Is 2026 the Year to Go All-In on WRs?

Did Justin Jefferson burn you last year? You might be tempted to go RB-or-bust to open this year’s draft, but that rigid plan could burn you again.

As our RB strategy preview pointed out, 300-carry backs spiked over the last two years: six in 2024 and four in 2025. The six in 2024 were the most since 2010.

But should that push you away from WRs early, or is 2026 the year they reclaim control?

The Per-Game Edge: Smarter WR Evaluation

If you judge last season primarily by full-season fantasy totals, you're making a common mistake.

For example, ranking 20th in fantasy points across just 10 games is more impressive than ranking 11th across all 17. That's why per-game stats matter more than full-season totals. (You can find fantasy points per game listed on our historical stats pages.)

According to Sharp Football, per-game stats correlate more strongly year over year with WR fantasy points than season totals do, with specific per-game metrics proving most predictive. 

The Stats That Actually Matter for WRs

The metrics that have the highest year-over-year correlation to fantasy points for WRs are:

• Targets per game
• Receptions per game
• Receiving yards per game

Eight of the top 10 WRs in fantasy points per game last year ranked among the top 10 in targets per game (among WRs playing 5+ games).

On the other side, TD percentage has the lowest correlation. And receiving TDs per game isn't very predictive.

We can use that to spot undervalued WRs such as Zay Flowers. Here's how he ranked last season among WRs who played 5+ games:

• 23rd in targets per game
• 14th in receptions per game
• 11th in receiving yards per game
• 46th in TDs per game

His low TD total has helped push his ADP outside the top 15 WRs, even though he looks closer to a WR1 in many of the areas that matter most.

This is why we're higher on Flowers in our rankings than the consensus.

Who We See Getting Fed This Year

Head over to our WR rankings, and you will see which WRs we project to earn the most targets this season:

All 12 WRs land among the top 17 in our PPR rankings, looking like good bets to score fantasy points consistently.

Some WRs outside the top 12 also project for more targets than their ADP suggests.

All three rank as values in our ADP Market Index. 

Comparing potential target projections to draft position can be a good way to identify some of the best values at WR.

The Case for Prioritizing WR Early in PPR

Early WR vs. RB decisions often shape your entire draft. At consensus ADP, would you take:

• Rashee Rice (WR10) or Saquon Barkley (RB7) in Round 2?
• Zay Flowers (WR13) or Jeremiyah Love (RB13) in Round 3?
• Davante Adams (WR20) or Travis Etienne (RB17) in Round 4?

Here are our PPR total points projections for each pairing:

• Rashee Rice (283) vs. Saquon Barkley (268)
• Zay Flowers (253) vs. Jeremiyah Love (243)
• Davante Adams (230) vs. Travis Etienne (229) 

All three WRs are projected for more points than their RB counterparts. Going WR over RB early gives you safer fantasy starters to plug into your required WR spots.

Going after those target winners we touted earlier is a great way to accomplish this.

If you lean WR early and find yourself a little thin at RB, these guys can deliver fantasy-starter upside at lower prices:

• D’Andre Swift (Round 5)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (Round 6)
• Rico Dowdle (Round 6)

All three should be startable in fantasy lineups from Week 1 and look like good bets to lead their backfields in fantasy points.

Pass on WR Early? Try These Guys

If you pass on WRs early, you can still find appealing targets later in your draft.

High-Ceiling WR Targets for the Middle Rounds

Rounds 6 and 7 can be a good place to chase upside on almost any build. These WRs in that range carry top-25 potential:

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

A lingering foot injury and inconsistent QB play from Caleb Williams made Odunze frustrating last season, but his role stayed fantasy-friendly. He paired a deep target profile with strong red-zone usage and ranked third among WRs in fantasy points over the first four weeks.

D.J. Moore's departure creates room for more volume in 2026, although Williams' development and target competition from Luther Burden and Colston Loveland add risk.

Odunze carries a wide range of potential outcomes but is an appealing value at his WR3-level price tag.

D.J. Moore, Buffalo Bills

The move from Chicago to Buffalo gives Moore a QB upgrade and WR2 fantasy upside. But he’s coming off a disappointing 2025 and will need to bounce back to reach that ceiling.

If he doesn’t, he could struggle for WR3 value in a spread-the-wealth Bills passing game.

We’re ultimately treating Moore as a fine WR3 target in drafts with a wide range of potential outcomes.

Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars

Washington was Jacksonville's most efficient WR in 2025 and ranked 16th among WRs in PPR points per game after Travis Hunter went down in Week 7.

Washington enters 2026 with a chance to claim the top receiver role, especially with Hunter set to play more defense than he did last season and working primarily outside when he’s been on offense.

