Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 2: Don’t Trust What You Just Saw
Week 1 Numbers Don't Guarantee Week 2 Value
Predicting the opening slate of a new season is always a challenge. With no recent data, sticking with the players you drafted is generally the right call.
Now we have a week’s worth of games in the books, so we can see usage and trends that help us make better-informed lineup decisions.
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QB to Start
Trust the history over the opener.
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Herbert is coming off a rough opening week where he produced just 13.3 fantasy points against the Cardinals, his fifth-lowest output since last season began.
What really stung fantasy managers was that it came in a friendly projected matchup, facing a defense that gave up the ninth-most passing yards last season and didn’t make any significant additions in the offseason.
Herbert’s passing volume also came in oddly low on a rough day for the offense in general, especially considering the trailing game script. He’s only had 11 games with fewer completions among 96 career starts. And it was just the fifth time he has attempted 28 or fewer passes and thrown an INT without passing for multiple touchdowns.
Herbert’s chance to rebound comes immediately against a familiar opponent, the division-rival Raiders. The Chargers QB has performed well against them historically, producing 20.7 fantasy points per game. That mark would’ve ranked seventh among QBs last season.
Herbert has averaged 19.0 fantasy points per game (depending on your format) for his career, including nine against the Raiders.
As we head into Week 2 of Herbert’s seventh season, trust his nearly 100-game sample over an underwhelming opening week.
QB to Sit
The volume and matchup are about to change drastically.
Tyler Shough, Saints
Shough heads into Week 2 fresh off the best performance of his career. The second-year QB scored 23.2 fantasy points in an OT loss to the Lions to finish QB8 finish on the week.
Shough took over in Week 9 last season and ranked 12th among QBs in points per game the rest of the way.
His passing efficiency was middling at best, though, ranking 19th in adjusted yards per attempt and 35th in passing-TD rate.
Week 1 of this season looked similar. Shough ranked 15th in adjusted yards per attempt but climbed to 12th in TD rate. His league-leading 56 pass attempts pushed the fantasy score higher. And even within that performance, we saw a rough Shough in the first half followed by a strong second half.
The Saints QB likely won’t throw for anywhere near the volume he did last week. Combine that with his modest efficiency and still-developing game, and he’s a sit for Week 2 at Baltimore.
Running Backs to Start
This duo just needs opportunities.
Jadarian Price, Seahawks
Price finished opening night against the Patriots with more rushing attempts than any other Seahawks back.
Price produced 52 yards on 10 carries while adding 6 yards on 2 catches. That didn’t provide many fantasy points, but the promising start could earn more touches.
The rookie’s 45.5% carry share ranks 27th through Week 1, while his 2.36 yards per team rush attempt ranks 14th. The difference in ranking between his volume and output highlights high-end efficiency.
The Seahawks now visit a Cardinals D that shocked the Chargers in Week 1. But the personnel’s not much different from the unit that gave up the eighth-most rushing yards last season. And they’ll go without starting QB Sam Darnold.
That gives Seattle even more reason to potentially boost the rushing volume, which would boost Price’s upside in a matchup that should be even friendlier than last week’s.
It’s too early to call Price a must-start, but he presents upside beyond his low-RB2 placement in our Week 2 rankings.
Aaron Jones, Vikings
The Vikings get a Bears defense that just gave up 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers. Carolina had only achieved 30 points and 400 yards in a game one other time since drafting Bryce Young in 2023.
The Vikings lost Week 1 leading rusher Jordan Mason to IR with a thumb injury, clearing the way for Jones to control this week’s work
Mason accounted for 44.1% of the offense’s rush attempts against Green Bay, up slightly from his 41.2% carry share in 2025.
Jones has played just one game without Mason since the Vikings acquired him last offseason, but he scored 15.3 PPR points and finished RB16 that week.
Multiple factors have Jones set up for another fringe RB1 week. Start him.
RBs to Sit
These guys don't have the receiving or matchup juice to deliver.
J.K. Dobbins, Broncos
Dobbins has garnered nearly all of his production by way of rushing since his Ohio State days. Across his nine-year career in college and the NFL, Dobbins has never reached 5.0 receiving PPR points per game for a season.
The veteran back posted just 1.5 receiving points per game in his first Broncos season while accounting for only a 3.9% target share. Dobbins didn’t earn a single target in Week 1 of this year.
Now the run-only back faces a Jaguars defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league last season. Jacksonville continued that by yielding just 87 rushing yards to the Browns last Sunday.
Sit Dobbins this week.
Kyle Monangai, Bears
Monangai racked up 20.4 PPR points last week that included a 61-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter. It’s the second-highest scoring output of his career and the fourth time he’s finished as an RB1 for the week.
But his outlook gets far cloudier this week.
The Vikings gave up the 10th-fewest points to RBs last season and allowed the third-fewest rushing yards on opening weekend this year. Last Sunday’s opponent, the Panthers, gave up the ninth-most points to RBs last season. They allowed more rushing yards than any other defense in Week 1.
Despite the production outburst, Monangai accounted for just 25.6% of the Bears’ rushing attempts. Forty other RBs beat that mark, including teammate D’Andre Swift.
Without a high-volume workload or run-friendly defense, Monangai is an RB to sit.
