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        Is THIS the Year to Stop Drafting Kyren Williams?

        The Rams are talking committee after drafting yet another RB. Should you believe them ... or buy Kyren Williams at a discount? And does Davante Adams mean trouble for Puka Nacua? Let's break it all down.
        By Matt Schauf | Updated on Thu, Jul 10 2025 7:54 PM UTC
        Is THIS the Year to Stop Drafting Kyren Williams?

         

        Los Angeles Rams 2025 Overview

        Schedule

        Week 1 vs. HOU Week 10 at SF
        Week 2 at TEN Week 11 vs. SEA
        Week 3 at PHI Week 12 vs. TB
        Week 4 vs. IND Week 13 at CAR
        Week 5 vs. SF Week 14 at ARI
        Week 6 at BAL Week 15 vs. DET
        Week 7 at JAC Week 16 at SEA
        Week 8 BYE Week 17 at ATL
        Week 9 vs. NO Week 18 vs. ARI

         

        Wins

        2024

        10

        2025 Over/Under

        9.5

         

        Play Calling

        2024 2025 Projections
        Plays Per Game 61.2 62.6
        Pass Rate 56.7% 56.9%
        Run Rate 43.3% 43.1%

        Key Additions

        • WR Davante Adams
        • RB Jarquez Hunter
        • TE Terrance Ferguson

        Key Departures

        • WR Cooper Kupp
        • WR Demarcus Robinson

        Notable Coaching Changes

        • None

        Matthew Stafford

        Headshot of Matthew Stafford

        Bottom Line: Stafford’s Not Gonna Win Your Season

        Stafford remains a good enough QB for the offense and should boost his production vs. last year. But there’s not an attractive ceiling to chase. He’s merely a later QB2 with upside into higher QB2 range.

        2024 Summary

        Stafford Posts Lackluster Numbers

        Stafford posted the second-fewest fantasy points per game of his career last season and finished his third straight year south of 4,000 passing yards.

        He did finish four of 16 weeks among the top 9 fantasy QBs but just two other weeks inside the top 20. That included nine weeks of finishing QB22 or lower.

        Stafford averaged just 235.1 passing yards per game. That came two years after Stafford averaged 231.9 per game -- both rates well below his career average of 269.4 yards per game.

        The QB also fell short of 4% passing-TD rate for the second time in the past three years, though he added the lowest INT rate (1.5%) for any season in which he has played more than three games.

        Deeper Metrics Reveal Nothing Too Concerning

        There was some luck in that last stat. Stafford tied the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career, according to Pro Football Focus. His PFF passing grade also reverted from a career high in 2023 to its second-lowest among the past nine seasons.

        Stafford’s completion rate and yards per pass attempt fell right in line with the rest of his career, however. And he posted the second-best passing-success rate of his career, according to Pro Football Reference.

        Overall, the Rams remained one of the stronger pass offenses in spite of injuries at receiver. They ranked 10th in pass-offense DVOA for the year while earning their highest rating in the category among Stafford’s four seasons with the team.

        Injured, Shallow WR Corps Challenged Stafford’s Efforts 

        Stafford faced the challenge of losing his top two wideouts for a combined 11 games.

        Puka Nacua entered the year already dealing with a PCL sprain that he aggravated in the opener. Nacua left that game early and spent the next five on IR. He remained limited his first two games back -- 57% and 35% playing time -- before getting back near his normal role for Week 10.

        Cooper Kupp followed with a Week 2 high-ankle sprain that cost him four games surrounding the Week 6 bye. He stayed on the field after that return but performed like a declining player.

        Kupp matched his career low for yards per catch and set a new low in yards per target. The Rams then consciously uncoupled with the 31-year-old after the season.

        Even with their missed time, Nacua and Kupp easily led the team in targets. Demarcus Robinson’s 64 ranked third, trailing No. 2 Kupp by 36.

        QB Hasn’t Approached 2021’s Heights Since Then

        Stafford finished last season just 27th in fantasy points per game among multi-game starters at QB. That continued his big swings in production with the Rams.

