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Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Basic Stats

Kyle Pitts
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 3
Age: 24.3
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 123.10

SPARQx (Rank): 120.90 (88%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.10 (78%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.47 (64%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.19 (85%)

Kyle Pitts's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
-2.9 -37.9 -0.2 -5.1

Kyle Pitts's 2025 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#7 Tight End

159.2 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 58.6 740.3 4.43 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

The optimism is back for Pitts to finally perform up to his talent level after disappointing over the past two seasons.

Ditching the Arthur Smith offense for a more modern one that utilizes its talent is a welcome change. In addition, the massive QB upgrade to Kirk Cousins gives Pitts the best chance to hit his ceiling.

He is a year and a half removed from MCL and PCL surgery, coming into this season the healthiest of his career.

Pitts is an upside TE1 with a low floor and high ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Pitts’ per-game receiving statistics were in line with his 2022 season:
    • 5.1 targets (down from 5.8)
    • 3 receptions (up from 2.8)
    • 37.6 yards (up from 35.6)
    • 12.5 yards per catch (down from 12.7)
    • 0.21 TDs per game (up from 0.2)
  • Pitts ranked as the PPR TE14 in total fantasy points (132.6) and in points per game (5.1).
  • He played all 17 games despite getting MCL and PCL surgery in November 2022.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had five TE25 or worse finishes.
  • Pitts' target share of 18.4% ranked 13th among TEs. It was also the lowest of his career.
  • Among 33 TEs with at least 40+ targets, Pitts ranked:
    • 11th in PFF receiving grade
    • Third lowest in-line snap percentage of that group (14.9%)
    • Highest average target depth among those TEs at 12.0 yards.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Pitts will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
    • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
    • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
  • Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
    • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
  • The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
  • Pitts enters his 4th season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, a player with Pitts' career produces 98% of his peak value at age-23.

Adjust Kyle Pitts's Projections

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Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

9:06pm EST 12/22/24

New QB, Same Crappy Kyle Pitts

The first start for rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. on Sunday couldn't help TE Kyle Pitts. He drew just 2 targets in the win over the Giants, catching one and letting the other bounce off his hands and to a defender for Penix's only INT.

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The Falcons are benching QB Kirk Cousins and going to QB Michael Penix, according to both NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and ESPN's Adam Schefter. Atlanta stuck with Cousins for too long, losing four of the last five and falling out of first place in the NFC South. They beat the Raiders on Monday night in spite of Cousins, who completed just 11 of 17 passes for 112 yards, one TD, and one INT. Penix obviously lacks Cousins' experience but should prove to be a big upgrade in terms of arm talent. We'd still expect the Falcons to be a run-heavy offense going forward, especially as big favorites over the Giants this weekend.

View all Kirk Cousins Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts was held without a catch in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. He's now been held to 1 or fewer catches in three of his past four games.

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The Falcons and Buccaneers celebrated National TE Day with Kyle Pitts and Cade Otton each scoring two TDs. Pitts ended catching four of five targets for 91 yards while Otton caught nine of 10 targets for 81 yards. Pitts nearly gave one of his away with a fumble over the goal line, but was ruled a TD.

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Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Dynasty MVP 0.0
Position Rank #41 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
227
366
643
Dynasty Write-up
Pitts became the second rookie TE to hit 1,000 yards. Year two was a major disaster, highlighted by a season-ending MCL tear. 2023 remained frustrating under now-fired HC Arthur Smith, despite a full 17-game season from Pitts. Despite getting a QB upgrade in Kirk Cousins, 2024 has proven to be an up and down year. He's under contract for one more season.
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