Can Jayden Daniels Finish as the QB1 in 2025?

 

Washington Commanders 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR Deebo Samuel
• WR Jaylin Lane
• LT Laremy Tunsil
• RT Josh Conerly

Key Departures

• WR Dyami Brown
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Jayden Daniels

Bottom Line: Daniels Positioned for a Fantasy Repeat

Daniels turned in a dominant rookie season, and his supporting cast only improved heading into 2025. The 24-year-old is a strong bet for top-five fantasy production, with the upside to lead all QBs in points.

2024 Summary

One of the Best Rookie QB Seasons Ever

Daniels stunned the league with 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, and nine INTs across 17 games. He dominated on the ground with 891 rushing yards and six additional scores -- both top-three marks among QBs.

The rookie finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in 12 weeks. Aside from the Week 7 game he left early, Daniels finished worse than QB20 only twice.

At season’s end, Daniels ranked fifth in total fantasy points and sixth in points per game.

Daniels Runs Like Lamar Jackson

Daniels’ ground game usage propelled him to an excellent campaign.

Among QBs, he ranked:

• Second in carries
• Second in rush yards
• Third in designed carries
• Third in rush TDs

Daniels also led the position with 595 yards on scrambles, per Pro Football Focus. He sat third with 296 yards on designed runs.

And He Already Passes Like a Veteran

Among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks last year, Daniels ranked:

• fifth in adjusted completion rate
• sixth in PFF passing grade
• 14th in yards per attempt

His rushing output stemmed from excellent efficiency, too.

In a sample of 18 QBs with 50+ rushes, Daniels ranked third in EPA per rush and fourth in success rate. His explosive rush rate ranked seventh.

Washington Didn't Supply a High-End Supporting Cast

Daniels quickly mastered OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

The unit finished fifth in plays, seventh in yards, and fifth in points. The Commanders ranked just 20th in pass rate, jumping to tenth in pass rate over expected.

Daniels didn’t enjoy the luxury of a fully formed supporting cast, either.

His top target earners behind Terry McLaurin:

• Zach Ertz
• Olamide Zaccheaus
• Noah Brown
• Austin Ekeler

This O-line ranked 22nd in PFF’s pass blocking grades. Daniels took 47 sacks, sixth-most league-wide.

Despite Rib Scare, Daniels Stayed Healthy

Daniels sustained a rib injury in Week 7 vs. Carolina. He missed practice the following Wednesday and Thursday before suiting up for Week 8.

Across five college seasons, Daniels missed only one game (ankle, 2019).

2025 Expectations

Washington Adds Two Critical Pieces

Washington made it a priority to upgrade the talent around Daniels this offseason.

First, Deebo Samuel arrived in a March trade. Samuel encountered more injury trouble in 2024, while he also tallied his lowest career yards per route run (1.60). There’s bounce-back potential at 29 years old, but it’s no guarantee.

The Commanders also swung a deal for LT Laremy Tunsil. He supplies a massive upgrade on Washington’s 2024 situation.

The newcomers join an offense that returns WR Terry McLaurin, WR Noah Brown, and TE Zach Ertz. McLaurin remains squarely in his prime, but we’ll see if Ertz, now 34, can assemble another healthy season.

Depth pieces like WR Luke McCaffrey, rookie WR Jaylin Lane, and TE Ben Sinnott are major unknowns.

Key Coaches Return from Dynamic 2024

Kliff Kingsbury drew HC interest this cycle, but he ultimately returned for his second season as play-caller.

Since 2020, his offenses have ranked fourth, eighth, third, and fifth in plays.

He really leaned into Daniels' rushing strength, helping the rookie finish fifth in run-pass option throws and third in RPO runs.

Here’s Kingsbury reflecting back on the season:

"The first game we didn't know what we were or who we were, what he was. And so even me calling plays and understanding how to put him in better situations to be successful (has evolved). But I think you just watch his game and the way he played that first game. I mean, the very first pass he threw for like minus-20, like a backwards pass (that was officially ruled a fumbled pitch that lost 15 yards). And he's just come a long way."

