Don’t Expect the Same Run-Heavy Packers Offense in 2025

  

 

Green Bay Packers 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

 

Key Additions

• WR Matthew Golden
• WR Savion Williams
• LG Aaron Banks
• WR Mecole Hardman
• RB Israel Abanikanda

 

Key Departures

• C Josh Myers
• LT Andre Dillard
• RB AJ Dillon

 

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

 

Jordan Love

Bottom Line: Healthy Love Undervalued with QB1 Potential

Love finished as a mid-range QB2 last year but showed improved efficiency and deep-ball aggression despite a lingering groin issue. While Green Bay scaled back its passing volume down the stretch, Love’s growth as a processor and playmaker suggests a high-floor QB2 with a QB1 ceiling.

2024 Summary

Inconsistent Volume Led to Mid-QB2 Results

Love finished QB18 in total fantasy points (283.8) and QB23 in points per game (18.9) over 15 starts. 

He threw for 3,389 yards (19th), 25 TDs (11th), and 11 INTs (T-12th) while adding 83 rushing yards and 1 TD on the ground. 

He posted six QB1 fantasy finishes, but also three games outside QB2 range, reflecting some volatility.

Pass Volume Dipped After Groin Injury

Love saw a notable shift in usage throughout the season.

From Weeks 1-7, he averaged 35.8 attempts and 270.2 passing yards per game. From Weeks 9-18, he averaged 26.5 attempts and 221.6 yards per game

Overall, his dropbacks per game fell from 37.2 in 2023 to 30.4 in 2024, as Green Bay leaned more run-heavy (-4.5% Pass Rate Over Expected in 2024 vs. +1.9% in 2023).

It wasn't surprising to see the Packers run a little more after paying Josh Jacobs in free agency. But the shift in run-pass split above coincided with a Week 8 groin injury for Love.

Strong Efficiency Still Despite Declining Volume

Despite the volume dip, Love’s efficiency improved:

• 76.0 PFF passing grade (13th among QBs with 300 dropbacks)
• 75.2% adjusted completion rate (20th)
• 9.2-yard average target depth (fifth)
• 16.5% deep throw rate (first)
• 3.9% big-time throw rate (18th)
• 3.0% turnover-worthy play rate (19th)

Despite the overall decline in numbers, Love actually showed slight improvement in his fantasy points per dropback: from 0.50 in 2023 to 0.51.

Accuracy, Decision-Making Improved Down the Stretch

Love has now posted back-to-back seasons with 25+ passing TDs and solid deep-ball production. 

His decision-making and accuracy improved in the second half of 2024 (PFF grade jumped from 65.5 to 80.2), pointing to growth in processing and comfort in the system.

Love dealt with an 8.3% drop rate among Packers pass catchers, one of the league's highest rates. His blocking held up well, though, ranking seventh in ESPN's pass-block win rate.

Knee Injury Struck Before Midseason Groin Issue

Love sprained his MCL in the Packers’ opening game in Brazil, costing him the next two weeks.

He played through a groin injury in Week 8 that limited him in practice for the weeks after the injury. 

Love played 15 games and avoided major injuries. He’s shown durability in his first two years as a starter, entering 2025 healthy.

2025 Expectations

Young Supporting Cast May Need Time to Develop

Green Bay’s supporting cast is young and deep.

They selected speedy WR Matthew Golden in the first round, who has drawn positive reviews in training camp.

He offers a deep threat that could force defenses to sit back, allowing Love to find easy targets underneath. 

The Packers haven't had a 1,000 yard WR since Davante Adams in 2021, so Golden is the next hope to show he can achieve that production (perhaps even as a rookie, similar to Brian Thomas Jr. last year).

Jayden Reed returns as the main slot WR. His fantasy scoring has outproduced expectation (i.e. his usage) in each of his two seasons so far. That points to an efficient performer.

Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks return after down years, while Christian Watson will be recovering from an ACL tear he sustained in January. 

Tucker Kraft took over the top TE spot from Luke Musgrave last season and showed off dynamic after-catch ability. His 8.8 yards after catch per reception led all 44 TEs who drew at least 30 targets.

Musgrave, meanwhile, remains as at least strong insurance behind Kraft -- a former second-round pick heading into just his third season.

The O-line returns four of five starters, and the Packers threw $77 million (over four years) at 49ers G Aaron Banks to upgrade the remaining spot.

