Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

The Most Criminally Underrated Fantasy Football Players 2025

These 11 Players Scream Value

Should we just start calling this The James Conner List?

(Maybe The Conner Roll?)

The Arizona RB made this list last year and has lived among the underrated fantasy football players since he moved to the desert in 2021. 

Conner also serves as a perfect example of what we’re going for here.

Build Your Roster on Top of These Underrated Players

This space isn’t for the late-rounders with exciting ceiling projections ready to flip your draft. We’re focused on early-round values, players who will set your solid 2025 base and allow you to chase those late Sleepers.

These guys are targets because the market’s overlooking them, letting proven production linger on the board at least a round too long – and often more than that.

We’re leaning on best ball ADP, because that’s where the most draft volume has been to date. And we’re letting the ADP Market Index highlight those top early values.

Here are 11 players worth your attention:

• Jalen Hurts
• Justin Fields
• Jonathan Taylor
• Joe Mixon
• Alvin Kamara
• James Conner
• D.J. Moore
• Jaylen Waddle
• Chris Olave
• Chris Godwin
• Dalton Kincaid

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP Market Index: +25

Hurts led last year’s list as well, and now he’s going two spots lower in QB ADP than he did then.

But the primary point here is not that Hurts belongs higher in your QB rankings. It’s that he’s the biggest potential advantage you can find among a quartet of elite passers going later than they should.

Underdog Fantasy ADP has 19 WRs, 11 RBs, and two TEs ahead of the first QB (Josh Allen). Lamar Jackson follows at the Round 3-4 turn, with Jayden Daniels closer to the middle of Round 4.

If those ADPs continue into full-redraft season, then you should strongly consider grabbing an elite QB in that range.

Hurts Unfairly Trailing His Fellow Elites

At QB4 in ADP, Hurts finds another nine players between him and Daniels. That’s somewhat understandable. Hurts’ scoring average dipped for the second year in a row last season, and he finished just ninth in total fantasy points.

But take away the Washington game he left in the first quarter, and that scoring average jumps ahead of his 2023 number to rank fourth at the position. 

Saquon Barkley’s arrival didn’t harm Hurts near the goal line. His 11.7 expected rushing TDs beat the next QB by 4.2 and Hurts’ own 10.3 from the previous season. And his passing numbers should rebound in 2025.

Expect More Eagles Passing Success This Year

Hurts only got four games with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert in the lineup last year. Check out his splits vs. when one of more of those guys was out:

Add Hurts’ rushing to the guy in that second column, and you’ve got a good fantasy QB. Creatine him up to that first-column guy, and you’ve got a difference maker.

Plus, you should expect more passing volume. Sure, Philly will remain among the league’s most run-heavy offenses – and should. But last year’s 44.25% pass rate landed more than 3 percentage points behind Baltimore’s second-lowest rate. HC Nick Sirianni’s first three Eagles teams went:

• 54.14%
• 51.60%
• 48.84% (pre-A.J. Brown)

Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets

ADP Market Index: -4

Wait, doesn’t that negative Market Index mean he’s a bad value? Eh, technically.

But I’m bending my own rule for the article here to say that Fields’ QB10 ADP vs. our QB9 ranking qualifies him. Why? Because that ADP doesn’t properly address his upside.

Elite Rushing Fuels Fields’ Fantasy Value

Fields’ 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons, behind only Lamar Jackson. Fields’ 6.0 yards per carry ranks fourth.

That has helped him finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in 24 of his 42 career games with a snap rate north of 90%. He has scored as a top-5 QB 12 times.

Here’s how Fields' rates compare with some QBs who finished top-12 in total fantasy points last year:

Jets Give Fields a Chance for More QB1 Production

Fields gets another crack at starting this season. He got a two-year, $40 million deal with a fully guaranteed 2025 salary. That makes him a safe bet to remain under center this season.

New York’s offensive line needed improvement after ranking 23rd in ESPN Pass Block Win Rate and 17th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade last year. But they spent the seventh pick of draft on Armand Membou, who should immediately upgrade the RT spot.

The Jets also remain thin on pass catchers. But Garrett Wilson supplies Fields with a true No. 1 WR, and RB Breece Hall is one of only four RBs to average 30+ receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons.

Keep an eye on WR Arian Smith, too. The rookie had a buzzy spring and could give Fields a dangerous downfield weapon with his 4.3 speed.

Can New Coaches Boost His Passing?

The Jets made an upside hire in OC Tanner Engstrand. The 42-year-old worked under Ben Johnson in Detroit, helping the Lions to top-5 finishes in total yards and points in each of the last three years.