The article also shows how close of a relationship they’ve formed in just one season. We’ll see how much longer Kingsbury sticks around, but his return for 2025 should be considered a huge win.

QB coach Tavita Pritchard also returns. He garnered an interview for Jacksonville’s OC job before returning to Washington.

Brian Robinson Jr.

Bottom Line: Robinson Retains RB2 Upside in Contract Year

Robinson remains the favorite for early-down work, but Austin Ekeler returns to siphon targets. Treat Robinson as a fantasy RB3 with RB2 upside.

2024 Summary

Robinson Proved Useful Even With a Healthy Ekeler

Robinson amassed 788 yards and eight TDs, adding 20 catches and 159 additional yards.

Across 14 appearances, he finished RB29 in total PPR points (RB28 in points per game). Robinson finished as a top-24 RB in 10 games. Three of those were top-12 finishes.

In eight healthy games with Austin Ekeler, Robinson finished:

• RB11
• RB21
• RB22
• RB19
• RB19
• RB33
• RB14
• RB52

Go-To Option in Early Down and Red Zone Situations

Robinson saw the bulk of his work on early downs.

He handled 13.3 carries and 1.8 targets per game. He peaked with a pair of 21-carry outings -- both with Ekeler sidelined.

With Ekeler, Robinson averaged:

• 11.3 carries per game on a 37.7% share
• 1.5 targets per game on a 4.9% share

Robinson ranked 17th among RBs in red zone carries (41). That was four carries ahead of QB Jayden Daniels; 21 ahead of Ekeler.

Career-Best Efficiency Metrics ... but Does it Matter?

Robinson set a career high with 4.2 yards per carry and 3.00 yards after contact per attempt.

Those figures were unspectacular compared to his peers, though. Among 25 RBs with 200+ carries, he ranked 16th in YPC and 14th in YAC per attempt.

He also sat:

• 16th in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating
• 20th in PFF rushing grade

Robinson fumbled twice following seasons of four and two fumbles.

QB Breakout + High Play Volume = Ideal Environment

The backfield benefited from the rapid rise of QB Jayden Daniels. He accounted for a hefty 148 carries and helped propel the unit to top-seven finishes in yards and points.

OC Kliff Kingsbury’s unit also slotted fifth in offensive plays. Washington ranked 13th in run rate and third in team rush attempts.

Two Injuries Limited Robinson's Impact

Robinson missed Week 6 with a knee injury and Weeks 9 and 10 with a hamstring strain. He lasted only five carries before departing Week 12 with an ankle sprain.

Robinson missed two games in 2023 with a hamstring injury.

2025 Expectations

Robinson Poised to Handle a Similar Role

Robinson enters the final year of his rookie contract.

Washington opted against making an impactful backfield addition, waiting until Round 7 to select RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He played only one game this past season but has garnered some buzz in training camp.

So Robinson projects in another timeshare with Austin Ekeler, who turned 30 in May. He’s missed eight games over the past two seasons (ankle, concussions).

Washington also added WR Deebo Samuel in a March trade. He’s averaged 45 carries per season since 2021, but we don’t expect that level of involvement on the ground. Samuel has also missed multiple games in three consecutive seasons.

Supporting Cast Looks Stronger With Deebo, Tunsil

Robinson’s supporting cast looks stronger with Samuel, Year 2 of Jayden Daniels, and new LT Laremy Tunsil.

The ‘24 Commanders already ranked second in ESPN’s run block win rate. They hit on durable free agent additions from last year like G Nick Allegretti and C Tyler Biadasz.

Both guys return for 2025.

Scheme Continuity Should Support Production

Washington welcomes back OC Kliff Kingsbury and RB coach/run game coordinator Anthony Lynn.

We expect a similar offensive approach here, both in terms of run/pass split and run style. In 2024, Robinson ran zone concepts on 116 runs; gap scheme on 100 (per PFF).

Washington boasts the O-line talent to retain one of the league's most versatile ground games.

Austin Ekeler

Bottom Line: Ekeler's Merely a RB4 in PPR

Two concussions disrupted Ekeler’s 2024. While the team passed on an offseason upgrade, the 30-year-old is best viewed as a spot-start PPR flex.

