The Patriots have agreed to terms on a three-year deal worth up to $33 million with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. The former Chief and Steeler is set to earn $22.5 million in guaranteed money over the first two years of the contract, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Smith-Schuster immediately steps into the mix with an offense that lost WR Jakobi Meyers (a recent signee with the Raiders) and has a lot of work cut out for them. It's tough to say how much fantasy value Smith-Schuster, or any pass-catcher in the Patriots' offense, will have under new OC Bill O'Brien as of now. Even so, there's only room for QB Mac Jones and company to move upward and improve upon their 23rd-ranked aerial attack in Football Outsiders' passing offense DVOA last season. Smith-Schuster logged an impressive 78 receptions and 933 receiving yards as a member of the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs in 2022. The Patriots have a long way to go in righting the ship, but this is a solid step in the right direction.
QB Aaron Rodgers announced on the Pat McAfee Show on Wednesday that he's agreed to a trade to the Jets. The enigmatic former NFL MVP immediately presents an upgrade over QB Zach Wilson and should make fantasy managers excited for what’s to come. Though Rodgers slipped in production last season, he finished 2020 and 2021 with a fantasy PPG average over 20. Much of his lack of success can be attributed to the departure of weapons like WR Davante Adams, but now Rodgers won’t have to worry about a lack of weapons in his supporting cast. WR Garrett Wilson is already considered a high-end dynasty asset, and his value is only further solidified by the presence of a stellar QB. The player this affects the most is WR Elijah Moore, who saw a great deal of controversy last season deriving from his frustrations with his role and poor play from Zach Wilson under center. We may see him look more like the WR3 overall in PPR scoring from Week 7 through Week 12 of his rookie season in 2021 if he can stave off new teammate WR Allen Lazard.
The Bills are expected to sign WR Deonte Harty to a two-year deal, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The contract will reportedly include $9.5 million total, with $5 million of that fully guaranteed. Incentives could push it to a $13.5 million max value. Those numbers don't guarantee a significant offensive role for Harty, who has done his best work as a return man. Harty collected 64 total receptions and 15 rushing attempts across four years with the Saints, compared with 152 total returns. He figures to push RB Nyheim Hines out of the primary return role. We'll see if Buffalo plans to let Harty compete with Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir for more on offense. If it does, Harty's speed would make him an intriguing late-round flier. You can consider him near the end of best ball drafts now for that reason.
The Panthers have agreed to a three-year deal with TE Hayden Hurst. The terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed. Hurst, a former NFL first-round pick, will be joining his fourth team since entering the league in 2018. At best, he's been a streaming TE consideration throughout his career. It's tough to say he'll have as much fantasy appeal going from a high-powered Bengals offense in 2022 to the Panthers with a rookie QB likely to be under center, though. This transition only hurts the value of Hurst even with diminished target competition. Dynasty managers are probably further ahead looking elsewhere to the 2023 rookie class or beyond if TE is a position of need. He may prove to be reasonably effective for redraft purposes if the Panthers don't add a ton of talent around him, though.
UPDATE: Hurst's contract is reportedly a three-year deal worth $21.75 million (with $13 million guaranteed).
The Buccaneers have reached a one-year, $8.5 million deal with QB Baker Mayfield, according to multiple reports. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport had previously talked about the Bucs bringing in Mayfield to compete with former second-round pick Kyle Trask for the starting job. We'd bet on Mayfield winning that competition. But the contract shows that they're not banking on him as a starter. Taylor Heinicke, for example, got a two-year contract worth up to $10 million a year from the Falcons. Mayfield played his way out of Carolina after his Cleveland exit. He gained some praise for the brief Rams stint but compiled just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a 3.1% TD rate there. Mayfield is far from a lock for any meaningful production going forward. But he's interesting as a QB3 pick late in best ball drafts right now, especially when paired with Tampa Bay WRs Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, or Russell Gage. Gage has been going especially late. So you can potentially pair him with Mayfield using just your final two picks. Not much risk at that point.
The Steelers have agreed to a three-year deal with LB Cole Holcomb, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The move should make Holcomb the playing-time leader among non-edge LBs in Pittsburgh. He showed that he can produce numbers with a top-10 fantasy finish among LBs in 2021. Holcomb lost half of last season to injury but still managed a top-30 ranking in points per game. He lands in a solid spot for statistical upside, though we'll see what else the Steelers add to a position of weakness.
