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Is 2025 the Year to Go All-In on WRs?

Did you get burned by your first-round WR last year? If so, you might be thinking RB-or-bust to open this year’s draft. But that rigid plan could doom you for a second straight year.

As our RB strategy preview pointed out, last year saw a jump in 300+ carry backs (six) -- the league’s most since 2010.

But does that mean you should pass on WRs early in your draft? Or will 2025 be the year WRs reclaim control?

The Per-Game Edge: Smarter WR Evaluation

How do you assess player performance from last season? If you look primarily at full-season fantasy totals, then you're committing a common mistake.

It's more impressive, for example, to deliver the 20th-most fantasy points while playing just 10 games than it is to rank 11th while playing all 17 contests. Per-game stats matter more than full-season totals. (You can find fantasy points per game listed on our historical stats pages.)

According to Sharp Football, per-game statistics have a higher year-over-year correlation to fantasy points for WRs than season totals. Specific per-game statistics provide the highest correlation. 

The Stats That Actually Matter for WRs

The metrics that have the highest year-over-year correlation to fantasy points for WRs are:

• Targets per game
• Receptions per game
• Receiving yards per game

Eight of the top 10 WRs in fantasy points per game last year ranked among the top 10 in targets per game.

On the other side, TD percentage has the lowest correlation. And receiving TDs per game isn't very predictive.

We can use this information to identify undervalued WRs to target. Let’s look at Jakobi Meyers, for example. Here’s how he ranked last season among WRs who participated in 5+ games:

• 11th in targets per game
• 14th in receptions per game
• 17th in receiving yards per game
• Tied for 56th in TDs per game

His lack of TDs has contributed to pushing his ADP down outside the top 40 WRs, even though he profiles closer to a WR2 in many areas.

This is why we are higher on Meyers in our rankings than the consensus.

Who We See Getting Fed This Year

Head over to our WR rankings, and you will see which WRs we project to earn the most targets this season:

All 12 WRs land among the top 16 in our PPR rankings, looking like good bets to score fantasy points consistently.

But even this list deserves scrutiny. Amon-Ra St. Brown, for example, sits 12th in projected targets -- but sixth in ADP. That points to him being overvalued currently in drafts, while better target bets such as Tee Higgins and Garrett Wilson sit at WR13 and WR15, respectively.

There are also players outside the top-12 who sit significantly higher in our target projections than ADP.

All three rank as values in our ADP Market Index. 

Comparing potential target projections to draft position can be a great way to identify some of the best values at WR.

The Case for Prioritizing WR Early in PPR

Deciding between a WR vs. RB in the early rounds often molds how you build your fantasy team. Looking at the consensus ADP, do you take:

• Brian Thomas Jr. (WR9) or Josh Jacobs (RB7) in Round 2?
• Tyreek Hill (WR12) or Breece Hall (RB13) in Round 3?
• Davante Adams (WR16) or Chuba Hubbard (RB18) in Round 4?

Here are our PPR total points projections for each pairing:

• Brian Thomas Jr. (298) vs. Josh Jacobs (260)
• Tyreek Hill (264) vs. Breece Hall (243)
• Davante Adams (249) vs. Chuba Hubbard (242) 

All three WRs are projected for more points than their RB counterparts. Going WR over RB early gives you safer fantasy starters to plug into your required WR spots.

Going after those target winners we touted earlier is a great way to accomplish this.

If you lean WR early and find yourself a little thin at RB, these guys can deliver fantasy-starter upside at lower prices:

• Brian Robinson Jr. (early Round 7)
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. (mid-Round 7)
• Jaylen Warren (late Round 7)

All three should be startable in fantasy lineups from Week 1 and look like a good bet to lead their backfields in fantasy points.

Pass on WR Early? Try These Guys

If you do pass on WRs early, there are some attractive targets later in your draft that could pay off.

High-Ceiling WR Targets for the Middle Rounds

Drafting for upside in Rounds 6 and 7 can be viable on nearly any team build. Some WRs in that range with top-25 potential:

Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

McMillan should be the lead X WR for an improving Bryce Young in a scheme that loves bigger WRs. The rookie showed high-end talent in college, leading the Panthers to draft him eighth overall. 

His situation mirrors Brian Thomas Jr. from last season -- a first-round outside WR with the athleticism and skillset to dominate in man coverage. There were questions about the Jaguars' offense last season, but Thomas still ended the season as WR4 in PPR. McMillan should play a similar role to Thomas on an offense poised to improve from last season. The payoff could be similar.

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

Williams outperformed last season’s ADP and continues to draw rave reviews from the coaching staff. 

He finished the season with a 17.6% target share overall. That share hit 21% over his final nine games, after Williams returned from a two-game suspension. That’s a monster climb from his mere 9.3% target share in 2023. And it put him much closer in usage to St. Brown, whose target share dipped from 27.9% in 2023 to 25.4% in 2024.

Repeating his target share from the second half of last year would be enough to give Williams WR2-level potential. If he siphons any more opportunities from teammates -- or the Lions pass more overall -- even better.

Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars

Hunter seems focused more on offense in camp and has already ascended the depth chart. That gives him access to the 29.3% of last year’s targets vacated when Jacksonville dumped Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis. So the opportunity is there. And we know the talent is, too. That’s why the Jags traded up to draft him second overall.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa's early-season concussion obviously hurt the whole offense, but Waddle also saw a heavy decrease in target share. In 2023, he had a 22% target share, which dropped to 15.4% last year, the lowest of his career.

Waddle’s three-year extension last offseason also shows the team’s commitment to him, so they will be motivated to utilize him similarly to his early career. In his first two seasons, Waddle finished as WR14 and WR12 in PPR points per game.

Cheap WRs Who Could Lead Their Teams

Wanna really annoy your league mates? (Of course you do.) Snag a cheap WR who could turn into a weekly difference maker. How? It’s about targets once again.

Target WRs on teams with offensive questions. Iffy QB? Uncertain pass-run split? Unclear WR depth chart? Any of those scenarios can scare off fantasy drafters, and that creates potential opportunity for you.

Grab a modestly priced WR in a situation like that, a guy who at least has a path to lead his team in targets, and then see what happens. In many cases you don’t even need to count on this guy as an early-season starter. But he could quickly earn a regular spot in your lineup.

Here are a few candidates:

Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots (late Round 7 ADP) 

Diggs’ ACL injury last October called his status into question for 2025, but he has been a full participant in training camp. With a talented young QB in Drake Maye, Diggs could rebound into a solid fantasy producer like we saw in Minnesota.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (mid-Round 8)

As outlined earlier, Meyers' targets and receptions from last season make him easy to draft again this year. With a QB upgrade in Geno Smith as well, Meyers is poised to continue being the second receiving option on the offense behind TE Brock Bowers.

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (early Round 9)

The 49ers drafted Pearsall in the first round in 2024, and he may have an opportunity to break out in his second season.

More on Pearsall in a minute.

Why League Format Should Shape Your WR Strategy

One of our core fantasy tenets is to know your league's rules. It may seem simple, but not everyone fully understands their league format -- and how it impacts player values and optimal draft strategy.

Check your starting lineups before the draft starts.

Does your league start three WRs plus a flex in PPR?

That obviously increases WR value and likely means you’ll want to try to start four of them on a weekly basis.

That, in turn, makes WRs more attractive early in your draft. But it also increases the chance that multiple league mates will also be attacking WR early. Beware of this factor as you go, and make sure you’re not drafting like everyone else.

Maybe you have two flex positions?

That extra flex can be ANOTHER WR in your starting lineup. In PPR, filling those flexes with highly targeted players can give a weekly advantage.

Start only two WRs?

You still might want to start your draft with a high-level wideout, but this format spreads the WR value much more evenly throughout the league. So you might gain an advantage from targeting other positions while your league mates chase early-round wideouts.

Does your league use non-PPR scoring?

A non-PPR league downplays the importance of the WR position (and pass-catching RBs). RBs fly off the board early, and you don’t want to be caught without them.

Targets -- and receptions -- matter less here, but they still matter. Because the wideouts who consistently get targeted at high rates still tend to be the better bets for reliable yardage.

