Xavier Worthy - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Worthy’s short- and long-term fantasy outlooks got a boost when he landed with the Chiefs in Round 1 of this year’s draft. Kansas City has ranked top eight in passing yards and TDs in all six seasons since QB Patrick Mahomes took over.

Worthy faces stiff target competition this year from TE Travis Kelce, WR Marquise Brown, and WR Rashee Rice (after he serves an expected suspension). It’s possible that the rookie settles in as the No. 3 WR and No. 4 option in the passing game.

But he has the potential to push Rice for the lead WR role. That could have Worthy producing as a WR2 with upside for fantasy squads.

What We Learned Last Year

• Worthy arrived at Texas as a four-star recruit.
• He broke out as a true freshman in 2021, leading the Longhorns with 62 catches, 981 yards, and 12 TDs.
  • Worthy accounted for 29% of the team’s catches, 36% of the receiving yards, and 41% of the receiving TDs. Very strong market shares.
• Worthy’s numbers took a step back in 2022: 60 catches, 760 yards, and nine TDs. He dealt with a QB change to freshman Quinn Ewers and played through a fractured finger. Worthy still led Texas in all major receiving categories.
• Worthy set new career highs last year with 75 catches and 1,014 yards.
• He did that despite the arrival of WR Adonai Mitchell, who went in the second round of this year’s draft.
  • Worthy beat Mitchell in catches, yards, and yards per route.
  • Mitchell beat Worthy in TDs and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• Among 286 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Worthy ranked:
  • 125th in PFF receiving grade
  • 89th in yards per route
• Texas made it a point to get the ball in Worthy’s hands. Nearly 23% of his career catches came on screens. He averaged a strong 7.3 yards after catch per reception over the past three years.
• Worthy set the Combine record with a 4.21-second 40 time.
• He also posted a 95th-percentile vertical and 92nd-percentile broad jump.
• The biggest concern with Worthy: He weighed just 165 pounds at the Combine.
• Since 2000, DeVonta Smith, Tank Dell, and Taylor Gabriel are the only WRs of 170 pounds or less to reach 10 PPR points per game in a season.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chiefs traded up four spots to select Worthy with the 28th overall pick of this year’s draft.
• He joins DeVonta Smith as the only two WRs since 2000 to weigh 170 pounds or less and get drafted in Round 1. In that way, Worthy is already an outlier when it comes to his frame.
• Kansas City also added free-agent WR Marquise Brown this offseason. Brown is coming off a disappointing 2023 season in Arizona but topped 1,000 yards in 2021 and was on a 1,000-yard pace in 2022.
• WR Rashee Rice returns after a strong rookie season, but he’s expected to draw a multi-game suspension for his involvement in a street-racing accident in Dallas in late March.
• TE Travis Kelce is also back after leading the Chiefs with 8.1 targets per game last year.
• There’s plenty of receiving production to go around in Kansas City. The Chiefs have ranked top 8 in passing yards and TDs in all six seasons since QB Patrick Mahomes took over.
• Here’s where Kansas City has ranked in total WR PPR points under Mahomes:
  • 2018 - 8th
  • 2019 - 12th
  • 2020 - 8th
  • 2021 - 10th
  • 2022 - 15th
  • 2023 - 20th
• Worthy is the first Round 1 WR in the Mahomes era. The Chiefs have picked three WRs in Round 2 since 2018. Here’s where those guys ranked in PPR points per game as rookies:
  • Mecole Hardman - 79th
  • Skyy Moore - 151th
  • Rashee Rice - 27th