The Lions and RB David Montgomery reached an agreement on a three-year, $18 million contract (with $11 million guaranteed) late on Tuesday evening. The long-time Bear will be moving across the NFC North and running behind a Lions offensive line that ranked 7th in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards in 2022. Montgomery is more than capable of shouldering a sizeable workload as well, as he's handled 200+ carries in each of his four professional seasons to date. A logical conclusion to draw from this signing is that free agent RB Jamaal Williams is unlikely to return to the Lions at this point. We'll keep an eye out for news regarding where he lands. Where this situation gets dicey is how it potentially affects RB D'Andre Swift, who posted a career-low in touches (147) in 2022 after battling through yet another season of nagging injuries. Couple this Montgomery contract with a subpar injury history, and we may be looking at a significant dynasty value loss for a former NFL second round pick in Swift. He's already starting to slip down our dynasty RB rankings.
The Chargers have granted RB Austin Ekeler permission to seek a trade, according to his agent. Ekeler and the Chargers haven't made much progress on extension talks, leading to the possibility of a split. Ekeler has 1 year left on his current deal at a very reasonable $7.75 million cap hit. He remained a fantasy monster last year, catching a career-high 107 passes and scoring 18 TDs. Ekeler earned a career-best 83.2 Pro Football Focus rushing grade (13th among 42 qualifiers) and ranked 3rd among 43 qualifiers in PFF receiving grade. It's tough to imagine a move out of Los Angeles helping his fantasy value -- but we also wouldn't expect a significant hit.
The Colts released QB Matt Ryan. The no-brainer move saves $17.2 million against the 2023 salary cap. Ryan has had a strong NFL career, but the soon-to-be 38-year-old's tank is clearly empty. He mustered just 6.6 yards per attempt with 14 TDs vs. 13 INTs in 12 outings this past season. We'll see if Ryan snags a backup job elsewhere, but he's well off the fantasy radar. The Colts are left with QBs Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger but figure to be eyeing the position with the 4th overall pick of next month's draft.
The Commanders released RB J.D. McKissic. The move saves just $1.3 million against the 2023 cap, so it's not much of a cost-cutting move. McKissic has suffered season-ending neck injuries the past 2 years and turns 30 in August. We'll see when and where he signs next, but McKissic is no more than an end-of-draft shot in PPR best-ball leagues.
The Panthers have reportedly agreed to a two-year, $10 million contract with QB Andy Dalton. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the deal includes $8 million in guaranteed money and that the contract could be worth up to $17 million in total. This deal makes a lot of sense for the Panthers as they're likely to take a young QB with the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft next month. Having an experienced player like Dalton there to serve as a mentor and aid in the development of whoever the franchise ultimately chooses to draft is a wise choice. Should HC Frank Reich choose to take his time with whichever rookie QB the team opts for, Dalton could feasibly be a decent bridge option for a few games as well. Dalton totaled 2,871 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 14 starts with the Saints in 2022. If nothing else, this means dynasty managers can justify holding onto their shares of Dalton.
The Broncos have agreed to a two-year, $7.5 million deal with RB Samaje Perine. This contract also includes an additional $1 million in potential incentives. Perine makes a lot of sense for the Broncos given the uncertain recovery timeline for RB Javonte Williams, who tore his ACL in Week 4 of 2022 vs. the Raiders. Even if Williams is able to recover in time to play a majority of the 2023 season, Perine stands to shoulder a decent amount of the rushing workload in a Sean Payton-led offense that historically uses a committee approach at RB. The Broncos have invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason as well, inking large contracts with T Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers so far. How much this move impacts fantasy will depend on the health of Williams, but this move is far from insignificant, especially if the Broncos don't spend any more on the RB position this offseason.
The Jets have agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal with WR Allen Lazard. The contract includes $22 million in guaranteed money. Lazard logged career-highs in receptions (60) and receiving yards (788) as the Packers' de facto WR1 in the absence of Davante Adams. This move carries a couple of pieces of impact. First, this signing is likely to effectively end WR Corey Davis' tenure with the Jets. Moving on from Davis would free up $10.5 million in cap space for the Jets. Second, Lazard being brought in signals that the franchise is continuing to appeal to the interests of QB Aaron Rodgers. Whether or not Rodgers ultimately becomes the Jets' next signal-caller, Lazard will have to battle with WR Garrett Wilson for targets and likely doesn't carry much appeal beyond being a WR3/WR4 for fantasy managers. Either way, this deal likely means more for real-life football than fantasy football.
