Houston Texans Fantasy Forecast: Can C.J. Stroud and Co. Bounce Back?

  

 

Houston Texans 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

 

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Nick Caley replaces OC Bobby Slowik

 

C.J. Stroud

Bottom Line: 

Stroud followed his QB9 fantasy finish as a rookie with a disappointing QB18 finish last year. He’ll be working with a revamped WR corps under a new play caller this season. But Houston’s offensive line remains a big concern. There’s some bounce-back potential here, but Stroud should only be drafted as a QB2.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Stroud was one of the bigger disappointments at QB last year, finishing QB18 in total fantasy points and 20th in points per game — after being picked as a top-eight QB in most drafts.

If we omit the meaningless Week 18 game that Stroud left early … he sinks to 21st in points per game.

Stroud was barely usable in 1-QB leagues, finishing as a top-12 QB in just three of 16 full outings. And two of those came in the season’s first four weeks. Stroud ranked QB18 or worse in 9 of his final 12 full games.

Usage & Role

Stroud didn’t hurt for volume or opportunity last year. He ranked 11th league-wide in total pass attempts (532), 16th in red-zone attempts (59), and 16th in throws into the end zone (30).

He finished 15th among QBs in expected fantasy points per game at 17.2 — but averaged just 14.7 points per game. That -2.5 differential was the second worst (behind only Daniel Jones) among QBs with 300+ attempts.

Efficiency Metrics

Stroud was below average in most efficiency metrics last year. Among 28 QBs with 300+ attempts, he ranked:

• 22nd in completion rate
• 18th in yards per attempt
• 20th in adjusted yards per attempt
• 24th in TD rate
• 23rd in passer rating
• 23rd in success rate

Stroud ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade, though, suggesting that his film was at least a little better than the production and efficiency.

Offensive Context

The 2024 Texans were a pass-leaning offense that played with average pace. They ranked:

• 15th in plays
• 22nd in pace (seconds per snap)
• 9th in pass rate
• 10th in neutral pass rate
• 6th in pass rate over expected
• 11th in pass attempts

Stroud opened the season with one of the league’s best WR trios in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. Those three wound up playing just three full games together (the first three weeks of the season).

Collins hurt a hamstring in Week 5 and missed the next five games. Diggs suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 8. Dell missed Week 4 with a chest injury and then went down with a multi-ligament knee injury in Week 16.

WRs John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson played bigger roles than expected in the passing game.

Stroud also played behind a bad offensive line last year. Houston ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Stroud took the league’s second-most sacks (52) and had the seventh-highest sack rate (8.9%)

Historical Production & Trends

Stroud’s disappointing 2024 followed an awesome 2023 rookie campaign. He finished ninth among QBs in total fantasy points and 13th in points per game. Stroud was a top-12 scorer in eight of 15 games.

He averaged 18.3 expected fantasy points per game in 2023 — and outkicked it with 19.1 actual points per game. Stroud was much more efficient as a rookie:

• 63.9% completion rate (vs. 63.2% last year)
• 8.2 yards per attempt (vs. 7.0)
• 4.6% TD rate (vs. 3.8%)

Stroud’s 79.6 Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2023 ranked 14th among 29 qualifiers.

Injury History

Stroud was healthy throughout the 2024 season. He missed two games in 2023 with a concussion and missed one game with a shoulder injury at Ohio State in 2021.

2025 Expectations

Supporting Cast

There’s been a lot of turnover in Houston’s WR corps. Dell will likely miss the 2025 season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. Diggs left for New England in free agency.

That duo will be replaced by some combination of WRs Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel.

The Texans sent a 2026 seventh-round pick to Jacksonville for Kirk in March. The Jaguars had planned to release Kirk after he averaged 47.4 yards across eight games last year, missing the final nine with a fractured collarbone. Kirk had averaged 57+ yards per game in his previous three seasons and turns just 29 in November. There’s some bounce-back potential here, although Kirk has never been a difference-maker.

Higgins is the more exciting addition. The 6’4, 214-pounder is a physical WR with sneaky athleticism. He’s drawn comparisons to new teammate Nico Collins. Higgins is coming off a 1,183-yard 2024 season at Iowa State and figures to start on the outside opposite Collins right away.