2024 Summary

Ekeler's Downward Trend Continued

Ekeler made only 12 appearances last year, limiting him to a RB34 finish in PPR. He jumped to RB29 in points per game.

The former Charger racked up 367 rushing yards and four TDs, adding 35 catches and 366 additional yards through the air. Ekeler spiked with an eight-catch, 89-yard outing in Week 1. He hit 30+ receiving yards in six games.

Still, he failed to rebound from a down 2023. Ekeler’s 11.0 PPR points per game were his fewest since 2017.

Washington Limited His Volume (As Expected)

Ekeler averaged 6.4 carries and 3.4 targets per game.

In eight healthy games alongside Brian Robinson, Ekeler never topped a 22% carry share. But he garnered at least an 8% target share in each game, topping out at a huge 28% in Week 11.

In eight healthy games with Robinson, Ekeler recorded:

• 5.1 carries per game on a 17.2% share
• 3.5 targets per game on an 11.4% share

Ekeler benefited from seeing the field in pass-friendly situations. Per FantasyLife, he played 77% of the team’s long down and distance snaps and 67% of the two-minute snaps.

Efficiency Metrics Show a Mixed Bag

Ekeler recorded a career-low 2.51 yards after contact per attempt last year. That shouldn’t come as a surprise given his age (29) and size (5’9, 200 lbs.).

On a promising note, his 4.6 yards per carry was just above his career average. He added 1.59 yards per route run, a figure he hadn’t reached since 2020 (1.71).

Ekeler Underwhelmed, Despite Washington's Breakout Offense

Ekeler was never a great bet for rushing volume.

QB Jayden Daniels instantly hit the league as a dynamic rusher. Sure enough, he accounted for a hefty 148 carries.

Brian Robinson – at 228 pounds – handled most of the early-down work.

But Washington’s underwhelming pass-catcher corps helped Ekeler. Terry McLaurin supplied an alpha threat, and TE Zach Ertz enjoyed a resurgent season. Beyond that pair, targets were up for grabs in an offense that exceeded all expectations.

The ‘24 Commanders also finished top seven in plays, yards, and points.

Injuries Continued to Pile Up

Ekeler missed five games with a pair of concussions -- the third and fourth such injuries of his pro career.

He missed three games with a high-ankle sprain in 2023.

2025 Expectations

Commanders Run it Back With Robinson-Ekeler Tandem

Ekeler enters the final season of a two-year contract.

Per ESPN’s John Keim, Washington reportedly wanted a “dynamic” three-down back in the draft. Instead, they didn’t select one until Round 7 (Jacory Croskey-Merritt). He played only one game this past season.

So it’ll be Ekeler and Brian Robinson atop the depth chart once again.

Now, we’ll see how much rushing work is given to the newly acquired Deebo Samuel. But we’re not expecting him to see more than a carry or two per game.

Could This Offense Get BETTER in 2025?

Ekeler’s supporting cast looks stronger with Samuel, Year 2 of Jayden Daniels, and new LT Laremy Tunsil.

The ‘24 Commanders already ranked second in ESPN’s run block win rate. They hit on durable free agent additions from last year like G Nick Allegretti and C Tyler Biadasz.

Both guys return for 2025.

Coaching Staff Returns; Expect a Similar Approach 

Washington retained OC Kliff Kingsbury and RB coach/run game coordinator Anthony Lynn. Ekeler worked with Lynn when he was on the Chargers’ coaching staff (2017-2020).

We expect a similar offensive approach here. Last year, the Commanders sat 20th in pass rate but jumped to tenth in pass rate over expected.

Terry McLaurin

Bottom Line: McLaurin Isn't a Draft Target at Cost

Be prepared for McLaurin’s 13 TDs to regress. Sure, he'll remain Jayden Daniels' go-to target, but an early-Round 4 ADP isn't one we're interested in. Keep an eye on his lingering contract situation, too; it's kept him out of the early part of training camp. 

2024 Summary

Career-High Production ... In Year 6

McLaurin tallied 82 catches, 1,096 yards, and a career-high 13 TDs. The TD count ranked second among WRs.

