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What Does J.J. McCarthy Mean for Minnesota’s Fantasy Stars?

Minnesota Vikings 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• RB Jordan Mason
• C Ryan Kelly
• LG Donovan Jackson
• RG Will Fries
• QB Sam Howell
• WR Rondale Moore
• LT Justin Skule

Key Departures

• QB Sam Darnold
• LT Cam Robinson
• QB Daniel Jones
• QB Nick Mullens
• TE Johnny Mundt

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

JJ McCarthy

Bottom Line: Exciting QB2 on Fantasy-Friendly Offense

McCarthy didn’t play as a rookie due to injury, but he now steps into a fantasy-friendly system with strong weapons and a history of strong passing production. Throw in some sneaky rushing upside, and McCarthy looks like a sleeper QB2 who could be a spot starter based on matchup. 

2024 Summary

From Redshirt Rookie Season to Pass-First Offense

McCarthy enters 2025 with zero live-game reps but will now be asked to step in as the full-time starter from Week 1. 

HC Kevin O’Connell’s offenses have ranked in the top six of passing yards every season since 2022 when he took over. Despite McCarthy’s lack of NFL experience, he will be asked to lead the pass-first offense. 

His play style and college profile suggest he’ll be used both as a pocket passer and a mover outside the structure of the play.

College Metrics Suggest Solid Efficiency and Mobility

With no 2024 NFL stats, McCarthy’s efficiency remains purely speculative.

In college, McCarthy averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt for his career, with more than four times as many TDs (49) as INTs (11). He also ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade in his final season among 178 FBS QBs who dropped back at least 100 times.

He also adds some mobility, rushing for 508 yards and five TDs over his final two college seasons.

O’Connell Consistently Produces Top-Tier Passing Stats

The Vikings have consistently ranked top-6 in pass yards and top-5 in pass TDs in each of the past three seasons under Kevin O’Connell. 

Even with a slight dip in 2024 pass rate (56.6%, 13th), Minnesota still ranked 2nd in expected passing TDs (36.5). 

This system is built for high-volume QB production — especially with elite weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson in place.

Sam Darnold had the third-longest average time to throw in 2024 (3.08 seconds), signaling a strong pass-blocking offensive line that retained its OTs in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.

Meniscus Injury Delayed McCarthy's Debut

McCarthy missed his rookie season due to an August meniscus tear.

He underwent surgery immediately following the injury but had swelling during the recovery process. This required another surgery in November.

He is expected to be fully recovered for the 2025 season.

His only documented college injury is an ankle sprain in 2023. He played through that injury.

2025 Expectations

Coaching Staff Fully Committed to McCarthy

McCarthy is locked in as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.

The Vikings traded for QB Sam Howell during the 2025 NFL Draft to be McCarthy’s backup. Journeyman QB Brett Rypien also joined the Vikings last season, his sixth team in his seven-year career. 

Minnesota remains fully committed to developing McCarthy as the franchise QB. 

Supporting Cast Should Boost QB Production

WR Justin Jefferson returns for his sixth season with the Vikings. He’s been an All Pro in four of his five seasons, including with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold at QB. 

WR Jordan Addison showed consistency in his first two NFL seasons with at least 875 receiving yards and nine TDs in each. His 13.4-yard average target depth in 2024 ranked 16th among WRs with at least 50 targets, giving McCarthy a solid downfield threat.

TE T.J. Hockenson should be fully recovered from his 2023 ACL tear and ready to contribute more in 2025.

The Vikings also added RB Jordan Mason via trade, creating a competent RB duo in Mason and Aaron Jones. 

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024 and they return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

Expect Pass Lean to Continue, Adjusting Slightly to New Starter

Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently leaned pass. In 2022 and 2023, the Vikings boasted a pass rate over 63% and a neutral pass rate of over 61% with Kirk Cousins at the helm 

That dipped in 2024 with Sam Darnold taking over. The Vikings pass rate dropped to 56.6% overall with a neutral pass rate of 58.3%. They ranked 16th in the NFL in pass rate. 

Despite the drop, the Vikings still ranked sixth in pass yards and fifth in pass TDs in 2024.        

The offense will likely adjust based on McCarthy’s development, but the Vikings should still remain near the top half of the league in passing.

Aaron Jones

Bottom Line: Receiving Consistency Creates Weekly RB2 Path

Jones finished as a top-15 RB in total fantasy points in 2024 thanks to consistent volume and passing-game usage. The addition of RB Jordan Mason is a threat to Jones’ rushing volume, but his receiving gives him weekly RB2 upside.