Noel out-produced Higgins at Iowa State last year, going for 1,194 yards on 80 receptions. He’s undersized at 5’10, 194 pounds but is an explosive athlete with sub-4.4 speed. He projects as a primary slot receiver as a pro and could push Kirk for playing time as early as this year.

Most importantly, Collins returns as one of the league’s top WRs. He’s averaged 85.3 yards per game over the last two seasons, with a 71.2% catch rate and 15.6 yards per catch. Collins’ 11.1 yards per target across the last two years ranks second among 82 WRs with 100+ targets.

This WR corps doesn’t have the upside that last year’s did — but hopefully it can deliver a healthier season.

Houston’s offensive line remains a major question mark heading into 2025. Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

This unit remains worrisome, with the downside to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

He’s also expected to give Stroud more freedom to change plays at the line of scrimmage.

"Taking control and being a little more pre-snap, having tools to put my guys in the best position,” Stroud said in April. “He is all about me taking full ownership, running the show, and that's what I want. So, it's really been really cool just to see that he's bought into me.”

 

Joe Mixon

Bottom Line:

Mixon is coming off a RB10 finish in PPR points per game — his sixth top-12 finish in eight NFL seasons. There’s some risk of decline for the 29-year-old in 2025. But Mixon is set up to see big volume again, making him a nice value pick in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

A healthy Mixon was awesome for fantasy players last year.

He finished 17th among RBs in total PPR points; 15th in half-PPR. But he jumps to 10th in PPR points per game and ninth in half-PPR. And if we omit Weeks 2 and 18 when Mixon left early, he climbs to fifth in PPR points per game and fourth in half-PPR.

Mixon finished as a top-24 PPR RB in all but three of his 12 full games. That included six top-five finishes. Only Saquon Barkley had more!

Usage & Role

Mixon’s production was fueled mainly by strong usage. His 65% snap rate through Week 17 ranked 10th among RBs. And, if we just look at his 12 full games, he averaged:

• 19.3 carries per game
• 3.8 targets per game

Mixon drew 73.3% of Texans carries in those 12 outings. Only RB Kyren Williams had a bigger carry share on the season. Mixon’s 12.0% target share in his full games was a top-20 mark among RBs.

He also dominated goal-line carries, getting all 14 of Houston’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line.

Mixon’s 18.6 expected PPR points per game in his 12 full outings ranked second among RBs, behind only Alvin Kamara’s 19.8.

Efficiency Metrics

Mixon’s efficiency was not nearly as impressive as the volume. He averaged a slightly below average 4.1 yards per carry. And, among 47 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 19th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
• 29th in yards after contact per attempt
• 24th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Mixon was better in the passing game. He caught a career-low 69.2% of his targets but averaged 8.6 yards per catch. He ranked 16th in yards per route and 18th in PFF receiving grade among 37 qualifying RBs.

Offensive Context

Mixon’s big 2024 season came in spite of a disappointing year from Houston’s offense. QB C.J. Stroud took a step back, WRs Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell all missed time, and the Texans finished 22nd in total yards and 19th in points.

The offensive line didn’t do Mixon any favors, either. It ranked:

• 24th in Adjusted Line Yards
• 31st in ESPN run block win rate
• 27th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades.

Historical Production & Trends

Mixon is no stranger to RB1 production. Here are his career finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2017 - 32nd
• 2018 - 9th
• 2019 - 21st
• 2020 - 11th
• 2021 - 6th
• 2022 - 6th
• 2023 - 12th

Injury History

Mixon sprained an ankle in Week 2 last year and missed the next three games. He’s missed time in five of eight NFL seasons with knee, foot, and ankle injuries, plus two concussions.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Texans did not add to their backfield in free agency but made a surprisingly aggressive move in the draft. They traded the 179th overall pick of this year’s draft and a 2026 third-round pick to move up to 116th overall for RB Woody Marks.