Detroit’s scheme has been praised for simplifying reads and creating easy throws for QBs. That could benefit Fields, who has struggled with decision-making and accuracy.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

ADP Market Index: +7

Taylor played nine games with Anthony Richardson last year and five without him. His numbers much preferred the without.

The Richardson scoring average would have ranked 11th among RBs for the season. The non-Richardson edition would have led the whole position and matched Taylor’s career high from 2021, when he did lead RBs in scoring.

Should Taylor Sabotage the QB Competition?

Outside of Richardson and Daniel Jones, there’s probably not a person who should care about Indy’s QB battle more than Taylor. Even if Richardson manages to keep the job, that would almost certainly mean a significantly better QB than the guy who wore his jersey last year.

But Jones is the upside path for Taylor. Jones would not only take away less of the goal-line rushing. He would also improve the offense’s passing volume. And Jones’ career rate of just 6.5 yards per pass attempt reveals his short-range lean

Expect Taylor to improve on his mere 1.5 receptions per game of the past two years. He averaged 2.4 or more for each of his first three seasons.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

ADP Market Index: +27

Hey look! Draft Sharks thinks Joe Mixon is underrated. That’s new!

Well, if you’re getting tired of hearing about it, then start drafting the vet where he belongs.

This case is about as simple as you can get. Mixon finished his first Houston season as the RB9 in half-PPR points per game, and that’s without adjusting for any weeks he left early. That followed an RB14 finish in 2023 and RB8 in 2022.

As of this writing, Mixon sits 18th among RBs in best ball ADP. That’s nonsense.

Houston added just fourth-round rookie Woody Marks and overcooked Nick Chubb (one-year, $2.5 million deal) to the backfield. They also renovated the WR corps.

The offense should rebound after falling from 13th in scoring to 19th and 12th in yards to 22nd. But the lead RB’s gonna get worse?

One Big Question … Easy Answer?

The one valid concern with Mixon for 2025 is his age. He’ll be 29 when the season begins. Our research on player aging says nearly every archetype of RB tends to drop off in that specific season.

Of course, that measures average performance and doesn’t signal that every 29-year-old RB is a bad bet. Just look at last year’s leading rushers, and you’ll find:

• 30-year-old Derrick Henry at No. 2
• 30-year-old Aaron Jones at No. 9
• 29-year-old James Conner at No. 11

Mixon’s 2024 performance didn’t signal any downward trend. And Houston’s offseason backfield moves don’t signal any 2025 concern.

Most importantly, Mixon remains positioned to dominate work after ranking sixth in opportunity share (carries plus targets) last season. That touch volume insures against potential efficiency declines, especially when you consider that RB18 ADP.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

ADP Market Index: +21

Kamara’s coming off the age-29 season that we just discussed for Mixon. Not only did the Saint remain effective, but his yards per reception rebounded from a career-low 6.2 in 2023 to 8.0. And his 4.2 yards was Kamara’s best mark since 2020.

Also like Mixon, Kamara’s insulated by touch volume even if those rates fall this season. He ranked third among all RBs in opportunity share (adjusted for games missed) and led the position in targets, despite missing three contests.

That was merely the sixth time in eight years that he garnered at least 86 targets. That sounds like the kind of safety valve that could be especially important for a second-round rookie QB.

Drafters Didn’t Learn Last Year’s Lesson, But We Did

We already made this mistake on Kamara last year. At least, Jared and I did in our drafting. That’s why Kamara made our “What We Got Wrong” podcast this offseason.

Neither of us was really drafting him last summer, even at a decent RB15 ADP in PPR drafts. And we each made the especially goofy decision to avoid Kamara despite our own rankings calling him a value.

Kamara showed us by finishing fifth in PPR points per game.

Now the market has him even lower: RB19 in best ball ADP. Kamara finished 2024 seventh in points per game for that half-PPR format.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

ADP Market Index: +17

What would The Conner Roll be without its namesake? Here’s how he has finished in PPR points per game across four years in Arizona:

• RB9
• RB9
• RB7 (over 12 healthy games)
• T-RB12 (over 15 heathy games)

Last year’s scoring average beat the previous two seasons. And the Cardinals gave him a two-year, $19 million extension late in November.

That at least says, “Please lead our backfield for one more season.”

The draft market, on the other hand, says Conner belongs at just RB22, in the first half of Round 6.

If You Like Other Cardinals at Cost but Not Conner, You’re Doing It Wrong

This point probably won’t seem obvious. But Conner’s ADP gets especially silly when you factor in the market prices on some key teammates …

• Trey McBride: TE2, 26.4 overall
• Marvin Harrison Jr.: WR15, 27.3 overall
• Kyler Murray: QB8, 95.7 overall

For Harrison and Murray, that’s higher than each guy finished among last year’s fantasy scorers. So consciously or not, the draft market is betting on Arizona’s offense improving vs. last year. Yet it’s simultaneously betting that the lead back falls off.