The veteran started slowly, finishing as the PPR WR67 and WR37 over the first two weeks. But QB Jayden Daniels quickly progressed, allowing McLaurin to finish as a top-20 WR in 13 out of his final 15 games.

He ranked 15th among WRs in fantasy points per game and seventh in total fantasy points.

The yardage, at least, shouldn't have been a surprise. McLaurin has now topped 1,000 receiving yards for five straight seasons.

McLaurin's Raw Target Count Will Surprise You

McLaurin saw at least a 21% target share in 11 games. He topped out at 40%, ultimately finishing the year at 22.3%.

His 117 targets actually marked his lowest tally since 2019. He finished three games with four or fewer targets and topped eight on only three occasions.

McLaurin continued to play heavy snaps outside. He lined up wide on 83.9% of his passing snaps, which nearly mirrored his figure from 2023.

Outlier TD Rate Drove the Fantasy Boom

TD output stands out above anything else.

McLaurin ranked second among WRs in TDs but 13th in expected TDs. The 5.3-TD difference was the biggest at the position.

Elsewhere, McLaurin showed no signs of decline. Among 51 WRs with 80+ targets, he ranked:

• fourth in contested catch rate
• 12th in catch rate
• 13th in yards per catch
• 13th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 21st in yards per route run
• 22nd in yards after catch per reception

His catch rate and contested catch rate set career highs.

Jayden Daniels Helped Elevate McLaurin's Game

QB Jayden Daniels and OC Kliff Kingsbury truly elevated this unit.

Kingsbury’s offense ranked fifth in offensive plays. They sat tenth in seconds per play and first in no-huddle rate.

Daniels earned Rookie of the Year Honors with a 3,568-25-9 passing line and 148-891-9 rushing. The dual-threat QB ranked 12th in on-target throw rate, just behind Brock Purdy, per Pro Football Reference.

McLaurin also benefited from a thin depth chart. TE Zach Ertz finished second in targets, followed by WRs Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown.

No Concerns With Durability

McLaurin appeared in all 17 games last year. He hasn’t missed an outing since the 2020 season.

2025 Expectations

Washington Upgrades at WR2

McLaurin returns as the No. 1 WR, although Washington upgraded around him.

Deebo Samuel arrived in a March trade after tallying 51 catches, 670 yards, and three TDs in 14 games last year. Just note: He’s missed multiple games in three straight seasons and remains a decline risk at 29.

Washington also added former Cowboys WR Michael Gallup. He didn’t play at all last season and won’t be guaranteed a roster spot.

WR Jaylin Lane joined as a Round 3 pick. He brings excellent athleticism but an underwhelming production profile. His primary responsibility might be as a returner.

TE Zach Ertz and WR Noah Brown returned on one-year deals. Neither move changed our outlook for McLaurin.

New LT Provides a Lift in Pass Pro

Washington supported Jayden Daniels with the trade for LT Laremy Tunsil. His addition should raise the ceiling on the entire offense.

Even if Daniels doesn’t take a Year 2 jump, it’s clear he’s reached a level of play that’s impactful for McLaurin. His 69% completion rate ranked fourth all-time for a rookie. His passing TDs ranked sixth.

Creative Usage Wasn't a Factor in McLaurin's Big '24

OC Kliff Kingsbury will run it back for a second season.

While the offense excelled in 2024, it’s noteworthy that Kingsbury continued to have his WRs play sides. Per PFF, McLaurin lined up as the left WR on 822 of 944 snaps out wide. He lined up on the right 10+ times in only three games.

Per ESPN, Washington also ranked near the bottom of the league in pre-snap motion rate (46.3%).

Perhaps there’s some decline risk if McLaurin’s usage remains stale. Still, it’s nothing we’re worried about.

Don't Fret Over McLaurin's 30th Birthday

Our historical aging curves show that on average, 30-year-old WRs of McLaurin’s caliber produce at 93% of their peak.

Despite him hitting the often uncomfortable age, we’ve seen nothing to suggest a major age-related dip is imminent.

