Welcome to Week 11’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 11 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 11!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Cowboys at Raiders (49.5)
t-2. Bengals at Steelers (48.5)
t-2. 49ers at Cardinals (48.5)
t-2. Seahawks at Rams (48.5)
5. Bears at Vikings (48.0)
6. Commanders at Dolphins (47.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-10. Jets at Patriots (43.5)
t-10. Chargers at Jaguars (43.5)
12. Packers at Giants (42.5)
13. Panthers at Falcons (41.5)
14. Ravens at Browns (38.5)
15. Texans at Titans (37.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Patriots (28.0)
2. Steelers (27.0)
t-3. Bills (26.5)
t-3. Cowboys (26.5)
5. 49ers (26.0)
6. Rams (25.75)

Fewest Projected Points

26. Panthers (19.5)
27. Giants (17.75)
28. Titans (16.0)
t-29. Browns (15.5)
t-29. Jets (15.5)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Cowboys (64.0)
2. Bengals (63.9)
3. Rams (63.8)
t-4. 49ers (63.7)
t-4. Chargers (63.7)

Fewest Projected Plays

t-25. Vikings (60.8)
t-25. Ravens (60.8)
27. Eagles (60.5)
28. Commanders (60.0)
29. Jets (59.4)
30. Titans (58.7) 

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Packers at Giants (26.7 seconds)
2. Bengals at Steelers (27.0 seconds)
3. Cowboys at Raiders (27.2 seconds)
4. Chiefs at Broncos (27.4 seconds)
5. 49ers at Cardinals (27.8 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

11. Commanders at Dolphins (29.3 seconds)
12. Ravens at Browns (29.4 seconds)
13. Texans at Titans (29.9 seconds)
14. Lions at Eagles (30.1 seconds)
15. Buccaneers at Bills (31.1 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Packers at Giants

Sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts between 30-40 mph. That's enough to likely impact play-calling, as well as deep throws and longer kicks. We're downgrading both passing games in this one and would avoid both kickers. The over/under in this game has dipped from 43.5 on Thursday to 42.5.

Bengals at Steelers

Winds forecasted at 15-20 mph with gusts around 30-35 mph. That figures to impact some long passes and kicks, although it's worth noting that the over/under on this game has held steady at 48.5. We're not adjusting projections in this one but might shy away from Ks Chris Boswell and Evan McPherson.

Buccaneers at Bills

Sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 35. There's a chance for a rain/snow mix, but the wind is the concern here. The over/under on this game has dropped from 48.5 on Thursday to 46.5. We're docking the passing projections on both sides and would avoid the kickers.

Ravens at Browns

Sustained winds around 25 mph with gusts between 30-35 mph. That figures to impact play-calling, as well as deep throws and longer kicks. Hopefully you weren't relying too heavily on Cleveland's passing game here, although TEs Harold Fannin and David Njoku could be ok as short-range targets. We're downgrading Baltimore's passing game, but QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, and TE Mark Andrews remain fine fantasy starts. Avoid the kickers in this game.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Patriots vs. Jets (+84.6%)
2. Seahawks at Rams (+57.9%)
3. Steelers vs. Bengals (+46.8%)
4. Commanders vs. Dolphins (+44.5%)
5. Packers at Giants (+41.5)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

26. Giants vs. Packers (+4.1%)
27. Jaguars vs. Chargers (-2.9%)
28. Browns vs. Ravens (-22.5%)
29. Panthers at Falcons (-31.0%)
30. Titans vs. Texans (-51.0%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Lamar Jackson at Browns (-19.7%)
27. Baker Mayfield at Bills (-21.8%)
28. Trevor Lawrence vs. Chargers (-23.3%)
29. Patrick Mahomes at Broncos (-32.6%)
30. Cam Ward vs. Texans (-34.8%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Steelers vs. Bengals (+15.1%)
2. Packers at Giants (+11.0%)
3. Panthers at Falcons (-1.1%)
4. Bengals at Steelers (-1.5%)
5. Jaguars vs. Chargers (-2.6%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

26. Eagles vs. Lions (-26.9%)
27. Seahawks at Rams (-27.8%)
28. Patriots vs. Jets (-28.3%)
29. Titans vs. Texans (-34.0%)
30. Ravens at Browns (-34.8%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Giants vs. Packers (-19.7%)
27. Jets at Patriots (-20.3%)
28. Eagles vs. Lions (-24.9%)
29. Seahawks at Rams (-26.6%)
30. Ravens at Browns (-28.2%)

Wide Receiver

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Falcons vs. Panthers (-17.6%)
27. Broncos vs. Chiefs (-18.7%)
28. Jaguars vs. Chargers (-18.8%)
29. Titans vs. Texans (-25.2%)
30. Chiefs at Broncos (-27.2%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor vs. Bears CBs Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson

Dolphins WRs Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington vs. Commanders CBs Trey Amos, Jonathan Jones, and Mike Sainristil

Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen vs. Jaguars CBs Greg Newsome, Montaric Brown, and Jarrian Jones

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Lions CBs Amik Robertson, Rock Ya-Sin, and Arthur Maulet

Bears WRs Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore vs. Vikings CBs Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and Josh Metellus

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel vs. Dolphins CBs Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jack Jones, and JuJu Brents

Raiders WR Tre Tucker vs. Cowboys CBs Kaiir Elam, DaRon Bland, and Reddy Steward

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Nick Emmanwori

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Eagles CBs Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell

Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy vs. Broncos CBs Ja'Quan McMillan, Riley Moss, and Kris Abrams-Draine

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Bengals CBs D.J. Turner and Cam Taylor-Britt

Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Packers CB Javon Bullard

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin vs. Chiefs CBs Jaylen Watson, Nohl Williams, and Trent McDuffie

Titans WR Elic Ayomanor vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Tight End

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Titans vs. Texans (-26.8%)
27. Cowboys at Raiders (-28.3%)
28. Lions at Eagles (-39.9%)
29. Panthers at Falcons (-47.8%)
30. Buccaneers at Bills (-53.6%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ravens at Browns (+98.1%)
2. Texans at Titans (+74.7%)
3. 49ers at Cardinals (+72.1%)
4. Bears at Vikings (+68.0%)
5. Falcons vs. Panthers (+64.9%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Broncos vs. Chiefs (-48.2%)
27. Raiders vs. Cowboys (-48.4%)
28. Giants vs. Packers (-52.6%)
29. Seahawks at Rams (-53.2%)
30. Eagles vs. Lions (-67.4%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Jake Bates at Eagles (+46.5%)
2. Andres Borregales vs. Jets (+40.2%)
3. Brandon McManus at Giants (+19.3%)
4. Andre Szmyt vs. Ravens (+19.2%)
5. Evan McPherson at Steelers (+18.7%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

26. Wil Lutz vs. Chiefs (-24.2%)
27. Jake Elliott vs. Lions (-28.3%)
28. Cameron Dicker at Jaguars (-34.6%)
29. Harrison Mevis vs. Seahawks (-34.8%)
30. Joey Slye vs. Texans (-50.6%)