But, Matt, doesn’t it make sense to lean away from the RB if I’m leaning into the passing game?

Sure, that would make sense … if Conner were going earlier.

For example: I expect significantly more passing volume in Philly and Green Bay vs. last season. So I’m leaning away from Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs at elevated costs and into QBs and pass catchers from both offenses.

But if Murray, Harrison, and McBride all pay off at ADP, that’ll be a pretty good offense presenting plenty of scoring chances. And the talent’s still meh beyond the guys we’ve already mentioned.

If you still don’t want a piece of Conner because of age or injury history (fair), then you should at least strongly consider his likely backup, Trey Benson (RB44 in ADP).

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

ADP Market Index: -1

Moore’s the second player on this list with a negative index number. But WR is different.

Best ball drafters flood the early rounds with wideouts, inflating their ADPs. Even with RB scoring up last year, there are 14 WRs going among the top 24 players in Underdog Fantasy ADP. That’s two more than last year.

The WR totals through Round 3 and Round 4 are down vs. last year, but the position inflation overall means you need to look at WR values differently than the other positions – at least for now.

WR ADPs will also likely move later as we shift from best ball season to redraft. Check out the WR totals at each level for this year’s best ball ADP vs. last August’s PPR redraft ADP:

So Moore’s negative valuation here actually stands out as more positive than it seems, relative to the position. Just look at the surrounding WR index ratings:

Perhaps You Hate Consistent Production?

Moore sits 22nd among WRs in best ball ADP. He’s 17th in both our half-PPR and full-PPR WR rankings. Even that’s a little lower than how he fared over his first two years in Chicago. Moore finished 14th among WRs in total PPR points last year, and sixth the season before that.

The previous five seasons in Carolina weren’t bad either:

• WR24
• WR18
• WR25
• WR15
• WR36

And it’s not like he’s been benefiting from strong QB play.

So why don’t drafters like the 28-year-old more for 2025? Probably primarily because of Chicago’s offensive changes.

Is Moore’s Perceived Weakness Actually a Strength?

The Bears hired Ben Johnson as new HC, and his first draft promptly delivered TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden III. It’s a crowded offense under a new coach with no ties to Moore.

I can understand how that might make you hesitate to draft Moore. I just think you’re wrong.

Let’s think it through: 

• We collectively expect Johnson to positively impact the Bears’ offense. He just finished piloting three straight years of top 5 Lions offenses and inherits plenty of talent.
• The market believes in Caleb Williams. Chicago’s second-year QB sits top 12 in positional ADP across best ball sites, despite a bad rookie year that found him outside the top 20 in points per game.
• Moore is objectively good, and the most proven producer in the Chicago offense. That’s the aspect you’re probably underrating.

This is a former first-round pick. Chicago acquired him in a trade that sent away the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. Moore has since posted his two largest fantasy totals. And he remains peak-aged (turned 28 in April).

If you’re not drafting Moore, you’re either betting against the Chicago pass offense on whole or implicitly betting that an improved offense will leave behind its best player (to date).

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

ADP Market Index: Waddle +3, Olave -1

We’re combining these two still-young WRs because their cases look very similar. Waddle carried a WR16 ADP last summer; Olave WR15.

As of this writing, they’re at WR30 and WR36 for this year, respectively.

The why is pretty obvious: Both players let you down big time last year. Olave finished 58th among WRs in half-PPR points per game; Waddle 60th. But that’s not enough to erase the reasons they made sense as earlier picks in 2024.

Waddle’s Bad 2024 a Dramatic Outlier

The 26-year-old Dolphin watched his receptions per game (3.9) and yards per game (49.6) fall to career lows in his fourth season. Miami’s offense simultaneously fell to 18th in total yards, 22nd in points, and 22nd in total DVOA. Those rankings the year before:

• First
• Second
• Second

So not only should a young, talented WR see his production and performance rebound, his team should also be motivated to better leverage his talents.

And his 7.8 half-PPR points per game followed seasons of:

• 11.6
• 13.2
• 12.2

Jonnu Smith’s recent departure only helps the target picture. You can find more Waddle details in Kevin’s Dolphins fantasy preview.

Olave’s Probably Being Drafted Near His Floor

The 25-year-old Saint’s largest issue in 2024 was injury. Concussions limited him to eight games and forced him to leave two of those early.

Olave’s scoring average for the other six games would have ranked 36th among PPR WRs, and he finished four of those six weeks among the position’s top 26 scorers.