2024 Summary

Spike Weeks Made for Productive 2024

Aaron Jones racked up 1,138 scrimmage yards, finishing 15th among RBs in total PPR points and 20th in points per game.

He notched five top-12 fantasy weeks but also had seven finishes outside the top 24.

Heavy Snap Share and Receiving Work Defined Role

Jones handled a featured workload, finishing with a heavy share of snaps (753) and 62 targets, 8th among RBs. 

He contributed as a receiver out of the backfield, finishing with 51 receptions (8th among RBs) and 408 receiving yards (7th)

He was also used on short-yardage carries. Jones saw 13 carries inside the five-yard line, accounting for 70% of the team’s work in that area.

Rushing Efficiency Declined Across the Board

Jones showed signs of decline as a runner. His 4.5 yards per carry ranked 20th, and his +0.17 rush yards over expected per attempt ranked 24th.

Per Pro Football Focus, Jones ranked outside the top 30 RBs with at least 75 carries in: 

• Yards After Contact Per Attempt (3.00)
• Breakaway Run Rate (19.9%) 
• Elusiveness Rating (51.5). 

He also forced just 0.11 missed tackles per attempt, ranking 52nd among qualifying backs.

Jones Benefited From OL Strength

The Vikings ranked 12th in total yards (5,898) in 2024. They also ranked fifth in passing yards (4,379) and 19th in rushing yards (1,855). 

They had a 56.6% pass rate and 58.3% neutral pass rate. They averaged 62 plays per game, which ranked 13th.

In ESPN’s blocking win rates, Minnesota’s OL ranked second in pass blocking success (70%) and 15th in run blocking success (72%).

Receiving Usage Held Steady

Jones notched his second 1,100 yard rushing season over the past four years. It was also his highest rushing TD total (5) since 2020.

His receiving role remained strong. Jones’ 62 targets were in line with his career average. He posted the second highest receiving yardage total of his career (408).

Minor Ailments Didn’t Derail the Season

Jones avoided major injuries in 2024, playing all 17 games.

He did sustain a hip injury (Week 5), rib injury (Week 10), and leg contusion (Week 17) -- but Jones played through all of those.

He sprained his MCL in 2023, missing three games. He has a long history of lower-body injuries.

Entering his age-30 season with that history, durability remains a concern.

2025 Expectations

New Addition Could Cut Into Carries

Jones projects as the lead back, but the Vikings traded fifth and sixth-round picks to acquire RB Jordan Mason. 

Mason signed a new two-year deal, cementing him as a contributor to the team immediately.

With Jones’ injury history and age, the Vikings may look to move some of the early-down and short-yardage work off his plate and onto Mason’s.

Ty Chandler is expected to remain the third back on the depth chart.

Young QB Could Lead to More Early-Season Ground Game Reliance

Minnesota’s offense remains powered by its passing attack, now led by QB J.J. McCarthy. To ease McCarthy into the starting role, the Vikings could lean on the run game with Jones and Mason early in the season.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked second in the NFL (70%) in 2024. They return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.  Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

Run Rate Ticked Upward in 2024

Kevin O’Connell’s offense ranked 18th in run rate (44.4%), his highest percentage since becoming the HC.

Minnesota ran a near-even split between zone (146 plays) and gap (97 plays) schemes, keeping Jones active in both styles.

Jordan Mason

Bottom Line: Handcuff Upside Carries Inhibiting Draft Cost

Mason flashed elite rushing efficiency in San Francisco last year, but steps into a murkier workload in Minnesota. He’s a high-upside stash behind aging starter Aaron Jones. You'll have to pay for that upside, though. Mason's already going in mid-to-high RB3 range. That price plus the uncertainty of the work split makes him an iffy draft target.

2024 Summary

Early RB1 Weeks Boosted Output

With Christian McCaffrey active for only four games, Mason entered the season as the 49ers’ starter. 

Mason racked up 789 total yards and three TDs over 11 games, finishing 41st among RBs in PPR fantasy points (115.0).

He stormed out of the gate with three top-10 fantasy finishes in his first four games but struggled for relevance the rest of the season with some nagging injuries. 

His 9.6 points per game tied for RB36 due in part to leaving games early with those injuries.

Strong Start Derailed by Injuries

Mason started the season as the lead back, averaging 21 carries per game over the first five.

A shoulder injury in Week 6 limited Mason and allowed rookie Isaac Guerendo to earn a role. Then McCaffrey returned for four games, Week 10-13. The final game in that span not only met the end of McCaffrey's season, but also found a high ankle sprain that would end Mason's year.

Before he went down, Mason earned nine carries inside the 5-yard line (47% of the team total), signaling trust in short-yardage situations.

