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Jaylen Waddle Could Make Your Season If This One Thing Breaks His Way ...

Miami Dolphins 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Tua Tagovailoa

Bottom Line: Tua Still a Fantasy Spot Starter

Tagovailoa's elevated injury risk and lack of rushing production push him well outside of QB1 range. Treat him as a spot-start option based on matchup.

2024 Summary

Ceiling Games Disappeared

Tagovailoa averaged 260 passing yards and 1.7 TDs per game. He reached 300 yards in four of 11 games and hit 2+ passing TDs five times.

He finished 23rd among QBs in total fantasy points and 13th in points per game. He tallied only one weekly finish better than QB8.

Lots of Passing ... and Little Rushing

Tua averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game, which would have come out to a hefty 615 over a full season.

He totaled only .6 scrambles per game, which is consistent with past seasons.

Tua Attacks Defenses With Short, Quick Passes

Among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Tagovailoa ranked second in adjusted completion rate and tied for 17th in yards per attempt.

He ranked 24th in Pro Football Focus passing grade and 29th in PFF’s Big Time Throw metric. The latter highlights a QB’s ability to throw downfield into tight windows.

Tua posted a deep-throw rate (20+ air yards) of only 5.5%. This figure was nearly 11% in ‘23.

A quick-strike offense remained in place. Tua’s average of 2.42 seconds to throw was the shortest league-wide, per Next Gen Stats.

Tua Deals With Injured Teammates

The Dolphins ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points per game. Miami ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), a slight increase from 2023.

Tagovailoa’s weapons dealt with several injuries. Tyreek Hill played through a wrist injury, while Jaylen Waddle missed two games with a knee injury. LT Terron Armstead even missed a pair of games.

The O-line remained underwhelming, ranking 28th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. They finished 20th in Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade.

2023 Was the Gold Standard

Tagovailoa’s production peaked in 2023 with 4,624 yards, 29 TDs, and 14 INTs. Still, he finished as the QB15 in fantasy points per game.

Poor rushing production played a major role. In fact, Tua has tallied 0 rushing TDs and fewer than 75 rushing yards in three straight seasons.

Tua's Injuries a Problem -- Again

Tagovailoa missed four games with a concussion and two with a hip in 2024. He’s now suffered four documented concussions since 2019.

He played all 17 games in 2023 but missed time with concussions in 2021 and 2022.

2025 Expectations

Dolphins Add Backup Options

Tua enters his sixth season as the starter. Miami added Zach Wilson in free agency and Quinn Ewers in Round 7 of the NFL Draft to compete for the backup job.

Key Pieces Hill, Waddle Return

Tyreek Hill is slated to return for his fourth season in Miami. The 31-year-old was the subject of offseason trade rumors.

Jaylen Waddle returns for his fifth season. In 2024, Waddle's yards per catch (12.8) and yards per route run (1.53) both hit career lows. At 27 (in November), he’s squarely in his prime years.

Miami returns TE Jonnu Smith. He took off down the stretch in 2024, finishing as the fantasy TE1 over the final eight weeks.

Miami’s O-line still profiles as a below-average unit. LT Terron Armstead retired, and the team will likely turn to unproven second-year man Patrick Paul. He played at a replacement level on 229 pass-blocking snaps last season.

Miami beefed up the interior with G James Daniels and rookie G Jonah Savaiinaea. Note that Daniels is coming off a September Achilles tear.

QB Should Benefit from Familiar Scheme

Tua enters the season with offensive continuity. HC Mike McDaniel and OC Frank Smith return for their fourth season together.

In three seasons as Miami’s play-caller, McDaniels’ units have ranked 13th (2022), 20th, and 8th in pass attempts; 4th, 1st, and 15th in passing yards.

In June, Tua talked about an offseason emphasis on playing the position safely. Part of that plan? Getting the ball out quickly to avoid hits.

De'Von Achane

Bottom Line: Achane Retains a Top-5 Ceiling

Achane leveraged a sizable receiving role to hit his fantasy ceiling in 2024. A repeat performance is possible, but his early Round 2 ADP makes him just an OK value in drafts.

2024 Summary

With Tua? Good. Without Tua? ...

Achane led all RBs with 78 catches and 592 receiving yards.