The two previous years found him ranking 27th and 21st in PPR points per game. And he’s one of just five WRs to average 2.05+ yards per route on 40+ targets each of the past three years. The other four:

• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Pretty good company. Of course, we’re not ignoring Olave’s risk factors.

Two Legit Concerns Challenge Olave’s Outlook

The two concussions last year give him five documented brain injuries since he arrived at Ohio State. That’s likely to at least affect Olave’s return timeline should he suffer another. And it could even threaten his season.

The other big question is obvious: QB. At best, second-round rookie Tyler Shough is an unknown. At worst, he fails to win the starting job this summer and New Orleans turns instead to Spencer Rattler or someone not currently on the roster.

That all adds risk to drafting Olave. But his WR36 price tag mitigates that risk, adding upside if the questions get answered in his favor.

Jared digs further into Olave, Kamara, and their fantasy-relevant teammates in his Saints fantasy preview.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP Market Index: +6

Godwin presents a much different case than any of the three previously listed wideouts. His biggest question mark looks more immediate than the other guys. But his path to upside might be even clearer.

How’s That Leg, Chris?

Last time we saw Godwin, the Ravens dislocated his left ankle at the end of a Week 7 loss. Neither he nor the Bucs has said much about when we can expect full Godwin back on the field.

That understandably has early drafters skittish and Godwin’s ADP at just WR37. And we’ll certainly be watching closely throughout the summer for signals on the receiver’s outlook.

But the first big signal of the offseason – a three-year extension at $22 million per year – says the draft market is overreacting. And if you’re following that trend, then you’re ignoring the market’s 2024 Godwin mistake.

Remember Last Time You Underrated This Guy?

Godwin made this article a year ago, when his ADP sat at exactly the same spot. He also got the shortest write-up, because the case was easy. 

Drafters were then taking Godwin at exactly where he finished in PPR points per game the previous season, ignoring that it was his worst output in five years and that his expected fantasy points pointed to more.

Godwin finished his abbreviated 2024 as a top-5 WR in points per game across fantasy formats. A high TD rate certainly helped. But even his expected PPR points per game ranked 15th at the position, ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Terry McLaurin, and Ladd McConkey, among many others.

Worried About Offensive Changes? Stop It

If you read all that and still say, “But the Bucs lost OC Liam Coen and drafted Emeka Egbuka in Round 1” … don’t worry so much.

Both are true. And neither is a reason to downgrade Godwin to the bottom of WR3 territory.

Godwin’s fantasy success predated Coen’s one-year stint as OC. And Tampa Bay obviously didn’t draft Egbuka to steal targets from the dude they just re-upped for $22 million a year.

The Ohio State alum marked a good value at a position where depth helps, and the Bucs figure to lose Mike Evans soon (32 in August and in the final year of his contract).

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

ADP Market Index: +55

I pointed out the best ball market’s effect on WRs. That position’s inflation, of course, is pushing other positions down the board. And TE might be seeing the largest impact.

After TE1 Brock Bowers and TE2 Trey McBride, you’ll find 31 straight TEs carrying positive ADP Market Index values. That includes 13 at positive-50+ like Kincaid.

But the Bills TE stands out as a value even within that landscape. He sits just 14th in TE ADP on Underdog vs. TE9 in our half-PPR rankings.

And Kincaid’s arguably a better fit for lineup-setting leagues  than for best ball.

We Haven’t Seen a High Ceiling Yet

Kincaid finished just three weeks among the top 12 PPR tight ends last season, including just one inside the top 6.

He hasn’t fared well on the TD front in either of his first two years, tying for 17th among TEs in expected TDs last year – according to PFF – and 17th by himself the season before.

But 2023 still found a string of five straight top-9 PPR finishes, plus another two at the end of the year. That’s because Kincaid’s well positioned for strong target volume.

Sometimes You Should Chase the Attractive Floor

Kincaid finished his rookie season as the No. 14 TE in target share. But that climbed to TE10 from Week 7 on, the beginning of the aforementioned scoring streak.

He finished last season 10th as well, despite a decline in target share after his mid-season knee injury. (Get more details in Kevin’s Bills fantasy preview.)

Kincaid has finished each of his two seasons tied for 12th among TEs in expected PPR points per game and second among Bills in total targets, despite not playing 17 games either year.

You'll Need More Than Just These Underrated Players

The best thing about the players on this list: They can fit into any way you're looking to build in your fantasy football draft.

The best way to draft always starts with winning on value.

But these early-round values are just a start. Want to fill out the plan for your draft? You need to check out this Draft Guide -- loaded with players to target and tips for how to build from any draft position.

And if you happen to be starting your build with difficult keeper decisions, Jared and Matt recently did a whole show on the topic ...

Next Up

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2025: Sneaky Good, Stupid Cheap

Next Article  

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.