Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is "healed up," owner Jim Irsay said Monday on The Pat McAfee Show. Taylor underwent right-ankle surgery early in the offseason to address a lingering issue. He missed offseason workouts, but it sounds like he'll be ready to roll come training camp. We'll keep an eye on Taylor throughout the summer, but that ankle shouldn't impact his 2023 fantasy value.
Bengals HC Zac Taylor has been impressed by how quickly TE Irv Smith has settled into the offense. "Forget about the talent. He's a talented guy. We knew that's what we've seen on tape so that didn't surprise me in anyway," Taylor said. "But I think just how quickly he's integrated himself has been really impressive. That's the most impressive thing about Irv is how quickly he's picked everything up and even taken on the nuances." Smith has a clear path to the starting job in Cincinnati, with only Drew Sample and Devin Asiasi as "competition." The former second-round pick has disappointed through three NFL seasons but turns just 25 in August. The Bengals' high-scoring offense gives Smith a good shot to jumpstart his career. He's an intriguing upside TE2 target late in fantasy drafts.
Lions QB coach Mark Brunell gave a progress update on rookie Hendon Hooker. Hooker recently said he’s “progressing really well” in his left ACL rehab. "If he didn't have [a great work ethic], he wouldn't be here. He's a smart player, puts the time in. The most important thing is him getting strong and healthy," Brunell told The Detroit News. "But I'm really pleased with him. As far as the meetings are concerned, we throw a bunch of questions at those rookies and try to put them in a tough spot. And he always does a very good job, and it's very clear that he's putting the time in." Hooker remains a dynasty stash.
Saints WR Chris Olave is a tough nut to crack regarding his 2023 outlook. Olave finished as the WR27 in PPR points per game and ranked 21st among all WRs in target share as a rookie last season, garnering 25.6% of Saints targets over his 15 games. His 2.42 yards per route also ranked seventh among 80 WRs with 50+ targets in 2022. It’s clear that Olave made the best of his team situation and can produce at a high level. The issue is, how much better can he be? New QB Derek Carr is a likely upgrade, but he isn’t a strong deep-ball passer. According to PFF, Carr’s 39.4% adjusted completion rate ranked just 24th among 36 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield) last year. Dalton ranked 34th by contrast. This is an important factor considering 23.7% of Olave’s targets last year were 20+ yard deep shots. A healthy WR Michael Thomas could also be an issue in 2023, though Olave’s target share was slightly higher over the first three weeks of last season when Thomas was healthy than it was from Week 4 on without him. We expect Olave to have a strong sophomore season, though we’re cautious. See where he stands in our current WR rankings.
Broncos TE Greg Dulcich revamped his offseason workout plan "with a focus on increased flexibility," according to The Athletic's Nick Kosmider. The hope is that'll solve the hamstring problems that Dulcich dealt with throughout his rookie season. (Check out Dulcich's full injury history.) When he was healthy last year, Dulcich scored as a top-10 fantasy TE. With better health -- and a likely improved Denver offense under new HC Sean Payton -- Dulcich has breakout potential in 2023.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf underwhelmed last year, finishing 24th among WRs in PPR points per game and 29th in non-PPR. Blame bad TD luck. Metcalf scored a career-low six times on a career-low 6.7% TD rate. He found the end zone on 13.4% of his receptions over his first three seasons. And it wasn't for lack of opportunity last year. Metcalf ranked second among WRs with 27 red-zone targets, sixth in targets inside the 10-yard line, and first in end-zone targets. He's a safe bet for more TDs in 2023 -- and potentially A LOT more TDs. We currently project Metcalf for 8.2 scores.
Beat writer Bill Huber believes the Packers “might want to lean more on [Aaron] Jones” in 2023. Huber cites the transition to QB Jordan Love and the trust from HC Matt LaFleur. “[I] can’t say enough great things about him, just the man he is, the player he is, the son he is, the father he is,” LaFleur said of Jones last month. “He’s definitely, I’ll throw it out there... he’s one of my favorites.” Jones, who turns 29 in December, played all 17 games last season. He approached a career-high with 272 touches and did set a personal best in Pro Football Focus rushing grade (91.0, 2nd-best among RBs). Current Draft Sharks projections have the Packers at a balanced 54% pass rate; 46% run rate. Jones checks in as a top-20 option on the RB rankings.
Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.football reports that Saints RB Alvin Kamara has agreed to plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge stemming from his 2022 Las Vegas incident. Underhill adds that "the felony charge is going away." That doesn't necessarily tell us what to expect in terms of league suspension. But the lightening of charges can't be bad news for Kamara's NFL penalty. And the plea deal should help speed up the league's decision. Kamara has been going in low-RB3 range of best ball drafts, which has made him a value -- albeit with the risk of uncertainty. We'll keep updating his projection in our rankings as more becomes clear.
NFL analyst Greg Cosell believes Giants QB Daniel Jones will improve in 2023. “He throws a good ball… He’s big, and he’s physical. I’m expecting him to take another step forward,” Cosell said on the Inside the Birds podcast. “I’ve heard really good things about how smart he is, how he works at it. You have to believe he’s going to take another step within the context of the [HC] Brian Daboll/[OC] Mike Kafka offense.” It’s a reminder that Jones, only 26, can reach higher ceiling. Led by TE Darren Waller, an improved set of weapons only adds to Jones’ 2023 fantasy value. You’ll find him among the top-15 of our QB rankings.
Saints insider Nick Underhill believes RB Kendre Miller will rush for over 500 yards in 2023. In the words of Underhill: “Even if Alvin [Kamara] doesn’t miss time…I think he’s going to force his way on the field…. I think he’s going to earn snaps.” Miller is coming off a meniscus injury, but RB coach Joel Thomas believes the 21-year-old will be a full participant come training camp. Saints rookies report to training camp in one week.
Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has already cracked the top 12 QBs in Underdog Fantasy ADP. Drafters are obviously chasing his rushing upside, and he'll need big ground production to deliver for fantasy. There have been seven rookie-QB seasons in NFL history that would have ranked among last year's top 12 QB scores. That group had a median of 34.0 rushing yards per game (578 yards over a 17-game season) and a median of 234.8 passing yards per game. All seven of those rookie QBs averaged at least 213.3 passing yards per game. That would obviously be an easier level for Richardson to reach right away. And he's capable of smashing that 34-yard rushing benchmark. Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all exceeded 50 rushing yards per game in 2022. Colts owner Jim Irsay recently reiterated that the team won't be scared to play Richardson early. The rookie doesn't sit as high in our 2023 fantasy football rankings as he does in Underdog ADP. But he certainly has the upside to deliver QB1-level production. Read more about his upside (and downside) in our Richardson profile.
Bills RB coach Kelly Skipper gave his assessment of 2nd-year RB James Cook. “Big jump (from first to second year),” Skipper said. “I see it in the classroom. You can see he’s taking control of the playbook. If I ask a question, he’s the first one to answer, where before, he was just really learning. He got that experience, and you saw how much better he got toward the end of the year.” We’ll see how Buffalo breaks down first-team reps at training camp between Cook and Damien Harris. Overall, look for this backfield to see a small uptick in volume. Per beat writer Ryan O’Halloran, the expectation is that the Bills will reduce Josh Allen’s rushing load. (Allen handled nearly 30% of Buffalo’s carries in 2022.) Visit our fantasy football RB rankings to see backfield expectations.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa enters Year 4 looking to build off a breakout 2022. He tallied four top-six fantasy finishes, a number that might have been higher if not for several concussions. Overall, Tua benefited from the dynamic pairing of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – plus the scheme of new HC Mike McDaniel. Credit McDaniel for truly emphasizing a Hill–Waddle duo that combined for a 51.2% target share. Tua also ranked 5th in RPO pass attempts; 3rd in play-action throws. 2023 turns up even more speed following the arrival of RB Devon Achane. While we’d still like to see O-line improvement, Tua’s ultimately positioned for a top-12 fantasy season. See exactly where he sits in the QB rankings.
Colts owner Jim Irsay hinted on Monday that his team plans to get rookie QB Anthony Richardson on the field early. "We know it’s going to be tough. But he has to play to get better," Irsay said on the Pat McAfee Show. "There’s no question. Gardner [Minshew] could play better early on, him just being a veteran. But we have to get Anthony on the field." Irsay added that HC Shane Steichen will ultimately decide when Richardson takes over as the starter. But Steichen had a similar message back in April, saying, "the development of players comes with more experience." We just bumped Richardson's projection up to 14 games played -- and that might still be conservative. His rushing ability gives him obvious QB1 upside whenever he takes the field.