But he finished 20th in rushing yards (902) and tied for 22nd in rushing TDs (6). The former Round 3 pick tallied 30 or fewer rushing yards in seven games.

Achane finished as the PPR RB5 overall and RB6 in points per game.

His weekly finishes alongside a healthy Tua Tagovailoa:

• third
• second
• second
• second
• 24th
• sixth
• sixth
• seventh
• 11th
• 14th
• third

Without Tua:

• RB31
• RB40
• RB51
• RB23
• RB31
• RB7

Miami Emphasized Achane's Receiving

Achane ranked 22nd in rush attempts (203) and second in RB targets (87). His 11.9 rush attempts per game came in ahead of Raheem Mostert (6.5) and rookie Jaylen Wright (4.5).

However, Achane’s 45% carry share ranked just 30th among RBs.

Miami prioritized Achane as a versatile catch-and-run threat. He saw 40 screen targets (46%) and 27 slot targets (31%). His target share: A strong 15%, second among RBs.

Achane also finished second among RBs in red zone targets (14).

Efficiency Metrics Reveal Predictable Rushing Dip

Achane proved hyper-efficient with a 92% catch rate and just a 1.3% drop rate. His yards per route run figure increased from 1.12 in 2023 to 1.45.

Predictably, his yards per carry dropped from 7.8 to 4.5. Achane’s rushing success rate also dropped – from 54.4% to 49.3% – while his explosive rush rate sank from 18.4% to 9.9%.

Two other metrics point to a dip in rush efficiency. His yards after contact per attempt figure went from 5.12 to 2.91. Plus, his PFF Elusive Rating fell alongside it, from 153.5 to 49.6 (24th among 31 RBs with 150+ carries).

Fins Offense Underwhelms

The Dolphins ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points per game.

Miami ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), a slight increase from 2023.

Miami’s O-line ranked 27th in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades. Cornerstone LT Terron Armstead missed two games.

Tua Tagovailoa missed six games (concussion, hip), forcing starts from Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson. The Fins averaged only 15.3 points per game without Tua.

Tyreek Hill played through a wrist injury, while Jaylen Waddle missed two games with a knee injury. Achane was truly needed for a Miami offense that lacked WR depth.

Achane Rebounds from Injury-Laden 2023

Achane missed time in 2023 with shoulder and knee injuries. But he played all 17 games in 2024, despite a concussion and an ankle sprain.

2025 Expectations

Keep an Eye on Jaylen Wright

Achane’s role projects similarly in 2025.

Miami moved on from Raheem Mostert but added veteran Alexander Mattison and rookie Ollie Gordon (Round 6). Mattison won’t be a lock to make the final roster after a quiet 2024. Gordon’s unlikely to make an impact after a disappointing 2024 at Oklahoma State.

Look for second-year Jaylen Wright to slide into the No. 2 RB role. Only 22, he brings some darkhorse potential to lower Achane’s volume.

O-line Changes Need to Work Out

Miami returns Tua Tagovailoa and top WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

LT Terron Armstead retired, and second-year Round 2 pick Patrick Paul is expected to take his place. This will be a spot to watch in training camp.

Miami used a 2025 Round 2 pick on mauling G Jonah Savaiinaea and added G James Daniels in free agency. We’ll keep an eye on Daniels’ recovery from Achilles surgery in October.

Key Coaches Remain in Upside Offense

Achane enters the season with offensive continuity. McDaniel and OC Frank Smith return for their fourth season together. Tua Tagovailoa returns for his sixth season.

In three seasons as Miami’s play-caller, McDaniels’ units have ranked 13th, 20th, and 8th in pass attempts; 31st, 15th, and 19th in rush attempts. Miami figures to retain a quick-strike offense, which benefits Achane’s target volume.

Jaylen Wright

Bottom Line: Wright's Role Should Expand in Year 2

Expect Wright to slot in as Miami’s No. 2 RB. He’s an intriguing bench stash given his elite speed and De’Von Achane’s injury history.

2024 Summary

Wright Saw Light Use as Rookie

Wright finished his rookie season with 249 scoreless yards on 68 attempts (3.7 yards per carry).

His biggest workload appeared in Week 5 after De’Von Achane sustained a first-half concussion. Wright took 13 carries for 86 yards in that one, although it marked his only outing with more than nine attempts. Injuries limited backup Raheem Mostert to 12 games, but Achane appeared in all 17.

