Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 6

 

Welcome to Week 6’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The data below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 6 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 6!

 

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Cowboys (52.5)
2. Commanders at Ravens (51.5)
3. 49ers at Seahawks (49.0)
4. Cardinals at Packers (47.5)
t-5. Bengals at Giants (46.0)
t-5. Falcons at Panthers (46.0)

     

Lowest Game Totals

11. Bills at Jets (41.0)
12. Texans at Patriots (38.0)
13. Steelers at Raiders (36.5)
14. Chargers at Broncos (35.5)

   

Highest Implied Points

1. Ravens (29.0)
2. Lions (27.75)
3. Packers (26.5)
4. Falcons (26.25)
5. 49ers (26.0)
6. Eagles (25.25)

   

Lowest Implied Points

24. Chargers (19.25)
t-25. Browns (16.75)
t-25. Raiders (16.75)
27. Broncos (16.25)
28. Patriots (15.75)  

  

Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected

Here's where every team stands in plays per game, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and Pass Rate Over Expected through 5 weeks:

 

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Eagles (65.8)
2. Lions (65.4)
3. Ravens (65.2)
4. Texans (65.1)
5. 49ers (64.6)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Saints (59.8)
25. Broncos (59.5)
26. Raiders (59.3)
27. Chargers (59.0)
28. Patriots (58.3)

     

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Jaguars vs. Bears (26.6 seconds)
2. Falcons at Panthers (26.9 seconds)
3. Colts at Titans (27.2 seconds)
4. Cardinals at Packers (27.3 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

11. Chargers at Broncos (28.85 seconds)
12. Bengals at Giants (29.25 seconds)
13. Steelers at Raiders (29.4 seconds)
14. Buccaneers at Saints (30.3 seconds)

    

Weather Concerns

Cardinals at Packers

Chance of rain, particularly early in the game. But wind won't be a problem. No changes to our projections in this game.

  

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Ravens vs. Commanders (+78.0%)
2. Falcons at Panthers (+59.5%)
3. Packers vs. Cardinals (58.9%)
4. Bengals at Giants (+46.0%)
5. Bears vs. Jaguars (+43.9%)

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

24. Jaguars vs. Bears (-9.4%)
25. Panthers vs. Falcons (-9.7%)
26. Broncos vs. Chargers (-27.1%)
27. Browns at Eagles (-27.8%)
28. Patriots vs. Texans (-33.4%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Caleb Williams vs. Jaguars (+71%)
2. Kirk Cousins at Panthers (+50%)
3. Brock Purdy at Seahawks (+46%)
4. Daniel Jones vs. Bengals (+39%)
5. Spencer Rattler vs. Buccaneers (+31%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Bo Nix vs. Chargers (-30%)
25. Baker Mayfield at Saints (-31%)
26. Josh Allen at Jets (-33%)
27. Justin Herbert at Broncos (-41%)
28. Trevor Lawrence at Bears (-48%)

   

Sneaky Starters

Caleb Williams, Bears

Williams has steadily improved over the first five games of his rookie season. Check out his Pro Football Focus passing grades by week:

In fantasy football, Williams has finished as a top-10 QB in two of his last three games.

Next up is a Jaguars defense that's getting obliterated by the pass. Jacksonville has allowed the second most passing yards and the third most TDs through five weeks. They rank dead last in both total fantasy points allowed to QBs and adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Chicago's 23.25-point implied total is ninth highest on the week.

Kirk Cousins, Falcons

Ok, there's nothing "sneaky" about a guy who threw for 509 yards last time out. But Cousins has a good chance to stay hot this weekend.

He gets a Panthers defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Carolina has allowed multiple passing TDs in four of five games this season. Atlanta is rocking a 26.5-point implied total for this one -- tied for third highest on the week.

The biggest risk to Cousins is that the Falcons do most of their damage on the ground against an equally bad Panthers run defense. But Atlanta has leaned into the pass lately, registering +8% and +3% Pass Rate Over Expected marks the last two weeks.

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Lions at Cowboys (+30.0%)
2. Ravens vs. Commanders (+18.7%)
3. Eagles vs. Browns (+12.7%)
4. Jaguars vs. Browns (+7.8%)
5. Seahawks vs. 49ers (+6.5%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

24. Bears vs. Jaguars (-26.0%)
25. Chargers at Broncos (-26.8%)
26. Patriots vs. Texans (-29.1%)
27. Jets vs. Bills (-40.0%)
28. Raiders vs. Steelers (-45.7%)

 

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jets vs. Bills (+66%)
2. Falcons at Panthers (+55%)
3. Bears vs. Jaguars (+37%)
4. Titans vs. Colts (+31%)
5. Eagles vs. Browns (+29%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Saints vs. Buccaneers (-15%)
25. Commanders at Ravens (-16%)
26. Chargers at Broncos (-17%)
27. Panthers vs. Falcons (-26%)
28. Cowboys vs. Lions (-31%)

   

Sneaky Starter

Austin Ekeler, Commanders

Brian Robinson's absence will leave Washington's backfield to Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. I'm expecting them to share early-down work -- but for Ekeler to dominate passing-game snaps. And that's important in Sunday's matchup vs. the Ravens. 

The Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs. And the Ravens rank first in Pass Rate Over Expected Against. In other words, teams are opting to go pass-heavy against them.

And that's smart considering Baltimore has limited opposing RBs to just 2.9 yards per carry so far this season.

But they Ravens have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to RBs.

Look for Ekeler to have a productive outing in the passing game. He's a fine RB3 or flex play, particularly in PPR.

   

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bears vs. Jaguars (+58%)
2. Saints vs. Buccaneers (+30%)
3. Browns at Eagles (+30%)
4. Commanders at Ravens (+30%)
5. Panthers vs. Falcons (+29%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Jets vs. Bills (-14%)
25. Broncos vs. Chargers (-32%)
26. Jaguars at Bears (-32%)
27. Colts at Titans (-43%)
28. Chargers at Broncos (-46%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Andrei Iosivas vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Cordale Flott, and Nick McCloud

Giants WRs Darius Slayton, and Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Bengals CBs Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner, and Jalen Davis

Falcons WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Troy Hill

Bears WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen vs. Jaguars CBs Montaric Brown, Ronald Darby, and Darnell Savage

Cardinals WRs Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch vs. Packers CBs Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, and Keisean Nixon

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed vs. Cardinals CBs Starling Thomas, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Kei’Trel Clark

Ravens WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Noah Igbinoghene, and Mike Sainristil

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Bills CBs Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford

Jaguars WRs Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, and Christian Kirk vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Kyler Gordon

Colts WRs Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs vs. Titans CBs L’Jarius Sneed, Jarvis Brownlee, and Roger McCreary

Bills WRs Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Chargers WRs Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and Ladd McConkey vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja’Quan McMillian

       

Sneaky Starter

Rome Odunze, Bears

Odunze has drawn just nine targets over the last two games with WR Keenan Allen back. But the rookie's playing time has remained fine: An 88% route rate in Week 4 and 97% in Week 5.

Odunze gets a perfect matchup on Sunday against a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. The Jaguars have particularly struggled against outside receivers (32nd in adjusted points allowed) and deep balls (32nd in DVOA against deep passes). 

Odunze has run 67% of his routes on the outside this season and owns a 15.3-yard average depth of target.

Tre Tucker, Raiders

Tucker is averaging 6.7 targets and 4.7 catches over his last three games. He could top both marks this weekend with WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers out.

The matchup isn't ideal vs. the Steelers, but I'm not expecting Tucker to draw shadow coverage from CB Joey Porter Jr. Pittsburgh ranks a middling 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Plus, Tucker's 4.4 speed means he can make his fantasy day with just one big play.

   

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Raiders vs. Steelers (+136%)
2. Titans vs. Colts (+72%)
3. 49ers at Seahawks (+64%)
4. Cardinals at Packers (+41%)
5. Commanders at Ravens (+36%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Ravens vs. Commanders (-35%)
25. Patriots vs. Texans (-40%)
26. Browns at Eagles (-40%)
27. Bills at Jets (-51%)
28. Colts at Titans (-68%)

   

Sneaky Starter

Tyler Conklin, Jets

Conklin ranks fourth among TEs with 23 targets over the last three weeks. He's ninth in expected PPR points per game over that span.

Conklin should be busy again on Monday night against a Bills defense that's softer in the middle of the field than outside. Buffalo ranks sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs but just 14th against TEs. Bills opponents have targeted a TE on 23% of passes -- well above the league average.

Conklin will probably score a TD at some point, too. He's up to 78 catches without a score over the last two seasons.

   

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Eagles vs. Browns (+529%)
2. Colts at Titans (+100%)
3. Steelers at Raiders (+96%)
4. Texans at Patriots (+82%)
5. Jaguars vs. Bears (+69%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Lions at Cowboys (-36%)
25. Raiders vs. Steelers (-38%)
26. Titans vs. Colts (-48%)
27. Ravens vs. Commanders (-68%)
28. Commanders at Ravens (-81%)

    

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 6 Streaming DSTs.

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chris Boswell at Raiders (+87%)
2. Eddy Pineiro vs. Falcons (+61%)
3. Matt Gay at Titans (+43%)
4. Cairo Santos vs. Jaguars (+32%)
5. Joey Slye vs. Texans (+32%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Justin Tucker vs. Commanders (-24%)
25. Brayden Narveson vs. Cardinals (-26%)
26. Cameron Dicker at Broncos (-29%)
27. Matt Prater at Packers (-32%)
28. Wil Lutz vs. Chargers (-52%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Cairo Santos, Bears

Santos has connected on eight of nine FGs this season, with four of those makes coming from 50+ yards.

His Bears have a solid 23.25-point implied total this week against a Jaguars team that ranks 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers.