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Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 8: Now What Do We Do with A.J. Brown?

Did We Wait Too Long On These Guys?

One of the biggest challenges to building this article every week is figuring out when to target certain guys.

A player might look like someone you want to buy (or sell). But what if that next matchup looks bad? Should we just go ahead and try to make the move, and trust the talent?

Or should we wait a week?

The answer -- of course -- is that it depends. It depends on the player. It depends on the team and the specifics of that matchup. And sometimes waiting means you miss your opportunity.

Is that the case this week? Check out the candidates and see what you think.

Week 8 Buys

• A.J. Brown
• Zay Flowers
• Derrick Henry

Week 8 Sells

• Bo Nix
• Alvin Kamara
• Keenan Allen

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Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

Let's start with a "maybe we waited too long" guy ... and then dig into why you shouldn't assume it's too late.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

I have to admit something: I was already planning to nominate Brown as a “buy” this week when we were planning last week’s article. I just figured we could wait through a (seemingly) negative matchup with the Vikings before making that move.

Of course, Philly flipped that matchup and delivered a season high in passing yards. Brown didn’t lead the Eagles in targets and managed just 4 catches on six targets (his fewest since the opener). But he turned those into 121 yards and 2 TDs.

So how does he still qualify for this spot? Let’s get into it.

Maybe We Waited Too Long … But Maybe We Didn’t

Sure, it’s quite possible that Brown’s best fantasy outing of the season last week has closed that buy window and satisfied his current manager. But if we just assume that’s the case and don’t even try, we might miss out on an opportunity.

Here’s how Brown has ranked among PPR receivers by week so far:

• Week 1: 99th
• Week 2: 67th
• Week 3: fifth
• Week 4: 91st
• Week 5: 48th
• Week 6: 19th
• Week 7: fourth

Wanna know something funny about Brown’s two big weeks so far? DeVonta Smith led him in receptions in each of those games.

Brown has been frustrating to roster and start so far. Believe me. I’ve had him in my lineup every week for my FFPC Main Event team. (Fortunately, I’ve also had Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams.)

That’s why the Brown manager in your league might not be ready to just consider the veteran receiver “back.” Frankly, you shouldn’t normally trust a wideout who manages just two finishes better than 48th among his first seven games.

Here’s What Makes Brown Different

The first key difference with Brown, of course, is that he’s A.J. Freakin’ Brown. His first three Philly seasons found the stud receiver ranking seventh, eighth, and 13th among WRs in PPR points per game.

From his 2019 entrance to the NFL through last season, only three players caught more TD passes:

• Mike Evans
• Davante Adams
• Tyreek Hill

That’s why we’re more willing to overlook his sluggish start and believe that Brown’s finally ready to deliver more help.

But What About His Offense?

Last week’s Eagles passing commanded attention. But it was actually the third straight week in which Jalen Hurts set a season high for passing yards. Check out his weekly totals:

• 152
• 101
• 226
• 130
• 280
• 283
• 326

Hurts has also posted three straight highs in yards per attempt and delivered QB ratings of 100.8 or better in four of his past five outings.

The Philly run game, on the other hand, remains broken. So expect the Eagles to continue to need to throw. And the schedule lines up well. Philadelphia gets the second most favorable schedule for WR scoring the rest of the way, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

That starts with the Giants this week. So rather than assume you missed your chance to buy in on Brown, take a run at him ahead of his positive Week 8 matchup.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

The Flowers breakout took a detour with Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury. But it probably didn’t veer off course as much as you might think.

Despite a huge Week 1 (28.1 PPR points), the third-year wideout now sits just 28th among WRs in total PPR points and 24th in points per game.

But his role and receiving volume have remained strong.

Flowers Getting WR1-Level Usage

Baltimore’s lead receiver sits fourth among all players with a 93% route rate, according to Fantasy Points Data numbers. And he ranks ninth across positions in target share.

Even with Cooper Rush struggling through the past two games, Flowers still managed 5 and 6 receptions.

For the season, only eight players have tallied more games of 5+ catches than Flowers’ five:

• Trey McBride
• Christian McCaffrey
• Keenan Allen
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Jake Ferguson
• Chris Olave
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Every one of those guys has played a game more than Flowers, who just had his bye.

Things Are About to Get Better

Jackson’s nearing a return. It’s not yet clear whether that will come this week. But if it doesn’t, that’ll mean one more week of the current Flowers manager likely underrating his asset.

And how much of a difference does Jackson make? Pretty big.

The Baltimore QB ranks fourth this season in completion percentage over expected, according to Sumer Sports. Cooper Rush? 32nd.

