Week 6 Matchups That Matter: Big Bounce-Back Spot For 49ers

Welcome to Week 6’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 6 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 6!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Bills at Raiders (53.5)
2. Cowboys at Packers (53.0)
3. Cardinals at Rams (51.5)
4. Bears at Falcons (51.0)
5. Commanders at 49ers (50.5)

Lowest Game Totals

12. Seahawks at Broncos (40.5)
13. Panthers at Eagles (40.0)
14. Steelers at Buccaneers (39.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. Rams (32.0)
2. Bills (29.5)
3. 49ers (29.0)
4. Packers (27.25)
5. Bears (26.25)

Lowest Projected Points

24. Titans (18.75)
t-25. Buccaneers (18.5)
t-25. Browns (18.5)
27. Jets (18.0)
28. Chargers (17.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Rams (64.3)
2. Bears (64.2)
3. Cowboys (63.6)
4. Saints (63.3)
5. Patriots (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

22. Cardinals (60.6)
t-23. Buccaneers (60.5)
t-23. Browns (60.5)
25. Broncos (60.4)
26. Chargers (60.3)
27. Jets (59.8)
28. Titans (59.2) 

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Cowboys at Packers (27.35 seconds)
2. Panthers at Eagles (27.55 seconds)
3. Titans at Colts (27.8 seconds)
4. Bills at Raiders (28.2 seconds)
5. Cardinals at Rams (28.25 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

12. Ravens at Browns (30.45 seconds)
t-13. Texans at Jaguars (30.5 seconds)
t-13. Jets at Patriots (30.5 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 5 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Week 6 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. their opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 6 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Brock Purdy vs. Commanders (+73.7%)
2. Josh Allen at Raiders (+45.1%)
3. Kirk Cousins vs. Bills (+38.7%)
4. Matthew Stafford vs. Cardinals (+34.3%)
5. Jordan Love vs. Cowboys (+27.0%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

24. Aaron Rodgers at Buccaneers (-22.1%)
25. Patrick Mahomes vs. Chargers (-23.8%)
26. Drake Maye vs. Jets (-27.2%)
27. Geno Smith at Patriots (-31.6%)
28. Bo Nix vs. Seahawks (-36.1%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 5 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Week 6 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. their opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 6 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Packers vs. Cowboys (+31.1%)
2. Raiders vs. Bills (+22.4%)
3. Commanders at 49ers (+20.1%)
4. Titans at Colts (+19.3%)
5. Cowboys at Packers (+18.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

24. Rams vs. Cardinals (-17.7%)
25. Jaguars vs. Texans (-17.9%)
26. 49ers vs. Commanders (-18.2%)
27. Browns vs. Ravens (-18.6%)
28. Ravens at Browns (-20.1%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 6 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Raiders vs. Bills (+42.5%)
2. Jaguars vs. Texans (+24.5%)
3. Rams vs. Cardinals (+19.9%)
4. Texans vs. Jaguars (+19.7%)
5. 49ers vs. Commanders (+16.9%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

24. Patriots vs. Jets (-18.5%)
25. Chargers at Chiefs (-19.4%)
26. Steelers at Buccaneers (-22.4%)
27. Broncos vs. Seahawks (-23.6%)
28. Seahawks at Broncos (-29.2%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Cardinals CBs Max Melton, Denzel Burke, and Garrett Williams

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Packers CBs Brandon Cisse and Keisean Nixon

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Malik Muhammad

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Browns CB Myles Harden

Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Reddy Steward

Giants WRs Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields, and Darnell Mooney vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Eagles WRs DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks vs. Panthers CBs Akayleb Evans and Will Lee

49ers WR Mike Evans vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Rasul Douglas, and Amik Robertson

Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin vs. Steelers CBs Asante Samuel, Daylen Everette, and Jalen Ramsey

Titans WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Colts CB Justin Walley

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen

Cardinals WR Michael Wilson vs. Rams CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Broncos WRs Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nehemiah Pritchett

Titans WR Carnell Tate vs. Colts CBs Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 6 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best TE Matchups

1. 49ers vs. Commanders (+115.8%)
2. Chargers at Chiefs (+81.1%)
3. Bills at Raiders (+60.2%)
4. Eagles vs. Panthers (+54.0%)
5. Rams vs. Cardinals (+52.7%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

24. Jets at Patriots (-41.9%)
25. Commanders at 49ers (-47.7%)
26. Chiefs vs. Chargers (-47.9%)
27. Falcons vs. Bears (-48.1%)
28. Cardinals at Rams (-58.6%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 6 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Saints at Giants (+188.0%)
2. Bears at Falcons (+86.2%)
3. Chiefs vs. Chargers (+86.1%)
4. Colts vs. Titans (+65.7%)
5. Broncos vs. Seahawks (+65.3%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

24. Raiders vs. Bills (-48.8%)
25. Texans vs. Jaguars (-56.5%)
26. Packers vs. Cowboys (-62.5%)
27. Chargers at Chiefs (-66.7%)
28. Commanders at 49ers (-83.6%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best K Matchups

1. Drew Stevens at 49ers (+48.0%)
2. Spencer Shrader vs. Titans (+44.8%)
3. Chase McLaughlin vs. Steelers (+33.3%)
4. Chris Boswell at Buccaneers (+31.8%)
5. Cam Little vs. Texans (+28.7%)

5 Worst K Matchups

24. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Jaguars (-30.0%)
25. Jason Sanders at Patriots (-37.5%)
26. Nick Folk vs. Bears (-39.7%)
27. Daniel Carlson at Giants (-40.5%)
28. Brandon Aubrey at Packers (-52.0%)