Of course, we'll be keeping a close eye on his contract standoff. McLaurin enters August without participating in any training camp practice. And in late July, word came down that he requested a trade from Washington. We don't expect one to happen, but these developments only add risk to McLaurin's 2025 fantasy outlook.

Deebo Samuel

Bottom Line: Samuel's A Low-Risk Pick at Cost

A new team and persistent injury risk add uncertainty to Samuel’s fantasy outlook. When healthy, though, he projects as a useful WR3 alongside QB Jayden Daniels.

2024 Summary

Pneumonia Might Have Wrecked His Season

Samuel scattered 51 catches, 670 yards, and three TDs across 14 games last year. His rushing line: 42-136-1.

His production needs some context, as he dealt with a serious illness (pneumonia) in-season.

In five games before the illness, Samuel tallied 10.5 yards per target and 2.19 yards per route. In his nine games following pneumonia: 6.8 yards per target and 1.26 yards per route.

In total, the sixth-year pro finished with a career-low 11.1 PPR points per game. After ranking WR12 and WR15 over the first two weeks, he tallied only two more top-15 fantasy performances. He finished WR43 or worse nine times.

Samuel's Target Share Took a Hit

Excluding Week 7 – when Samuel left after only four snaps – he handled an 18.9% target share. That was down from his marks in 2023 (22.1%) and 2022 (23.3%).

As usual, he handled a short-range role, leading to a 6.9-yard average depth of target.

Efficiency Metrics Paint an Ugly Picture

Deebo tallied career lows in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (72.1) and yards per route run (1.60).

Samuel also received poor marks in ESPN’s Receiver Score, which measures a WR’s ability to get open, complete a catch, and gain yards after the catch. Among 116 qualifying WRs, Samuel ranked 82nd.

49ers Situation Offered a Chance for More Work

Samuel was poised for a larger role last year. RB Christian McCaffrey played only four games, while WR Brandon Aiyuk lasted just seven. Plus, Round 1 WR Ricky Pearsall didn’t make his NFL debut until Week 7.

Now, QB Brock Purdy’s play dipped last fall. Still, 2024 proved particularly disappointing for Samuel, who topped 75 yards only once over his final nine games.

His Injury History Shows Clear Risk

Samuel missed three games while battling an assortment of injuries: ribs, calf, wrist, and oblique. As noted, he also battled through a case of pneumonia.

The 29-year-old has now missed multiple games in three straight seasons.

2025 Expectations

Samuel Landed in a Solid Spot for Targets

Washington acquired Samuel for a Round 5 pick. He’s only under contract for this season.

He projects as the No. 2 target behind Terry McLaurin. Last season, McLaurin remained a viable No. 1 WR with an 82-1,096-13 receiving line on 117 targets. He turns 30 in September but hasn’t exhibited any signs of decline.

TE Zach Ertz showed he remains a viable chain mover after tallying 66-654-7 last year. Still, he carries legitimate decline risk at 34. He played 11 or fewer games in three of four seasons before 2024.

Washington’s other pieces – Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and rookie Jaylin Lane – won’t present target roadblocks.

Deebo should also earn some rushing work. Washington’s backfield of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler projects as league average.

Can Jayden Daniels Improve in the Short Range?

Washington supported Jayden Daniels with the trade for LT Laremy Tunsil. His addition should raise the ceiling on the entire offense.

Even if Daniels’ performance flatlines, he’ll provide stability for Samuel. We’ll look for improvement from the second-year passer on shorter-range throws, though. Per PFF, he tallied an 80.7% adjusted completion rate on throws between 0-9 yards. That ranked 28th among 38 qualifying QBs.

Expect Washington to Prioritize Samuel on Quick Hitters

OC Kliff Kingsbury enters a second season.

Samuel should fit well in an offense that likes to execute screens. Last year, Daniels ranked ninth among 47 QBs in screen drop backs, per PFF.

Easy catch-and-run opportunities are nothing new for Samuel. He saw a whopping 50% of his targets come on screens in 2024.