Marks is one of the most accomplished pass-catching backs in the 2025 class, racking up 261 catches over five college seasons. His rushing profile is less impressive, though. Marks never reached 200 carries in a season and averaged a mediocre (for college) 5.0 yards per carry. He ranked 18th in 2024 PFF rushing grade among the 31 RBs at this year’s Combine.

Marks does not look like a significant threat to Mixon’s rushing volume. He could siphon some work in the passing game, but we’ll keep an eye on the rookie’s progress throughout the summer.

With the underwhelming Dameon Pierce joining Marks as backfield depth, Mixon is a good bet to handle another big workload in 2025.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He’ll hopefully get a healthier season from WR Nico Collins, who missed five games with a hamstring injury.

The rest of the WR corps is revamped, with Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel replacing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, who’s expected to miss the 2025 season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. We’ll see how rookies Higgins and Noel settle in, but a slow start could mean more reliance on Mixon.

The offensive line remains a concern in Houston. Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

This still looks like a bottom-10 unit, with the downside to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Age is the biggest worry with Mixon heading into 2025. He turns 29 in July — an age at which our aging-curve research says to expect 70% of peak production. That’s down from 80% at age-28.

Mixon’s overall numbers showed no signs of decline last year. His 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt was actually his best mark since 2019. His 2.92 yards after contact per attempt was his best since 2021.

But Mixon’s numbers tailed off over the second half of the season. Check out the splits:

• Weeks 1-9
  • 3.32 yards after contact per attempt
  • 0.18 missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 78.5 PFF rushing grade
• Weeks 10-18
  • 2.50 yards after contact per attempt
  • 0.13 missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 64.4 PFF rushing grade

Mixon bounced back in Houston’s two playoff games, though, totaling 194 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry. He averaged 2.86 yards after contact per attempt and 0.19 missed tackles forced per attempt.

 

Woody Marks

Bottom Line:

Marks is worth monitoring after the Texans made an aggressive trade to move up and take him in the fourth round of this spring’s draft. He’s an underwhelming prospect, though, and Joe Mixon will likely remain Houston’s clear lead back. Marks is just a late-round dart throw.

2024 Summary

College Production

Marks enters the NFL with an impressive resume in terms of raw college receiving production. He totaled 261 catches across five seasons, with 40+ catches in four of his five campaigns.

Marks led Mississippi State with 60 grabs as a true freshman in 2020 and ranked second on the team with a whopping 83 catches in 2021. Marks again ranked second on the Bulldogs with 48 receptions in 2022 before dipping to 23 catches in an injury-shortened 2023. He transferred to USC this past year, and his receiving acumen followed him west. Marks tied for second on the Trojans with 47 grabs.

Efficiency Metrics

But a deeper dive reveals plenty of warts in Marks’ profile.

While the receiving volume was strong, the efficiency was middling. Marks averaged just 5.9 yards per catch for his career. None of his 261 catches went for more than 33 yards — and only two went for more than 20.

He averaged a strong 9.0 yards per catch in his final college season but didn’t top 7.3 in any of his first four.

Here are Marks’ ranks in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among RBs with 30+ targets:

• 2020 - 19th out of 24
• 2021 - 12th out of 45
• 2022 - 31st out of 48
• 2023 - 4th out of 48
• 2024 - 17th out of 55

Good, but not dominant.

Marks’ rushing profile is even less exciting. He never topped 121 carries in any of his four seasons at Mississippi State, averaging 9.1 carries per game. Marks handled between 30% and 39% of the Bulldogs’ total carries in all four seasons. And he averaged a subpar (for college) 4.6 yards per carry.

2024 brought career highs for Marks at USC: 198 carries and 1,133 yards on 5.7 yards per carry. He remained in a timeshare, though, taking 55% of the team’s total rush attempts. And his advanced metrics were not good.

Among 31 RBs at the Combine, Marks ranked:

• 27th in yards after contact per attempt
• 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 14th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 18th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Marks also disappointed at the Combine, clocking a 4.54-second 40 time at 207 pounds for a 38th percentile Speed Score. He registered a 6.66 Relative Athletic Score — 17th among 26 RBs who tested at the Combine.

