did more than run outs, but the 49ers -- like other opponents -- made sure he didn’t beat them deep. Safeties rolled his way on any vertical attempt, which opened passes underneath, including this first down to Travis Hunter.

Thomas’ Talent Remains Clear Despite Early Struggles

Thomas still has the same talent he showed as a rookie. Don’t let the slow start fool you. The scheme and Lawrence need to do more to get him open, but his explosiveness and route-running remain intact.

When defenses give him space deep or shift coverage toward Hunter, Thomas should thrive again. Lawrence also needs to deliver more accurately under pressure. We saw Lawrence support Thomas last year so he certainly can again.

It’s frustrating to wait through the duds, but patience is the right play — or take the chance to buy him at a discount.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles led the league in run percentage last season at 58.1%. Brown has always needed to be efficient in a run-heavy scheme, relying on quick breaks to gain separation.

In 2024, he posted a 31.7% target share. So far this season, that number is down to 26.8%. In Week 3, Brown saw nine targets but caught only two. The film shows the lack of production isn’t all on him.

He’s Winning Routes, Just Not Getting the Payoff Yet

Scripted touches to Brown have been poorly executed this season. On this screen, his lead blocker releases upfield, but the ball arrives late, leaving Brown no chance to avoid the first tackler. One of his two catches went for a loss.

Jalen Hurts is a great QB, but miscommunications have been frequent. Here, Brown runs a streak but looks for a back-shoulder throw. He slows down while Hurts fires deep toward the sideline. Hurts expected Brown to continue, while Brown expected to stop. These breakdowns happened multiple times in the game.

On this curl, Brown’s footwork is sharp, and he turns quickly with separation. Proper timing should make this an easy catch with yards-after-catch potential. Hurts throws wide, perhaps expecting a comeback instead. 

Another chance for a big play lost to miscommunication.

The slant has been Brown’s most effective route throughout his career. His explosiveness and acceleration make him tough to cover in man. Yet this was his only slant of the game. Even with tight coverage after the jam, Brown secured the catch for a first down. The Eagles have oddly gone away from this staple, and reintroducing it could stabilize his production.

Brown’s 6-109-1 line in Week 3 against the Rams came mostly on streaks and comebacks. Against Tampa Bay, though, the deep shot was taken away. The single-high safety shaded his way, leaving DeVonta Smith one-on-one. 

Defenses continue to tilt coverage toward Brown, willing to leave others open rather than let him win deep.

Missteps Now Could Be the Setup for a Big Rebound

Brown isn’t playing his sharpest football. His separation -- even on successful slants -- hasn’t matched past seasons. 

But the bigger issue is that the offense no longer leans into his strengths, compounded by repeated miscommunications with Hurts.

Brown still has the skill to win against tight coverage and produce WR1 numbers. With adjustments to playcalling and improved chemistry, he can rebound quickly.

Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns

Judkins has handled 84.6% of Browns RB touches over the past two games. He finished as PPR RB11 both weeks, establishing himself as a fantasy starter.
In Week 4, he went 21-82-1 on the ground and caught all four of his targets for 33 yards.
The rookie missed the entire offseason, though, and his play hasn’t always matched the fantasy output.

Judkins Keeps Slipping Out of Yards

Balance has been an early issue, with multiple slips and falls even after light contact. Here, Judkins shows good vision and sidesteps into the hole but falls before any defender touches him. Plays like this consistently leave yards on the field.

This is another example of solid vision, but Judkins bounces outside instead of taking the lane off tackle. He lacks the speed and agility to turn the corner, and defenders close quickly.

Despite the mistakes, Judkins flashed positives. Here, he shows patience and vision rather than plowing into the line, turning it into one of his best runs of the game.

Receiving Line Looks Better Than the Reality

The receiving line from Week 4 will draw attention from PPR managers, but it may not hold up. Detroit leaned heavily on Cover-3 and Cover-4, leaving the flats open. Cleveland capitalized by targeting Judkins there.

On both plays, LB Jack Campbell shadows Judkins in a shallow zone. Beyond him, no defender covers the flat, creating easy receptions. Judkins adjusts well to the passes, but he lacks the long speed to threaten deeper levels of the defense. Against man coverage or Cover-2, these looks may disappear.

The Bellcow Role Doesn’t Mean Consistency

Judkins’ workload has been outstanding. The Browns are treating him as a bellcow, and the volume alone drives fantasy value.

But his balance issues, misreads, and missed offseason work show in his play. If he continues having these issues, there could be some low YAC games leading to poor fantasy production. There is room for growth as he settles in. 

QB Dillon Gabriel will also be stepping into action this week. His rushing ability could bring designed runs that might siphon touches away from Judkins.

Judkins remains a fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to deliver RB11 production every week.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.