        Stafford finished 2021 as QB11 in fantasy points per game, the year L.A. won the Super Bowl. That season included a career-high-tying 41 TD passes on a career-best 6.8% TD rate. (He’s at 4.6% for his career.)

        He followed that year with rankings of QB31 and QB18 in points per game, leading up to last year.

        2025 Expectations

        Stafford Might Have the Best Pass-Catching Group Since He Arrived

        The Rams admitted with their post-season moves that last year’s WR corps wasn’t good enough. Shortly after dumping Kupp, they signed Davante Adams to a two-year deal. Adams happens to be about six months older than Kupp but did not show the former Ram’s signs of decline in 2024.

        Adams hasn’t spent nearly as much time in the slot as Kupp for his career and sports a career average target depth 2.5 yards deeper than Kupp’s. But Adams did see his largest share of slot snaps by a wide margin in 2024. His 11 games with the Jets, in fact, found Adams running 52% of his pass snaps from the slot, according to PFF.

        A shorter aDOT (second-shortest of his career) also led to Adams’ most yards after catch per reception since his 2014 rookie year. Perhaps the Rams looked at that and saw a better version of Kupp, who spent 63.5% of his snaps in the slot as a Ram.

        Adams joins Nacua, who probably hasn’t even hit his prime yet (turned 24 in May). The Rams also paid WR Tutu Atwell $10 million on a one-year deal to keep him off the free-agent market.

        Tight End Stronger as Well

        At TE, they’ll get a full season of Tyler Higbee after he missed all but the final three regular-season games while recovering from an ACL tear. And the team drafted upside TE Terrance Ferguson in Round 2.

        Ferguson caught 117 passes across three seasons at Oregon and then delivered elite speed and athleticism testing at the Combine.

        Rams Passing Volume Has Been Shrinking

        Besides the aforementioned career-high TD rate that boosted Stafford’s 2021 production, there’s another key reason we shouldn’t expect him to approach that ceiling again. HC Sean McVay doesn’t want him to pass that much.

        Just check out the Rams’ annual pass rates since McVay arrived:

        • 2017: 54.6%
        • 2018: 56.7%
        • 2019: 62%
        • 2020: 56.5%
        • 2021: 60.3% (Stafford arrives)
        • 2022: 58.9%
        • 2023: 56.4%
        • 2024: 56.7%

        That 2019 campaign marked Todd Gurley’s last with the team, when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. That team also got Kupp’s breakout season, prime Robert Woods, and 26-year-old Brandin Cooks.

        The 2021 Rams had Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson splitting backfield work and Kupp’s most dominant year (as our Comeback Player), along with the flashy new QB.

        The Rams’ trend in neutral-situation passing seems to point even more clearly toward McVay moving things to the ground …

        • 2017: 58.0% (highest in the league)
        • 2018: 56.9% (eighth)
        • 2019: 57.5% (fourth)
        • 2020: 57.6% (ninth)
        • 2021: 58.0% (fifth)
        • 2022: 51.7% (14th)
        • 2023: 54.5% (12th)
        • 2024: 51.0% (20th)

        Stafford missed eight games in 2022, and last year featured the WR injuries and Higbee absence we already discussed. So don’t be surprised if there’s a bit more passing volume in 2025. But also don’t expect Stafford to return to 600 attempts.

        Even if something happens to RB Kyren Williams, the Rams have drafted Blake Corum (Round 3) and Jarquez Hunter (Round 4) the past two years.

        Kyren Williams

        Headshot of Kyren Williams

        Bottom Line: He's Still Got RB1 Juice

        Williams has two years of RB1 production in an offense we’ve learned to trust for fantasy output. There’s some risk of workload decrease in 2025. But an early ADP on the RB1 fringe says the market might be overreacting. Williams remains a good fantasy play.

        2024 Summary

        Williams Delivers RB1 Production, But with Fewer Spikes

        Williams finished his second starting season as the No. 7 RB in total PPR points; No. 9 in points per game. He finished even higher in other formats, thanks to a second straight season of strong TD production.

