Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 3 Usage

Follow the Usage

Playing time and touches are the backbone of fantasy scoring. 

Chasing one-week box scores can be dangerous. Investing in players who are on the field and getting the football is more reliable.

That’s why we study playing time and usage every week during the season. It can give us a tangible edge in start/sit decisions, waiver moves, and trades.

Here are the top 10 takeaways from Week 3 usage:

1. Is Trey Benson A RB1 Now?

James Conner’s right ankle injury is the most impactful fantasy football injury of the season so far. Benson immediately becomes Arizona’s lead back and a fantasy starter. But how high does his ceiling climb?

Based on the nearly two quarters without Conner we saw in Week 3, Benson could flirt with RB1 production the rest of the way. Per Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland, Benson played 87% of Arizona’s snaps with a 50% route rate after Conner exited. For perspective, those rates would have ranked first and 15th, respectively, among RBs last year.

Benson likely won’t play 87% of the snaps the rest of the way. But he should dominate early-down work. And, while Emari Demercado is a capable pass-catching back, remember that Benson had already taken primary pass-catching duties from Conner before the injury. So I expect him to hang on to a big role in that department, too.

There’s a clear path to top-12 fantasy production here. And it’s tough to imagine Benson not scoring as a top-24 RB the rest of the way. There might still be an opportunity to trade for him at a slight discount before we see his first full game without Conner.

2. Quinshon Judkins Dominates Early-Down Work

Two games into his NFL career and Judkins has already earned early-down workhorse status. He handled 18 of Cleveland’s 19 carries in the Week 3 win over the Packers.

It’s deserved, too. Judkins has been awesome over the last two weeks, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with strong advanced metrics. The rookie ranks fourth in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt and first in yards after contact per attempt among 48 qualifying RBs.

Judkins also saw a boost in passing-down usage from Week 2 to Week 3, leading the backfield in routes vs. Green Bay. Ford still handled the vast majority of third-down and 2-minute snaps, though, which makes him the better target bet for now. 

Judkins wasn’t a prolific pass-catcher in college, so I wouldn’t bank on him earning a huge role in that department this year. But I would expect his passing-game usage to grow at least a bit more.

The Browns' offense remains a concern for Judkins, especially if one of the rookie QBs takes over. But Judkins has the role and talent to produce at least low-end RB2 numbers the rest of the way.

3. Jaylen Warren: The Workhorse Everyone's Missing

Warren scored a just-OK 13.1 PPR points in Week 3 and watched Gainwell vulture a 1-yard TD. But that masked some of the best usage of his entire career.

• His 78% snap rate was a career high.
• His 60% route rate was his fifth-highest mark.
• His 18 carries were a career high.
• And his 24 opportunities (carries + targets) were also a personal best.

Warren's snap rate, route rate, and carry share have all climbed each of the past two weeks. He's been the lead early-down back all along but has distanced himself from Gainwell. And Warren took over third-down duties in Week 3.

It's also worth noting that Warren out-carried Gainwell 2-1 inside the 5-yard line in Week 3 and holds a 4-2 lead on the season. Gainwell is not this team's goal-line back.

If this usage holds -- and I think it will at least in the short-term -- Warren will be an easy RB2 in fantasy lineups with weekly RB1 upside. The biggest risk here is the emergence of RB Kaleb Johnson, but that doesn't seem close to happening at this point. He played zero snaps in Week 3.

4. Is Chuba Hubbard Losing His Grip On The Panthers' Backfield?

This Panthers' backfield has been tough to peg.

• Week 1: Hubbard dominates early-down work and carries but cedes most of the passing-game snaps to Rico Dowdle.
• Week 2: Hubbard loses more carries to Dowdle but takes over as the clear passing-down back.
• Week 3: Somewhere in between, with Hubbard gaining some carry share but splitting passing-down snaps with Dowdle.

Adding to the unknown here is that the Panthers really haven't had a "normal" game so far. They were blown out by the Jaguars in Week 1 and blew out the Falcons in Week 3. Their Week 2 game against the Cardinals finished 27-22, but Carolina was down 20-3 at halftime and 27-3 early in the third quarter.

So we're still in wait-and-see mode with this backfield. Zooming out, though, the Panthers' offense has not been very good and will be without G Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett for the foreseeable future.

I'd consider Hubbard a mid- to low-end RB2 going forward and would look into selling him this week considering he's sitting 11th among RBs in PPR points.

5. Matthew Golden Gets Near Full-Time Role

This is about as condensed a WR corps as we'll get from HC Matt LaFleur. For perspective, there were only eight instances of a Packers WR other than Doubs topping an 80% route rate in a game all last season.

Golden did it in his very first game without WR Jayden Reed. The rookie came away from Week 3 with 4 catches for 52 yards. And that looks more impressive when you consider QB Jordan Love threw for just 183 yards.

Golden's 16% target share is underwhelming. And for the season, he has drawn a target on just 12.9% of his routes -- a rate that lands him outside the top-90 WRs. Target earning was an issue for Golden in college, too, so it's a situation to watch closely.