LaFleur Should Move Back Toward the Pass

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and 1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 plays per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a minus-4.5% pass rate over expectation. That was the lowest pass rate for the Packers since 2003.

Those numbers dipped even further after Love's groin injury (weeks 9-18):

• a 48.1% pass rate
• 44.7% neutral pass rate
• minus-5.5% pass rate over expectation

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach was in 2022 at 56.61%, still about seven percent higher than we saw in 2024.  

Having a talented RB in Josh Jacobs does allow Lafleur to still lean on the run a bit still, so the pass rate may not match 2023. 

Josh Jacobs

Bottom Line: Steady Producer but Beware of Downside

Jacobs bounced back in a big way in 2024 after joining the Packers, finishing as a top-6 fantasy RB thanks to elite red-zone usage, improved efficiency, and steady passing-game involvement. He enters 2025 as a RB1, but also slightly overvalued in an offense we expect to run less. 

2024 Summary

Jacobs Delivered Top-10 RB Production

Jacobs played all 17 games and totaled 1,329 scrimmage yards (6th) and 15 rushing TDs (4th). 

He added 36 receptions for 342 yards (15th among RBs) on 43 targets. 

His 293.1 total fantasy points ranked 6th, and he averaged 17.2 points per game (RB8). 

He posted eight RB1 finishes and only one game outside the RB2 tier, offering elite weekly consistency.

He Wrested Control of Offense in First Season

Jacobs served as Green Bay’s featured back. That included handling 70% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line and a league-high 23 goal-line carries. 

He led all RBs with 13.8 expected rushing TDs and ranked fourth in red-zone carries (59).

His role also included steady receiving work, though low passing volume for the team limited his opportunities. Jacobs' 43 targets tied for 26th among RBs.

The Packers’ 51.9% run rate -- third-highest in the league -- put Jacobs at the center of the offense.

Short Yards with Big-Play Bursts Accented Jacobs’ Season

Jacobs’ 2024 efficiency metrics marked a consistent season:

• 90.4 PFF rushing grade (fifth among RBs with 75+ carries)
• 3.40 yards after contact per attempt (10th)
• 89.7 PFF Elusive Rating (ninth)
• 0.73 rush yards over expected per attempt (11th)
• 21.9% Breakaway Run Rate (31st)

In the passing game, he ranked 11th in yards per route run (1.39), showing elite hands and route reliability. Though not a major breakaway threat (31st in breakaway run rate), his down-to-down efficiency was among the best in the league.

Green Bay ran a run-heavy scheme behind a decent offensive line (23rd in run blocking). 

The offense skewed even more run-heavy late in the year, which played to Jacobs’ strengths and allowed him to rack up scoring chances.

Is He Durable Now?

Jacobs played all 17 games in 2024 and showed no signs of decline.

He suffered a slight lower back injury in Week 2, but missed no time.

Durability has occasionally been a concern in past seasons. Jacobs missed four games in 2023 with a quad injury and four games in 2021 with ankle and toe injuries.

Jacobs has never strung together two straight seasons with no games missed due to injury. After a fully healthy season with higher volume, Jacobs may be hard pressed to repeat that this season. 

2025 Expectations

Jacobs Set to Dominate Carries Again

Jacobs will return as Green Bay’s unquestioned workhorse, especially in short yardage and early downs. He’s unlikely to face significant competition for carries, and his red-zone usage alone secures a high floor. 

Second-year RB MarShawn Lloyd returns from his hamstring and ankle injuries as the primary backup.

Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks, who both got a bit of work last season behind Jacobs, are also back.

Packers’ Offense Adds Weapons

QB Jordan Love is locked in as the franchise QB and won’t have a nagging groin injury hindering him. That could result in a slightly higher pass rate in 2025.

The Packers selected WR Matthew Golden in the first round, and he offers a deep threat that could force defenses to sit back in coverage, benefitting the run game.

WRs Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks fill out the depth chart.

TE Tucker Kraft emerged as a reliable receiving target last year and also performs as an adequate run blocker for Jacobs, ranking 27th in PFF Run Blocking Grade among TEs with 200+ run blocks.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen in OTs Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom as well as interior OL Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan. They also added Aaron Banks from the 49ers.

Even with More Passing, Run Should Stay Efficient

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and +1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 players per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a minus-4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and minus-5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach came in 2022. That 56.61%, however, still beat last year's rate by nearly 8 percentage points.

