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Does Offensive Line Performance Impact Fantasy Football Production?

Should Fantasy Footballers Care About Offensive Lines?

The answer is: “It depends.”

It depends on the position. And it depends on the player archetype.

I’ll explain below.

But first, a quick look at the process I used to evaluate how much offensive line play impacts fantasy production.

I took total half-PPR fantasy points scored by each team at each position over each of the last four seasons. Then I compared those totals to these offensive-line metrics to look for correlation:

Pass-Blocking Metrics

• Adjusted Sack Rate
• Pro Football Focus Pass Block Grade
• ESPN Pass Block Win Rate

Run-Blocking Metrics

• Adjusted Line Yards
• Pro Football Focus Run Block Grade
• ESPN Run Block Win Rate

The table below shows the r-squared value for each combination of half-PPR points and offensive line metric. The higher the number, the more useful that metric is in helping us project fantasy football production.

So, offensive line play matters more for some positions than others.

Let’s go position by position and look at the results of this study – and what they mean for your 2024 fantasy football season.

Impact of Offensive Line Play on QB Fantasy Production

You’d think a QB’s fantasy production is closely tied to the quality of his offensive line. But you’d be (mostly) wrong.

As you’d expect, adjusted sack rate is negatively correlated to QB fantasy production. (As adjusted sack rate goes up, QB fantasy production goes down.)

But the relationship isn’t very strong. That R-squared value tells us that just 13.9% of QB fantasy production can be explained by adjusted sack rate.

The relationship between pass block grade and QB fantasy production is a bit stronger (0.15) but still not very predictive.

So while offensive line play is a factor in QB fantasy production, it’s minor.

What’s It Mean For 2024?

Use offensive line play as a tiebreaker between two closely ranked QBs. But don’t knock QBs who play behind poor offensive lines too far down your fantasy football rankings.

That means guys like Jayden Daniels and Geno Smith, who project to play behind leaky offensive lines, could actually be values if they slip too far in drafts.

Impact of Offensive Line Play on RB Fantasy Production

Offensive line play matters much more for RBs than any other position.

Although there’s notably very little correlation between ESPN’s run block win rate and RB production, adjusted line yards explain 28.9% of RB half-PPR production.

There's also a relatively strong correlation between run block grade and RB fantasy production.

Offensive line play should definitely be factored in when evaluating RBs in fantasy football.

But it matters more for some RBs than others …

Big Impact on RB Rushing Production

Not surprisingly, offensive line play has a significant impact on RB rushing production.

That 0.314 correlation between adjusted line yards and RB rushing production is the strongest between any pair of stats I looked at in this study.

Doesn’t Matter for RB Receiving Production

The numbers show that O-line play has basically no impact on RB receiving production. 

In fact, there's an ever-so-slight negative correlation between ESPN pass block win rate and RB half-PPR receiving points.

In other words, as pass block win rate worsens, RB receiving production slightly increases.

Why? My guess is that, while poor pass blocking hurts overall passing production, it forces QBs to throw more quick-hitting passes to RBs.

What’s It Mean For 2024?

Offensive line play should be a significant factor in our RB evaluations in redraft leagues. But how big a factor depends on the RB archetype.

RBs that score the majority of their fantasy points via rushing are most impacted by their offensive lines.

That's good news for guys like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Isiah Pacheco who will see big rushing volume and play behind strong run-blocking offensive lines. 

On the flip side, offensive line play is a potential concern for Brian Robinson, Devin Singletary, and Ken Walker. Those guys project to score the majority of their fantasy points on the ground but play behind shaky offensive lines.

Bad O-line play is less of a concern for Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, and Jaylen Warren because of their respective roles in their teams' passing games.

Impact of Offensive Line Play on WR Fantasy Production

There’s a strong correlation between Adjusted Sack Rate and WR half-PPR production …

… but very little signal from PFF pass block grade or pass block win rate.

It seems like the quality of pass protection matters less for WR production than having the QB simply avoid sacks (fewer sacks = more pass attempts = more targets).

What’s It Mean For 2024?

We want WRs from teams who project for the lowest adjusted sack rates. The top 5 last year:

1. Buffalo Bills (4.5%)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (4.7%)
3. Miami Dolphins (5.3%)
4. Detroit Lions (5.6%)
5. Green Bay Packers (5.7%)

Sack rate tends to be a QB stat as much as an offensive line stat. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa have been among the league's best at avoiding sacks for multiple seasons -- and that skill should again help their WRs this year.

Jared Goff and Jordan Love again project to play behind strong O-lines this year.

Poor offensive lines in New Orleans and Washington are concerns for Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson.

The Giants ranked dead last in adjusted sack rate last year and still look shaky on the O-line heading into 2024. That -- plus QB Daniel Jones' propensity to take sacks -- figures to be an issue for Malik Nabers.

Impact of Offensive Line Play on TE Fantasy Production

There’s not a strong relationship between offensive line performance and TE fantasy production. 

Interestingly, pass block win rate is the most correlated to TE half-PPR points among our three metrics – while being least correlated at WR. But that 0.105 R-squared is not particularly significant.

What’s It Mean For 2024?

Offensive line performance should not be a significant factor in the TE Rankings.

Don't Wanna Worry About Offensive Line Performance During Your Draft?

Yeah, we get it.

That's why we do it for you. Offensive line play is factored into our most accurate player rankings.

And you can turn those rankings into a customized fantasy football cheat sheet with the Draft War Room, the most powerful drafting tool in fantasy football.

Create your Draft War Room now!

Learn More About the Draft War Room

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.