Injury History

Marks only missed three games in his college career, with a hamstring injury in November 2023.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Despite the concerns highlighted above, the Texans made an aggressive move to secure Marks. They sent the 179th overall pick of this year’s draft and a 2026 third-round pick to the Dolphins to move up and take Marks at 116th overall.

That might point to a real role on offense for Marks this season. Houston returns RB Joe Mixon, who was a workhorse last year, averaging 19.3 carries and 3.8 targets per game across 12 full outings. But he turns 29 in July and has a lengthy injury history, so it’d make sense for the Texans to scale back his workload in 2025.

Houston made no other additions to the backfield this offseason and returns RB Dameon Pierce, who averaged only 3.6 carries and 0.4 targets per game last year.

Marks has a good chance to beat out Pierce for the No. 2 RB job this summer.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He’ll hopefully get a healthier season from WR Nico Collins, who missed five games with a hamstring injury.

The offensive line is the biggest concern in Houston. Last year’s unit ranked bottom nine in Adjusted Line Yards, ESPN run block win rate, and Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades.

Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

This still looks like a bottom-10 unit, with the downside to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

That’s at least less of a concern for a RB like Marks, who will derive much of his fantasy value from the passing game.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

Production & Efficiency Trends

What should we expect from Marks this season based on draft capital? The range of outcomes is wide.

21 RBs were drafted between picks 96 and 136 over the previous five drafts (within 20 picks in either direction of Marks). 

• Three of those 21 averaged 11+ PPR points per game as rookies, led by Bucky Irving’s 14.4 last year. 
• But nine of the 21 scored fewer than 2.1 points per game. 
• And only six reached 7 points per game, which is around RB50 level.

 

Nico Collins

Bottom Line:

Collins has scored as a top-10 WR in PPR points per game in two straight seasons. He’s seen strong volume and posted elite efficiency metrics. Just hitting his prime at 26 years old, he’s a safe bet for another top-10 finish in 2025.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Collins tallied 68 catches for 1,006 yards and seven TDs across 12 games last year. He finished 10th among WRs in PPR points per game. If we omit Week 5 when he left with a hamstring injury and Week 18 when he was pulled early, Collins climbs to eighth in PPR points per game.

His volume and production wasn’t quite as strong after that Week 5 hamstring injury. Here are the splits:

Four games pre-injury:

• 10.8 targets
• 7.5 catches
• 122 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• WR3 in PPR points per game

Six games post-injury:

• 8.2 targets
• 5.2 catches
• 67 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• WR25 in PPR points per game.

Usage & Role

Collins operated as Houston’s clear No. 1 WR when healthy last year. He averaged 9.2 targets on a 26.3% share in his 10 full games. Only 14 WRs had a bigger target share.

Collins’ 15.9 expected PPR points per game ranked 10th among WRs.

Efficiency Metrics

Collins reeled in 68.7% of his targets and averaged 14.8 yards per catch last year. His 10.2 yards per target ranked eighth among 89 WRs with 50+ targets. Collins ranked second in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and third in yards per route (2.87).

Collins is just one of four WRs to average 2.5+ yards per route in both of the last two seasons (joining Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown).

Offensive Context

Collins’ strong 2024 came despite a downturn from QB C.J. Stroud and Houston’s offense.

The Texans went from 13th in points, 12th in total yards, and seventh in passing yards in 2023 to 19th in points, 22nd in total yards, and 21st in passing yards last year.

Historical Production & Trends

Collins broke out in 2023, posting an 80-1,297-8 line in 15 games and ranking eighth among WRs in PPR points per game. He averaged 7.3 targets per game on a 21.1% target share. Collins’ 11.9 yards per target and 3.10 yards per route were both second-best among 80 qualifying WRs.

Collins’ 17.4 PPR points per game over the past two seasons rank eighth among all WRs.

Injury History

Collins has missed time in all four of his NFL seasons.

• 2021: three games with a shoulder injury
• 2022: two games with a groin injury, five games with a foot injury
• 2023: one game with a hamstring injury, one game with a calf injury
• 2024: five games with a hamstring injury

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Collins finds himself in a new-look Texans WR room heading into 2025. WR Stefon Diggs left for New England in free agency, while WR Tank Dell will likely miss the entire season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. 