WRs to Start
Here's a Week 1 star to trust, plus a Week 1 disappointment with room to rebound.
Jalen Coker, Panthers
Coker led all Week 1 WRs with 33.8 PPR points. The Panthers WR hauled in eight of his 9 targets for 138 yards and two scores, leading the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving TDs.
It was certainly a surprise to see Coker lead Tetairoa McMillan in all those categories, but it also wasn’t a total shock.
This marks the second straight game that Coker has posted at least 28 PPR points if you include the team’s playoff loss to the Rams.
The third-year WR has averaged 15.4 PPR points per game over his past seven contests. That would’ve ranked as the WR10 last season.
Coker remains behind McMillan in Panthers target projections, but he’ll face a Falcons defense this week that has allowed QB Bryce Young to average 26.6 fantasy points over their past three meetings.
The favorable matchup and a recent span of high-end production makes Coker nearly impossible to sit in Week 2.
Jordan Addison, Vikings
For the third time in his career and second time against the Packers, Addison finished a game with 0.0 PPR points.
Green Bay, which allowed the 11th-most passing yards and 20th-most passing TDs last season, have been kryptonite for Addison recently.
He’s produced a total of just 1.8 PPR points over their past three meetings, averaging an astonishingly low 0.3 receptions for 2.7 yards per game. Addison has averaged 3.4 receptions, 50.1 yards, 0.3 TDs, and 11.1 PPR points per game against all other opponents since the start of last season.
Addison draws a Week 2 matchup against the Bears, who just allowed the second-most passing yards in the league to a Bryce Young-led offense.
Carson Wentz starting in place of Kyler Murray shouldn’t hurt. Addison has averaged 12.8 PPR points across five career games with Wentz.
Addison is set up for a bounce-back this week. Start him.
WRs to Sit
We're gonna need more from these first-round picks.
Matthew Golden, Packers
Golden is coming off a career-high 15.5 PPR points against the Vikings, where he hauled in six of his team-high 12 targets for 95 yards. His 28.6% opening-week target share ranked eighth among all WRs while his 2.26 yards per team pass attempt ranked 17th.
It was a much-needed week for a second-year WR who struggled mightily as a rookie. Golden became just the fifth first-round rookie WR to produce less than 1.00 yard per team pass attempt, joining:
- Laquon Treadwell
- Mike Williams
- Jalen Reagor
- Quentin Johnston
Golden also entered the league with a suspect prospect profile. He was just the third first-round WR to never produce a collegiate season with at least 2.00 yards per team pass attempt, joining Cordarrelle Patterson and Henry Ruggs.
Golden’s impressive isn’t enough to dispel his prior record. The larger sample trumps the one-week sample and makes Golden a WR we’re sitting.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
The former fourth overall pick followed back-to-back WR39 season finishes with a WR78 performance in Week 1. Harrison caught just one of his 3 targets for 33 yards leading to only 4.3 PPR points. That’s not a promising step to open a season that needs to reveal significant improvement.
Week 2 doesn’t get any easier, bringing a Seahawks defense that gave up the fifth fewest PPR points to WRs last season. That defense is also coming off holding Drake Maye to just 168 passing yards. (He averaged 258.5 per game last season.)
Harrison’s 8.1% opening-week target share will likely be closer to his 15.9% mark from last year. But even last year’s share ranked just 52nd among WRs. A Seahawks defense that allowed the fourth-fewest pass attempts last season only exacerbates the volume issue.
A third-year breakout could still be in the cards for Harrison, but he’s a sit this week.
Tight End to Start
One side faces big potential opportunity.
Mark Andrews, Ravens
In a week where Lamar Jackson threw for over 300 yards for the first time since 2024, Andrews commanded 6 targets for 4 receptions, 49 yards, and 8.9 PPR points.
The Ravens TE drew a 24% target share after failing to reach 20% either of the previous two seasons. (That followed five straight years of target shares at 20% or higher.) Andrews’ Week 1 target share ranked third among all TEs, trailing only former teammate Isaiah Likely and Trey McBride.
A downward trend in production isn’t out of the ordinary for a 31 year old, but his opening week usage paired with 1.96 yards per team attempt points to Andrews still being capable of TE1 production.
Andrews could see his target share tick even higher in Week 2, with a hamstring injury rendering WR Zay Flowers questionable.
Plan to use Andrews against a Saints defense that allowed 369 yards and 31 points last Sunday.
Tight End to Sit
The other's bound to regress from Week 1.
Juwan Johnson, Saints
Johnson finished as the TE7 last week after a 14.4-point PPR performance. The 30-year old caught three of his 7 targets for 54 yards and a TD.
But the TE benefited from insane passing volume. QB Tyler Shough threw 56 passes, 14 more than the next-highest for the week.
Johnson’s 12.5% target share ranked 23rd among TEs and even trailed teammate TE Noah Fant. Johnson’s 17.3% target share for 2025 was a career high, but we can’t necessarily count on a repeat. That marked the first time in six seasons that he cracked 14%.
The team’s passing volume will decrease this week, which also brings a tougher matchup at Baltimore. The Ravens allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points to TEs last season.
Johnson’s too risky for most fantasy lineups, assuming you have a decent alternative. Check the TE rankings for your format to see exactly where Johnson lands.
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