Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

McCaffrey is coming off a dominant 2023 season, leading all RBs in total fantasy points and points per game.

He turned 28 in June but has shown no signs of decline, actually posting career highs in most rushing efficiency metrics last year. The 49ers clearly aren’t worried about his age, handing him a two-year extension this offseason.

McCaffrey returns to a nearly identical situation this season. He’s the clear top RB in fantasy football and should be a top-2 pick in every draft.

What We Learned Last Year

• McCaffrey led all RBs last year with 395.3 total PPR points and 24.7 PPR points per game. (He also led in half-PPR and non-PPR points.)
• The 24.7 PPR points per game were the eighth most from a RB over the last 10 seasons.
• McCaffrey benefitted from awesome usage.
  • He led all RBs with 1,006 offensive snaps and 550 pass routes.
  • McCaffrey ranked fourth among RBs in both carries per game (17.0) and targets per game (5.2).
  • He ranked second among RBs in carries inside the 10-yard line (34) and fourth in carries inside the five (17).
  • He led all RBs with eight targets inside the 10.
  • McCaffrey led all RBs with 20.5 expected PPR points per game.
• McCaffrey exceeded his expected PPR points per game by 4.2 because he remained one of the best RBs in the league.
• He set career highs last year with:
  • 5.4 yards per carry
  • 3.4 yards after contact per attempt
  • 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 65.5 Pro Football Focus elusive rating
  • 90.6 PFF rushing grade
• McCaffrey tied for third among 49 qualifying RBs in PFF rushing grade.
• He ranked second among those 49 RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.
• McCaffrey was also awesome in the passing game. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, he ranked:
  • 14th in catch rate
  • 7th in yards per catch
  • 6th in yards per target
  • 9th in yards per route
  • 2nd in PFF receiving grade

What to Expect in 2024

• McCaffrey is back in San Francisco and even got a two-year contract extension in early June that keeps him with the 49ers through the 2027 season.
• The team clearly isn’t worried about a decline from the 28-year-old. It’s tough to argue with that considering McCaffrey set career highs in most rushing efficiency metrics last year.
• HC Kyle Shanahan suggested in early June that he’d like to lighten McCaffrey’s load.
  • “If he’s just taking the wear and tear with 20 carries and stuff every game — and he’s definitely good enough to do that, and he’s proved he can stay healthy — but you’d like to take some of that off him and give it to other guys also.”
• That’s easier said than done, especially when the 49ers only added fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and undrafted rookie Cody Schrader to the backfield. We’re expecting McCaffrey to again have the most fantasy-friendly role among RBs this season.
• The 49ers return QB Brock Purdy along with WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and TE George Kittle.
• They also return all five starters on the offensive line. Last year’s 49ers ranked:
  • 1st in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades
  • 23rd in ESPN’s run-block win rate
  • 1st in adjusted line yards
• Our Injury Predictor gives McCaffrey a 63.6% chance of injury (21st-highest among RBs) and 3.0 projected games missed (tied for eighth most) this season.