        Williams fared even better on a per-game basis the year before, ranking second among RBs across formats.

        His 2024 included seven top-12 PPR finishes among 16 appearances. That was actually down from 2023, when he posted nine such weeks among 12 games.

        Receiving Usage Declines, But Goal-Line Dominance Stays

        Williams’ carries per game actually picked up in 2024 vs. his breakout campaign, rising from 19.0 to 19.8. His opportunity share (carries plus targets) saw a slight decrease, from 23% in 2023 to 22.3% last season. Williams went from first in the category to fourth, though even his smaller share would have led in 2023 as well.

        The decline came in receiving. Williams drew eight fewer targets last season vs. the year before despite playing four more games. His receptions per game dipped from 2.7 to 2.1, and his yards per catch declined for the second straight year.

        The Rams have perennially ranked at or near the bottom of the league in RB receptions since 2019. Last year did find these decreases vs. 2023:

        • Team RB reception share from 13.3% to 12.8%
        • Williams route share from 63.4% to 58.8% (adjusted for games missed)
        • Williams target share from 10.7% to 7.3%

        Williams did, however, control goal-line work for the second straight year. Only Derrick Henry drew a larger percentage of his team’s carries inside the five-yard line, according to Pro Football Reference. Williams led the league in share of carries inside the 20 and inside the 10.

        Williams’ Efficiency Dips Despite Better Blocking

        In addition to his yards per catch falling to 5.4, Williams lost 0.9 off his rushing average, dipping to 4.1 yards per carry. Nearly all of that appeared to come before contact. Here’s how his yards per rush broke down the past two years, according to PFR:

        • 2023: 3.0 yards before contact; 2.0 after contact
        • 2024: 2.2 yards before contact; 1.9 after contact

        PFF, on the other hand, charged more of the difference to post-contact running. Including postseason play, PFF had these rates for Williams:

        • 2023: 5.0 yards per rush -- 3.27 after contact
        • 2024: 4.2 yards per rush -- 2.75 after contact

        Either way, the blocking didn’t appear to be the problem. The Rams actually increased their adjusted line yards from 4.55 per attempt in 2023 to 4.65 last year.

        The Curious Progression of Williams’ Season

        The offense on whole dipped only slightly vs. 2023, ranking 10th in offensive DVOA (9.8%) after finishing seventh in 2023 (12.2%).

        Williams spent all of 2024 as much more of a known entity than in his 2023 breakthrough. And multi-game injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the first half of the season challenged his landscape even further.

        Week 10 marked Nacua’s return to near-full usage. Through Week 9, Williams averaged 1.91 yards after contact per carry, according to Fantasy Points Data. From Week 10 on, that number climbed to 2.29.

        Interestingly, though, Williams also went from 19.1 expected PPR points per game over the early stretch to just 14.9 per game from Week 10 on.

        2025 Expectations

        Rams to Alter RB Usage? We’ll See …

        We’re expecting Williams to remain the clear leader of the Rams’ backfield, but there’s reason to wonder if the team will shift the workload distribution.

        GM Les Snead said on The Rich Eisen Show after the draft: “We do think the way this NFL season’s going — the amount of wear and tear that goes into playing running back — that having a committee, and a committee with different skill sets, only helps us continue being able to run the football like we want to run it.”

        At the same time, though, McVay has indicated throughout the offseason that contract-extension talks between Williams and the team seem to be going well -- and that he hopes to keep the RB around.

        “He knows how important he is to us,” McVay said at the April league meetings. “He is a very important part of what we want to be moving forward.”

        The Rams drafted Corum in Round 3 last year but barely got him onto the field as a rookie. They added Jarquez Hunter in Round 4 this year, and McVay has highlighted the potential for Hunter’s speed to add a different element to the backfield.

        We’ll watch through training camp and the preseason for more hints at the specific plan.

        Offense Should Benefit from O-line Stability, Receiving Upgrades

        The O-line should look just about the same as last year’s version. The Rams did bring back C Coleman Shelton, who started for them in 2022 and 2023 before spending last year with the Bears.