The Eagles and RB Rashaad Penny have agreed to a one-year deal, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The former NFL first-round pick has struggled to stay healthy in his career, though he's shown the ability to be an effective fantasy RB when healthy. Penny has averaged over six yards per carry on 176 carries in 15 games over the last two seasons. Prior to succumbing to a fractured tibia in Week 5, Penny was the RB24 overall in PPR scoring with an 11.7 PPG average through the first month of the 2022 season. Should he stay healthy, Penny has an opportunity to thrive behind an Eagles offensive line that ranked 6th in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards in 2022. That said, the presence of QB Jalen Hurts does cap the upside of any RB in the Eagles' offense, particularly in the red zone. There's reason to like Penny as a dead zone RB in redraft this season. Moreover, if the Eagles don't address the RB room beyond this signing, RB Kenneth Gainwell becomes an incredibly appealing fantasy option as a bench stash. Gainwell, a former 4th-round pick in 2021, performed well down the stretch for the Eagles and would stand to inherit some hefty work should the oft-injured Penny find himself ailing again in 2023. This backfield will be scary if all goes well assuming health.
The Dolphins and RB Jeff Wilson Jr. have agreed to a two-year contract reportedly worth up to $8.2 million. This move is in correspondence with another deal struck earlier on Tuesday keeping his teammate Raheem Mostert in town, effectively making this Dolphins backfield the same as it was in 2022. Upon Wilson Jr.'s arrival via trade in Week 9, he and Mostert produced well in tandem. The two concluded the season ranking as the RB35 and RB33 overall in PPR scoring respectively in that stretch. That said, Wilson Jr. has more financial upside in his contract. If we're to give an edge to one over the other, you could logically follow the money and go with Wilson Jr. as the favorite. There's still room for the Dolphins to add to this RB room via the NFL Draft, but Wilson Jr. is the best bet to produce flex-level fantasy output with RB2 upside in a given week.
The Raiders have agreed to a trade sending TE Darren Waller to the Giants in exchange for a 2023 third round pick (100th overall). The pick Giants are sending was initially acquired via the midseason deal that sent WR Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs, thus marking the first fantasy-relevant contribution Toney has ever made for the team. The need to address pass-catchers around QB Daniel Jones stood atop the list of priorities for the Giants this offseason, and now Waller arguably becomes the best receiver on this team. Though hamstring injuries plagued Waller's 2022 campaign, we're not far removed from three-consecutive seasons of 90+ target and 12+ PPR PPG production from the former Pro Bowler. We'll see what the Giants do in the NFL Draft next month regarding the WR position, but as of now, we're looking at some fairly intriguing fantasy upside here from Waller.
Saints WR Michael Thomas is expected to remain with the team on a one-year deal, $10 million deal worth up to $16 million in incentives. Now Thomas will have an opportunity to get his career back on track with recently acquired QB Derek Carr. The oft-injured star wideout has only appeared in 10 games since 2019, a season in which he led the league in receptions (149) and receiving yards (1,725). It's justifiably fair for fantasy managers not to get overly excited about this news, but there's no doubting what Thomas is capable of at full strength. Maybe 2023 will finally be the year that the patience pays off.
The Dolphins are re-signing RB Raheem Mostert on a two-year, $5.6 million agreement, according to multiple reports. It's a bigger contract than the one-year, $2.125 million pact that brought Mostert in last season. But the annual average is similar. (ESPN's Adam Schefter adds that incentives give the contract a max value of $7.6 million.) Mostert opened last season splitting work with Chase Edmonds and finished it splitting with Jeff Wilson Jr. Despite that, Mostert tallied career highs in most categories while missing just one game. We're expecting further moves in the Miami backfield, which will affect Mostert's fantasy outlook. But he's a fine value right now at his late-round best ball ADP.
The Cowboys have agreed to a three-year deal with S Donovan Wilson that includes $24 million total and full guarantees on the first two years, according to NFL Network's Mike Garofolo. Wilson got his first chance at full-time starting duty last season -- his fourth in Dallas -- and racked up big numbers. He led all Cowboys with 101 tackles and led all NFL DBs with 5 sacks. Wilson ranked among the top 12 fantasy scorers at the position. The money locks him in for at least one more year of starting, and likely two. That makes Wilson worth keeping in dynasty leagues. And he'll almost certainly land a top-20 spot among DBs in our 2023 IDP rankings.
The Raiders will be signing WR Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $33 million deal, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The pact will reportedly include $21 million in guaranteed money. This fit seems somewhat odd. Meyers does reunite with HC Josh McDaniels, who served as New England's OC for three of Meyers' four seasons there. But the 26-year-old (until Nov. 9) wideout joins an offense that already sports WR Davante Adams, TE Darren Waller, and WR Hunter Renfrow with annual average salaries over $10 million. Meyers also ran 64.5% of his routes with the Patriots from the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. That's also Renfrow's primary position (69.7% of career routes; 86% in 2022). We're assuming Meyers will be the second wideout (with Adams) in two-WR alignments, which will keep Renfrow's ceiling down. Meyers likely could have found more target share available elsewhere. It is, at least, a solid corps of receivers for new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. That said, we're not excited for the fantasy outlook on the QB, Meyers, or Renfrow.
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