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Don’t Trust the Box Score: Rookie RB Was More Impressive Than His Stats

Fantasy football is all about the box score: yards and TDs equal fantasy points.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. After advanced analytics, film can be utilized to identify talented players who can continue performing. Or players whose box-score production was fluky. 

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the stat line indicates.

The Trenches Change Fantasy Outcomes

The O-line often gets overlooked in fantasy, but RBs rely on them to open up holes. After that, it falls to the RB to take good angles and avoid tackles. 

O-line struggles can cause even the best RBs to falter. Two RBs in Week 1 stood out with better performances than the numbers revealed, thanks to faltering blockers facing tough defensive fronts.

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

Hampton rushed 15 times for 48 yards and hauled in two passes for 13 yards. The 8.1 PPR points were disappointing, especially with Najee Harris only getting two touches in the game. But Hampton played much better than his 3.2 yards per carry average shows.

The Chargers used outside zone runs throughout the game to leverage Hampton’s explosion and burst. He certainly showcased the physical talents that made him a first-round pick. 

On this early carry, Hampton follows the pulling blockers and bursts through the early hole. A slower back is likely to get hit at the line. 

He was inches away from avoiding the ankle tackle at the end, which may have given Hampton an additional 4-5 yards.

It was a solid start for the rookie.

Hampton consistently broke tackles on first contact, but the O-line failing to hold  blocks muted the impact. 

In the play above, Hampton keeps his feet moving and remains balanced through contact. Despite the lack of help, Hampton uses power to pick up a few extra yards on contact. G Mekhi Becton misses his second-level block, allowing the LB to tackle Hampton after he broke the initial tackle.

Becton dealt with an illness during the week, which might have affected his play.  

Hampton ran 25 pass routes on Justin Herbert’s 41 dropbacks, though he only had two targets. Most of the routes were checkdowns to bail out Justin Herbert (who didn’t need checkdown help for most of the game). But Hampton showed good timing, turning to the ball in space and separating from defenders when covered.

Hampton’s athleticism and receiving instincts came through in a good overall performance. That doesn’t mean every play was outstanding, though. A few rushes broke down thanks to Hampton’s raw instincts.

Hampton Also Stole Yardage from Himself

Hampton got into trouble on three carries because he didn’t trust the play or the blocking. Panicking on an outside zone and trying to cut back will often end in disaster. For example:

Hampton hesitates almost immediately after taking the handoff instead of going to the sideline and turning the ball upfield. Combined with C Bradley Rozeman missing a block on his pull, Hampton’s hesitation leads to a loss of yards -- a clear rookie mistake.

Had Hampton followed the play to the outside and turned upfield, this could have gained considerable yardage. 

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hampton ranked 31st out of 32 qualifying RBs in Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt, but that number can lie (sorry Jared). Hampton tied for 14th in rushing percent over expected at 40%. 

The likely reason for the low RYOE/Att was this one bad run, causing a significant differential. 

For most of his runs, Hampton ran effectively (and broke tackles).

Trust the Talent: Hampton’s Ceiling Remains RB1 Territory

Trust the film on Hampton. He should fix those mental mistakes. And the power and burst will support big games in the future.

I actually thought Hampton clearly outplayed fellow first-round RB Ashton Jeanty in Week 1 after watching both of them.

The Chargers also ranked fourth on the week in neutral pass rate at 64%. Even if they keep that up, Hampton had enough touches to improve his weekly fantasy points with more catches, better blocking, or a TD. If the Chargers do lean more to the run in easier matchups, Hampton could still end up a weekly RB1.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner finished each of the last four seasons among the top-16 RBs in PPR points per game. But Conner hit age 30 this offseason, increasing the historical risk at a dropoff.

The final rushing box score looked poor with 12 rushes for 39 yards in Week 1. Luckily Conner saved his fantasy day with four catches for 5 yards and a TD. Second-year Trey Benson got nine touches himself for 75 yards showing that he may deserve more work. 