Here’s how that compares to past seasons:

• 2023: 43.6%
• 2022: 40%
• 2021: 50%
• 2020: 70.8%
• 2019: 31.3%

Interestingly, HC Dan Quinn hinted at a new wrinkle to get the ball in Deebo’s hands.

Here’s what he said about Deebo’s role – and whether it’ll mirror the past:

"I would say similar, but I wouldn't say the same. That's kind of what's fun about it, adding new people in, the nice part about when you do trade for somebody or in the draft as well, you find these unique things that a player has, and man, does he have them. Kliff [Kingsbury] and Brian [Johnson] and the guys have certainly been up extra late in the offseason of finding unique ways to get the ball into that man's hand."

Zach Ertz

Bottom Line: View Ertz as a Fantasy Spot Starter 

Ertz beat the odds and assembled a useful 2024 season. But an upgraded supporting cast and likely TD regression make him more of a fantasy TE2 heading into 2025.

2024 Summary

Ertz Turns Back the Clock

Ertz overcame injury concerns to post 66 catches, 654 yards, and seven TDs in 17 games last year. Each mark ranked top 11 among TEs.

He finished eighth among TEs in total PPR points, dropping to 11th in points per game.

A Major Factor Near the Goal Line

Ertz finished with a solid 77% route rate. Only ten TEs beat that mark.

He ranked second at the position in red zone target share (30.9%). Meanwhile, only three TEs topped his nine end zone targets.

Overall, the 34-year-old ranked 12th among TEs in target share (18%). He finished second on the team with 91 targets, behind Terry McLaurin (117) and far ahead of No. 3 finisher Olamide Zaccheaus (64).

Efficiency Metrics Show Some Positive, Some Negative

Ertz delivered on TD efficiency. He scored on all six receptions inside the 10-yard line.

The former Eagle added a strong 75.7% catch rate, well above his career average. However, he underwhelmed with 1.32 yards per route run and 2.8 yards after catch per reception. Those marks ranked 23rd and 25th, respectively, among 33 qualifying TEs.

Ertz Stepped Up for Needy Pass Offense

Ertz capitalized on a special season from QB Jayden Daniels. His offense ranked top seven in points, yards, and plays.

Ertz also benefited from a lack of pass-catching depth. Washington lacked a steady WR behind Terry McLaurin, while pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler missed five games with a pair of concussions.

Lastly, the Commanders didn’t get any return on Round 2 TE Ben Sinnott. He totaled five catches in four games.

Stunner: Ertz Played a Full Season

Ertz suffered a Week 15 concussion but didn’t miss a game. That was his third documented concussion.

Ultimately, 2024 marked a much different result on the injury front. Ertz missed 7 games with an ACL/MCL tear in 2022. In 2023, a quad injury forced ten absences.

2025 Expectations

Washington Boosts Pay to Keep Veteran

In March, Washington re-signed Ertz to a one-year deal worth $6.25 million (nearly $6 million guaranteed). 2025 marks his 13th NFL season.

He’ll return to a starting role ahead of second-year TE Ben Sinnott and blocking TE John Bates.

Expect Ertz to drop to third in targets, though. WR Terry McLaurin returns, and the team swung a deal for 49ers WR Deebo Samuel. We’ll see if Samuel can assemble a healthy 2025, but his addition at least makes it tougher for Ertz to repeat his 2024.

Familiar Offense Should Help Performance

OC Kliff Kingsbury returns for his second season.

In 2024, Washington TEs saw a combined 21% target share. That ranked mid-pack league-wide but marked a noticeable increase from Kingsbury’s Arizona days.

The offensive continuity should benefit both Ertz and Jayden Daniels, whose play could reach another level in Year 2.

At 35 Years Old, He's a Clear Outlier

Ertz turns 35 in November. Our historical aging curves show that, on average, age-35 TEs perform at 63% of their fantasy peak.

Of course, Ertz beat the odds by making it this far into his NFL career. Despite decline risk, expect him to remain fantasy relevant in 2025.

Get More NFC East Intel

Join Matt Schauf and Jared Smola as they discuss on all things NFC East in this podcast episode. And be sure to check our up-to-date fantasy football rankings throughout the summer...