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Week 12 Fantasy Football Quarterback Preview

Top Fantasy QBs for Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Mahomes hasn't shown much of a ceiling this year, topping 23 fantasy points only once. He's yet to post a game under 18.5, though. And Sunday certainly turns up a nice scoring spot against Carolina, as the Chiefs are implied for nearly 27 points. High pass volume just isn’t likely in this one. Teams facing Carolina have combined for the fourth-lowest pass rate over expected.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Sam Darnold, Vikings

Darnold didn’t play well early last week against the Jaguars, but he picked it up for a QB1 performance. The Bears have a stout pass defense, though, and are allowing the fewest fantasy points passing per game this season. Darnold is more of a mid-range QB2.

Caleb Williams, Bears

The new offense under OC Thomas Brown worked well to get Williams comfortable, but they got the pass out quickly to avoid pressure. Screen passes appeared to be the go to. Expect more of the same, which limits Williams’ upside, especially against a top-10 Vikings pass defense.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud, Texans

Stroud was not at his best in last week's win over the Cowboys, throwing for 257 scoreless yards. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, though, and is now at 7.8 yards per attempt in six games with WR Nico Collins this season. Stroud is in a nice spot this weekend at home for the Titans, who rank 18th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Will Levis, Titans

Levis has tossed 3 TDs vs. just 1 INTs over the past two weeks, while also running for 59 yards. He's finished QB9 and QB20 in fantasy points. Levis is back on the radar in 2-QB and superflex leagues -- but he has a challenging Week 12 matchup against the Texans, who rank fourth in pass defense DVOA.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Jared Goff, Lions

Goff shouldn’t be working for fantasy right now. He sits just 30th among QBs in expected points per game. That’s primarily because he ranks just 28th in pass attempts per game. But the hyper-efficiency has continued, including four games of 80+% completion rates over just the past five weeks. Last week gave us the ultimate: 412 yards and 4 TDs on just 29 attempts. This week brings not nearly as positive a matchup as Jacksonville. But the Colts rank just 19th in pass DVOA. And Vegas has the Lions projected for 29.25 points, 1.5 more than any other team on the Week 12 slate and 2.25 more than No. 3 Baltimore.

Anthony Richardson, Colts

If we could be sure that last week’s version of Richardson would show up this Sunday, then our current Week 12 projections for him would probably be too low. That game marked a career-high completion rate (66.7%) and yards per attempt (9.1) for Richardson among games where he attempted at least 20 passes. It also delivered his highest fantasy total to date – against a Jets D that had been tough. Those Jets have showed leaks, though. And we’ve seen more shaky Richardson than good this season. The rushing raises his fantasy floor, and the Colts incorporated more designed runs for the QB last week than in any other game this season. But the matchup carries downside risk. The Lions rank second in pass-defense DVOA and have yet to allow more than 1 TD pass to any QB.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Tua's completed 77.6% of his passes since returning from a concussion. However, he’s finished as a top-12 QB only once over that stretch. The Patriots turn up a neutral fantasy matchup. But note: They're 30th in pass defense DVOA; 23rd in PFF's coverage grades.

Drake Maye, Patriots

Maye has finished as a top-15 QB in five of six starts. He’s delivered for fantasy managers with 41 rushing yards per outing. The Miami matchup simply looks brutal, as they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. Only three QBs all season have hit 20 fantasy points against the Dolphins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers

Mayfield has been stellar this year, sitting top-five in the league in completion and TD rate. After a rough stretch, he gets Mike Evans back and faces a Giants defense that's bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Mayfield is a clear QB1.

Tommy DeVito, Giants

DeVito enters as the starter, and his rushing gives him solid fantasy upside. He averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game last year, but now has Malik Nabers to throw to. The Bucs defense is bottom five in the league in passing fantasy points given up per game, so DeVito is a QB2 streaming option.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Daniels has stunk fantasy wise the past two weeks, but he did so in tough matchups. First came a dud against a Steelers D that has yielded the third-fewest QB points per game for the season. And then came a quiet night against the Eagles, who rank fourth in that category. Even that game, though, found Daniels playing decently (68.8% completions). This week finds a cushier spot against a Dallas D that has allowed 27+ points in five straight games. The Cowboys sit just 29th in total defensive DVOA and against the pass.

Cooper Rush, Cowboys

45 yards, then 354 yards. Let’s go ahead and set our expectations somewhere in between those two numbers this week. Even amid last week’s high passing output, Rush took 5 sacks, threw an INT, and fumbled twice. He’s not a guy to trust in your lineup unless you need to.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Bo Nix, Broncos

Nix's QB4 finish last week gives him five top-12 outings among his last seven. Only four QBs have averaged more fantasy points per game over that stretch. We have no choice but to consider the rookie a rock-solid QB1 play in Week 12 against the Raiders' 23rd-ranked QB defense.

Gardner Minshew, Raiders

Minshew's Raiders have a 17.5-point implied total vs. the Broncos' fourth-ranked QB defense this weekend. He threw for 137 yards, one TD, and two INTs before getting benched in the third quarter of the Week 5 meeting with Denver.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Brock Purdy, 49ers

George Kittle is on track to return for San Francisco – an excellent development after Purdy's underwhelming Week 11. He draws a Packers pass D that’s played well this season. They've surrendered 226 yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game. We'll just have to track Purdy's status after he popped up on the injury report with a shoulder.

Jordan Love, Packers

Following a strong start, Love has finished at QB32, QB28, and QB11 over the past three weeks. The QB11 line included his first rushing score since Week 17 of 2023. Next up is a 49ers defense that might be without ace pass rusher Nick Bosa.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Murray has been a QB1 in four of his past six games and is getting on a bit of a roll. His rushing upside creates spike week opportunities, even when the passing volume isn’t there. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a QB1 performance in the past five weeks, but have their warts giving up the big play. Start Murray with confidence.

Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith was efficient against the 49ers last week and ran for a TD. The passing volume means more scoring could come. The Cardinals have only allowed three QB1 performances this season and are tougher than they appear, but Smith’s efficiency with the volume makes him a low-end QB1. 

Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams

Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Hurts had a relative down week against Washington last time out, posting his lowest fantasy score since Week 4 and his third-lowest of the season. Yet even that point total would rank seventh at the position for the year in scoring average.

Matthew Stafford, Rams

The Eagles have allowed just 2 total TD passes over the past six games. That doesn’t mean Stafford and his stud wideouts can’t work out in fantasy this week. He threw 4 TD passes in Week 8 against a Minnesota D that ranks first in pass DVOA. But it’ll be a challenge. And Stafford showed us his floor with 0 TDs and just 15 team points despite 293 passing yards vs. Miami in his last home game.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers

Lamar Jackson, Ravens

Jackson posted a rare dud last week against Pittsburgh, a divisional opponent that also slowed him down in 2023. The Chargers supply a neutral matchup but just allowed a big 32.6 fantasy points to Joe Burrow. Keep expectations high for Jackson.

Justin Herbert, Chargers

Since Week 8, Herbret's finished as the QB9, QB13, QB7, and QB6. Next up: a pass-funnel Ravens defense that’s allowed five QBs to hit 28 fantasy points this season.

Week 12 Preview

Join Matt Schauf and Jared Smola as they preview the upcoming NFL slate:

Kevin English, Senior Analyst

Kevin brings 15 years of experience as a fantasy analyst and mid-stakes competitor across various formats (redraft, best ball, dynasty, DFS). His work has been featured on The Mercury News, Rotoworld, and FantasyPros.