That duo will be replaced by some combination of WRs Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel.

The Texans sent a 2026 seventh-round pick to Jacksonville for Kirk in March. He’s coming off a disappointing, injury-shortened season and has reached 1,000 yards in just one of seven NFL seasons.

Higgins is the more exciting addition. The 6’4, 214-pounder is a physical WR with sneaky athleticism who has actually drawn comparisons to Collins. Higgins is coming off a 1,183-yard 2024 season at Iowa State and figures to start on the outside opposite Collins right away.

Noel out-produced Higgins at Iowa State last year, going for 1,194 yards on 80 receptions. He’s undersized at 5’10, 194 pounds but is an explosive athlete with sub-4.4 speed. He projects as a primary slot receiver as a pro and could push Kirk for playing time as early as this year.

Overall, it’s a less proven WR corps than last year’s version. That gives Collins the upside to see an even bigger target share in 2025.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He sank from 8.2 yards per attempt as a rookie to 7.0 last year.

We’re optimistic that he’ll be better in 2025, although he’ll need to get better offensive line play. Last year’s unit ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

The offensive line is the biggest worry for the Texans and Collins heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

But expect Collins to remain the focal point of this passing game.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Collins turned just 26 in March, putting him in his prime seasons of production. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs tend to peak at age 25 or 26.

 

Christian Kirk

Bottom Line:

Kirk was traded in March to Houston, where he’s the early favorite for the starting slot job. He’ll need to fend off third-round rookie Jaylin Noel, though. And even if Kirk wins the role, he’ll be tough to like as more than a WR4. He’s finished as a top-30 WR in PPR points per game in just one of seven NFL seasons.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Kirk suffered a season-ending collarbone fracture late in Week 8 last year.

He totaled 27 catches for 379 yards and one TD in his eight outings, ranking 50th among WRs in total PPR points over that span.

Kirk finished as a top-24 PPR WR in just two of his eight games. He ranked outside the top 50 eight times.

Usage & Role

Kirk led the Jaguars with a 78% route rate across the first eight weeks of last season. His 47 targets ranked second behind Brian Thomas Jr. and were an 18.7% share. That ranked 44th among WRs league-wide.

Kirk sat 43rd among WRs in expected PPR points per game through Week 8.

Efficiency Metrics

Kirk registered a career-high 13.7-yard average target depth last year. That helped him to a career-best 14.0 yards per catch — but his 57.4% catch rate was a career low.

Kirk’s 8.1 yards per target was a tad below his career average and ranked 54th among 106 qualifying WRs. Kirk finished 45th in yards per route (1.72) and 64th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

The Jaguars’ offense was not very good last year, ranking 25th in total yards and 26th in points. They finished 24th in passing yards per game (204.5) and 28th in passing TDs per game (1.12).

The passing production was a bit better with a healthy QB Trevor Lawrence during Kirk’s eight games. Jacksonville averaged 213.8 yards and 1.38 TDs over that stretch — although those marks would have ranked just 19th and 13th over the course of the season.

Historical Production & Trends

Kirk’s 47.4 receiving yards per game last year were his fewest since 2020. He topped 57 in each of the previous three seasons, including 65+ in both 2022 and 2023.

Still, Kirk has never ranked higher than 20th among WRs in PPR points per game and has only once finished better than 32nd. Here are his finishes by season:

• 2018: 54th
• 2019: 34th
• 2020: 58th
• 2021: 38th
• 2022: 20th
• 2023: 32nd
• 2024: 68th

Injury History

Kirk has missed time with injury in five of seven NFL seasons.

• 2018: broken foot
• 2019: sprained ankle
• 2020: groin injury
• 2023: groin injury
• 2024: fractured collarbone

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Kirk was traded to the Texans in March. The Jaguars reportedly planned to release him, but Houston stepped in and sent a 2026 seventh-round pick to Jacksonville to secure Kirk. He’ll count just $4.8 million against the 2025 salary cap and become a free agent in 2026.