        It certainly wouldn’t hurt if G Steve Avila and T Rob Havenstein can stay healthier. They missed seven and six games, respectively, in 2024 — though the unit performed well anyway.

        The pass-catching corps will almost certainly be stronger. Nacua remained terrific after returning from injury last season. And a snap share nearly 20 percentage points behind his 2023 mark indicates we probably didn’t even see much of him at full strength.

        The Rams dumped Cooper Kupp in the offseason and replaced him with Davante Adams. There’s some risk to a 32-year-old WR, but the combo of moves clearly indicates the team views Adams as an upgrade.

        And the TEs should be better with a healthy Tyler Higbee and athletic rookie Terrance Ferguson.

        The enhanced receiving group should be more of a positive for the offense on whole than a negative for Williams’ opportunity share.

        Strong RB Environment … But a New Challenge?

        McVay’s history has found him leaning on a lead back much more often than spreading the work around. He and Snead have publicly pondered the benefits of deploying more of a work share. But we’ll watch for more details on the 2025 plan.

        In any case, McVay’s offense should remain friendly to RB production overall. The Rams have actually trended toward less passing in recent seasons. Check out their neutral-situation pass rates since McVay arrived:

        • 2017: 58.0% (highest in the league)
        • 2018: 56.9% (eighth)
        • 2019: 57.5% (fourth)
        • 2020: 57.6% (ninth)
        • 2021: 58.0% (fifth)
        • 2022: 51.7% (14th)
        • 2023: 54.5% (12th)
        • 2024: 51.0% (20th)

        Matthew Stafford missed eight games in 2022, and we already discussed the key WR injuries over the first half of last season. So we should probably expect a rate more like 2023’s than the two surrounding years.

        But that would still mean more rushing vs. McVay’s first five seasons.

        Blake Corum

        Headshot of Blake Corum

        Bottom Line: Wait for Clarity Before Buying Rams RB2

        There’s value to the No. 2 RB role with the Rams, but it’s not worth committing to Corum or Jarquez Hunter before the team reveals its hierarchy. Bet on a backfield split should Kyren Williams go down, which would limit the usefulness of both players.

        2024 Summary

        Get Your Microscope to Find Corum’s Rookie Contributions

        Corum allegedly debuted with the 2024 Rams, but it was difficult to find evidence.

        He went without a touch in three of the team’s first four games. The outlier in that range came via eight late rushing attempts in a Week 2 drubbing at Arizona.

        That carry total would remain a season high for the third-round rookie. Corum got more involved from Week 5 on, but he averaged just 4.0 carries and 0.6 targets per game from then through Week 17.

        He got the Week 18 start when the Rams benched their regulars, but he fractured his right forearm in the first quarter, after just 2 carries and 1 reception.

        He Did Play No. 2 … Just Miles Behind No. 1

        Despite his light usage throughout the season, Corum did qualify as the No. 2 back in a situation dominated by Kyren Williams for the second straight year. Although Williams’ opportunity share (carries plus targets) dipped slightly from a league-high 23.0% to 22.3%, that lower rate still would have been enough to lead the league the year before.

        Corum also trailed Williams in yards per carry — 4.1 to 3.6 — and Pro Football Reference’s rushing success rate (50.9% vs. 43.1%).

        Efficiency Metrics

        Of course, it’s tough to truly compare efficiency between two guys when one dominates backfield work and the other barely plays. So let’s look back to the last time Corum and Williams were on semi-equal footing.

        Williams left Notre Dame after his third season. Playing at different schools obviously keeps the situations from being truly even. But let’s compare some key metrics from the third college season for each player:

        The college numbers don't look all that different between Blake Corum and Kyren Williams.

        Not a whole lot of difference between those profiles. And it’s worth remembering that Corum arrived via Round 3 just a year ago

        2025 Expectations

        Corum's Climb Gets Steeper with Rookie Competition

        Corum’s proximity to Williams in college stats and earlier draft round (Williams went Round 5) certainly don’t mean he’s about to challenge the starter’s role. We’ve now seen two straight years of Williams dominating L.A.’s backfield to a degree few RBs anywhere have rivaled.