Achane also hogged backfield receiving work, limiting Wright to six targets and three catches.

Potential Hiding in His Efficiency Metrics

It’s hard to draw any conclusions given the size of Wright’s 2024 sample (68 attempts). He at least showed promise with 3.25 yards after contact per attempt, per Pro Football Focus. He added eight runs of 10+ yards.

Again, Wright was essentially non-existent in the passing game. He garnered a target on only 7.6% of his routes. (For comparison, Achane was at 19.1%.) Wright added a lowly 0.10 yards per route run.

Wright Dodges Injury Trouble

Wright underwent thumb surgery after his final season at Tennessee, limiting his participation at the NFL Combine.

He missed one preseason game with an unspecified injury last summer, but he made it through the season without a setback.

2025 Expectations

Dolphins Add RBs, But Wright Still the No. 2

Miami released veteran RB Raheem Mostert in February. Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon arrived over the offseason.

Mattison made 14 appearances for Vegas in 2024. He managed just 3.2 yards per carry and ranked 44th out of 47 qualifiers in rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.59).

Gordon looked like a legit NFL RB after a massive 2023 at Oklahoma State. But he regressed last fall and fell to Round 6 of the draft.

Ultimately, Wright’s the favorite to hold the No. 2 RB role behind De’Von Achane.

O-line Should Improve

Miami’s O-line looks moderately improved after a disappointing 2024.

Guards James Daniels and Jonah Savaiinaea supply likely upgrades along the interior. We’ll see how Daniels recovers from a Week 4 Achilles tear, but he’s expected back for the opener. Miami traded up to select Savaiinaea in Round 2 of April’s draft.

LT Terron Armstead announced his retirement this offseason, and Patrick Paul is the likely replacement. He played a limited role in 2024 but has the size (6'7, 332) and length to create space in the run game.

Scheme Continuity Can't Hurt

Wright returns to a scheme that’s heavy on zone concepts. We remain intrigued by the fit here, given Wright’s excellent speed and the reshuffled O-line.

McDaniel has shown that he's not afraid to lean into the run, either. Last year, Miami ranked 19th in pass rate over expected (-2.5%).

Tyreek Hill

Bottom Line: Hill Worth a Shot at Cost

Further decline risk remains in play for Hill, who turned 31 in March. But it’s fair to wonder how much a 2024 wrist injury affected his output. Back healthy, Hill retains a top-five fantasy ceiling with a fair, Round 3 ADP.

2024 Summary

Hill's Production Hurt By an Injured Tua

Hill ended 2024 at WR18 in PPR points and WR31 in points per game (12.8). He averaged his fewest PPR points per game since his rookie year, even removing six missed games from Tua Tagovailoa.

In 11 games with Tua, Hill averaged:

• 5.1 catches
• 63.1 yards
• 0.6 TDs

In six games without Tua, he averaged:

• 4.2 catches
• 44.2 yards
• 0 TDs

Hill recorded only four top-12 fantasy finishes. He ranked outside the top-40 WRs on six occasions.

Role Shrinks in 2024

Hill averaged 7.1 targets per game last year, well under his figures of 10.0 and 10.6 over the prior two seasons.

His 11.9-yard average depth of target was right in line with his first two seasons in Miami. However, Hill’s deep ball target rate dropped to 15.7% following years of 22.8% and 21%.

Efficiency Metrics Show Mixed Bag

Hill managed just 11.8 yards per catch – his lowest figure as a Dolphin.

He posted career lows in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (77.3), yards per route run (1.75), and yards after catch per reception (3.5).

It wasn’t all bad news, though. Hill’s 40.5% air yards share ranked fifth among WRs. And he remained an effective separator, slotting 8th among WRs in ESPN's Open Score.

Fins Emphasize Pass; Production Fails to Follow

The Dolphins ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points per game. Miami ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), a slight increase from 2023.

QB Tua Tagovailoa missed six games (concussion, hip), forcing starts from Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson.

Wrist Injury Helps Explain Hill's Decline

Hill played all of last season with a left wrist injury he suffered in August. According to him, surgery was an option in-season. He played through it – and then underwent a pair of offseason surgeries, including one to remove screws from his wrist.