Broncos QB Russell Wilson is coming off a tough 2022. He averaged just 235 passing yards and 1.1 TDs across his 15 games and posted career lows in completion rate, PFF passing grade, and his 7.3 yards per attempt was his second-worst mark among 11 NFL seasons. But don’t forget about how much the Broncos improved this offseason. The team spent big money on RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers in free agency and brought in former Saints HC Sean Payton to help right the ship. Plus, fantasy managers did see a slight bounce back from Wilson after the team fired HC Nathaniel Hackett, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game between Week 17-18. We feel that Wilson can be a quality QB2 in lineups this season. See where he comes out in our current QB rankings.
It's easy to be wary of Titans RB Derrick Henry in fantasy football. The 29-year-old exceeded 300 carries three of the past four years. The player aging curves that guide our dynasty projections say RBs see a bigger production drop-off at this age than any other position -- even among elite types. It would be quite abnormal for Henry to continue producing strong numbers. But Henry has always been abnormal, even among high-end NFL rushers. More importantly, he didn't show signs of decline last year. Henry actually improved his yards after contact per attempt, elusive rating, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade vs. his 2021 numbers. His rushing yards over expected rebounded from 0.05 per attempt in 2021 to 0.45 last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, despite a weak Tennessee offense and average O-line. Henry also did all of this despite seeing 8+ defenders in the box at the league's second-highest rate among RBs. The Titans drafted RB Tyjae Spears in Round 3 and might push some work his way. But we expect Henry to remain the workhorse in a run-favoring offense with an aging QB and mostly questionable pass catchers. Best of all, Henry's early ADP (late in Round 2, often into Round 3 in best ball drafts) lowers the risk to betting on him in fantasy. See how Henry's spot in our fantasy football rankings compares.
ESPN's Kevin Seifert writes that "all evidence suggests" that the Vikings will use RB Alexander Mattison "in the same every-down role that [Dalvin] Cook performed last season in coach Kevin O'Connell's offense." Cook played 72% of Minnesota's offensive snaps last year, averaging 15.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He ranked 12th among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 14th in actual PPR points per game. Mattison will return a nice profit for fantasy teams if he approximates that role. Seifert also believes that RB Ty Chandler is the favorite for the #2 job, ahead of RBs Kene Nwangwu and DeWayne McBride.
ESPN’s Jamison Hensley believes the Ravens “could” field a top-5 O-line in 2023. This unit features three former first-round picks, including LT Ronnie Stanley, C Tyler Linderbaum, and RG Kevin Zeitler. Baltimore should be in fine shape as long as Zeitler (age 33) and RT Morgan Moses (32) remain above-average starters. However, LG is one spot to watch in camp after the offseason loss of Ben Powers. (Powers was Pro Football Focus’ second highest graded guard in 2022.) Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, John Simpson, and Patrick Mekari look like the top candidates to fill in. View our fantasy football rankings to see expectations for key Ravens like Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and others.
Texans beat writer Aaron Wilson believes QB C.J. Stroud is off to a “fast start” in Houston. Per Wilson, Stroud has enjoyed “a smooth experience while absorbing offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s 49ers-centric playbook, building timing, and chemistry with his receivers.” Barring a major surprise, the second-overall pick will start Week 1 at Baltimore. Still, Stroud should only factor into your superflex strategy on draft day.
ESPN analyst Matt Bowen expects the Ravens to play at a faster pace this season. That wasn’t the case last year; Baltimore ranked bottom-5 in plays per minute (1.63) and no-huddle rate (4.4%). “They decided last year under [OC Greg] Roman they were going to control tempo by slowing it down,” Bowen said. “[It was] a lot more condensed formations; they had much different personnel than you’ll see this year. [Fullback] Patrick Ricard last year played a critical role in that offense; I don’t know that he has a pivotal role this year with what I expect to see out of Monken." Bowen, a former NFL safety, shared more on his forecast for the 2023 Ravens. “This year, and I have old playbooks of Todd Monken, is a lot more spread, a lot more trips, a lot more empty," he continued. "What they’re trying to do with pace of play is to be more aggressive and control tempo in terms of creating more tempo.” We detailed more of Monken’s impact in a new article on NFL Coaching Changes. Overall, we’re bullish on this offense making considerable improvements.
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