But Conner still has it, he just drew a lot of bad luck in his blocking.

Connor was consistently successful with this outside zone run last season. Running behind LT Paris Johnson Jr. usually proved reliable in 2024, but not in this game.

Conner heads outside, but Johnson gets pushed straight into him, causing Conner to about face. If Johnson holds his block, Conner gets outside in the open field against a CB, with a good chance to get at least 5-6 yards.

Conner’s burst remains good, and even his footwork in trying to find a hole is impressive. Conner barely gets caught before making it to the outside in the complete opposite direction.

Another outside zone, more disastrous blocking. Trey McBride gets shoved into Conner’s leg, but the RB stays balanced enough to head outside. Unfortunately, Marvin Harrison Jr. decides to block the inside defender instead of the outside one.

Conner didn’t break the tackle from the CB, but he wasn’t making it much further even if he did. Bad blocking decisions plagued Conner’s film in the game, limiting his  chances to make an impact. 

Veteran Savvy Turns Conner Into a Difference-Maker

When he got even average blocking, Conner proved he still has it.

Conner’s burst and power makes him dangerous when the blocking’s competent. On this play, Elijah Higgins succeeds a lot more than McBride in plugging the middle while Paris Johnson seals the edge well. Conner hits the outside, turns it upfield, and gains yardage while plowing through defenders.

There are just some plays that veterans will run better, and this shovel pass is a good example. The Cardinals run an option where Murray can shovel to Conner or throw outside, depending on how the DE reacts.

Conner sells the play action and sets himself up in a perfect position when the DE goes after Murray.

Conner Remains the Steady Hand Arizona Can Trust

Conner hasn’t lost a step. He hasn’t slowed down or shown signs of age. He is on an offense that showed inconsistency in its blocking. 

If that keeps up, Conner could disappoint from his usual numbers, especially if Benson continues to receive touches.

But Conner’s skills haven’t diminished. I’d bet on the Cardinals relying on Conner to move the chains. Keep him in your lineups.

Kayshon Boutte, Patriots

Boutte spent nearly all of last season as a full-time starter, playing 79.2% of snaps in  his 15 games and 86.1% from Week 5 (his first start) on. 

Despite the offseason additions of Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams, Boutte’s 82% Week 1 snap rate aligned with that 2024 usage.

The former devy darling pointed out after the game that he was once viewed as a first-round pick.

“I think people fail to realize that at one point in time I was [projected as] as first-round pick, just before my surgery,” Boutte said.

But did he actually play like one in the opener? No. 

Boutte Excels on Digs, But Needs More Diversity

Excluding the final drive, Boutte ran 31 routes where he completed his cut. 14 of those (45.2%) were digs or curls (running vertically and cutting sharply back to the QB toward the middle of the field). He was not the first read on any of the non-dig/curl routes. 

Five of Boutte’s eight targets came on dig/curl routes. They accounted for four of his six catches.

Ultimately, Boutte runs one route well, but he won’t always be seeing Kyu Blu Kelly or Eric Stokes in man coverage. Better CBs or zone-heavy teams are going to be problematic for Boutte.

Boutte runs digs and curls route well, and it worked on this play and a handful of others.

But they are schemed for outside man coverage where Boutte can get a bit physical with the CB (like he does with Kelly here) and gain leverage. That won’t work against Sauce Gardner or Tre’Davious White.

Snaps Mask Separation Concerns

When Boutte runs another route, he gets separation in man coverage without manhandling the CB. Drake Maye runs toward his left looking for Boutte, but the WR just isn’t open enough (and doesn’t come back) to even draw the target. That’s concerning.

Ultimately, Boutte’s snaps and usage as the “X” WR should provide enough volume to keep him worth rostering. He should produce a few more worthwhile stat lines (maybe even this week against a porous Dolphins’ secondary). But don’t overrate Boutte’s Week 1 stat line. 

He certainly isn’t a WR I trust against stiffer competition. 

Next Up

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 1 Usage

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.