Here’s HC Mike McDaniel at the NFL Combine. "It was a ligament issue; it wasn’t a broken wrist. He’s scheduled to be running very soon, in which he’ll be relying upon that in his training until he can catch the football, which will be more around summertime."

2025 Expectations

Hill Returns Despite Trade Rumors

Back in Miami for Year 4, Hill's volume should increase. Current projections have him for 140 targets – an increase of 18 from 2024.

Miami returns WR Jaylen Waddle, whose production regressed in 2024 (58-744-2). TE Jonnu Smith returns for a contract season after breaking out for a stunning 88-884-8 line on 111 targets. He’s a likely regression candidate.

Miami added former Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency (2 years, $5.9 million). He should fill the low-volume No. 3 WR role.

Back in a Proven Offensive Scheme

Hill enters the season with offensive continuity. HC Mike McDaniel and OC Frank Smith return for their fourth season together.

The Dolphins have ranked 24th (2022), 23rd, and 7th in offensive plays per game under McDaniel. Over that same span, they’ve ranked 13th, 20th, and 8th in pass attempts.

No Major Concern Over Hill's Age

Hill enters his age-31 season. Our historical aging curves suggest a top-tier WR like Hill will perform at 90% of his peak at 31.

Jaylen Waddle

Bottom Line: Waddle an Ideal WR3

Waddle disappointed in 2024, posting only a few useful fantasy lines. But there’s some bounce-back appeal in 2025 if he and Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy.

2024 Summary

Production Hits Rock Bottom

Waddle managed only 3.8 catches and 49.6 yards per game. Both marks ranked outside the top-45 pass catchers. He added a career-low two TDs.

Waddle spiked with games of 109, 144, and 99 yards. Otherwise, he was a fantasy non-factor, hurt by an injured Tua Tagovailoa.

In 10 games with Tua, Waddle averaged:

• 4.1 catches
• 60.4 yards
• 0.2 TDs

In five games without Tua, Waddle averaged:

• 3.4 catches
• 32.6 yards
• 0 TDs

Waddle finished 49th in total PPR points and 53rd in points per game.

Waddle's Target Count Trails Surprising Duo

Dolphins WRs combined for a 50.4% team share -- sixth lowest league-wide. Waddle tallied a career-low 16.6% target share.

He averaged just 5.2 targets per game, fourth on the team behind Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and De’Von Achane.

Waddle’s 9.8-yard average depth of target marked his lowest figure since 2021. Meanwhile, only 8.4% of his 83 targets traveled 20+ air yards. Among 104 qualifiers, only Amon-Ra St. Brown posted a lower rate.

Catch Rate Impresses, But That's About It

A short-range role led to a strong 70% catch rate. Waddle’s 1.53 yards per route run easily marked a career low, though.

He also set career lows in yards after catch per reception (4.1), missed tackles forced per reception (.05), and PFF receiving grade (71.5).

Among 116 qualifiers, Waddle ranked 54th in ESPN's Open Score.

The offense struggled a bit as well. Miami ranked 18th in total yards and 22nd in points.

The Fins ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), up slightly from 2023.

2024 Bucked a Trend

Before 2024, Waddle hit 70+ catches and 1,000+ yards in three straight seasons.

Since his rookie year, we’ve also seen a trend develop in his alignment. Waddle played a primarily slot role as a rookie – and then handled at least 71% of the snaps out wide in three consecutive years.

Injury History Still Noteworthy

Waddle missed two games with a late-season right knee injury. He didn’t need offseason surgery.

Waddle’s now missed five games over the past two seasons. A high-ankle sprain – the second of his career – cost him time in 2023.

2025 Expectations

Waddle Remains the No. 2

Waddle returns to the No. 2 WR role behind Tyreek Hill.

Miami added former Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency (2 years, $5.9 million). He’ll fill the No. 3 spot.

Jonnu Smith enters his second season in Miami. We expect Waddle and Smith to act as co-No. 2 targets.

Expect More Short-Range Targets

Waddle enters the season with offensive continuity. HC Mike McDaniel and OC Frank Smith return for their fourth season together.

The Dolphins have ranked 24th, 23rd, and 7th in offensive plays per game under McDaniel. His units have ranked 13th, 20th, and 8th in pass attempts, and 4th, 1st, and 15th in passing yards.

