D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Swift should continue to get a strong workload. His contract proves that the Bears consider him to be significantly better than Kahlil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. But Swift will continue to face challenges for touches and hasn’t been a top-shelf guy in efficiency so far. He’s ultimately fine to draft in low-RB2 range but doesn’t look like a potential league-winner.

What We Learned Last Year

• Turns out Swift is capable of staying healthy. After losing 10 games to injury through his first three seasons, Swift appeared in every game of his lone Eagles campaign (except for the meaningless Week 18, when Philly deactivated most starters).
• That produced a career-high 14.3 carries per game. But Swift also declined in most of his efficiency metrics.
  • His yards per carry went to 4.6 after a career-high 5.5 in 2022.
  • Pro Football Focus had his yards after contact per attempt falling from 3.10 to 2.44.
  • Swift’s rush yards over expected per attempt fell from 0.38 to minus-0.29, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
• Those 2023 numbers, however, aligned more closely with Swift’s first two years than his 2022 highs did.
• Swift also put up career lows in targets, receptions per game, and yards per catch in a Philly offense that wasn’t well set up for his receiving production.
  • The Eagles tied for just 16th in the league in RB receptions in 2023. And Kenneth Gainwell tallied 37 targets to Swift’s 49 for the season.
• Swift did, however, seize the backfield lead with a huge Week 2 performance after barely touching the ball as the No. 2 RB in Week 1.
• After the season, the Eagles let him walk in free agency. They acquired him the previous offseason for a 2025 fourth-round pick and a 30-spot move up in the 2023 draft.

What to Expect in 2024

• This year marks (arguably) the most a team has paid to get Swift.
  • He hit Philadelphia via the low-cost trade mentioned above.
  • Detroit drafted him in Round 2 back in 2020.
  • Chicago signed him for $24 million over three years, with $15.3 million of that guaranteed.
• That clearly sets Swift up to lead a backfield he’ll share with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
  • Herbert has rated well in efficiency metrics. But he has also averaged just 8.7 carries and 1.0 receptions per game through three seasons – across two coaching staffs.
  • Johnson led Bears RBs in receiving as a rookie, beating Herbert by 9 targets, 14 receptions, and 75 yards while playing three more games. He trailed Herbert in yards per catch and rushing performance, however.
• The Bears tied for a solid 14th in total RB receptions despite ranking just 27th in total pass attempts.
• Chicago dramatically upgraded the WR corps with veteran Keenan Allen and ninth-overall pick Rome Odunze. That should pull more target share to the group.
• The Bears should also get an upgrade at QB, from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams. But that doesn’t necessarily boost the RB receiving situation.
  • USC’s highest-ranked RB in receptions last season tied for just 10th on the team (with another RB).
  • Seattle – with new Bears OC Shane Waldron as OC – finished the past three years tied for 30th, 22nd, and tied for 24th in RB receptions.
• We’ll see if Swift can finally get more goal-line work.
  • He ranked a decent 15th in the league in carries inside the 5-yard line last year (vs. 12th in total carries). But he benefited from Philly reaching that range a lot.
  • Swift’s 33.3% share of carries in that range ranked just 31st league wide.
  • That followed Jamaal Williams stealing goal-line work from him in Detroit.
• Swift will also likely face an O-line downgrade. The Bears have made some additions up front. But last year’s Eagles ranked third in PFF pass-blocking grade. The 2022 Lions checked in ninth. Chicago finished 2023 tied for 23rd.