Having a talented RB in Josh Jacobs does allow Lafleur to still lean on the run a bit still, so the pass rate may not match 2023. 

MarShawn Lloyd

Bottom Line: Top-24 Upside If Jacobs Goes Down

Lloyd’s rookie season was essentially a redshirt year, with just one game played and minimal usage. With Josh Jacobs never having two fully healthy seasons in a row, Lloyd offers value as a handcuff whose physical traits make him a major sleeper if Jacobs goes down.

2024 Summary

Injuries Wrecked Lloyd's Rookie Season

Lloyd appeared in only one game, logging 6 carries for 15 yards and catching 1 pass for 3 yards, totaling 2.8 PPR points. 

He didn’t factor into Green Bay’s backfield due to injury. First came a preseason hamstring injury that kept him out through Week 1.

His Week 2 return met with an ankle sprain that landed the rookie on IR. And as Lloyd neared return in mid-November, he developed appendicitis and needed emergency treatment.

He didn't return to the field before the season ended.

Run-Heavy Scheme Could Have Benefited Him

Green Bay ran a run-heavy scheme (48.8% pass rate, -4.5% pass rate over expected) behind a decent offensive line (23rd in run blocking). 

The run-heavy aspect of the offense could benefit a healthy Lloyd, even with Jacobs playing.

2025 Expectations

Lloyd Can Still Earn No. 2 Job

Lloyd will compete for the No. 2 RB role behind Josh Jacobs, with a shot to carve out change-of-pace or third-down snaps. If Jacobs misses time, Lloyd could step into a valuable early-down role.

Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks also return, though. Wilson, in particular, impressed by averaging 4.9 yards per rush across 103 carries as the No. 2 back last season.

History Plus Golden Pick Suggest More Passing 

Jordan Love is locked in as the franchise QB and won’t have a nagging groin injury hindering him. That could result in a slightly higher pass rate in 2025.

The Packers selected WR Matthew Golden in the first round, the first time they've addressed the position that early since Javon Walker in 2003.

Golden supplies at least a speed merchant who can work downfield and run after the catch. If he -- or any other Packers WR -- can reach 1,000 yards, it'd be the team's first such player since Davante Adams in 2021.

WRs Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks fill out the depth chart.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen. Aaron Banks claims the fifth spot after arriving in free agency on a four-year, $77 million deal.

Scheme Leaves Room for Change-of-Pace RB

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and 1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 players per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a minus-4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and minus-5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach was in 2022 at 56.61%, still about seven percent higher than we saw in 2024.  

Jayden Reed

Bottom Line: Reed Needs More Touches to Pay Off

Reed remained one of the NFL’s most efficient slot weapons in 2024, combining explosive after-catch production with occasional spike weeks. However, his inconsistent usage, target share dip, and high drop rate created inconsistency week to week. He remains a WR3/4 who could benefit from an increased pass rate this season.

2024 Summary

Reed Posted Monster Games … And Poor Ones

Reed posted 199 fantasy points (WR29) and 11.7 PPR points per game (WR43) over 17 games.

He turned 75 targets into 44 catches for 857 yards (32nd) and 6 receiving TDs, while adding 163 rushing yards and a TD on 20 carries. 

He delivered two fantasy weeks as a top-two fantasy WR, but didn’t finish as a WR2 or better in any other game.

Reed’s Target Share Suffered

Reed operated almost exclusively from the slot (77% slot rate, 6th-highest in NFL) and saw a 15.7% target share, down from 17.0% in his rookie season. 

While his route rate increased (69%), his targets per route run dipped from 22.9% to 19.2%, suggesting fewer designed looks. 

He was often used on jet motion, screens, and intermediate crossers to maximize his yards-after-catch ability.

His rushing role (20 carries) continued to be a creative extension of the run game and adds a bit to his fantasy value.

YAC Got Stronger, but Too Many Drops

Reed’s underlying metrics remained strong when looking at his 2.20 yards per route run (17th among WRs with 50+ targets) and 7.4 yards after catch per reception (4th).

But, other metrics show the inconsistency of Reed’s season. His 8.2-yard average target depth ranked 66th, while his 69.0 PFF receiving grade ranked 52nd.