        And now Corum faces another challenge in the form of fourth-round rookie Jarquez Hunter. Just after the team moved up 10 spots to draft Hunter, cameras caught McVay saying: “There’s no question that’s who I want. I didn’t think we’d be able to get him today unless we did that. That was my top player for today.”

        Hunter stands similar to Williams and Corum in size but brings more speed. His 4.44-second 40 time at the Combine rated 90th percentile for the position.

        Hunter also never reached 200 carries in a college season, though, and didn’t reach 200 touches in a season until his senior year.

        Will They Compete or Complement?

        Expect Corum and Hunter to compete for the No. 2 spot in the backfield. But it seems more likely that they get differently styled touches, with Corum focused between the tackles and coaches seeking to work Hunter in space.

        Let’s add Hunter’s third college season to the Williams-Corum table above. Despite the differences in style, you’ll see not much separation in the stat profiles:

        The college numbers for Jarquez Hunter don't beat Blake Corum's or Kyren Williams' in any clear way.

        It’s also likely that both Corum and Hunter remain way behind Williams and split work if he goes down.


        Puka Nacua

        Headshot of Puka Nacua

        Bottom Line: Don't Bet Against Puka

        It’s fair to wonder whether Nacua faces a scary target-share threat with Davante Adams’ arrival. But the third-year man has history with Matthew Stafford and an electric start to his career. We’ll go ahead and bet on his ascension continuing and comfortably take him in Round 1.

        2024 Summary

        Nacua Stayed a WR1 Machine When Healthy

        Nacua finished just 26th in total PPR points in his second season, thanks to six missed games. (More on that later.)

        But he checked in fourth among WRs in points per game, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase, Rashee Rice, and Chris Godwin. Take out the Week 1 and Week 9 games he left early, and Nacua jumps to second in points per game.

        Those other nine weeks included just two PPR finishes outside the top 20 WRs and none lower than WR30. Nacua reached the top 15 six times, including four weekly finishes of ninth or better.

        And despite a knee injury that could have threatened to derail the whole season, the guy won on both usage and performance.

        Year 2 Brought Tremendous Usage

        We all know Nacua debuted as a shocking fantasy stud in 2023. That included tying for seventh among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

        Well, he improved on that — and many other metrics — in his second season.

        Nacua checked in fourth in expected PPR points per game last year, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, and Davante Adams. If we check only the nine weeks he didn’t leave early, Nacua jumps to second behind Chase.

        And he did all that despite not reaching 80% playing time in a game until Week 16. Nacua played 87.1% of Rams snaps for the season as a rookie, falling short of 80% in just three of his 17 games.

        And Puka Delivered Tremendous Efficiency

        Let’s start with a seeming negative. Nacua declined from 14.2 yards per catch in 2023 to 12.5 last season. But it’s not hard to explain why. According to Pro Football Reference, his average target depth decreased by 1.2 yards. His yards before catch per reception went from 8.1 in 2023 to 6.0 last year.

        So he was simply catching shorter passes on average last season. And doing big things with them.

        PFR also credited Nacua with a jump from 56.9% in success rate to 63.2%. That ranked sixth at the position.

        His receptions per game bumped up from 6.2 to 7.2. Only Chase and Malik Nabers beat him in 2024. Nacua’s yards per route climbed from 2.75 to 3.23, according to Pro Football Focus, leading all WRs who drew more than 3 targets for the year.

        The Rams stud also led the position in PFF receiving grade. And he dominated the position in success per route, according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. Check out the rates for the top 5 in that category:

        1. Nacua -- 23.5%
        2. Chris Godwin -- 18.2%
        3. Amon-Ra St. Brown -- 17.9%
        4. A.J. Brown -- 17.2%
        5. Drake London -- 16.5%

        The 13 WRs behind Godwin in those rankings all finished closer to his rate than Godwin did to Nacua’s. (Sheesh)

        After Nacua and Kupp, It Got Ugly Fast

        It didn’t hurt that the Rams’ receiving options beyond Nacua kinda stunk last season.