And we know TDs are unpredictable, so beware of chasing last year’s high TD-rate WRs.

Ultimately, your best strategy will be to stay flexible as the draft unfolds. And your Draft War Room is built to achieve just that. It knows the lineup and scoring specifics for your league, and it’s constantly re-evaluating player values across positions -- custom fit to your specific settings and your actual draft.

Three WRs Poised to Beat Their Draft Cost

There is no better feeling than finding the next stud WR in the later rounds of your draft.

The three WRs below are being undervalued in drafts, making them great bets to outperform ADP.

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

Pearsall arrived as a first-round pick just a year ago, with a stacked depth chart limiting his fantasy viability.

A year later, the situation looks much different.

Deebo Samuel got shipped out to Washington. Brandon Aiyuk’s ACL and MCL tear will delay his start in 2025. Even 2024 target leader Jauan Jennings is dealing with a calf injury, and has accomplished little outside of that fifth-season breakthrough.

Pearsall’s prospect profile left some questions. He was a 24-year-old rookie who spent five years in college, but he showed improvement every season. The improvements in route running, ball tracking, and body control led to Pearsall landing in Round 1.

A 4.41-second 40 time didn’t hurt.

A Strong Finish Hints at Bigger Things for Pearsall

We learned late in the year that Pearsall can perform when given an opportunity. The final two weeks saw Pearsall total 14 catches,210 yards, and 2 TDs. He finished as WR7 and WR14 in PPR those two weeks.

The film showcased his upside. The 49ers utilized Pearsall in motion, creating athletic mismatches with the defense. His speed, along with smooth route running, often got him open through different route combinations. It was a game plan and WR clinic.

Let’s also not forget that he got shot before the season, starting the year on the physically unable to perform list. Pearsall impressively played 76% of snaps in his first NFL game.

Pearsall’s upside in HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense makes him a worthwhile pick at his Round 9 ADP.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Downs finished last season 31st in points per game in PPR. He currently sits 47th in consensus ADP.

Downs did score very differently last season depending on the QB. Downs’ 15.5 points per game when Joe Flacco served as the primary passer would have ranked 17thfor the season.

He averaged just 10.7 PPR points over seven games with Anthony Richardson, though. That would have tied for 47th, exactly where he is going in drafts.

The Colts made QB improvement a priority this offseason. They brought in Daniel Jones on a one-year deal that includes $13.15 million guaranteed and a max value of $17 million.

We know Jones isn’t a Hall of Famer (or even a Pro Bowler), but he does love targeting short-range WRs. Jones has averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt for his career, and Downs had the shortest depth of target among non-RBs for the Colts last year.

If Richardson starts, at least he beat out Jones, which would signal some level of improvement.

Downs' separation ability from the slot ranks among the best in the league. His cutting ability makes him difficult to cover on slants, giving him a clear advantage in man-to-man coverage. Downs makes the QB’s job much easier (no matter who is throwing the ball). 

Downs is being drafted near the floor we saw last year. Pounce on that 10th-round ADP and reap the benefits. 

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

Coleman didn’t do enough to help fantasy teams as a rookie. He finished 67th among WRs in PPR points per game and had just two top-24 scoring weeks.

But some of the underlying metrics suggest a player ready to explode.

Coleman averaged a massive 19.2 yards per catch. His 15.5-yard average target depth ranked seventh among 104 WRs with 40+ targets.

He only caught six of the 19 deep targets, but another year with Josh Allen should sharpen the connection.

And Coleman served as more than just a deep target. His 7.7 yards after catch per reception ranked fifth among 104 qualifying WRs. He also led the league in yards after catch per reception over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Coleman also drew 25 red-zone targets and eight end-zone targets, ranking top-40 among WRs in each category.

Paired with one of the best QBs in the league, Coleman has a path to a true breakout. That breakout is worth a dart throw at his cheap 11th-round ADP.

Unlock Your Potential With This Draft Tool

The value of each player varies wildly depending on your league's unique rules and scoring system.

The best way to attack this process is to utilize our dynamic Draft War Room.

Get a custom cheat sheet specific to your fantasy league and scoring right now!

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.