His 15.9% drop rate (3rd highest) is also a red flag and likely impacted trust on key downs. He continued to outperform his expected TD rate (11.8% actual vs. 9.1% expected), showing he’s a natural playmaker with scoring upside.

Green Bay’s Run-Heavy Shift Limited Reed’s Chances

Green Bay transitioned from a balanced offense in 2023 to a run-heavy unit in 2024 (minus-4.5% pass rate over expected, 48.8% pass rate). 

That shift, especially post-Week 8, reduced target volume across the board. 

Reed still found splash plays within a condensed scheme, but weekly opportunities were limited by the system’s structure and spreading the ball among several young receivers.

Scoring Efficiency Remained Strong

Reed’s TD efficiency has now exceeded expectations in back-to-back seasons, reinforcing his big-play upside. 

However, both target share (17.0% to 15.7%) and targets per route run (22.9% to 19.2%) declined from 2023 to 2024.

Healthy for the Fantasy Season

Reed stayed healthy for all 17 games in 2024, a positive sign after battling minor injuries in 2022 and 2023.

He did suffer a shoulder injury in the Packers’ lone playoff game last year.

2025 Expectations

Same Role But More Competition?

Reed returns as the Packers’ primary slot receiver but targets will likely continue to be spread around.

The Packers added first-round WR Matthew Golden while retaining veterans Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.

Christian Watson will be recovering from an ACL tear suffered in January.

The team also brought in free agent Mecole Hardman and drafted Savion Williams in the third round. 

TE Tucker Kraft emerged as a top-12 fantasy TE last season, and Luke Musgrave will also be returning to some usage as a second-round pick entering his third season.

Reed should still have a solid role, but there will be target competition.

Rest of the Offense Largely Unchanged

Jordan Love is locked in as the franchise QB and won’t have a nagging groin injury hindering him this season. That could result in a slightly higher pass rate in 2025.

RB Josh Jacobs remains the focal point of the offense and also adds a pass-catching threat.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen in OTs Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom as well as interior OL Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan. They also added Aaron Banks from the 49ers.

Expect Some Pass Rate Rebound in Fluid Scheme

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and +1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 plays per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a -4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and -5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach was in 2022 at 56.61%, still about seven percent higher than we saw in 2024.  

Having a talented RB in Josh Jacobs does allow Lafleur to still lean on the run a bit still, so the pass rate may not match 2023. 

If the pass rate does spike back closer toward previous rates, Reed should benefit.

Romeo Doubs

Bottom Line: Unexciting Depth Piece Due to High Floor

Doubs continued to provide reliable, if unspectacular, production in 2024 as a boundary possession receiver. While he saw a bump in target share, his efficiency remained stagnant, making him an unexciting WR5 heading into 2025.

2024 Summary

Doubs Delivered Uninspiring Production

Doubs totaled 130.1 fantasy points (WR56) and averaged 10.0 PPR points per game (WR55) over 13 games. 

He caught 46 passes for 601 yards (54th) and 4 TDs, drawing 72 targets (T-56th). 

He had three top-24 fantasy weeks but also finished as a WR4 or worse in eight games, limiting his usability in most formats.

Outside Starter but Secondary Target

Doubs remained exclusively as an outside receiver (86.5% wide). His target share increased a bit vs. 2023 -- from 17.1% to 19.7% -- but lower team passing volume slightly decreased his targets per game (5.6 to 5.5).

Doubs also bumped his yards per catch (13.1) and catch rate (63.9%) up to career-high marks.

Doubs Showed Separation but Most Metrics Lagged

 Doubs’ efficiency remained mediocre:

• 1.67 yards per route (43rd among WRs with 50+ targets)
• 71.4 PFF receiving grade (49th)
• 3.1 yards after catch per reception (64th)
• 9.8% drop rate (17th-highest) 

He did create separation well (4.0-yard average, T-fourth among WRs) and posted 1.0 yards after catch over expectation.

Run-Heavy Shift Lowered Doubs' Fantasy Ceiling

Green Bay transitioned from a balanced offense in 2023 to a run-heavy unit in 2024 (minus-4.5% pass rate over expected, 48.8% pass rate). 

That shift, especially post-Week 8, reduced target volume across the board. 

The reduced volume hurt all Packers receivers, and Doubs’ low-aDOT role in a crowded target tree made it difficult to generate consistent value.

