Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Thomas turned in a huge rookie season, catching 87 balls for 1,282 yards and 10 TDs across 17 games. Only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson tallied more receiving yards last year. Thomas’ 10 scores tied for fifth among WRs.

He finished fifth at the position in total PPR points and 15th in points per game. Thomas scored the 17th most PPR points per game by a rookie WR in NFL history — and the sixth most over the past 10 seasons.

He was more productive during the second half of the season than the first. Here are the per-game splits:

Weeks 1-9

• 3.9 catches
• 66.1 yards
• 0.6 TDs

Weeks 10-18

• 6.5 catches
• 85.9 yards
• 0.6 TDs

Thomas ranked 11th among WRs in PPR points over the first nine weeks; seventh over the final nine.

He closed his rookie season with 100+ yards in three of his final four outings.

Usage & Role

Thomas tallied 133 targets on the season — a 24.4% share that ranked 20th among WRs.

Like his production, Thomas’ volume grew over the second half of the season:

Weeks 1-9

• 5.9 targets per game
• 18.7% share

Weeks 10-18

• 10.0 targets per game
• 30.4% share

Thomas ranked 10th among WRs in total targets and sixth in target share from Week 10 on. He ranked seventh in expected PPR points per game over the second half (after ranking 43rd over the first half).

Efficiency Metrics

Thomas hauled in 65.4% of his targets and averaged 14.7 yards per catch last year. His 9.6 yards per target ranked 14th among 89 WRs with 50+ targets.

Thomas’ 2.45 yards per route ranked sixth among those 89 WRs and first among 11 qualifying rookie WRs. In fact, he became just the sixth rookie WR over the last five seasons to top 2.3 yards per route, joining Puka Nacu, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and Ladd McConkey.

Nacua, Jefferson, Chase, and Olave all averaged more PPR points per game in their 2nd seasons than they did as rookies.

Offensive Context

Thomas’ elite efficiency last year is even more impressive considering the Jaguars offense was not good. Jacksonville finished:

• 26th in points
• 25th in total yads
• 24th in passing yards
• 21st in yards per pass attempt

While Thomas averaged 2.45 yards per route, all other Jaguars WRs combined for 1.06.

Interestingly, Thomas’ big second half came without QB Trevor Lawrence, who played just 19 snaps over Jacksonville’s final eight games. Thomas averaged 2.40 yards per route with Lawrence through Week 9; 2.50 from Week 10 on.

WR Christian Kirk missed the final nine games of the season and TE Evan Engram the final four, which helped boost Thomas’ volume.

Injury History

Thomas played all 17 games last year but exited early in Week 8 with a chest injury. He totaled just four catches over 34 yards across his next two games before catching fire down the stretch.

Thomas missed one game at LSU in 2022 with a concussion.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Thomas will face new competition for targets this season after the Jaguars traded up to take Travis Hunter with the second overall pick of this spring’s draft.

Hunter was a two-position star in college, playing both WR and CB. The big question now is just how much he’ll play on each side of the ball as a pro. The team said shortly after drafting him that Hunter would play “primarily” offense to start, but he was already getting defensive reps in May OTAs.

Exactly how many snaps Hunter gets on offense will have a meaningful impact on Thomas’ target volume. It’ll be a situation to watch closely throughout the summer.

Elsewhere in the pass-catching corps, the Jaguars released TE Evan Engram and traded WR Christian Kirk to Houston this offseason. Those two combined to average 13 targets per game last year.

Outside of Hunter, the only significant addition Jacksonville made was WR Dyami Brown on a one-year, $10 million deal. His 30 catches and 308 yards last season were career highs.

This could be a situation where Thomas and Hunter combine for over 50% of Jaguars targets.

Thomas is unlikely to top a 30% target share like he did over the second half of last season. But we’re currently projecting him for 26.5%. And his 153 projected targets are eighth most among WRs.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023. Tampa Bay ranked:

• 3rd in passing yards
• 6th in yards per pass attempt
• 2nd in passing TDs

WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finished third and 11th, respectively, at the position in PPR points per game last year.

Coen looks like a huge upgrade from Pederson for Thomas’ fantasy outlook.

Supporting Cast

QB Trevor Lawrence returns after an underwhelming, injury-shortened 2024 campaign. He’s yet to deliver on the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. But Lawrence isn’t lacking in ability, is still only 25, and should benefit from Coen’s arrival.

Production & Efficiency Trends

As mentioned above, Thomas joined an elite group of WRs by averaging over 2.3 yards per route as a rookie. The four WRs to do that over the previous four seasons all averaged more PPR points per game in year two.