None of that guarantees Kirk a starting job in a remade Texans WR corps. Nico Collins returns as the alpha. But Stefon Diggs left for New England in free agency, and Tank Dell will likely miss the entire season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. 

Kirk is joined by rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. The 6’4, 214-pound Higgins — selected 34th overall — is a strong candidate to start on the outside across from Collins. That could leave Kirk to fend off Noel for primary slot duties.

Noel, who went in Round 3 of this spring’s draft, is undersized at 5’10, 194 pounds. But he’s an explosive athlete with sub-4.4 speed. Noel out-produced Higgins at Iowa State last year, going for 1,194 yards on 80 receptions.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He sank from 8.2 yards per attempt as a rookie to 7.0 last year.

We’re optimistic that he’ll be better in 2025, although he’ll need to get better offensive line play. Last year’s unit ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

The offensive line is the biggest worry for the Texans heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets. That’d be good news for Kirk if he wins the slot job.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Kirk will turn 29 in November, putting him well past prime age for WRs. Our research shows that WRs produce around 90% of their peak at age-29.

Kirk’s Pro Football Focus receiving grade has declined in each of the last two seasons. Last year’s 1.72 yards per route was his lowest mark since 2020.

 

Jayden Higgins

Bottom Line:

Higgins turned in two strong seasons at Iowa State in terms of raw production and efficiency. The Texans nabbed him with the 34th overall pick of this spring’s draft, giving him a good chance to win the starting outside WR job opposite Nico Collins. While he won’t lead the team in targets, Higgins has the potential to emerge as the No. 2 WR and a 2025 fantasy factor.

2024 Summary

College Production

An unheralded recruit out of high school, Higgins started his college career at Eastern Kentucky. He finished third on the team with 394 receiving yards as a true freshman and then ranked second in yards (747) and first in TDs (10) as a sophomore.

Higgins transferred to Iowa State ahead of the 2023 season and proceeded to tally new career highs with 53 catches, 983 yards, and six TDs. The yardage led the team, while the catches and TDs ranked second to fellow 2025 rookie WR Jaylin Noel (who’d been on the team for three years).

Then Higgins exploded this past year: 87 catches, 1,183 yards, and nine TDs on 129 targets (30.6% share). He beat Noel in catches, yards, and TDs per game. And he ranked top seven in the nation in total catches and receiving yards.

Efficiency Metrics

Higgins improved his Pro Football Focus receiving grade across all four college seasons. His 90.5 grade last year was tops among all 260 WRs with 50+ targets. 

Higgins also impressed in terms of yards per route. His 3.00 in 2023 ranked 16th among 287 qualifying WRs. Higgins sank a bit to 2.66 yards per route last year, but that was still good for 27th — two spots ahead of Noel.

Athleticism

Higgins boosted his stock by earning a 9.63 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine, putting him in the 96th percentile of all WRs since 1987.

The 6’4, 214-pounder ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash with a 39-inch vertical and 128-inch broad. The vertical and broad were both 85th percentile marks for the position.

Injury History

Higgins did not miss any games with injury over his four college seasons.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Higgins joins a remade WR corps in Houston. Nico Collins returns as the alpha. But Stefon Diggs left for New England in free agency, and Tank Dell will likely miss the entire season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. 

Higgins is joined by veteran Christian Kirk and former college teammate Jaylin Noel. Those guys might just be competing for slot duties, though. Kirk has run 56% of his NFL routes from the slot, including 71+% in each of the last four seasons. Noel had a 73% slot rate over his four years at Iowa State and never dipped below 66%.

Higgins, meanwhile, has the size and strength to win on the outside as a pro. 71% of his routes at Iowa State came from the outside. 

Consider Higgins the favorite to win the starting outside WR job opposite Collins.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He sank from 8.2 yards per attempt as a rookie to 7.0 last year.

We’re optimistic that he’ll be better in 2025, although he’ll need to get better offensive line play. Last year’s unit ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

The offensive line is the biggest worry for the Texans heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Houston’s passing game was a major disappointment last year. But flip back to 2023 and you’ll find it supporting a pair of top-12 WR in PPR points per game in Collins and Dell.