Jackson also ranks fifth-best in expected points added per dropback. Rush? Dead last.

Schedule Finish Carries Boost Potential

Finally, Baltimore’s schedule could help make Flowers a key factor in deciding your league winner.

From Week 13 through Week 16, the Ravens get:

• Cincinnati
• Pittsburgh
• Cincinnati again
• and New England

That’s the third-best schedule for WR scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed over that stretch. And a Week 17 visit to Green Bay stands only slightly negative -- ultimately neutral.

Go get Flowers now before his breakout campaign gets fully back on track.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens

We would not normally include a RB and a WR from the same offense in this section. But that’s how big a difference Lamar Jackson’s presence makes in Baltimore.

Like with A.J. Brown above, this “buy” would have been easier without some nice production his last time out. But Henry’s still at least worth a price check.

Henry still sits just 21st among RBs in PPR points per game, and even a mere 15th in non-PPR.

Why Now?

The biggest catalyst for Henry and the Baltimore offense is obviously the impending return of Jackson. Whether his hamstring proves ready for this week or not until next, the QB’s return figures to deliver an offensive jolt.

Just look at this year’s scoring. The Ravens racked up 40, 41, and 30 points in Jackson’s full outings so far, 20 in the game he left early, and then 13 total across the two games he missed.

This week finds Baltimore facing a Bears D that rates below average against both the run and the pass, while allowing the league’s eighth-most points. After that … the Dolphins.

That’s the Miami defense that has allowed 39 more RB rushing yards than the Bengals, and 103 more than any other defense.

• Three rushing scores for Quinshon Judkins
• 138 total yards to Kimani Vidal
• 234 to Rico Dowdle

Once Henry gets a run at that defense, it’ll almost certainly be too late to acquire him. Even waiting until that Miami matchup’s in direct view next week might close the buy window.

Upside in the Downside Matchups?

Our RB strength of schedule page reveals three negative spots on the other side of the Dolphins. But none among the Vikings, Browns, and Jets is likely to pull away from -- or maybe even lead -- the Jackson Ravens.

And that kind of positive game script would keep Henry involved.

After that span come the two (high-ceiling) Cincinnati matchups, sandwiching a Pittsburgh defense that ranks just 24th in rush DVOA.

Second-half Henry could look a lot more like last year’s version.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 7 Report

• Why Hold instead of Buy on Judkins? Because that 3-TD outing against Miami is bound to inflate his price. This week sports a much tougher matchup at New England.

Week 6 Report

Sell These Players

That comeback was cool last week. Now it's time to move on (for good).

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Nix was awesome in the fourth quarter of that shocking comeback win over the Giants. But that merely obscures the fact that he stunk through the first three quarters. And much more of his season has leaned that direction.

Nix ranks just 30th in Pro Football Focus passing grade for the season.

His 6.1 yards per pass attempt mark a tumble of 0.6 vs. his already-limited rookie-year rate.

Sumer Sports has the Denver QB just:

• 22nd in EPA per dropback
• 22nd in adjusted net yards per pass attempt, which accounts for sacks, TDs, and INTs
• 34th in CPOE

Nix ranks just 23rd in completion rate despite tying for just 23rd in average depth of target. Throwing shorter passes should mean a higher completion rate. If not, then you’re just an inefficient passer all around.

And that’s how his second season’s going.

Sell the Big Fantasy Score

Nix delivered the top fantasy score of Week 7. That 5-48-2 rushing line played a big part.

That marked the second time this season that Nix hit 30 points. He finished QB6 in Week 4, the other time he ran for a TD.

Otherwise, he’s got just one weekly finish higher than QB18 and three of QB20 or lower.

Nix gets the best fantasy matchup for QB scoring this week in the Cowboys. So you could wait until after that one, hope for another big score, and then try to shop him.

Or you could use that game as an extra selling point to a team who might have one of the six QBs on bye (or an injured QB such as Jayden Daniels).

Whether you make the move now or next week, though, selling Nix before he reverts to form looks like a good idea.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Kamara’s usage has remained decent, and he’s actually underperforming that usage to this point.

That would typically set up a lead RB as a buy candidate, especially in the wake of his team’s No. 2 RB (Kendre Miller) tearing an ACL.

But this looks more like a case of getting out while you can.

It’s Not Bad Luck; It’s Bad Performance

When a RB’s scoring 3.2 PPR points under expectation per game, there’s often plenty of bad luck involved. And you could say there’s some bad luck in Kamara scoring only 1 TD so far.