But the playing time Golden got in Week 3 gives him a chance to be a fantasy asset going forward (or at least until the return of Reed and/or Christian Watson). Week 4 presents a prime breakout opportunity vs. a barely there Cowboys pass defense.

6. Woody Marks' Ascent Continues

That's a steady upward trend for Marks in terms of both playing time and touches.

In Week 3, RB Dameon Pierce was a healthy scratch for the second straight game, while RB Dare Ogunbowale didn't play a single offensive snap. That left Marks as the clear No. 2 back to Nick Chubb on early downs and, more importantly, the primary passing-down back. Marks split third-down snaps with Chubb but dominated snaps in the 2-minute drill.

Marks was targeted on just two of his 19 routes vs. Jacksonville, but expect that rate to rise going forward. He was a high-volume pass catcher in college, racking up 261 grabs across five seasons.

If Marks can capture around half of the RB carries in addition to the passing-game work, he could turn into a viable RB3 or flex play, especially in PPR leagues. And it's possible that he overtakes Chubb in carries at some point, which would give Marks a path to RB2 value.

The rookie is an enticing target on waiver wires this week. He's still available in 82% of ESPN leagues.

7. Can We Trust Dalton Kincaid?

Kincaid turned in a 5-66-1 line and TE4 PPR finish in Week 3. He finished TE4 and TE17 the previous two weeks and sits sixth at the position in total points through three games.

Can we trust him as a weekly starter going forward? That's a tricky one.

The route rate and target share make me want to say no. But Kincaid sits tied for 12th among TEs in total targets and ranks 10th in expected PPR points per game. His three end-zone targets are tied for the position lead, and his seven red-zone targets are tied for seventh.

Kincaid will need to continue drawing targets at a high rate if his routes don't climb. But he's done it so far this year ... and did it last year. Before injuries hit in Week 10, Kincaid was targeted on 24% of his routes. That ranked sixth among TEs at the time.

Kincaid is certainly sell-able this week if you have another top 12ish TE on your roster. He's unlikely to finish the season as a top-6 TE and will be a volatile weekly producer.

But almost all TEs are volatile weekly producers. We can't be too picky at this position. And we know Kincaid boasts a lofty ceiling thanks to his talent and a high-scoring Bills offense. So, despite being a textbook "sell" by the numbers, Kincaid's fine to hang on to as your TE1.

8. Jordan Mason Is A Three-Down Workhorse (For Now)

The numbers above are from the from the entire game of Minnesota's 48-10 blowout win over the Vikings. If we omit the fourth quarter, when Mason barely played, he jumps to a 76% snap rate, 64% route rate, and 76% carry share.

He was a three-down workhorse and looked awesome, ripping off 116 yards and two scores on 16 carries (albeit against a bad Bengals defense).

The only nitpick here is that Mason saw zero targets. But the routes were there, so expect some receiving production to follow.

Mason projects as a fringe RB1 for as long as RB Aaron Jones is out.

9. Commanders Stick With Three-RB Committee

Washington's Week 3 backfield looked a lot like the one we saw over the first two games, with Rodriguez and McNichols basically splitting up Austin Ekeler's work.

Rodriguez got the start and handled all five RB carries across the first two possessions (as Ekeler had been doing). Croskey-Merritt got involved on drive No. 3 and out-carried Rodriguez 8-6 the rest of the way. McNichols mixed in for four carries and dominated passing-down work, playing 10 of 11 third-down and 2-minute snaps.

Here's where these guys ranked among RBs in expected PPR points for Week 3:

• Croskey-Merritt: 29th
• Rodriguez: 37th
• McNichols: 71st

It's worth noting that Rodriguez got five carries in the fourth quarter when the game was already decided vs. just one apiece for Croskey-Merritt and McNichols. I'd expect Croskey-Merritt to lead this backfield in carries in tighter games.

But the rookie will lose carries to Rodriguez and is getting very little action in the passing game. That leaves him stuck in RB3 territory for now. Rodriguez and McNichols are just desperation flex plays.

10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba Could Be A Top-5 Fantasy WR

One game of massive volume is cool. A second gets my attention. A third? It’s time to start taking Smith-Njigba seriously as an elite fantasy asset.

His 37.7% target share leads all players through three weeks. JSN also leads the league with a 55.6% share of his team’s air yards.

Despite playing in a run-leaning offense that sits just 29th in pass attempts, Smith-Njigba ranks:

• third among WRs in targets
• fifth in air yards
• eighth in expected PPR points per game

Smith-Njigba probably won’t maintain a 37.7% target share all season. But Seattle will also likely throw the ball at least a bit more going forward.

There’s nothing fluky about Smith-Njigba’s fantasy production so far. He sits fifth among WRs in PPR points per game and has a real chance to be inside the top 5 come season’s end.

Next Up

Week 4 Waiver Wire Pickups: Is Tre Tucker Worth Your Time?

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.