        Cooper Kupp — in diminished form — worked as the No. 2 WR. He lost five games to a Week 2 high-ankle sprain. Kupp increased his targets and receptions per game vs. 2023 but declined in basically every other category.

        No one else on the team reached 50 receptions. Here’s everyone who got to 30:

        • Nacua -- 79
        • Kupp -- 67
        • Tutu Atwell -- 42
        • Kyren Williams -- 34
        • Demarcus Robinson -- 31
        • Colby Parkinson -- 30

        Even with that forgettable cast of pass catchers, the Rams threw at a rate basically identical to 2023: 56.7% vs. 56.4%.

        The earlier season won on neutral pass rate, though. The Rams passed in 54.5% of such situations in 2023; 51.0% last year.

        Year 2 Proved Monster Rookie Showing Was No Fluke

        Nacua, of course, broke out as a season-defining fifth-round rookie breakout in 2023.

        His 105 receptions led the team by 46. He nearly doubled No. 2 Cooper Kupp in receiving yards. And the rookie led in TD catches even while scoring on just 5.7% of his receptions.

        Nacua finished fourth among WRs in total PPR points; sixth in points per game. He tied for sixth at the position in targets, ranked eighth in catches, and finished fourth in receiving yards.

        All Good if the Knee’s Good

        Nacua entered the 2024 regular season off a knee injury that cost him a lot of August. He immediately aggravated the knee and landed on IR.

        The WR made it back for limited playing time in Week 8 and didn’t crack 80% playing time until Week 16. But he produced even more efficiently than 2023 when on the field and suffered no further physical setbacks.

        There’s nothing worrisome in his longer injury history, with the biggest ding a foot fracture all the way back in 2019.

        2025 Expectations

        Positive TD Regression Could Make Him Godzilla

        Nacua has clearly established himself as a force in both real and fantasy football through just two seasons. And he just turned 24 in late May. Our historical research says he likely hasn’t even reached his scoring peak yet.

        Where could he possibly pump up that production? TDs look most obvious, as Nacua’s scored on a meager 4.9% of his receptions to date. Kupp, by comparison, scored on 8.7% of his catches over the past two seasons — even while losing five games to injury each year and watching some punk from BYU overtake him.

        Of course, Nacua should face a bigger target-share challenge this year than the version of Kupp he got the past two seasons.

        Is Davante Adams a Hurdle or Just a New Teammate?

        Davante Adams is actually about six months older than Kupp. Yet the Rams booted the latter and signed the former for $44 million over two years, with $26 million of that guaranteed. That’s how you know they believe Adams is still good.

        Adams ranked sixth among WRs in target share last year (adjusted for games missed), just narrowly trailing Nacua. That came despite a midseason trade to Garrett Wilson’s team … which also sported Adams’ longtime QB buddy, of course.

        Adams ranked second the year before and first in 2022. Those three seasons found him turning 30, 31, and 32 in December. He also ranked second in 2021 — his final Packers season — interestingly behind only Kupp.

        That Rams team also lost WR Robert Woods at midseason and suffered for a dearth of receiving options behind Kupp otherwise.

        The 2020 Rams found Woods and Kupp combining for just one missed game. They finished that season 19th (Kupp) and 22nd (Woods) among WRs in target share.

        Don't Be Surprised If Pass Rate Climbs

        The Rams might be able to fit higher target shares for this new top duo by amping up their passing volume.

        They did so in QB Matthew Stafford’s first two seasons: throwing on 60.3% of the offensive plays in 2021 and 58.9% in 2022. The latter came despite Stafford losing eight games to injury.

        Those stand as the second- and third-largest passing leans since HC Sean McVay arrived in 2017. His 2024 rate was the lowest since his 2017 debut campaign. And even last year’s slight overall increase actually marked a decline when you look at neutral situations (as we addressed earlier).