But Kamara ranks just 22nd among RBs in red-zone carries, according to Pro Football Focus. And his mere 1 carry inside the 5-yard line sits tied for 35th. And it’s not like Miller was stealing those touches. The No. 2 RB had just five red-zone attempts (to Kamara’s 13), including none inside the 5.

So if the veteran’s going to score more, it looks like he’ll have to do it from distance.

Maybe a Younger Kamara …

Fantasy drafters collectively worried that Kamara would hit the cliff in 2024, but it looks like that has finally come this year.

The 30-year-old is averaging a career-worst 3.6 yards per carry and a career-worst (by a wide margin) 4.9 yards per reception.

Kamara’s averaging the second-fewest yards before contact per carry of his career, according to Pro Football Reference, and the second-fewest yards after contact per carry.

That’s a brutal combo.

Kamara’s tackle-breaking has declined. And his rush yards over expected per attempt rank second-worst in the league this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

In short: We’ve got an over-the-hill runner in a bad offense (29th in scoring, 26th in DVOA) presenting no reasons for optimism.

Try to get out now before this anchor drags you all the way down.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Through seven weeks, Allen has been the kind of pick that wins leagues.

Drafted well into reserve territory, he sits seventh among WRs in total PPR points; 13th in points per game. And it hasn’t been particularly fluky.

Allen ranks fourth among WRs in targets to date. He sits 10th at the position in expected PPR points per game. So he’s scoring right in line with his usage.

So why’s this guy a sell?

It Starts with the Potential Return

Why present all those positives at the start of a sell case? Because it’s important to set up what we’re working with here.

You shouldn’t be looking to dump Allen for just whatever you can get. He’s a key piece of one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses. And he might well keep giving you points.

But Allen’s also coming off his biggest fantasy outing of the season to date, presents some risk factors the rest of the way, and -- most importantly -- should bring you back strong value in trade.

What Are Those Risk Factors?

Let’s start with the crowded pass-catching corps. It obviously hasn’t been a problem so far, and Allen leads the group in receptions. But can it keep supporting three fantasy-starter level wideouts -- plus an exciting rookie TE?

Odds are against it, and we’ve already seen Ladd McConkey catch up to Allen.

Through three weeks, Allen ranked 15th among all WRs in target share; McConkey 33rd. Since Week 4, Allen sits 25th to McConkey’s 26th.

Of course, that still means Allen’s in the lead. But he needs big volume more than the other guys.

Allen relies most heavily on short-range opportunities. According to PFF, Allen has made 81.8% of his receptions in the “short” range (0-9 yards). 

The other guys?

• Quentin Johnston: 46.4%
• McConkey: 59.5%
• TE Oronde Gadsden: 63.6%

Gadsden has seen an uptick in playing time and involvement the past two weeks and flashed dynamic ability. In fact, he, McConkey and Johnston all lead Allen in yards after catch per reception -- even though Gadsden’s the only one with a shorter average target depth than Allen (and only by a half-yard).

All that means Allen needs big target volume more than the rest of the group to support his fantasy production. And the recent role growth for Gadsden only further challenges that aspect.

Finally, let’s not forget Allen’s age and injury history. This is the age-22 season for rookie Gadsden. It’s the age-24 season for McConkey and Johnston.

Allen? He’s 33. Does that make him the biggest threat to wear down or the guy with the most experience at surviving the season?

Guess we’ll see. But if Allen plays 17 games, it would mark the first time … ever.

The veteran missed two games in his lone season with the Bears. He missed the final four games of 2023, his first final season with the Chargers. And he lost seven games to injury the year before that.

There were heel issues each of the past two years, quad and shoulder trouble in 2023, and hamstring struggles in 2022.

Short Week; Longer Sell Window

I know the Chargers play on Thursday night this week, which condenses your opportunity to move Allen. But you don’t need to limit that pursuit to this week.

See if you can make something happen ahead of a Minnesota matchup that’s been negative for WR scoring overall. But the Eagles showed last week that the Vikings’ D is far from impenetrable.

So keep looking for chances beyond Week 8. And make sure you don’t undersell. Despite those risk factors I just harped on, this is a WR1-level performer so far who should net you a strong return.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 7 Report

• Dowdle becomes a hold because you probably can't get a good price after Chuba Hubbard split work in his first game back.
• Why did I add "high" to Swift? The Chicago run game looked good again, for the second straight week coming off the bye. It also worked rookie RB Kyle Monangai into the plan much more than any previous week. That didn't keep Swift from delivering a second straight 100-yard game. He remains a sell, but make sure you're getting a good return. We're not betting the rookie will pass him in usage.

Week 6 Report

Next Up

Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 7 Usage

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.