Waddle also enters year four alongside Tua Tagovailoa.

Tua’s injury history continues to add a risk factor for Waddle. Miami at least upgraded the talent at QB2 with the signing of former Round 1 pick Zach Wilson.

Look for Waddle’s usage to remain heavy on short targets, as Miami limits Tua’s exposure to hits.

Jonnu Smith

Bottom Line: Smith Carries More Risk At a Pricier ADP

Smith delivered as a late-round sleeper in 2024. His ADP sits inside the top-8 TEs for 2025, though, so he’s no longer a clear value.

2024 Summary

Smith Erupts for Career Year

Smith assembled a huge 2024, finishing as the TE4 in PPR points and points per game.

He finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in 10 of 17 games. He recorded six top-five finishes, with five of them coming after Week 10.

And, not surprisingly, he was noticeably better with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.

In 11 games with Tagovailoa, Smith averaged:

• 6.9 targets
• 5.6 catches
• 57 yards
• 0.5 TDs

In six games without Tua, Smith averaged:

• 5.8 targets
• 4.3 catches
• 43 yards
• 0.5 TDs

In total, Smith ranked fourth among TEs in targets (111), catches (88), and receiving yards (884). He tied for second in TDs (8).

A Diverse Role With Surprising Volume

Smith’s 20% target share ranked second on the team behind Tyreek Hill. The veteran TE filled a high-volume short-range role, resulting in a deep target rate of only 3.7%.

HC Mike McDaniel used Smith as a versatile offensive weapon. He played 46% of his passing snaps in the slot, 26.6% inline, and 23.8% out wide, per Pro Football Focus.

Smith Delivers an Efficient Season

Among 33 TEs with 50+ targets, Smith ranked:

• 5th in yards per route run
• 6th in catch rate
• 7th in yards after catch per reception
• 21st in yards per catch

His average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.0 ranked 30th in the same sample.

McDaniel deserves credit for his creative offensive plans. Smith, though, showed he can separate at an above-average level. He tied for 12th out of 43 qualifiers in ESPN’s Open Score.

Miami NEEDED Someone to Emerge

While Tua missed time, Smith benefited from injuries to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill rarely looked 100% healthy while playing through a preseason wrist injury. He underwent surgery this offseason.

Jaylen Waddle missed a pair of late-season games. Smith's fantasy finishes in those games: TE9 and TE14.

Overall, Miami ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points per game. The Fins ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), up slightly from 2023.

Career Highs Across the Board

Smith set career highs in targets, catches, and yards in 2024. He matched a career high in TDs.

Smith’s 2024 wasn’t totally out of the blue. His production came on the heels of a mini rebound in 2023, when he tallied 50-582-3 with Atlanta.

Smith's Run of Good Injury Luck Continues

Smith rides into September with no medical concerns. He’s played 17 games in consecutive seasons.

2025 Expectations

Expect a Dip in Targets

Miami will run it back with starting WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill played through a wrist injury in 2024 and underwent offseason surgery. He brings bounce-back potential into 2025 and the possibility of taking some work away from Smith.

Waddle went underutilized in a disappointing ‘24. At just 26 – and playing under a sizable second contract – he’s another rebound candidate.

Miami added veteran Pharaoh Brown to the TE room, but he doesn’t affect Smith’s fantasy outlook.

Ultimately, expect Smith to fall shy of the 111 targets he earned last season.

Return of HC, OC Helps

Smith enters the season with offensive continuity. HC Mike McDaniel and OC Frank Smith return for their fourth season together.

The Dolphins have ranked 24th, 23rd, and 7th in offensive plays per game under McDaniel. His units have ranked 13th, 20th, and 8th in pass attempts, and 4th, 1st, and 15th in passing yards.

Last year, McDaniels’ offense ranked 10th in TE target share.

Temper Your Expectations After Outlier Season

Smith turns 30 in August. Our historical aging curves show that, on average, there’s a production decline of ten percentage points from age 29 to age 30.

It’s not a reason to ditch Smith in fantasy. Rather, it’s a reminder to keep expectations in check after a massive eighth-year breakout.

We'll also need to keep an eye on a potential trade. The Dolphins reportedly want to retain Smith, per NFL Insider Cam Wolfe.