        The expensive Kupp-to-Adams swap sure seems to indicate plenty of passing in the plans for 2025.


        Davante Adams

        Headshot of Davante Adams

        Bottom Line: Adams Can Beat Aging Curve

        At 32, Adams hits an age that has historically presented cliff risk for WRs. But his 2024 play and the Rams’ 2025 investment pump optimism into his outlook. Throw in a fairly modest ADP, and Adams looks like a solid shot to take.

        2024 Summary

        Even Amid Chaos, Adams Stayed Productive

        Adams finished 12th among WRs in PPR points per game last season — 13th in half-PPR and non-PPR — despite an early-season injury and midseason trade.

        Of course, that wasn’t your average trade.

        Adams did join an offense that already sported WR Garrett Wilson. But he also rejoined QB Aaron Rodgers, his Green Bay teammate from 2014 through 2021.

        Adams fired off a WR5 finish in Week 2 with the Raiders. But he sandwiched that between WR37 and WR52 performances. Vegas swapped him to the Jets after three games lost to a hamstring injury (allegedly).

        The veteran opened his Jets stint with WR51 and WR46 finishes. But Adams landed outside the top 35 just one other time among his final nine games. He finished six weeks among the top 18, including four top-9 rankings

        Adams Jacked Up His Slot Time

        Adams likely would have led Raiders targets had he stuck in Vegas. Instead, he went to the Jets and out-targeted Wilson over their shared time. In fact, his target share from Week 7 on (after the trade) ranked fourth among all WRs. (Wilson checked in 29th.)

        Adams spent a career-high share of his pass snaps in the slot last year: 46.4%, according to Pro Football Focus. That marked a rise of nearly 30 percentage points vs. 2023 and 12.8 percentage points more than his previous high (in 2020 with the Packers).

        That especially picked up after he joined the Jets, who ran Adams from the slot 52.1% of the time. That nearly doubled his 28.4% over the three Raiders games. And perhaps it gave the Rams ideas for a Cooper Kupp replacement.

        Usage Shift Altered His Output, Though

        Adams’ aDOT dipped with the move. According to PFF, his 8.7-yard average target depth matched his career low from 2020 (that previous high season for slot usage).

        His 2.04 yards per route tied for 27th among 106 WRs who drew 40+ targets. Getting out of Vegas helped. He fell from four straight seasons of 2.45+ to just 1.97 in 2023 and then 1.66 over the first three weeks of last season.

        That 1.66 would have ranked just 49th for the season. Adams’ 2.16 with the Jets, on the other hand, would have checked in 22nd.

        Adams did tally a career-low 45.6% receiving success rate, according to Pro Football Reference.

        Targets Find Adams Wherever He Goes

        You might’ve heard that Adams has been pretty productive for a pretty long time.

        His No. 6 ranking among WRs in target share last season (adjusted for games missed) actually marked a downturn. Adams ranked first or second in that category each of the previous five seasons. And he checked in third the year before that.

        Those seven consecutive seasons of top-6 rankings spanned three teams.

        And he proved pretty good at scoring fantasy points with all those opportunities. Here are Adams’ annual ranks in PPR points per game among WRs, dating back to the first season he reached 100 targets:

        • 2024 -- 12th
        • 2023 -- 17th
        • 2022 – 6th
        • 2021 -- 2nd
        • 2020 -- 1st
        • 2019 -- 5th
        • 2018 -- 1st
        • 2017 -- 9th
        • 2016 -- 12th

        No Injury Worries Here

        Adams lost those three games to hamstring trouble last year. That marked the first time he sat out with an injury since 2020. The only other lost game in the meantime was one for a positive COVID test back in 2021.

        So there’s no reason to worry about the old man’s health.

        2025 Expectations

        Adams Isn't Just Another WR2

        Adams presents the biggest challenge that WR Puka Nacua will have seen across his first three years in the league. Nacua presents a similar challenge for Adams.