Cheap WRs Who Could Lead Their Teams

Wanna really annoy your league mates? Snag a cheap WR with a path to heavy targets and weekly difference-maker upside.

Target WRs on teams with offensive questions. An iffy QB, uncertain pass-run split, or unclear WR depth chart can scare off drafters and create opportunity for you.

Grab a modestly priced WR in that kind of situation, as long as he has a path to leading his team in targets. You might not need him as an early-season starter, but he could quickly earn a regular spot in your lineup.

Here are a few candidates:

Michael Pittman Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers (mid-Round 7 ADP) 

Pittman looks like a solid bet for WR3-level returns in PPR, with upside into the low-WR2 range if he grabs a target edge over DK Metcalf. But the veteran’s short-range game, limited after-catch juice, and just-OK offensive surroundings make him unexciting. 

Consider Pittman a decent “floor” pick in WR4 range if you’ve taken some risks at the position earlier. Just don’t expect him to carry your season.

Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars  (late Round 7)

Meyers’ steady scoring carried over from a poor Raiders offense to his half-season with Jacksonville, which then showed its commitment with a $20 million-a-year extension. He should keep a strong role in a high-upside offense, giving him steal potential at ADP.

Why League Format Should Shape Your WR Strategy

One of our core fantasy tenets is simple: Know your league's rules, because not everyone fully understands how format changes player values and optimal draft strategy.

Check your starting lineups before the draft starts.

Does your league start three WRs plus a flex in PPR?

That obviously increases WR value and likely means you’ll want to try to start four of them on a weekly basis.

That, in turn, makes WRs more attractive early in your draft. But it also increases the chance that multiple league mates will also be attacking WR early. Beware of this factor as you go, and make sure you’re not drafting like everyone else.

Maybe you've got two flex positions?

That extra flex can be ANOTHER WR in your starting lineup. In PPR, filling those flexes with highly targeted players can give a weekly advantage.

Start only two WRs?

You still might want to start your draft with a high-level wideout, but this format spreads the WR value much more evenly throughout the league. So you might gain an advantage from targeting other positions while your league mates chase early-round wideouts.

Does your league use non-PPR scoring?

A non-PPR league downplays the importance of WR position (and pass-catching RBs). RBs fly off the board early, and you don’t want to be caught without them.

Targets -- and receptions -- matter less here, but they still matter. Because the wideouts who consistently get targeted at high rates still tend to be the better bets for reliable yardage.

And we know TDs are unpredictable, so beware of chasing last year’s high TD-rate WRs.

Ultimately, the best strategy is to stay flexible as the draft unfolds. Draft War Room is built for that, using your league's lineup and scoring settings to constantly re-evaluate player values across positions as the draft develops.

Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans

Higgins quietly posted strong efficiency numbers as a 2025 rookie despite the lack of overall fantasy production.

That, plus some uncertainty in Houston’s WR room, makes Higgins an intriguing sleeper candidate heading into Year 2.

Higgins’ rookie sample wasn’t huge, but the efficiency metrics were impressive.

Among 15 rookie WRs with at least 30 targets last season, Higgins ranked:

• fifth in targets per route
• tied for fourth in yards per route
• third in Pro Football Focus receiving grade 

Those are the types of efficiency numbers that often precede a Year 2 breakout.

That efficiency makes Higgins a later round target who could certainly outperform his ADP.

Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks could have viewed Shaheed as a short-term rental, but they spent significant draft capital and money to keep him.

Seattle first gave up fourth- and fifth-round picks to acquire him last year. Then, in March, the Seahawks signed Shaheed to a three-year, $51 million extension.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is locked in as the top dog in Seattle’s passing game. But there’s a clear path for Shaheed to overtake Cooper Kupp for the No. 2 WR job.

Kupp turned 33 in June and is coming off career lows in receiving yards per game (37.1) and yards per route (1.40). He finished just 52nd among qualifying WRs in yards per route.

That is ripe for Shaheed to take over Kupp’s No. 2 WR role.

That opportunity, combined with the Seahawks' love for Shaheed, makes him an interesting late-round target.

Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

An August neck injury torpedoed McMillan’s 2025 season.

But he was an enticing prospect coming out of Washington and flashed as a 2024 rookie.

A chance for a much bigger role this season makes McMillan an appealing target in fantasy drafts.

McMillan showed promise early in his NFL career.

He won the No. 3 WR job behind Evans and Godwin as a 2024 rookie and finished that season with a 37-461-8 line across 13 games. Those 8 TDs ranked second on the team, trailing only Evans, and tied for 12th among WRs league wide.

Unlock Your Potential With This Draft Tool

The value of each player varies wildly depending on your league's unique rules and scoring system.

The best way to attack this process is to utilize our dynamic Draft War Room.

Get a custom cheat sheet specific to your fantasy league and scoring right now!