Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Allen has finished as a top-3 fantasy QB in four straight seasons.

The Stefon Diggs trade removes his biggest producer in each of those standout campaigns. But in our eyes, the Bills will be OK with new arrivals Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Plus, Allen’s rushing remains a key fantasy driver.

We’d be surprised if he falls outside of the top-3 fantasy QBs.

What We Learned Last Year

• Allen finished as the QB1 in total fantasy points (473.7) and points per game (27.9).
  • He tied for the league-league in top-5 fantasy finishes (nine).
  • He finished worse than QB14 only twice.
• He didn’t miss a game due to injury for the fifth straight season.
• Allen’s, completion rate, yards per attempt, TD rate, and passing success rate all fell in line with career norms.
  • His 3.1% INT rate marked his highest figure since 2018. That turned into a career-high 18 picks.
• Allen played behind a cohesive O-line that ranked sixth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate; ninth in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.
• Buffalo swapped out OC/playcaller Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady in Week 11.
  • Allen averaged 4.8 rushes per game with Dorsey; 9.2 under Brady.
• In total, Allen set a career-high with 15 rushing TDs. Allen’s 21 rushes inside the ten yard-line were topped by only 14 ball carriers.
• Overall, Buffalo’s approach tilted towards the run game under Brady. The Bills ranked near the bottom of the league in pass rate over expected in Brady’s nine-game sample.

What to Expect in 2024

• Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs in April.
  • The 30-year-old has hit 154 targets and 8+ TDs in all four seasons with the Bills.
• The Bills spent an early Round 2 pick on FSU WR Keon Coleman.
  • Only 21, Coleman brings much-needed size to the WR corps – especially after the departure of Gabe Davis.
  • He's a ball-winner at 6'3, 213 pounds. While his timed speed underwhelmed (4.61), his play speed suggests he can eventually thrive in a starting role.
• A mostly returning O-line remains solid heading into September.
  • Allen's bookended by a massive tackle duo of Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown.
• Joe Brady enters his first full season as Bills’ OC.
  • Brady drew a HC interview with Atlanta but returns for his third season with Buffalo. He adds an element of continuity for Allen.