        The new old guy did join a Jets offense last year that had thrown Garrett Wilson the league’s seventh-largest target share in 2023, and Adams beat Wilson in target share over their shared time. But that wasn’t your typical arrival. Adams joined the QB he had previously spent eight seasons with in Green Bay.

        This new offense has put Nacua and Matthew Stafford together for two years, each of which included the young wideout leading the team in targets per game.

        But Adams should position as the clear No. 2 WR. We’ll see exactly where the Rams align him, whether Adams continues running more from the slot than he did earlier in his career.

        Rams Didn't Pay Him to Compete for a Role or Block for Runners

        The Rams did extend WR Tutu Atwell for a year at $10 million just ahead of free agency, a move that preceded Adams’ arrival. That move looked interesting at first, but a guy with 99 total receptions through four NFL seasons doesn’t stand much chance against a couple of target hogs.

        Adams gets another established veteran QB, and Stafford’s probably at a similar level heading into his age-37 season as the 41-year-old Rodgers.

        Stafford’s 7.6 yards per pass attempt over his four Rams seasons beats both of Rodgers’ past two healthy years. Same for his 65.7% completion rate. And his 4.6% TD rate comes close to Rodgers’ 4.8% for each of those years.

        One key question, though, will be the backfield and the run-pass split.

        L.A. Might Be Ready to Air It Out Again

        HC Sean McVay has tended to rank middle of the league or just below in pass rate. Five of his eight years have found the Rams passing on less than 57% of offensive plays. But just four of his teams have ranked higher in rushing attempts than passing attempts.

        L.A. appeared to want to throw the ball more after picking up Stafford in 2021, though. That team and the next year’s ranked second and third, respectively, among McVay’s eight turns in pass rate. And 2022 included Stafford losing half the season to injury.

        The investment in a 32-year-old Adams at least signals the Rams believe he can upgrade the passing offense vs. last year’s. If that proves true, don’t be surprised if more passing volume arrives.


        Terrance Ferguson

        Bottom Line: Bet on Ferguson's Future, Not His 2025

        Ferguson carries plenty of long-term intrigue, but he joins a crowded position in an offense with touch hogs at WR and RB. Stash him in dynasty, but don’t expect big 2025 contributions.

        2024 Summary

        Modest College Numbers, Gaudy Athletic Profile

        Ferguson progressed as a receiver across four years at Oregon. His 2024 included a career-high 49.3 receiving yards per game. Ferguson also set career highs in receptions (3.6 per game) and yards per catch (13.7).

        He checked in just fourth among Ducks, though, in receptions, receiving yards, and TD catches.

        Ferguson’s 16.3% career Dominator Rating (based on share of receiving yards and TDs) ranked 12th among 21 TEs who attended the 2025 Scouting Combine. His 2.02 yards per route ranked better at fifth.

        Ferguson flashed upside beyond his numbers with a strong workout at that Combine, though. His 9.32 relative athletic score ranked 92nd among 1,338 Combine TEs since 1987. That testing included a 4.63-second 40 time (83rd percentile) at 6’5.

        The Rams selected him 46th overall, with the 14th pick of Round 2.

        2025 Expectations

        Ferguson Enters a Crowded but Beatable TE Room

        The Rams suddenly find a crowd at tight end. Colby Parkinson led the group with 30 catches for 294 yards on 49 targets, ranking fifth on the team in all three categories.

        Tyler Higbee returned at the end of the regular season from the ACL tear he sustained in the 2023 playoffs. He remains on the roster at a nearly $9 million cap hit and should be much readier physically for this season.

        Those two will serve as Ferguson’s primary competition, and spending the fairly high pick on Ferguson indicates the Rams hope he’s better than Parkinson.

        HC Sean McVay has said he has “big plans” for the young TE, lauding his movement skills and ability to move around the formation.

        The big question will be playing time, and we shouldn’t expect the rookie to be close to startability right away in typical fantasy leagues.

         

        Where Do Rams Players Land in Our Rankings?

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        Jared and I discussed Kyren Williams (and much more) in this RB rankings video.

        Matt Schauf Author Image
        Matt Schauf, Editor
        Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.
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