Doubs has now delivered back-to-back seasons with similar usage and efficiency:

His target share rose slightly (16.5% to 18.9%) while his yards per route run remained flat (1.64 down to 1.62). His TDs dropped as well (eight in 2023 to four in 2024).

His profile remains that of a dependable possession WR.

Multiple Concussions Raise Concerns

Doubs missed four games in 2024 after suffering a concussion in Week 12. He suffered another concussion in the Packers’ playoff game, the third of his career (including one from college).

That's worrisome, especially given Doubs' abnormally long absence after that Week 12 head injury.

2025 Expectations

Role Appears Locked In but Target Competition Increased

Doubs returns as an outside WR for the Packers, but he will face increased competition.

The Packers added first-round rookie WR Matthew Golden, increasing target competition. They also retained veterans Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks

Christian Watson will be recovering from an ACL tear suffered in January.

The team also brought in free agent Mecole Hardman and drafted Savion Williams in the third round. 

TE Tucker Kraft emerged  as a top-12 fantasy TE last season, and Luke Musgrave will also be returning to some usage as a second-round pick entering his third season.

Rest of the Offense Looks Similar, and Strong

Jordan Love is locked in as the franchise QB and won’t have a nagging groin injury hindering him. That could result in a slightly higher pass rate in 2025.

RB Josh Jacobs remains the focal point of the offense and also adds a pass-catching threat.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen in OTs Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom as well as interior OL Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan. They also added Aaron Banks from the 49ers.

Doubs Could Regain Value with More Passing

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and +1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 players per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a -4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and -5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach was in 2022 at 56.61%, still about seven percent higher than we saw in 2024.  

Having a talented RB in Josh Jacobs does allow Lafleur to still lean on the run a bit still, so the pass rate may not match 2023. 

Matthew Golden

Bottom Line: Crowded Situation Challenges Upside

Golden enters the NFL as an explosive route runner with deep-threat ability and red-zone production. He joins a crowded Packers WR room, though, which could limit his target volume. Consider Golden a WR5 with spike-week potential at draft time.

2024 Summary

Golden Flashed Explosive Plays at Texas

Golden posted a career-best season in his lone year at Texas, catching 58 passes for 987 yards (17.0 YPR) and 9 TDs on 83 targets across 16 games. 

He posted 2.10 yards per route and accounted for 26.5% of the team’s receiving TDs, emerging as a big-play weapon and red-zone asset in a competitive Longhorns offense.

He broke out in the final four games of the season with 19 catches for 411 yards and a TD.

He's Versatile and Gets Downfield in a Hurry

At 5'11, 191 pounds, Golden played a versatile role at Texas, operating both inside and out. 

His 13.5-yard average depth of target and 16.1% target share reflect usage as a field stretcher and perimeter threat. 

He excelled in both the intermediate and deep levels and has shown the ability to separate against man coverage and win vertically.

Packers Drafted His Big-Play Potential

Golden’s 2024 efficiency metrics stood out:

• 2.10 yards per route
• 2.2 yards per team pass attempt
• 75.6 PFF receiving grade
• 26.8% Dominator Rating 

He consistently delivered on limited volume, showing both splash-play ability and down-to-down reliability. 

Golden Never Led His Team in Catches

Golden produced at every stop from a 7-TD freshman season at Houston to his explosive year at Texas in 2024. 

His Dominator Rating and yards per team pass attempt both increased year over year, reflecting steady development. 

The downside is that he never led his team in receptions at any point in his college career.

Golden played in all 16 games in 2024 and enters the NFL healthy. 

He missed three games in 2023 due to turf toe and two games in 2022 due to a rib injury.

2025 Expectations

Watson Injury Boosts Opportunity

Golden joins a deep Packers WR group featuring Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks. 

He’ll likely start the season behind those veterans but could push for rotational snaps on the outside and as a situational deep threat. 

It’s possible Golden takes Christian Watson’s role immediately as Watson recovers from a January ACL tear.

The Packers haven't had a 1,000 yard WR since Davante Adams in 2021, so Golden is the next hope to show he can achieve that production (perhaps even as a rookie, similar to Brian Thomas Jr. last year).

The team also brought in free agent Mecole Hardman and drafted Savion Williams in the third round. 

TE Tucker Kraft emerged last season and Luke Musgrave will also be returning to some usage.

Golden’s early role may be limited, but injuries or strong camp performance could vault him into a big role to start the season.

