Fantasy Football Dynasty

Print

Dynasty Prospect Profile: Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Height: 6’2
Weight: 225
Age: 21.5

Combine Results

40-yard dash: 4.80 seconds
Vertical Jump: 30 inches
Broad Jump: 114 inches
3-Cone Drill: 6.88 seconds
20-yard Shuttle: 4.08 seconds

College Career

If Mahomes’ NFL team has him sit for at least a year, his right arm would probably be happy.

The former Red Raider threw more passes than anyone else in college football over the past 2 seasons and racked up some big numbers. Mahomes took over for good at the start of his sophomore season and finished 2015 with an FBS-leading 393 total yards per game.

Despite losing top receiver Jakeem Grant (90-1,268-10; 6^th-round pick by the Dolphins) and feature back DeAndre Washington (5^th-round pick by the Raiders), Mahomes led FBS in 2016 with 421 passing yards per game.

In doing so, he became just the 2^nd player ever to reach 5,000 yards of total offense (after ex-Houston QB Case Keenum). He also set the NCAA record for total offense in a game: 819 yards vs. Oklahoma. Mahomes earned 2^nd-team all-Big 12 honors, and he did so despite playing through a September sprain to the AC joint in his right (throwing) shoulder.

Mahomes also played through a sprained left MCL, which he suffered in September 2015, that put him in a knee brace for the rest of his sophomore campaign.

The son of longtime MLB pitcher Pat Mahomes didn’t start at QB in high school until his junior season but then threw for 4,619 yards and 50 TDs as a senior. At Texas Tech, Mahomes stepped in for an injured Davis Webb in the final 4 games of his true freshman season. Coaches liked what he did enough to stick with Mahomes the following season. Webb transferred to Cal and is also eligible for this year’s draft.

Film Study

(Courtesy of DraftBreakdown.com)
Games watched: West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, TCU (2015), Arkansas (2015), LSU (2015)

Mahomes is fun to watch. He brings plenty of arm, exciting mobility and the guts to try throws he probably shouldn’t.

Here’s my favorite line from the scouting reports I read …

“He’s got a great arm, big balls and he’s mobile,” an NFC exec told NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein. He is going to drive his head coach crazy for the first couple of years and there is no getting around that. If it clicks for him and he’s coachable, I think he could become a special quarterback.”

Mahomes flashes that arm plenty on gorgeous deep balls.

He can also drive the ball down the middle of the field when he needs to hit a target between defenders.

Even this incomplete toss – call it a drop or a breakup by the DB – shows off how Mahomes can fire a pass out of a pocket so congested that he can’t step into the throw.

Then there’s the convergence of mobility with arm strength. Mahomes didn’t run a blazing 40 time, but he’s athletic, willing to run and often unwilling to give up on a play until he has to. He’s strong and agile enough to elude rushers with plenty of arm to make throws on the move.

Here are a few samples from the Texas Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, in which LSU constantly harassed Mahomes in the pocket.

And let’s finish with the QB just keeping it and picking up yardage himself in a 2015 win at Arkansas that saw him run for 58 yards and 2 scores.

Keep in mind when you look at Mahomes’ rushing numbers that college stats subtract yards lost on sacks from the QB’s rushing total. He’s a much more effective runner than a career 2.7 yards per carry would suggest.

Fantasy Potential

Mahomes’ NFL career appears to have a wide range of potential outcomes—perhaps the widest of any QB in this year’s class.

WalterFootball.com spoke with NFL team sources that said they rate him anywhere from a 2^nd-round pick to a 4^th-rounder. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel quoted 1 “veteran scout” that compared Mahomes with John Elway … and another who said: “He could (develop) but I don’t see it. He has no vision, no mechanics. He’s erratic as hell. Makes a lot of mistakes.” NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport passed along that some in the league consider Mahomes the position’s top prospect this year.

Where fans and detractors agree is that he needs work: mechanics, reading defenses, pocket awareness. The Texas Tech offense of recent years has proved exceedingly friendly to QBs and produced several big-number college passers who did nothing in the pros.

Fortunately, we fantasy owners don’t really need to figure out whether Mahomes will work long term. He’s not a 1^st-round pick in your dynasty rookie draft. But he does have a chance to deliver value from Round 2 on (depending on your need and the other rookies available).

Mahomes brings the rushing ability and proven production to help drive his early NFL numbers. And he has plenty of arm to complement that with the passing he’ll need to score consistently.

Is he a can’t-miss prospect? Not even close. But if he lands in the right spot and puts in the work, Mahomes could deliver big-time fantasy value for years.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.