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Week 6 Matchups That Matter: Breakout Spot For Tetairoa McMillan?

Welcome to Week 6’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 6 Rankings and your Team Intel page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 6!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Chiefs (52.5)
2. Bills at Falcons (50.0)
3. Bears at Commanders (49.5)
t-4. Seahawks at Jaguars (47.5)
t-4. Cowboys at Panthers (47.5)
t-6. 49ers at Buccaneers (46.5)
t-6. Cardinals at Colts (46.5)

Lowest Game Totals

12. Broncos vs. Jets (43.5)
13. Titans at Raiders (41.5)
14. Eagles at Giants (40.5)
15. Browns at Steelers (38.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Packers (29.5)
2. Colts (28.0)
3. Chiefs (27.5)
4. Bills (27.25)
5. Commanders (27.0)

Fewest Projected Points

t-25. Cardinals (18.5)
t-25. Titans (18.5)
27. Jets (18.25)
28. Giants (16.5)
29. Browns (16.0)
30. Bengals (15.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Packers (63.8)
2. Saints (63.5)
3. Cowboys (63.4)
4. Broncos (63.3)
5. Rams (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

26. Jets (60.8)
27. Titans (60.6)
28. Dolphins (60.3)
29. Ravens (59.8)
30. Bengals (59.7)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Patriots at Saints (25.5 seconds)
2. Bears at Commanders (26.9 seconds)
3. Bengals at Packers (27.0 seconds)
4. 49ers at Buccaneers (27.2 seconds)
5. Seahawks at Jaguars (27.2 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

11. Lions at Chiefs (28.4 seconds)
12. Broncos vs. Jets (28.6 seconds)
t-13. Eagles at Giants (28.7 seconds)
t-13. Cardinals at Colts (28.7 seconds)
15. Bills at Falcons (29.7 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Cowboys at Panthers

Winds are forecasted at 15-16 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. That could impact some deep throws and kicks, but we're not adjusting projections here. The over/under on this game has dropped two points but is still sitting at a healthy 47.5.

Rams at Ravens

Similar forecast as Charlotte. Winds of 16-17 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. We could see that impact some deep throws and kicks, but it's not enough to adjust projections.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Packers vs. Bengals (+75.3%)
2. Patriots at Saints (+72.4%)
3. Rams at Ravens (+71.3%)
4. Broncos vs. Jets (+66.0%)
t-5. Seahawks at Jaguars (+57.2%)
t-5. Chargers at Dolphins (+57.2%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

26. Cardinals at Colts (-8.9%)
27. Giants vs. Eagles (-12.9%)
28. Titans at Raiders (-18.6%)
29. Browns at Steelers (-20.0%)
30. Bengals at Packers (-36.8%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jordan Love vs. Bengals (+66.8%)
2. Bryce Young vs. Cowboys (+63.3%)
3. Matt Stafford at Ravens (+49.0%)
4. Caleb Williams at Commanders (+30.4%)
5. Dillon Gabriel at Steelers (+27.5%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Cam Ward at Raiders (-18.4%)
27. Aaron Rodgers vs. Browns (-22.4%)
28. Jaxson Dart vs. Eagles (-22.6%)
29. Josh Allen at Falcons (-28.3%)
30. Jared Goff at Chiefs (-34.1%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Eagles at Giants (+18.8%)
2. Rams at Ravens (+6.9%)
3. Commanders vs. Bears (+3.6%)
4. Chargers at Dolphins (-1.3%)
5. Falcons vs. Bills (-3.0%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

26. Buccaneers vs. 49ers (-38.9%)
27. Steelers vs. Browns (-41.9%)
28 Bengals at Packers (-47.7%)
29. 49ers at Buccaneers (-51.0%)
30. Bears at Commanders (-52.2%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Panthers vs. Cowboys (+59.6%)
2. Raiders vs. Titans (+54.2%)
3. Rams at Ravens (+44.6%)
4. Eagles at Giants (+39.8%)
5. Packers vs. Bengals (+39.0%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed

26. Bears at Commanders (-21.5%)
27. Ravens vs. Rams (-23.7%)
28. Bengals at Packers (-32.9%)
29. Bills at Falcons (-38.5%)
30. Steelers vs. Browns (-39.8%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Panthers vs. Cowboys (+67.5%)
2. Seahawks at Jaguars (+41.8%)
3. Browns at Steelers (+38.7%)
4. Ravens vs. Rams (+38.6%)
5. Rams at Ravens (+33.5%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Bills at Falcons (-16.6%)
27. Jets vs. Broncos (-18.3%)
28. Lions at Chiefs (-22.1%)
29. Dolphins vs. Chargers (-28.9%)
30. Giants vs. Eagles (-30.5%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

Chiefs WRs Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown vs. Lions CBs Amik Robertson, Rock Ya-Sin, and Avonte Maddox

Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen vs. Dolphins CBs Jack Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Cornell Armstrong

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Colts CBs Charvarius Ward and Mekhi Blackmon

Patriots WR Stefon Diggs vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley

Broncos WR Troy Franklin vs. Jets CBs Brandon Stephens and Malachi Moore

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Bears WRs Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore vs. Commanders Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos

Lions WR Jameson Williams vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Bills WR Keon Coleman vs. Falcons CBs A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes

Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp vs. Jaguars CB Jourdan Lewis

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Broncos vs. Jets (+68.0%)
2. Packers vs. Bengals (+65.5%)
3. Broncos at Steelers (+53.5%)
4. Cardinals at Colts (+47.3%)
5. 49ers at Buccaneers (+47.3%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Titans at Raiders (-28.4%)
27. Lions at Chiefs (-28.9%)
28. Giants vs. Eagles (-30.3%)
29. Falcons vs. Bills (-54.5%)
30. Bills at Falcons (-64.1%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers vs. Browns (+421.7%)
2. Eagles at Giants (+120.0%)
3. Titans at Raiders (+90.6%)
4. Packers vs. Bengals (+77.1%)
5. Broncos vs. Jets (+72.6%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Seahawks at Jaguars (-50.7%)
27. Lions at Chiefs (-71.4%)
28. Panthers vs. Cowboys (-71.6%)
29. Chiefs vs. Lions (-80.3%)
30. Cardinals at Colts (-97.3%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Wil Lutz vs. Jets (+102.6%)
2. Joey Slye at Raiders (+39.3%)
3. Michael Badgley vs. Cardinals (+28.0%)
4. Matt Prater at Falcons (27.3%)
5. Joshua Karty at Ravens (+26.9%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Jason Myers at Jaguars (-23.3%)
27. Andre Szmyt at Steelers (-27.0%)
28. Chad Ryland at Colts (-29.7%)
29. Harrison Butker vs. Lions (-32.1%)
30. Chase McLaughlin vs. 49ers (-39.0%)

Next Up

TD Regression Watch: McCaffrey, Jacobs, And Mahomes About to Pop

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.