Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 9

 

Welcome to Week 9’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 9 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 9!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Total Points Per Game
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Cowboys at Falcons (52.0)
2. Dolphins at Bills (49.5)
3. Rams at Seahawks (48.0)
4. Lions at Packers (47.5)
t-5. Broncos at Ravens (46.5)
t-5. Colts at Vikings (46.5)

       

Lowest Game Totals

12. Saints at Panthers (43.5)
13. Texans at Jets (43.0)
14. Chargers at Browns (42.5)
15. Patriots at Titans (38.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

t-1. Bills (27.75)
t-1. Ravens (27.75)
3. Falcons (27.0)
4. Chiefs (27.25)
5. Eagles (26.75)
6. Bengals (26.5)

   

Lowest Implied Points

25. Jaguars (19.25)
26. Raiders (19.0)
27. Broncos (18.75)
t-28. Buccaneers (18.25)
t-28. Panthers (18.25)
30. Patriots (17.75)

        

Total Points Per Game

Who's playing in shootouts? Who's playing in low-scoring games?

Here's where every team ranks in points per game + points allowed per game. (I particularly like using this data when looking for games to stack in DFS.)

 

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Chiefs (65.3)
2. Eagles (65.2)
3. Ravens (63.8)
4. Cowboys (63.7)
t-5. Bears (63.5)
t-5. Saints (63.5)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

26. Jets (60.8)
27. Panthers (59.6)
28. Cardinals (59.3)
29. Patriots (59.0)
30. Jaguars (58.5)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Cowboys at Falcons (25.5 seconds)
2. Bears at Cardinals (26.0 seconds)
3. Dolphins at Bills (26.7 seconds)
4. Colts at Vikings (27.1 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

12. Raiders at Bengals (28.6 seconds)
13. Patriots at Titans (28.7 seconds)
14. Lions at Packers (28.7 seconds)
15. Chargers at Browns (29.1 seconds)

    

Weather Concerns

Lions at Packers

Rain is expected throughout this game, plus winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Those are tough conditions for the passing and kicking games. And it's especially concerning for QB Jordan Love, who will be playing through a groin injury.

    

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Eagles vs. Jaguars (+66.5%)
2. Ravens vs. Broncos (+56.6%)
3. Bills vs. Dolphins (+56.3%)
4. Commanders at Giants (+53.8%)
5. Vikings vs. Colts (+50.4%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

26. Colts at Vikings (-7.4%)
27. Patriots at Titans (-12.4%)
28. Panthers vs. Saints (-22.9%)
29. Dolphins at Bills (-23.3%)
30. Browns vs. Chargers (-41.4%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jalen Hurts vs. Jaguars (+71%)
2. Derek Carr at Panthers (+35%)
3. Gardner Minshew at Bengals (+33%)
4. Patrick Mahomes vs. Buccaneers (+30%)
5. Bo Nix at Ravens (+25%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

26. Kyler Murray vs. Bears (-15%)
27. C.J. Stroud at Jets (-15%)
28. Daniel Jones vs. Commanders (-15%)
29. Lamar Jackson vs. Broncos (-26%)
30. Josh Allen vs. Dolphins (-33%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Falcons vs. Cowboys (+14.6%)
2. Lions at Packers (+13.3%)
3. Bills vs. Dolphins (+10.7%)
4. Saints at Panthers (+5.8%)
5. Ravens vs. Broncos (+4.4%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

26. Broncos at Ravens (-29.9%)
27. Colts at Vikings (-30.5%)
28. Dolphins at Bills (-36.7%)
29. Jets vs. Texans (-43.1%)
30. Patriots at Titans (-46.9%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Saints at Panthers (+47%)
2. Eagles vs. Jaguars (+28%)
3. Dolphins at Bills (+22%)
4. Bengals vs. Raiders (+22%)
5. Titans vs. Patriots (+19%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Chargers at Browns (-15%)
27. Colts at Vikings (-16%)
28. Jets vs. Texans (-19%)
29. Packers vs. Lions (-29%)
30. Buccaneers at Chiefs (-48%)

   

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Eagles vs. Jaguars (+47%)
2. Broncos at Ravens (+33%)
3. Colts at Vikings (+26%)
4. Packers vs. Lions (+19%)
5. Chiefs vs. Buccaneers (+17%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Cardinals vs. Bears (-16%)
27. Patriots at Titans (-19%)
28. Buccaneers at Chiefs (-20%)
29. Bills vs. Dolphins (-20%)
30. Ravens vs. Broncos (-22%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Falcons CB Dee Alford

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Jaguars CBs Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown, and Jarrian Jones

Giants WRs Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Mike Sainristil, and Noah Igbinoghene

Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson

Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown vs. Giants CBs Nick McCloud, Greg Stroman, and Andru Phillips

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed vs. Lions CBs Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, and Amik Robertson

Chargers WRs Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and Ladd McConkey vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Bills CBs Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon

Falcons WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs, Caelen Carson, and Jourdan Lewis

Ravens WRs Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Diontae Johnson vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Texans WR Tank Dell vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Jaguars WRs Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, and Parker Washington vs. Eagles CBs Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Rams CB Josh Wallace

Buccaneers WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams

       

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Rams at Seahawks (+58%)
2. Lions at Packers (+56%)
3. Saints at Panthers (+38%)
4. Eagles at Jaguars (+36%)
5. Vikings vs. Colts (+35%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Chargers at Browns (-24%)
27. Commanders at Giants (-31%)
28. Packers vs. Lions (-32%)
29. Jaguars at Eagles (-33%)
30. Jets vs. Texans (-40%)

   

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers at Browns (+163%)
2. Bills vs. Dolphins (+109%)
3. Panthers vs. Saints (+98%)
4. Bengals vs. Raiders (+93%)
5. Patriots at Titans (+80%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

26. Jets vs. Texans (-42%)
27. Dolphins at Bills (-53%)
28. Packers vs. Lions (-54%)
29. Giants vs. Commanders (-65%)
30. Broncos at Ravens (-74%)

    

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 9 Streaming DSTs.

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Brandon Aubrey at Falcons (+55%)
2. Tyler Bass vs. Dolphins (+49%)
3. Joey Slye at Titans (+44%)
4. Eddy Pineiro vs. Saints (+29%)
5. Younghoo Koo vs. Cowboys (+28%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

26. Jason Sanders at Bills (-19%)
27. Jake Bates at Packers (-21%)
28. Justin Tucker vs. Broncos (-30%)
29. Dustin Hopkins vs. Chargers (-45%)
30. Matt Gay at Vikings (-47%)