But he also saw limited passing-down use, earning just 14 targets and registering a poor pass-blocking grade (44.5).

When Given the Ball, Mason Delivered Efficiency

Mason was one of the NFL’s most efficient backs in 2024. 

Among RBs with at least 75 carries, he ranked 6th in yards per carry (5.2), 3rd in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.38), and 7th in breakaway run rate (36.9%). 

His Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating (81.6) ranked 14th, and his 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt ranked 8th. Simply put, he maximized nearly every touch he got.

He Thrived in San Francisco’s Zone Scheme

The 49ers’ elite offensive design and zone-heavy scheme helped Mason thrive when called upon.

He had 110 zone runs vs. 41 gap runs, with a slightly higher yards per carry on zone runs. 

He moves to a Vikings offense that will be a bit more balanced in blocking style, but Mason can still succeed between the tackles.

2024 was Mason’s most productive season as a pro, fueled by big-play rushing. 

He never had a RB1 scoring week before 2024, maxing out with an RB17 finish in 2023. 

Injuries Nagged Before Ending His Season

Mason sprained the A/C joint in his shoulder in Week 6. He wouldn’t miss a game, but it limited Mason in Week 7.

He re-injured the shoulder in Week 8, which limited him for the rest of the season.

Mason then suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 13 that landed him on IR.

2025 Expectations

Mason Likely to Split Work with Aaron Jones -- Somehow

The Vikings basically traded a fifth-round pick to get Mason this offseason. And then they upped his pay with a two-year, $12 million contract (including $7 million guaranteed).

He joins Minnesota as the No. 2 behind Aaron Jones. But Jones turned 30 in December and is coming off career highs in carries and total touches. The Vikings' aggressive moves on Mason suggest they want to lighten Jones' load for 2025.

The new guy -- who outweighs Jones by 15 pounds, according to the team website -- should at least factor into short-yardage situations.

Don't expect incumbent backup Ty Chandler to challenge Mason's role.

Inexperienced QB Could Lead to Early Ground-Game Emphasis

Minnesota’s offense remains powered by its passing attack, now led by QB J.J. McCarthy. To ease McCarthy into the starting role, the Vikings could lean on the run game with Jones and Mason early in the season.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024. They return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

Kevin O’Connell’s offense ranked 18th in run rate (44.4%) last year, his highest percentage since becoming the HC.

Justin Jefferson

Bottom Line: Don’t Shy Away Because of the QB

Jefferson proved QB-proof in 2024, finishing as the WR2 in PPR scoring with Sam Darnold at the helm. He remains a volume-dominant alpha with elite efficiency, despite being paired with an unknown at QB in J.J. McCarthy.

2024 Summary

Elite Production Continued

Jefferson delivered 103 catches for 1,533 yards and 10 TDs across 17 games, finishing second among WRs in both total PPR fantasy points (316.6) and points per game (18.6). 

He posted seven top-10 weekly finishes, including three top-5 finishes. Still, he had five games outside the top-24 WRs.

Jefferson Remained the Focal Point

Jefferson maintained a 28.1% target share across the season, although that dipped to 25.9% over the final eight games (including playoffs). 

He aligned wide 71.3% of the time and in the slot 27.3%, giving Minnesota some flexibility in how they deployed him. 

He drew a 33.7% first-read target share, 15th among WRs with at least 25 targets, highlighting his centrality in the passing game.

Maintained Top-Tier Efficiency Across the Board

Jefferson remained elite by nearly every advanced metric. 

His 2.61 yards per route run ranked 4th among WRs (min. 50 targets), matching his 4th-place PFF receiving grade (90.3). 

He continued to separate well (3.1-yard average separation according to Next Gen Stats) and posted a solid 11.3-yard average depth of target. 

While his yards after catch per reception (4.5) ranked just 27th, he still beat expectations with +0.5 yards after catch above expected.

O’Connell’s Pass-Heavy System Continues to Support High-End WR Output

The Vikings have consistently ranked top-6 in pass yards and top-5 in pass TDs in each of the past three seasons under Kevin O’Connell. 

Even with a slight dip in 2024 pass rate (56.6%, 13th), Minnesota still ranked 2nd in expected passing TDs (36.5). 

The passing rate should remain high enough to support Jefferson’s elite fantasy production.

Target Share and Per-Play Impact Have Climbed Steadily

Jefferson’s 2024 target share (28.1%) marked a slight increase over his 2023 (27.7%) and 2022 (27.4%) marks.

His fantasy points per team pass attempt has also climbed three straight years, from 0.54 to 0.57 to 0.58, highlighting improved per-play impact. 