Offensive Core Stays Consistent

Jordan Love is locked in as the franchise QB and won’t have a nagging groin injury hindering him. That could result in a slightly higher pass rate in 2025.

RB Josh Jacobs remains the focal point of the offense and also adds a pass-catching threat.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen in OTs Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom as well as interior OL Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan. They also added Aaron Banks from the 49ers.

Pass-Rate Rebound Would Boost the Outlook

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and +1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 players per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a -4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and -5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach was in 2022 at 56.61%, still about seven percent higher than we saw in 2024.  

Having a talented RB in Josh Jacobs does allow Lafleur to still lean on the run a bit still, so the pass rate may not match 2023. 

If the pass rate does climb back toward previous rates, Golden could provide spike weeks through big plays.

Tucker Kraft

Bottom Line: High-Upside TE2 with Elite Efficiency

Kraft broke out in 2024 with elite after-catch efficiency and red-zone production, finishing as a top-10 fantasy TE. While the Packers' run-heavy offense capped his volume, his explosive profile and increasing role position him as a high-upside TE2 for 2025.

2024 Summary

Kraft Scores on Efficiency Rather Than Volume

Kraft ended 2024 as the TE10 in total fantasy points (163.3) and TE15 in points per game (9.6) across 17 games. 

He posted 50 receptions (20th) for 707 yards (seventh) and 7 TDs (T-fourth) on 70 targets (18th). 

He recorded five top-12 finishes among 12 total top-24 weeks. That included two weeks as the No. 1 TE overall.

Steady Short-Area Role With Occasional Slot Usage

Kraft played a versatile role, logging 54.3% inline snaps and 31.9% in the slot. 

His 13.6% target share (20th among TEs) reflected steady involvement, though his 4.9-yard average target depth showed he operated primarily in the short area of the field. 

He wasn’t a frequent first read (13% first-read target rate) but was highly efficient when targeted.

Elite YAC and Separation Metrics Made the Most of Limited Opportunities

Kraft was one of the NFL’s most efficient TEs, especially after the catch:

• 9.7 yards after catch per reception (first among TEs with 25+ targets)
• 3.1 yards after catch over expectation (first)
• 4.4-yard average separation (first)
• 1.62 yards per route (10th among TEs)
• 76.9% catch rate and 4.2% drop rate (19th)

He also ranked 14th in PFF receiving grade (70.6), showcasing reliable hands and open-field agility uncommon for the position.

Efficiency Stood Out in a Run-Heavy Offense

Green Bay transitioned from a balanced offense in 2023 to a run-heavy unit in 2024 (minus-4.5% pass rate over expected, 48.8% pass rate). 

That shift -- especially post-Week 8 -- reduced target volume across the board. 

Despite limited team pass volume, Kraft stood out due to his YAC ability and knack for finding space against zone coverage, thriving in a scheme that frequently used misdirection and motion.

Durability Held Up

Kraft has not missed an NFL game due to an injury.

This past season, he played through a minor shoulder injury suffered in Week 3.

2025 Expectations

Kraft's Role Clear to Start 2025; Target Outlook Not so Much

Kraft enters 2025 as the Packers’ lead TE. Green Bay drafted Luke Musgrave was a round ahead in 2023, but Musgrave has seen injuries limit him to just 18 games through two seasons.

The Packers added first round WR Matthew Golden while retaining veterans Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.

QB Jordan Love should be in better shape after playing through a Week 8 groin injury last year (and losing two early games to a Week 1 knee sprain).

RB Josh Jacobs leads the backfield again. Green Bay hopes to get a healthier MarShawn Lloyd to compete with Emanuel Wilson for the No. 2 job.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen in OTs Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom as well as interior OL Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan. They also added Aaron Banks from the 49ers on a four-year, $77 million deal.

Here's Why You Might See More Passing

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024. 

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and +1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 players per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a -4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and -5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love given Lafleur's history. His previous lowest pass rate as Packers' head coach was in 2022 at 56.61%, still about seven percent higher than we saw in 2024.  

Having a talented RB in Josh Jacobs does allow Lafleur to still lean on the run a bit still, so the pass rate may not match 2023. 

If the pass rate does rebound toward previos rates, Kraft could earn even more targets this season.

How Do Packers Fit in the Rankings?

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The video below finds Jared and Matt discussing Josh Jacobs' red flags...