Don’t expect top-12 production from Higgins this season. But if Stroud and the Texans bounce back, there’s room for Higgins to be fantasy relevant if he emerges as the clear No. 2 WR.

 

Dalton Schultz

Bottom Line:

Schultz’s streak of three straight top-11 PPR finishes was snapped last year. He plummeted to 31st in points per game. Turnover in Houston’s WR corps gives him some potential to bounce back in 2025. But the 29-year-old is not a high-upside fantasy target. Consider Schultz a low-end TE2.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Schultz posted a 53-532-2 line across 17 games last season. He finished 20th among TEs in total PPR points and 31st in points per game. Schultz scored as a top-12 PPR TE in only three of his 17 outings.

The lack of TDs hurt. Schultz ranked among the top-16 TEs in catches and yards. But his two scores tied for 24th at the position.

Usage & Role

Schultz played 78% of Houston’s offensive snaps and ran a route on 77% of pass plays last year. That latter mark ranked 12th among TEs.

Schultz’s 85 targets were 11th-most at the position. But his 5.0 targets per game ranked 17th. And his 14.9% target share ranked 18th.

Schultz averaged 8.1 expected PPR points per game, which left him just 20th among TEs.

Efficiency Metrics

Schultz averaged 10.0 yards per catch last year — just below his career average of 10.2.

But his 62.4% catch rate was the second-worst mark of his career. It left him with 6.3 yards per target, which was also his second-worst mark and ranked 29th among 36 TEs with 40+ targets in 2024.

Schultz was even worse in terms of yards per route, ranking 32nd among those 36 TEs. He finished 30th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

The Texans offense disappointed last year, finishing 19th in points, 22nd in total yards, and 21st in passing yards.

They opened the season with a strong WR trio in Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. But those three wound up playing just three full games together (the first three weeks of the season).

Schultz averaged 3.7 targets per game on a 9.8% share in those first three games vs. 5.3 targets per game on a 16.2% share the rest of the way.

Historical Production & Trends

Schultz’s 7.0 PPR points per game last season were his fewest since 2019, his second year in the league. 

He ranked 11th among TEs with 10.2 points per game in his first season with Houston in 2023. He saw more targets per game (5.9), had a higher target share (17.2%), and was more efficient (1.47 yards per route) that year than he was in 2024. 

Prior to that, Schultz turned in TE18, TE5, and TE11 finishes in PPR points per game the previous three seasons in Dallas.

Injury History

Schultz missed two games with a hamstring injury in 2023 and two games with a knee injury in 2022.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Schultz returns to Houston for the second season of his three-year, $36 million deal and should at least open the season as the clear lead TE.

The Texans only added seventh-round rookie Luke Lachey to the TE room this offseason. Brevin Jordan returns after going down with a torn ACL last September. And Irv Smith remains on the roster.

Second-year TE Cade Stover is the biggest threat to Schultz’s role. The 2024 fourth-rounder caught just 15 balls as a rookie but earned more playing time as the season wore on. He topped a 30% route rate in five of his final seven games after doing so in just two of his first nine.

Stover’s progress will be worth monitoring throughout the summer.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He’ll hopefully get a healthier season from WR Nico Collins, who missed five games with a hamstring injury.

He’ll be working with a revamped WR corps, with Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel replacing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, who’s expected to miss the 2025 season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury. WR Nico Collins returns as the alpha. 

It’s a more unproven group than last year’s, giving Schultz some potential for more targets — especially early in the season while rookies Higgins and Noel settle in.

The offensive line remains the biggest concern in Houston. Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

This still looks like a bottom-10 unit, with the downside to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022, mostly working under OC Josh McDaniels. Caley was TEs coach for six of those eight seasons in New England.

We’ll see if that experience with the position means Caley will feature Schultz in his passing game — although we’re not betting on it considering the talent at WR.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Schultz is coming off his worst season by most metrics since 2019 and will play the 2024 campaign at 29 years old. Our aging-curve research says to expect 86% of peak production from 29-year-old TEs. That sinks to 76% at age-30.

Schultz is likely approaching the age cliff but might still have one serviceable season left in him.