No Lingering Injury Concerns for 2025

Jefferson left Week 2 with a right quad contusion, but he did not miss any additional weeks.

In 2023, Jefferson dealt with a hamstring injury that cost him seven games. He also suffered a chest bruise that caused him to leave early in Week 14.

No lingering issues appear headed into 2025, and he’s still firmly in his physical prime.

2025 Expectations

Jefferson Faces Minimal Target Competition

Jefferson remains the undisputed No. 1 WR in Minnesota.  

Jordan Addison has been a quality complement, but not a threat to Jefferson’s role.

The Vikings added WR Tai Felton in Round 3 of the NFL Draft and return Jalen Nailor as potential slot options.

They also added Rondale Moore in free agency, but Jefferson is locked into the alpha role.

Another QB Switch Shouldn’t Be a Problem

QB J.J. McCarthy missed all of 2024 with a knee injury but he is locked in as the starting QB. 

The Vikings boast a solid RB duo in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.

TE T.J. Hockenson is another year removed from his ACL tear and should be more effective.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024. They return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

System Stays WR-Friendly

HC Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently leaned pass-heavy. In 2022 and 2023, the Vikings boasted a pass rate over 63% and a neutral pass rate of over 61% with Kirk Cousins at the helm 

That dipped in 2024 with Sam Darnold taking over. The Vikings pass rate dropped to 56.6% overall with a neutral pass rate of 58.3%. They ranked 16th in the NFL in pass rate. 

Despite the drop, the Vikings still ranked sixth in pass yards and fifth in pass TDs in 2024.        

The offense will likely throw enough once again to support Jefferson as an elite WR option.

Jefferson has increased his per-route and per-target efficiency for three straight years, with no signs of slowing down.

Jordan Addison

Bottom Line: TD Dependence Makes Him a Volatile Option

Addison took a step forward in Year 2, improving in nearly every advanced metric and carving out a larger target share down the stretch. But he’s paired with a new QB this year and will always be second fiddle behind Justin Jefferson. Addison has WR3 upside, but his TD dependence makes him inconsistent.

2024 Summary

TD Production Carried 2024

Addison tallied 875 receiving yards and 9 TDs on 63 catches over 15 games, finishing as PPR WR21 in total fantasy points (212.5) and WR25 in points per game (14.2). 

He posted three top-10 weekly finishes but also eight weeks outside the top 24, making him a boom/bust option most of the year. 

Despite modest volume, the strong TD production (tied for 8th among WRs) helped buoy his fantasy value.

Addison Saw Increased Involvement Late

Addison held a 20.0% target share across his 15 games, which climbed to 22.5% over the final eight games, including playoffs. 

He lined up wide 67% of the time and in the slot 32.2%, offering flexibility in Minnesota’s route combinations. 

He was the first read on just 23.1% of pass plays, reflecting a secondary role behind Justin Jefferson.

Year 2 Showed Improvement; Still Ascending?

Addison improved both his PFF receiving grade and yards per route run from his rookie season. His 1.89 yards per route run ranked 29th among WRs with at least 50 targets.  

According to Next Gen Stats, he averaged 13.4 air yards per target in 2024, showcasing some deep threat ability.

Addison’s 3.0 yards of separation and +0.6 YAC over expected showed the ability to get open and create post-catch, even if his yards after catch per reception (3.5) lagged overall, ranking 51st.

Passing Scheme Boosts Scoring Opportunities

The Vikings have consistently ranked top-6 in pass yards and top-5 in pass TDs in each of the past three seasons under HC Kevin O’Connell. 

Even with a slight dip in 2024 pass rate (56.6%, 13th), Minnesota still ranked 2nd in expected passing TDs (36.5).

Addison’s sophomore season built on his promising rookie campaign. 

His target share jumped from 17.1% to 20.0%, with a significant late-season surge. 

His TD production remained sticky year over year, ranking 11th in expected receiving TDs (8.2) after finishing 11th in actual TDs (7.6) the year before.

Ankle Issues Cropped Up Again

Addison missed one game in 2024 after injuring his ankle in Week 1. He also suffered an ankle sprain in August but did not miss any time.

He’s dealt with ankle issues throughout his career, including an injury in his final season at USC and a sprain in 2023.

2025 Expectations

Can't Climb Past No. 2 with Jefferson Around

Addison is locked in as Minnesota’s No. 2 WR opposite Justin Jefferson. 

He should maintain a starting outside role with some slot work mixed in. 

The Vikings bring back WR Jalen Nailor, who caught six TDs last season. 

