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Week 12 Quarterback Preview: No Burrow, No Problem
Let's break down the key usage notes and matchups that are driving our Week 12 QB Rankings.
Top Fantasy QBs for Week 12
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1. Drake Maye, Patriots
Drake Maye
NE QB1
Maye's finished as a QB1 in eight of his past ten matchups, a stretch that includes three top-three weeks. The ceiling remains high this week against a Bengals defense that’s allowed the second-most passing yards per game.
2. Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Jalen Hurts
PHI QB2
We can’t ignore that Hurts has delivered two of his three lowest fantasy scores of the season coming out of the bye. Those games featured his two lowest completion rates as well. But they also came against well-performing defenses. The Packers and Lions rank ninth and sixth, respectively, in total DVOA. Dallas sits 31st, so we’ll go ahead and bet on a Week 12 bounce back.
3. Josh Allen, Bills
Allen played on Thursday.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
KC QB4
Mahomes scuffled in his last two games, which came on the road against a pair of AFC contenders. The conference's top-seed is on deck this week, but the game is in Kansas City. The Indianapolis defense has been solid against QBs, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points to the position. Mahomes has been especially potent at home, accounting for 16 TDs in five games at Arrowhead. Expect a strong performance from Mahomes as he tries to keep the Chiefs in the AFC postseason picture.
5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Lamar Jackson
BAL QB5
Jackson is in the midst of a two-game mini-slump. Last week was his worst fantasy outing of the season, and he threw for just 176 yards and 1 TD in Minnesota in Week 10. Jackson hasn't been running as much since returning from a hamstring injury, which helps explain the muted production. However, Week 12 brings relief in the form of a Jets' defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs. Jackson has a good chance at getting back on track here, which makes him a top-5 fantasy option in Week 12.
6. Matthew Stafford, Rams
Matthew Stafford
LAR QB6
We’re willing to overlook Stafford’s 130-2 line from Week 12. He faced a strong Seattle pass defense, while the matchup improves this week against Tampa Bay. The Bucs sit bottom five in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
7. Brock Purdy, 49ers
Brock Purdy
SF QB7
Purdy sure looked healthy enough last week, shredding the Cardinals for 200 yards and 3 scores on just 26 passes. He's now finished QB14, QB12, and QB7 in fantasy points in his three games this year. Monday night's matchup against the Panthers isn't scary. Carolina sits 12th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs but 27th in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. The 49ers are implied for a strong 28.25 points.
8. Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett
ARI QB8
The Cardinals will remain without Marvin Harrison Jr., but that certainly didn’t limit Brissett last week vs. San Francisco. Brissett set the single-game record for completions (47) while notching a strong 82.4% completion rate. He remains in the QB1 mix against the Jacksonville pass defense.
9. Jared Goff, Lions
Jared Goff
DET QB9
Goff has averaged 256.8 passing yards and 2.5 TDs in four home games this year, vs. 243.8 and 1.8 in six road trips. This home date finds a generous Giants D that ranks eighth-friendliest to QBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
10. Caleb Williams, Bears
Caleb Williams
CHI QB10
Williams had another disappointing outing, throwing for 196 yards and no TDs last week. His 26 yards rushing didn’t do enough to create a solid fantasy performance. The Steelers' defense has improved recently, but they are volatile. While Williams' rushing could move him to back-end QB1 numbers, he remains a risk.
11. Sam Darnold, Seahawks
Sam Darnold
SEA QB11
Darnold’s four-interception game last week was a stark contrast to how the rest of his season had gone. Despite the poor outing, this is a great bounce-back spot for him against the Titans. They are 22nd in passing points allowed per attempt and struggle against the play action pass (the hallmark of the Seahawks offense). Darnold should be a low-end QB1 with upside if the game can remain close into the second half.
12. Joe Burrow, Bengals
Joe Burrow
CIN QB12
(Burrow was ruled out on Saturday. Joe Flacco will step in and projects as a fantasy QB2.)
13. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Dak Prescott
DAL QB13
Prescott came off the bye to deliver a big rebound performance against the Raiders. That marked the fifth time in seven games that he threw 3+ TD passes. So there’s upside. But the Philly defense has also improved coming off its bye, limiting the Packers and Lions to just 16 combined points. The Eagles now sport the No. 8 scoring defense for the season.
14. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
TB QB14
Baker's thrown for more than one passing TD in just one of his past four outings. Now he draws a tough Rams pass D that’s allowed only 6.6 yards per attempt and only 12 passing scores through ten games. On the positive side? Chris Godwin could return this week, while the Rams will be without starting S Quentin Lake.
15. Daniel Jones, Colts
Daniel Jones
IND QB15
After a week off, the Colts head to Kansas City for a rough matchup against a Chiefs' defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to signal-callers. The Chiefs have been particularly tough at home, where they're allowing just 158.2 passing yards per game with only 4 TD passes allowed. Jones is the QB5 for the season, but this is a tough spot for QBs. Consider Jones a mid-range QB2 in Week 12.
16. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
JAC QB16
Lawrence has finished between QB10 and QB14 in four of his past five matchups. We’ll see if Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) makes it back for Sunday, but the Jags are implied for a solid 25.25 points at Arizona, signaling some QB1 upside in Lawrence.
17. Jordan Love, Packers
Jordan Love
GB QB17
Over the past two games without TE Tucker Kraft, Love has completed just 55% of his passes at 5.8 yards per attempt with two total TDs. He's finished QB23 and QB11 in fantasy points those two weeks. We could see Green Bay throw more this weekend if RB Josh Jacobs is out, but that still wouldn't be enough to make Love a comfortable start in 1-QB leagues. The Vikings rank 13th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.
18. Jameis Winston, Giants
Winston offered limited production in his first Giants start but faced a challenging Packers D. The Lions this week rate even better in pass D but have proved friendlier to QB scoring for the season (14th in our adjusted fantasy points allowed). That’s not enough to make Winston an attractive play, but we know he presents upside for superflex lineups and deep 1-QB streaming situations. It would help if WR Darius Slayton’s ready to return from the hamstring injury that kept him out against Green Bay.
19. Bryce Young, Panthers
Bryce Young
CAR QB19
Young's 448-yard, 3-TD outing last week was one of the most surprising results of the season. He'd TOTALED 364 yards and 1 TD over his previous three games. We're not ready to trust Young in 1-QB fantasy lineups, but he's at least an intriguing QB2 for Monday night's plus matchup vs. San Francisco's 22nd-ranked QB defense. The 49ers have allowed multiple passing scores in four straight games and six of their last seven.
20. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
J.J. McCarthy
MIN QB20
McCarthy just laid an egg in a great spot at home for the Bears. Now he heads on the road for a Packers defense that ranks 12th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. The Vikings are implied for just 17.25 points in this one. McCarthy is a shaky QB2 in fantasy lineups.
21. Tyler Shough, Saints
Tyler Shough
NO QB21
Shough has improved in each of his 4 starts. In his last game, he completed 70% of his throws for 282 yards and a pair of TD throws in the Saints' 17-7 win over Carolina. After a week off, Shough and the Saints host an Atlanta defense that has started to fade. Over their last three games, the Falcons have allowed 962 passing yards and 6 TD passes. Still, Shough is a low-end QB2 who should only be in fantasy lineups in Superflex leagues.
22. Geno Smith, Raiders
Geno Smith
LVR QB22
Smith faltered against the worst pass defense in the league in the Cowboys, only throwing for 238 yards and a TD. The Raiders' O-line just couldn’t hold up against a blitzing Cowboys team. Now he faces a blitzing Browns defense that should give him fits. Smith should be benched if possible.
23. Davis Mills, Texans
Mills played on Thursday.
24. Tyrod Taylor, Jets
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ QB24
Aaron Glenn has decided to go back to Taylor as his Week 12 starter. That's good news for New York's pass catchers, but not necessarily good news for fantasy managers. After a rough start, the Ravens' defense has shored up. Baltimore has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks. View Taylor as a middling QB2 in Superflex leagues.
25. Mason Rudolph, Steelers
Mason Rudolph
PIT QB25
Rudolph will fill in for Aaron Rodgers if he can't go this week. Last year for the Titans, Rudolph finished QB20 or higher in 5 of his 6 starts, though the volume and pace of play will be worse for the Steelers. Expect Pittsburgh to lean on the run game no matter who the QB is, making Rudolph a Superflex-only play.
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