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Fantasy Football Draft Preview: Quarterbacks

When should you draft a QB?

Deciding when to select a QB in your draft can make or break your fantasy team.

Should you opt for an elite option such as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes?

Or is a late-round QB strategy better?

What about in a Superflex league?

Let’s dive into QB draft strategy and how to find the perfect upside QB. 

Importance of QB Rushing

Finding that Konami Code QB who offers rushing upside often gives you a QB advantage over other managers.

At the very least, your starting QB needs to be able to scramble for yards and TDs when opportunities arise.

Since 2019, the overall QB1 has scored at least 4 rushing TDs and run for at least 350 yards every year.

Over the past five seasons, top-12 QBs have averaged 350 rushing yards and 4.0 rushing TDs.

Among the 15 top-3 QBs over the past five seasons, nine hit at least 4 rushing TDs. Nine of them hit at least 350 rushing yards.

Your odds of success improve with a QB who can hit these thresholds.

What Do Our Projections Say?

Our QB Rankings show the following QBs projected to hit at least 350 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.

We have two other QBs close to those thresholds:

Rushing QBs give you the upside for QB1 games week to week if they can break a big run or score multiple TDs.

They also provide a solid QB2 floor every week due to rushing yards being worth more points than passing yards.

How Many QBs Should I Draft?

It depends on your team structure early in the draft.

If you draft an elite QB such as Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, then heading into the season with only one QB makes sense. You won’t be benching your high-end QB, even in poor matchups. So it's better to take shots on sleeper RBs and WRs in those later rounds.

If you are one of the last teams to take your first QB -- or take a risky QB such as Anthony Richardson -- it makes sense to take a backup.

Either approach can have success, so let’s break them down.

Elite QB Strategy

Taking a high-end QB early in drafts has benefits.

Having an elite weekly starter means you don't need to draft a backup. That saves a roster spot to be spent on a sleeper RB or WR late in the draft.

High-end QBs also bring potential for QB1 overall weeks. Players such as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes are always a threat to go nuclear.

That said, drafting a QB in the second or third round costs value at other positions.

Opportunity Cost of Top QBs

Here are two  possible draft combinations at the end of the second and 10th rounds of a PPR draft:

Due to this opportunity cost, we are staying away from most of the early QBs -- outside of Jalen Hurts -- at current ADP.

Late-Round QB Strategy

Drafting multiple upside QBs later in your draft can work well.

There are some massive benefits to implementing a late-round QB strategy.

Savvy fantasy players can leverage strong matchups to get QB1 production from a QB2 in a given week. 

We generally see a late-round QB or two break out from late draft positions (C.J. Stroud in 2023, for example).

C.J. Stroud delivered big value from a late-round ADP in 2023. Every season presents a QB or two in that category.

Waiting on QB allows you to take two shots on finding a specific sleeper and getting QB production cheaply.

The largest benefit is being able to strengthen the top of your roster. While some of your league mates will draft a QB in the third or fourth round, your waiting until the 10th or 11th can boost your RBs and/or WRs.

Superflex and 2-QB Leagues

If you can start two QBs on your team, the strategy shifts entirely.

Superflex and 2-QB leagues make the position far more valuable by doubling your potential QB points weekly.

This pushes the position to the top of the draft and makes a later-round QB strategy much more difficult.

Rostering two top QBs will give you a huge positional advantage.

Even with the added QB starting spot, QBs remain underrated overall in superflex when comparing our rankings to ADP.

2024 QB Targets 

QB values can be found throughout your draft if you plan properly. Other managers may overlook a potential QB1 or weigh an injury too heavily and miss an opportunity. 

Check out our fantasy football sleepers if you want even deeper sleeper QBs.

Here are our favorite QBs to target:

Jalen Hurts

Hurts remains one of the best QB values year over year.

We project Hurts as the QB1 overall. ADP has him going a full round after Josh Allen. 

A healthy Hurts should easily surpass the rushing thresholds above. And he boasts some of the best weapons in the NFL.

Don't be scared away by the addition of Saquon Barkley at RB. Hurts' “Tush Push” TDs will remain as an effective goal-line tool.

Even if his TDs regress, Hurts' legs and arm will do enough damage to present weekly QB1 overall upside.

Jayden Daniels

Daniels is being drafted as a QB2, but he ranks sixth in our ceiling projections among QBs. His rushing ability alone makes Daniels an exceptional pick.

Daniels rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs in his final LSU season, leading his team in rushing.

OC Kliff Kingsbury looks perfect for Daniels’ skillset. Kingsbury uses old Air Raid concepts to spread out the defense and give his QB options in the passing game -- while creating rushing lanes for the QB.

Expect a ton of rushing, which will give Daniels a high floor and tremendous ceiling.

There's top-5 potential here.

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence doesn’t fit the rushing minimums we explored before, but he is a target if you commit to a late-round QB strategy.

As a former No. 1 overall pick, Lawrence brings plenty of talent who should see positive regression in the production of his WRs this year.

In 2023, Lawrence endured the highest dropped-pass rate among the past three NFL seasons.

According to Sharp Football, he also had the highest rate of incompletion due to WR error in the league last year.

Bringing in Brian Thomas Jr. and letting Calvin Ridley go could be enough to change Lawrence's fortunes.

And the QB has reached 334 rushing yards and 4 TDs twice each through three seasons. So he's a candidate to reach those thresholds.

Get the ULTIMATE Guide Your Draft

We're happy to give you tips leading up to your draft. But fantasy football drafts NEVER go as expected.

Your Draft War Room syncs directly with your league. So it knows your settings going in.

And as you draft, it knows who you've taken, what's left, and who's likely to get back to you -- among 17 value indicators measured for EVERY pick recommendation. 

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.