They also added WR Tai Felton in the third round of the NFL Draft, and Rondale Moore in free agency.

Surrounding Talent Creates a Favorable Setup

QB J.J. McCarthy missed all of 2024 with a knee injury, but he is locked in as the starting QB. 

The Vikings boast a solid RB duo in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.

TE T.J. Hockenson is another year removed from his ACL tear and should be more effective.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024. They return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

Scheme Has Proved Pass-Friendly Since O'Connell Arrived

HC Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently leaned pass-heavy. In 2022 and 2023, the Vikings boasted a pass rate over 63% and a neutral pass rate of over 61% with Kirk Cousins at the helm 

That dipped in 2024 with Sam Darnold taking over. The Vikings pass rate dropped to 56.6% overall with a neutral pass rate of 58.3%. They ranked 16th in the NFL in pass rate. 

Despite the drop, the Vikings still ranked sixth in pass yards and fifth in pass TDs in 2024.

Addison’s year-over-year growth in target share, efficiency, and route volume suggests a rising trajectory. 

He’s now logged back-to-back top-12 TD finishes and improved in metrics like yards per route and receiving grade. 

T.J. Hockenson

Bottom Line: TE1 Ready for More TDs

Hockenson missed the first eight weeks of last season recovering from his torn ACL and MCL. He failed to find the end zone a single time the rest of the way, but his target volume remained strong. He’s a proven TE1 when healthy and will be a key part of Minnesota’s offense, fully healthy for 2025.

2024 Summary

Missed Time, TD Drought Doomed Production

Hockenson played in just 10 games and failed to find the end zone, finishing with 86.5 PPR fantasy points (TE34) and 8.7 points per game (TE19). 

He managed three TE1 finishes, but five of his ten games landed him outside the top 24. 

The lack of TDs and limited late-season usage capped his weekly value, despite steady volume when he played.

Target Share Declined vs. 2023

Hockenson maintained a 16.8% target share over 11 total games (including playoffs), which rose to 17.4% over his final eight. 

That marked a step back from his 23.7% share in 2023 but still kept him inside the top 15 among TEs. 

He remained a featured part of Minnesota’s passing game, ranking 15th among TEs in first-read target share (16.4%).

Reliable Hands and Decent Separation Raised Scoring Floor

Hockenson posted a respectable 70.7% catch rate and averaged 8.7 targeted air yards, with 3.1 yards of average separation.

His yards after catch above expectation (+0.1) was fairly neutral.

Despite the zero-TD season, he remained efficient enough to be a weekly factor, especially after fully recovering from his knee injury.

Minnesota’s Passing Volume Helped

The Vikings have consistently ranked top-6 in pass yards and top-5 in pass TDs in each of the past three seasons under HC Kevin O’Connell. 

Even with a slight dip in 2024 pass rate (56.6%, 13th), Minnesota still ranked 2nd in expected passing TDs (36.5). 

Hockenson’s target share fell from 23.7% in 2023 to 16.8% in 2024, but he still ranked 13th among TEs with at least 25 targets in target share.

His 8.7 PPR fantasy points per game was a significant dip from 14.6 in 2023, but his injury recovery contributed to the dip in production.

Hockenson Finally Beyond Brutal Knee Injury

Hockenson’s 2023 season ended prematurely due to a torn ACL and MCL in Week 16.

He missed the first seven games in 2024.

This was his first significant injury since 2021, when a thumb fracture caused him to miss five games.

2025 Expectations

Expect His Role to Rebound

Once healthy, Hockenson should return to a top-3 role in Minnesota’s passing game, alongside WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. 

No. 2 TE Josh Oliver is back for 2025, and the Vikings drafted TE Gavin Bartholomew in Round 6. 

WR Jalen Nailor returns after scoring six TDs last season.

Don't Expect Big Changes Beyond QB Shift

QB J.J. McCarthy missed all of 2024 with a knee injury, but he is locked in as the starting QB. 

The Vikings boast a solid RB duo in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024. They return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first round pick Donovan Jackson.

Scheme Prioritizes Pass-Catchers

Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently leaned pass-heavy. In 2022 and 2023, the Vikings boasted a pass rate over 63% and a neutral pass rate of over 61% with Kirk Cousins at the helm 

That dipped in 2024 with Sam Darnold taking over. The Vikings pass rate dropped to 56.6% overall with a neutral pass rate of 58.3%. They ranked 16th in the NFL in pass rate. 

Despite the drop, the Vikings still ranked sixth in pass yards and fifth in pass TDs in 2024.

How Do Vikings Fit in the Rankings?

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The video below finds Jared and Matt discussing Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason's split ...

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.